Prediction epidemiology

This research evaluated the relationship between daily new Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) concentrations in wastewater, followed by effects of differential SARS-CoV-2 shedding loads across various COVID-19 outbreaks. Linear regression analyses were utilized to examine the lead time of the SARS-CoV-2 signal in wastewater relative to new COVID-19 clinical cases. During the Delta wave, no lead time was evident, highlighting limited predictive capability of wastewater monitoring during this phase...

INTRODUCTION: The risk of diabetes begins at a lower BMI among Asian adults. This study compares the prevalence of diabetes between the U.S. and China by BMI. METHODS: Data from the 2015-2017 China Nutrition and Health Surveillance ( n =176,223) and the 2015-2018 U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey ( n =4,464) were used. Diagnosed diabetes was self-reported. Undiagnosed diabetes was no report of diagnosed diabetes and fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL or HbA1c ≥6...

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to explore the disease burden caused by gallbladder and biliary tract cancer globally, regionally, and nationally, by age and sex. METHODS: The absolute number of cases and age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to gallbladder and biliary tract cancer were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We estimated the trends in disease burden by calculating the percentage change in the absolute number of cases and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASR, by social development index (SDI), region, nation, sex, and age...

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) poses a significant threat to public health, and the anticipated surge of over 100% in the age-standardized prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Iran between 2021 and 2050 underscores the pressing need for focused attention. The rationale for estimating the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Iran becomes even more compelling when considering the potential cascading effects on the healthcare system, quality of life, and economic burden. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and trends of DM from 1996 to 2023 in the Islamic Republic of Iran...

OBJECTIVES: Over-the-counter (OTC) antibiotic use can cause antibiotic resistance, threatening global public health gains. To counter OTC use, this study used machine learning (ML) methods to identify predictors of OTC antibiotic use in rural Pune, India. METHODS: The features of OTC antibiotic use were selected using stepwise logistic, lasso, random forest, XGBoost, and Boruta algorithms. Regression and tree-based models with all confirmed and tentatively important features were built to predict the use of OTC antibiotics...

Metabolomic age models have been proposed for the study of biological aging, however, they have not been widely validated. We aimed to assess the performance of newly developed and existing nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) metabolomic age models for prediction of chronological age (CA), mortality, and age-related disease. Ninety-eight metabolic variables were measured in blood from nine UK and Finnish cohort studies (N ≈31,000 individuals, age range 24-86 years). We used nonlinear and penalized regression to model CA and time to all-cause mortality...

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has had wide-reaching effects on healthcare services beyond the direct treatment of the pandemic. Most current studies have reported changes in realised service usage, but the dynamics of how patients engage with healthcare services are less well understood. We analysed the effects of COVID-19 on healthcare bookings and cancellations for various service channels between January 2020 and July 2021. METHODS: Our data includes 7.3 million bookings, 11...

BACKGROUND: Workplace challenges can negatively affect employees and the organization. Resilience improves work-related outcomes like engagement, satisfaction, and performance. Gaps exist in studying resilience at work, particularly in relation to engagement and satisfaction. Therefore, this study aims to investigate relationship between Resilience at Work, Work Engagement and Job Satisfaction among engineers in an Egyptian Oil and Gas Company. METHODS: It was a cross-sectional study...

BACKGROUND: Invasive micropapillary carcinoma (IMPC) of the breast is known for its high propensity for lymph node (LN) invasion. Inadequate LN dissection may compromise the precision of prognostic assessments. This study introduces a log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) method to address this issue and develops a novel LODDS-based nomogram to provide accurate prognostic information. METHODS: The study analyzed data from 1,901 patients with breast IMPC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database...

This investigation aimed to explore the prognostic factors in elderly patients with unresected gastric cancer (GC) who have received chemotherapy and to develop a nomogram for predicting their cancer-specific survival (CSS). Elderly gastric cancer patients who have received chemotherapy but no surgery in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database between 2004 and 2015 were included in this study. Cox analyses were conducted to identify prognostic factors, leading to the formulation of a nomogram...

Dispersal evolution modifies diverse spatial processes, such as range expansions or biological invasions of single species, but we are currently lacking a realistic vision for metacommunities. Focusing on antagonistic species interactions, we review existing theory of dispersal evolution between natural enemies, and explain how this might be relevant for classic themes in host-parasite evolutionary ecology, namely virulence evolution or local adaptation. Specifically, we highlight the importance of considering the simultaneous (co)evolution of dispersal and interaction traits...

