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Prediction epidemiology

Juncheng Lyu, Yingying Wang, Hong Shi, Jie Zhang
OBJECTIVE: This study was to explore the main influencing factors of attempted suicide and establish an early warning model, so as to put forward prevention strategies for attempted suicide. METHOD: Data came from a large-scale case-control epidemiological survey. A sample of 659 serious suicide attempters was randomly recruited from 13 rural counties in China. Each case was matched by a community control for gender, age, and residence location. Face to face interviews were conducted for all the cases and controls with the same structured questionnaire...
June 5, 2018: Journal of Affective Disorders
Rosa M Crum, Kerry M Green, Elizabeth A Stuart, Lareina N La Flair, Marc Kealhofer, Andrea S Young, Noa Krawczyk, Kayla N Tormohlen, Carla L Storr, Anika A H Alvanzo, Ramin Mojtabai, Lauren R Pacek, Bernadette A Cullen, Beth A Reboussin
INTRODUCTION: Although prior clinical and population-based studies have demonstrated comorbidity between mood and alcohol use disorders (AUD), there is a paucity of research assessing whether mood disorders predict transition across stages of alcohol involvement. METHOD: Hypothesizing that mood disorders predict transition across sex-specific alcohol involvement stages, we used prospective data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC), a nationally representative survey of US adults, which included male (n = 14,564) and female (n = 20,089) participants surveyed in 2001-2 and re-interviewed in 2004-5...
April 10, 2018: Drug and Alcohol Dependence
Yu Zhang, Deng Chen, Da Xu, Ge Tan, Ling Liu
PURPOSE: To explore the applicability of the epidemiology-based mortality score in status epilepticus (EMSE) and the status epilepticus severity score (STESS) in predicting hospital mortality in patients with status epilepticus (SE) in western China. Furthermore, we sought to compare the abilities of the two scales to predict mortality from convulsive status epilepticus (CSE) and non-convulsive status epilepticus (NCSE). METHOD: Patients with epilepsy (n = 253) were recruited from the West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2012 to January 2016...
May 25, 2018: Seizure: the Journal of the British Epilepsy Association
Melissa Maritz, Carla Mt Fourie, Johannes M VAN Rooyen, Aletta E Schutte
AIMS: Black populations from sub-Saharan Africa have a high prevalence of cardiovascular disease, which places significant strain on public health systems. Aortic stiffness is a prominent risk factor for cardiovascular disease development. We reported earlier that excessive alcohol use predicts aortic stiffness. However, we require a better understanding of other biomarkers involved in stiffness development, beyond alcohol use. Therefore, we determined which biomarkers (metabolic, inflammatory, endothelial activation and oxidative stress) relate to aortic stiffness in young and older black South Africans, self-reporting no alcohol-use...
June 12, 2018: Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice
Yu-Han Kao, Marisa C Eisenberg
Mathematical modeling has an extensive history in vector-borne disease epidemiology, and is increasingly used for prediction, intervention design, and understanding mechanisms. Many studies rely on parameter estimation to link models and data, and to tailor predictions and counterfactuals to specific settings. However, few studies have formally evaluated whether vector-borne disease models can properly estimate the parameters of interest given the constraints of a particular dataset. Identifiability analysis allows us to examine whether model parameters can be estimated uniquely-a lack of consideration of such issues can result in misleading or incorrect parameter estimates and model predictions...
May 26, 2018: Epidemics
Nicola Veronese, Jacopo Demurtas, Stefano Celotto, Maria Gabriella Caruso, Stefania Maggi, Francesco Bolzetta, Joseph Firth, Lee Smith, Patricia Schofield, Ai Koyanagi, Lin Yang, Marco Solmi, Brendon Stubbs
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The literature regarding the potential health benefits of chocolate consumption are unclear and the epidemiological credibility has not been systematically scrutinized, while the strength of the evidence is undetermined. We therefore aimed to map and grade the diverse health outcomes associated with chocolate consumption using an umbrella review of systematic reviews. METHODS: Umbrella review of systematic reviews of observational and intervention studies (randomized placebo-controlled trials, RCTs)...
