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Predictive modeling

Charles D Warne, Sophie G Zaloumis, Nadine A Bertalli, Martin B Delatycki, Amanda J Nicoll, Christine E McLaren, John L Hopper, Graham G Giles, Greg J Anderson, John K Olynyk, Lawrie W Powell, Katrina J Allen, Lyle C Gurrin
BACKGROUND AND AIM: Women who are homozygous for the p.C282Y mutation in the HFE gene are at much lower risk of iron overload-related disease than p.C282Y homozygous men, presumably due to the iron-depleting effects of menstruation and pregnancy. We used data from a population cohort study to model the impact of menstruation cessation at menopause on serum ferritin (SF) levels in female p.C282Y homozygotes, with p.C282Y/p.H63D simple or compound heterozygotes and those with neither p...
October 26, 2016: Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology
Spyridon Chavlis, Panagiotis C Petrantonakis, Panayiota Poirazi
The hippocampus plays a key role in pattern separation, the process of transforming similar incoming information to highly dissimilar, non-overlapping representations. Sparse firing granule cells (GCs) in the dentate gyrus (DG) have been proposed to undertake this computation, but little is known about which of their properties influence pattern separation. Dendritic atrophy has been reported in diseases associated with pattern separation deficits, suggesting a possible role for dendrites in this phenomenon...
October 26, 2016: Hippocampus
Jarrod D Frizzell, Li Liang, Phillip J Schulte, Clyde W Yancy, Paul A Heidenreich, Adrian F Hernandez, Deepak L Bhatt, Gregg C Fonarow, Warren K Laskey
Importance: Several attempts have been made at developing models to predict 30-day readmissions in patients with heart failure, but none have sufficient discriminatory capacity for clinical use. Machine-learning (ML) algorithms represent a novel approach and may have potential advantages over traditional statistical modeling. Objective: To develop models using a ML approach to predict all-cause readmissions 30 days after discharge from a heart failure hospitalization and to compare ML model performance with models developed using "conventional" statistically based methods...
October 26, 2016: JAMA Cardiology
Paolo Fusar-Poli, Grazia Rutigliano, Daniel Stahl, André Schmidt, Valentina Ramella-Cravaro, Shetty Hitesh, Philip McGuire
Importance: Pretest risk estimation is routinely used in clinical medicine to inform further diagnostic testing in individuals with suspected diseases. To our knowledge, the overall characteristics and specific determinants of pretest risk of psychosis onset in individuals undergoing clinical high risk (CHR) assessment are unknown. Objectives: To investigate the characteristics and determinants of pretest risk of psychosis onset in individuals undergoing CHR assessment and to develop and externally validate a pretest risk stratification model...
October 26, 2016: JAMA Psychiatry
Ying Xiong, Li Liu, Jiajun Wang, Wei Xi, Yu Xia, Qi Bai, Yang Qu, Qilai Long, Jiejie Xu, Jianming Guo
BACKGROUND: Chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 21 (CCL21), a ligand of the chemokine (C-C motif) receptor 7, has recently been identified as an immuno-based anti-cancer molecule for its dendritic cells and T lymphocytes chemoattractant function. The aim of this study was to investigate prognostic values of CCL21 expression in metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients treated with targeted therapy. METHODS: This study included 111 patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma receiving targeted therapy...
October 23, 2016: Oncotarget
Haofei Yu, Amy L Stuart
'Smart' growth and electric vehicles are potential solutions to the negative impacts of worldwide urbanization on air pollution and health. However, the effects of planning strategies on distinct types of pollutants, and on human exposures, remain understudied. The goal of this work was to investigate the potential impacts of alternative urban designs for the area around Tampa, Florida USA, on emissions, ambient concentrations, and exposures to oxides of nitrogen (NOx), 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. We studied three potential future scenarios: sprawling growth, compact growth, and 100% vehicle fleet electrification with compact growth...