PURPOSE: Traumatic brain injury (TBI), currently a major global public health problem, imposes a significant economic burden on society and families. We aimed to quantify and predict the incidence and severity of TBI by analyzing its incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs). The epidemiological changes in TBI from 1990 to 2019 were described and updated to provide a reference for developing prevention, treatment, and incidence-reducing measures for TBI. METHODS: A secondary analysis was performed on the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of TBI by sex, age group, and region (n = 21,204 countries and territories) between 1990 and 2019 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019...

PURPOSE: Hip osteoarthritis (OA) is a major cause of pain and disability worldwide. Lack of effective therapies may reflect poor knowledge on its aetiology and risk factors, and result in the management of end-stage hip OA with costly joint replacement. The Worldwide Collaboration on OsteoArthritis prediCtion for the Hip (World COACH) consortium was established to pool and harmonise individual participant data from prospective cohort studies. The consortium aims to better understand determinants and risk factors for the development and progression of hip OA, to optimise and automate methods for (imaging) analysis, and to develop a personalised prediction model for hip OA...

Members of the Orthonairovirus genus (family Nairoviridae) include many tick-borne viruses of significant human and animal health impact, with several recently-documented pathogenic viruses lacking sufficient epidemiological information. We screened 215 adult ticks of seven species collected in Bulgaria, Georgia, Latvia and Poland for orthonairoviruses, followed by nanopore sequencing (NS) for genome characterization. Initial generic amplification revealed Sulina virus (SULV, Orthonairovirus sulinaense), for which an updated amplification assay was used, revealing an overall prevalence of 2...

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes severe infections in infants, immunocompromised or elderly individuals resulting in annual epidemics of respiratory disease. Currently, limited clinical surveillance and the lack of predictable seasonal dynamics limits the public health response. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has recently been used globally as a key metric in determining prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the community but its application to other respiratory viruses is limited. In this study, we present an integrated genomic WBE approach, applying RT-qPCR and partial G-gene sequencing to track RSV levels and variants in the community...

PURPOSE: The aim of our work is to describe the characteristics of Early Onset Absence Epilepsy (EOAE) and to observe whether specific anamnestic, clinical or electroencephalographic characteristics can influence the drug sensitivity of this pathology. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective study of patients affected by absence epilepsy with onset under four years of age, born between January 1st 2000 and December 31st 2018, who were reffered to the Regional Epilepsy Center of Spedali Civili of Brescia...

The COVID-19 outbreak led governmental officials to close many businesses and schools, including colleges and universities. Thus, the ability to resume normal campus operation required adoption of safety measures to monitor and respond to COVID-19. The objective of this study was to determine the efficacy of wastewater-based epidemiology as a surveillance method in monitoring COVID-19 on a college campus. The use of wastewater monitoring as part of a surveillance program to control COVID-19 outbreaks at East Carolina University was evaluated...

Self-reported weight and height serve as important metrics in estimating overweight and obesity prevalence within epidemiological studies, primarily due to their cost and time efficiency. However, the accuracy and reliability of these self-reported measures remain controversial, with conflicting reports emerging from different regions. This study aims to compare self-reported weight and height with measured values among young female adults in the United Arab Emirates. A cross-sectional study of 131 female university students aged 17-27 reported their weight and height on a self-administered questionnaire and on the same day had their height and weight measured...

Background: This study aimed to investigate the association between absolute grip strength (AGS), relative grip strength (RGS) levels, and the risk of developing diabetes in middle-aged adults, utilizing longitudinal data. Methods: A total of 1935 participants, 51-81 years of age, were engaged in surveys both in 2017-2018 and during the subsequent follow-up survey in 2019-2020. Diabetes diagnosis and treatment were the criteria for categorizing individuals as "diabetic." Grip strength was measured using the JAMA-5030J1 equipment (SAEHAN, Korea), and AGS and RGS were also categorized into tertiles by gender...

BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease and a major public health problem worldwide. Most primary infections with the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are inapparent; nevertheless, prior research has primarily focused on symptomatic infections, which has limited our understanding of the epidemiological burden and spectrum of disease of each DENV serotype. Our study addresses this bottleneck in dengue research by providing a new method and a detailed examination of primary inapparent infections...