June 1, 2018: Clinical Nutrition: Official Journal of the European Society of Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition
Lou S Herman, Kimberly Fornace, Jody Phelan, Matthew J Grigg, Nicholas M Anstey, Timothy William, Robert W Moon, Michael J Blackman, Chris J Drakeley, Kevin K A Tetteh
BACKGROUND: Plasmodium knowlesi is the most common cause of malaria in Malaysian Borneo, with reporting limited to clinical cases presenting to health facilities and scarce data on the true extent of transmission. Serological estimations of transmission have been used with other malaria species to garner information about epidemiological patterns. However, there are a distinct lack of suitable serosurveillance tools for this neglected disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using in silico tools, we designed and expressed four novel P...
June 2018: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Bo Yang, Xiao L Ren, Zhi Y Wang, Liang Wang, Feng Zhao, Xiao J Guo, Duo Li
OBJECTIVE: We aimed to summarize the up-to-date epidemiology evidence on biomarkers of long-chain (LC) n-3 fatty acid (FA) intake in relation to breast cancer (BC). METHODS: Epidemiology studies determining FA levels in biospecimen (circulating blood or adipose tissue (AT)) were identified from PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases until March 2018. Multivariate-adjusted risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using a random-effect model...
June 14, 2018: Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition
Molly Scannell Bryan, Maria Argos, Irene L Andrulis, John L Hopper, Jenny Chang-Claude, Kathleen E Malone, Esther M John, Marilie D Gammon, Mary B Daly, Mary Beth Terry, Saundra S Buys, Dezheng Huo, Olufunmilayo I Olopade, Jeanine M Genkinger, Alice S Whittemore, Farzana Jasmine, Muhammad G Kibriya, Lin S Chen, Habibul Ahsan
BACKGROUND: Although germline genetics influences breast cancer incidence, published research only explains approximately half of the expected association. Moreover, the accuracy of prediction models remains low. For women who develop breast cancer early, the genetic architecture is less established. METHODS: To identify loci associated with early-onset breast cancer, gene-based tests were carried out using exome array data from 3479 women with breast cancer diagnosed before age 50 and 973 age-matched controls...
June 13, 2018: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
Jennifer Adjemian, Kenneth N Olivier, D Rebecca Prevots
RATIONALE: Pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) disease represents a significant threat to cystic fibrosis (CF) patients, with an estimated annual prevalence of 12%. Prior studies report an increasing annual NTM prevalence in the general population, though similar trends in persons with CF have not been assessed. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to identify the prevalence, geographic patterns, temporal trends and risk factors for NTM positivity by mycobacterial species among persons with CF throughout the United States...
June 13, 2018: Annals of the American Thoracic Society
Sonia Roman
Occult hepatitis B infection (OBI) is the presence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA in the liver and/or serum (< 200 IU/mL) in HBsAgnegative patients with or without serologic markers of previous viral exposure. The clinical significance of OBI is of concern in posttransfusional hepatitis B infection, hepatitis B reactivation, chronic liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The diagnosis of OBI relays on the use of highly sensitive and specific laboratory techniques. Herein, comments derived from a study analyzing the frequency and characteristics of OBI in HCC Japanese patients are stated...
June 20, 2018: Annals of Hepatology
Kang Wang, Qiu-Juan Wang, Yong-Fu Xiong, Yang Shi, Wen-Jing Yang, Xiang Zhang, Hong-Yuan Li
We aimed to compare the overall survival (OS) and standardized mortality rate (SMR) of the male breast cancer (MBC) with female breast cancer (FBC) after propensity score matching. Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER), the early breast cancer patients (T1-2 N0-2 M0 ) were extracted from 1998-2007. This study included 1,111 and 2,151 patients with early MBC and FBC, respectively, whose clinicopathological characteristics were well balanced. At a mean follow-up time of 97 months, 10-year OS rate was 58...
June 11, 2018: Scientific Reports
Sarah J Melov, Irene Tsang, Ralph Cohen, Nadia Badawi, Karen Walker, Soundappan S V Soundappan, Thushari I Alahakoon
BACKGROUND: Gastroschisis is a congenital anomaly of the fetal abdominal wall, usually to the right side of umbilical insertion. It is often detected by routine antenatal ultrasound. Significant maternal and pediatric resources are utilised in the care of women and infants with gastroschisis. Increasing rates of gastroschisis worldwide have led institutions to review local data and investigate outcomes. A collaborative project was developed to review local epidemiology and investigate antenatal and neonatal factors influencing hospital length of stay (LOS) and total parental nutrition (TPN) in infants born with gastroschisis...