October 23, 2016: Science of the Total Environment
E L Andrade, A F Bento, J Cavalli, S K Oliveira, C S Freitas, R Marcon, R C Schwanke, J M Siqueira, J B Calixto
This review presents a historical overview of drug discovery and the non-clinical stages of the drug development process, from initial target identification and validation, through in silico assays and high throughput screening (HTS), identification of leader molecules and their optimization, the selection of a candidate substance for clinical development, and the use of animal models during the early studies of proof-of-concept (or principle). This report also discusses the relevance of validated and predictive animal models selection, as well as the correct use of animal tests concerning the experimental design, execution and interpretation, which affect the reproducibility, quality and reliability of non-clinical studies necessary to translate to and support clinical studies...
October 24, 2016: Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research, Revista Brasileira de Pesquisas Médicas e Biológicas
Jorge Barros, Susana Morales, Orietta Echávarri, Arnol García, Jaime Ortega, Takeshi Asahi, Claudia Moya, Ronit Fischman, María P Maino, Catalina Núñez
Objective: To analyze suicidal behavior and build a predictive model for suicide risk using data mining (DM) analysis. Methods: A study of 707 Chilean mental health patients (with and without suicide risk) was carried out across three healthcare centers in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile. Three hundred forty-three variables were studied using five questionnaires. DM and machine-learning tools were used via the support vector machine technique. Results: The model selected 22 variables that, depending on the circumstances in which they all occur, define whether a person belongs in a suicide risk zone (accuracy = 0...
October 20, 2016: Revista Brasileira de Psiquiatria
Rahul Agrawal, Tina P Dale, Mohammed A Al-Zubaidi, Prit Benny Malgulwar, Nicholas R Forsyth, Ritu Kulshreshtha
MicroRNAs are reported to have a crucial role in the regulation of self-renewal and differentiation of stem cells. Hypoxia has been identified as a key biophysical element of the stem cell culture milieu however, the link between hypoxia and miRNA expression in stem cells remains poorly understood. We therefore explored miRNA expression in hypoxic human embryonic and mesenchymal stem cells (hESCs and hMSCs). A total of 50 and 76 miRNAs were differentially regulated by hypoxia (2% O2) in hESCs and hMSCs, respectively, with a negligible overlap of only three miRNAs...
2016: PloS One
Paul R Hunter, Annette Prüss-Ustün
BACKGROUND: Although widely accepted as being one of the most important public health advances of the past hundred years, the contribution that improving sanitation coverage can make to child health is still unclear, especially since the publication of two large studies of sanitation in India which found no effect on child morbidity. We hypothesis that the value of sanitation does not come directly from use of improved sanitation but from improving community coverage. If this is so we further hypothesise that the relationship between sanitation coverage and child health will be non-linear and that most of any health improvement will accrue as sanitation becomes universal...
2016: PloS One
Tomas Maria Perez-Porcuna, Hélio Doyle Pereira-da-Silva, Carlos Ascaso, Adriana Malheiro, Samira Bührer, Flor Martinez-Espinosa, Rosa Abellana
INTRODUCTION: For adequate disease control the World Health Organization has proposed the diagnosis and treatment of latent tuberculous infection (LTBI) in groups of risk of developing the disease such as children. There is no gold standard (GS) test for the diagnosis of LTBI. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of LTBI in young children in contact with a household case of tuberculosis (TB-HCC) and determine the accuracy and precision of the Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold in-tube (QFT) used in the absence of a GS...
2016: PloS One
Viviane Coutinho Meneguzzi, Claudiney Biral Dos Santos, Gustavo Rocha Leite, Blima Fux, Aloísio Falqueto
Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is caused by a protozoan of the genus Leishmania and is transmitted by sand flies. The state of Espírito Santo (ES), an endemic area in southeast Brazil, has shown a considerably high prevalence in recent decades. Environmental niche modelling (ENM) is a useful tool for predicting potential disease risk. In this study, ENM was applied to sand fly species and CL cases in ES to identify the principal vector and risk areas of the disease. Sand flies were collected in 466 rural localities between 1997 and 2013 using active and passive capture...
2016: PloS One
Nathalie Van Humbeeck, Tom Putzeys, Johan Wagemans
Two stimuli alternately presented at different locations can evoke a percept of a stimulus continuously moving between the two locations. The neural mechanism underlying this apparent motion (AM) is thought to be increased activation of primary visual cortex (V1) neurons tuned to locations along the AM path, although evidence remains inconclusive. AM masking, which refers to the reduced detectability of stimuli along the AM path, has been taken as evidence for AM-related V1 activation. AM-induced neural responses are thought to interfere with responses to physical stimuli along the path and as such impair the perception of these stimuli...
October 2016: PLoS Computational Biology
Janet Bouttell, James Lewsey, Claudia Geue, Grace Antony, Andrew Briggs, Gerry McCartney, Sharon Hutchinson, Lesley Graham, Mathis Heydtmann
Studies assessing the costs of alcoholic liver disease are lacking. We aimed to calculate the costs of hospitalisations before and after diagnosis compared to population controls matched by age, sex and socio-economic deprivation. We aimed to use population level data to identify a cohort of individuals hospitalised for the first time with alcoholic liver disease in Scotland between 1991 and 2011.Incident cases were classified by disease severity, sex, age group, socio-economic deprivation and year of index admission...
2016: PloS One
Sarah E Goglin, Ramin Farzaneh-Far, Elissa S Epel, Jue Lin, Elizabeth H Blackburn, Mary A Whooley
BACKGROUND: Short telomere length independently predicts mortality in patients with coronary heart disease. Whether 5-year change in telomere length predicts subsequent mortality in patients with coronary heart disease has not been evaluated. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study of 608 individuals with stable coronary artery disease, we measured leukocyte telomere length at baseline and after five years of follow-up. We divided the sample into tertiles of telomere change: shortened, maintained or lengthened...
2016: PloS One
Joshua D Brown, Anand R Shewale, Jeffery C Talbert
BACKGROUND: Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are widely used for prevention of stroke secondary to nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Increased use of NOACs is partially a result of simplified regimens compared with warfarin, which has been associated with poor adherence and persistence to therapy. Few studies have assessed adherence to NOACs, especially using contemporary data now that multiple NOACs are available. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate adherence to NOACs in a cohort of newly diagnosed NVAF patients who are commercially insured...
November 2016: Journal of Managed Care & Specialty Pharmacy
Shivani K Mhatre, Omar Serna, Shubhada Sansgiry, Marc L Fleming, E James Essien, Sujit S Sansgiry
BACKGROUND: Low adherence to oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs) in the Medicare population can greatly reduce Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) star ratings for managed care organizations (MCOs). OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a risk assessment tool (Prescription Medication Adherence Prediction Tool for Diabetes Medications [RxAPT-D]) to predict nonadherence to OADs using Medicare claims data. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, claims data for members enrolled in a Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug (MA-PD) program in Houston, Texas, were used...
November 2016: Journal of Managed Care & Specialty Pharmacy
Jonathan Mellor, Emily Kumpel, Ayse Ercumen, Julie B Zimmerman
Anthropogenic climate change will likely increase diarrhea rates for communities with inadequate water, sanitation or hygiene facilities including those with intermittent water supplies. Current approaches to study these impacts typically focus on the effect of temperature on all-cause diarrhea while excluding precipitation and diarrhea etiology while not providing actionable adaptation strategies. We develop a partially mechanistic, systems approach to estimate future diarrhea prevalence and design adaptation strategies...
October 26, 2016: Environmental Science & Technology
David A Winkler, Tu C Le
Neural networks have generated valuable Quantitative Structure-Activity/Property Relationships (QSAR/QSPR) models for a wide variety of small molecules and materials properties. They have grown in sophistication and many of their initial problems have been overcome by modern mathematical techniques. QSAR studies have almost always used so-called "shallow" neural networks in which there is a single hidden layer between the input and output layers. Recently, a new and potentially paradigm-shifting type of neural network based on Deep Learning has appeared...
October 26, 2016: Molecular Informatics
Maria João Janeiro, David W Coltman, Marco Festa-Bianchet, Fanie Pelletier, Michael B Morrissey
Integral projection models (IPMs) are extremely flexible tools for ecological and evolutionary inference. IPMs track the distribution of phenotype in populations through time, using functions describing phenotype-dependent development, inheritance, survival and fecundity. For evolutionary inference, two important features of any model are the ability to (i) characterize relationships among traits (including values of the same traits across ages) within individuals, and (ii) characterize similarity between individuals and their descendants...
October 26, 2016: Journal of Evolutionary Biology
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