June 11, 2018: BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
Ahmad Hajebi, Abbas Motevalian, Masoumeh Amin-Esmaeili, Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar, Vandad Sharifi, Leila Hoseini, Behrang Shadloo, Ramin Mojtabai
OBJECTIVES: The aims of the study were to translate into Persian and culturally adapt the Kessler Psychological Distress Scales, K10 and K6, and to assess their reliability and validity. METHOD: The sample was recruited from primary health care (PHC) settings by quota nonprobability sampling, stratified by sex and age. Validity was assessed against the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (v2.1). The psychometric properties of K6 and K10 were also compared with the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12)...
June 11, 2018: International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research
Hideya Inoue, Tomoyuki Suzuki, Masashi Hyodo, Masami Miyake
In cases of food poisoning, it is important for food sanitation inspectors to determine the causative pathogen as early as possible and take necessary measures to minimize outbreaks. Interviews are usually conducted to obtain epidemiological information to aid in the rapid determination of the cause. However, the current method of determining the causative pathogen has the disadvantage of being reliant upon the experience and knowledge of food sanitation inspectors. Here, we analyzed 529 infectious food poisoning incidents reported in five municipalities in the Kinki region to develop a tool for evaluation using a multinomial logistic regression model, which can predict the causative pathogen based on the patients' epidemiological information...
June 11, 2018: Journal of Veterinary Medical Science
Mark W Kroll, Mollie B Ritter, Eric A Kennedy, Nora K Siegal, Roman Shinder, Michael A Brave, Howard E Williams
PURPOSE: While generally reducing morbidity and mortality, TASER® electrical weapons have risks associated with their usage, including burn injuries and head and cervical trauma associated with uncontrolled falls. The primary non-fatal complications appear to be significant eye injury but no analysis of the mechanisms or suggested treatments has been published. METHODS: We used a biomechanical model to predict the risk of eye injury as a function of distance from the weapon muzzle to the eye...
June 2, 2018: American Journal of Emergency Medicine
Fiona Houston, Olivier Andréoletti
Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is the only animal prion disease that has been demonstrated to be zoonotic, causing variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in humans. The link between BSE and vCJD was established by careful surveillance, epidemiologic investigations, and experimental studies using in vivo and in vitro models of cross-species transmission. Similar approaches have been used to assess the zoonotic potential of other animal prion diseases, including atypical forms identified through active surveillance...
2018: Handbook of Clinical Neurology
Cristina Casalone, James Hope
This chapter describes the prion diseases of cattle, or bovine transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (BoTSEs). "Classic" bovine spongiform encephalopathy (C-BSE), the major prion protein disorder of Bovidae, was first described in 1986. We also describe the spatiotemporal correlation of C-BSE to a novel form of human prion disease, variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), which led to the classification of BSE as a zoonotic disease (and the "cause" of vCJD) in 1996. From isolated cases first identified retrospectively in May 1985, a major bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic peaked within the British Isles in 1991, and has so far led to over 195,000 confirmed cases in cattle, and several thousand more cases within Europe and a few elsewhere...
2018: Handbook of Clinical Neurology
Jing-Zhang Wang, Nan-Yan Xiong, Li-Zhen Zhao L Z Zhao, Jin-Tian Hu, De-Cheng Kong, Jiang-Yong Yuan
The epidemiological trend in liver diseases becomes more serious worldwide. Several recent articles published by International Journal of Surgery in 2018 particularly emphasized the encouraging clinical benefits of hepatectomy, liver regeneration and liver transplantation, however, there are still many technical bottlenecks underlying these therapeutic approaches. Remarkably, a few preliminary studies have shown some clues to the role of three-dimensional (3D) printing in improving traditional therapy for liver diseases...
June 7, 2018: International Journal of Surgery
Su Jeong Ha, Jangho Lee, Joon Park, Young Ho Kim, Nam Hyouck Lee, Young Eon Kim, Kyung-Mo Song, Pahn-Shick Chang, Chul-Ho Jeong, Sung Keun Jung
Validation of nutraceutical and pharmaceutical targets is essential for the prediction of physiological and side effects. Epidemiologic evidence and molecular studies suggest that non-melanoma skin cancer is directly associated with excessive exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the inhibitory effects of syringic acid on UVB-induced signaling and skin carcinogenesis, and determine the molecular targets. Treatment of human epidermal keratinocytes (HaCaT) cells with syringic acid resulted in the suppression of UVB-induced cyclooxygenase-2, matrix metalloproteinase-1, and prostaglandin E2 expression as well as activator protein-1 activity...
June 7, 2018: Biochemical Pharmacology
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