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Infectious diseases modelling

Oscar Illescas, Juan C Gomez-Verjan, Lizbeth García-Velázquez, Tzipe Govezensky, Miriam Rodriguez-Sosa
Human macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) is a cytokine that plays a role in several metabolic and inflammatory processes. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) -173 G/C (rs755622) on MIF gene has been associated with numerous diseases, such as arthritis and cancer. However, most of the reports concerning the association of MIF with these and other pathologies are inconsistent and remain quite controversial. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis from 96 case-control studies on -173 G/C MIF SNP and stratified the data according to the subjects geographic localization or the disease pathophysiology, in order to determine a more meaningful significance to this SNP...
2018: Frontiers in Genetics
Manuel Fresno, Núria Gironès
Chagas disease is a multisystemic disorder caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi , which affects ~8 million people in Latin America, killing 7,000 people annually. Chagas disease is one of the main causes of death in the endemic area and the leading cause of infectious myocarditis in the world. T. cruzi infection induces two phases, acute and chronic, where the infection is initially asymptomatic and the majority of patients will remain clinically indeterminate for life. However, over a period of 10-30 years, ~30% of infected individuals will develop irreversible, potentially fatal cardiac syndromes (chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy [CCC]), and/or dilatation of the gastro-intestinal tract (megacolon or megaesophagus)...
2018: Frontiers in Microbiology
BoYoon Chang, BongSeong Koo, HyeonCheol Lee, Joa Sub Oh, SungYeon Kim
Background: The innate immune system plays a crucial role in the initiation and subsequent direction of adaptive immune responses, as well as in the removal of pathogens that have been targeted by an adaptive immune response. Objective: Morus alba L. was reported to have immunostimulatory properties that might protect against infectious diseases. However, this possibility has not yet been explored. The present study investigated the protective and immune-enhancing ability of M...
2018: Food & Nutrition Research
Florian Lamping, Thomas Jack, Nicole Rübsamen, Michael Sasse, Philipp Beerbaum, Rafael T Mikolajczyk, Martin Boehne, André Karch
BACKGROUND: Since early antimicrobial therapy is mandatory in septic patients, immediate diagnosis and distinction from non-infectious SIRS is essential but hampered by the similarity of symptoms between both entities. We aimed to develop a diagnostic model for differentiation of sepsis and non-infectious SIRS in critically ill children based on routinely available parameters (baseline characteristics, clinical/laboratory parameters, technical/medical support). METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial conducted at a German tertiary-care pediatric intensive care unit (PICU)...
March 15, 2018: BMC Pediatrics
Leron Khalifa, Daniel Gelman, Mor Shlezinger, Axel Lionel Dessal, Shunit Coppenhagen-Glazer, Nurit Beyth, Ronen Hazan
The deteriorating effectiveness of antibiotics is propelling researchers worldwide towards alternative techniques such as phage therapy: curing infectious diseases using viruses of bacteria called bacteriophages. In a previous paper, we isolated phage EFDG1, highly effective against both planktonic and biofilm cultures of one of the most challenging pathogenic species, the vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE). Thus, it is a promising phage to be used in phage therapy. Further experimentation revealed the emergence of a mutant resistant to EFDG1 phage: EFDG1r ...
2018: Frontiers in Microbiology
Steven Abrams, Andreas Wienke, Niel Hens
Frailty models are often used in survival analysis to model multivariate time-to-event data. In infectious disease epidemiology, frailty models have been proposed to model heterogeneity in the acquisition of infection and to accommodate association in the occurrence of multiple types of infection. Although traditional frailty models rely on the assumption of lifelong immunity after recovery, refinements have been made to account for reinfections with the same pathogen. Recently, Abrams and Hens quantified the effect of misspecifying the underlying infection process on the basic and effective reproduction number in the context of bivariate current status data on parvovirus B19 and varicella zoster virus...
April 2018: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied Statistics
Tan En-Li, Wang Zheng-Feng, Zhou Wen-Ce, Li Shi-Zhu, Lu Yan, Ai Lin, Cai Yu-Chun, Teng Xue-Jiao, Zhang Shun-Xian, Dang Zhi-Sheng, Yang Chun-Li, Chen Jia-Xu, Hu Wei, Zhou Xiao-Nong, Tian Li-Guang
OBJECTIVE: To predict the monthly reported echinococcosis cases in China with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, so as to provide a reference for prevention and control of echinococcosis. METHODS: SPSS 24.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA models based on the monthly reported echinococcosis cases of time series from 2007 to 2015 and 2007 to 2014, respectively, and the accuracies of the two ARIMA models were compared. RESULTS: The model based on the data of the monthly reported cases of echinococcosis in China from 2007 to 2015 was ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0)12 , the relative error among reported cases and predicted cases was -13...
February 26, 2018: Zhongguo Xue Xi Chong Bing Fang Zhi za Zhi, Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control
Kunal Jani, Dhiraj Dhotre, Jayashree Bandal, Yogesh Shouche, Mangesh Suryavanshi, Vinay Rale, Avinash Sharma
Kumbh Mela is one of the largest religious mass gathering events (MGE) involving bathing in rivers. The exponential rise in the number of devotees, from around 0.4 million in 1903 to 120 million in 2013, bathing in small specified sites can have a dramatic impact on the river ecosystem. Here, we present the spatiotemporal profiling of bacterial communities in Godavari River, Nashik, India, comprising five sites during the Kumbh Mela, held in 2015. Assessment of environmental parameters indicated deterioration of water quality...
March 13, 2018: Microbial Ecology
Ki Bum Ahn, Jung Eun Baik, Cheol-Heui Yun, Seung Hyun Han
A biofilm is an aggregate of microorganisms in which cells adhere to biological or non-biological surfaces and is responsible for various infectious diseases. Infections caused by Staphylococcus aureus , including pneumonia, endocarditis, and osteomyelitis, are often associated with colonization and biofilm formation. Although lipoteichoic acid (LTA) is involved in biofilm formation, the specific role of LTA is not clearly understood. In this study, we demonstrated that LTA released from Lactobacillus plantarum could inhibit S...
2018: Frontiers in Microbiology
Mira C Patel, Kari Ann Shirey, Marina S Boukhvalova, Stefanie N Vogel, Jorge C G Blanco
Host-derived "danger-associated molecular patterns" (DAMPs) contribute to innate immune responses and serve as markers of disease progression and severity for inflammatory and infectious diseases. There is accumulating evidence that generation of DAMPs such as oxidized phospholipids and high-mobility-group box 1 (HMGB1) during influenza virus infection leads to acute lung injury (ALI). Treatment of influenza virus-infected mice and cotton rats with the Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) antagonist Eritoran blocked DAMP accumulation and ameliorated influenza virus-induced ALI...
March 13, 2018: MBio
Mikko Koivu-Jolma, Arto Annila
Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else...
March 10, 2018: Mathematical Biosciences
M van Wijhe, A D Tulen, H Korthals Altes, S A McDonald, H E de Melker, M J Postma, J Wallinga
Vaccination programmes are considered a main contributor to the decline of infectious diseases over the 20th century. In recent years, the national vaccination coverage in the Netherlands has been declining, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our aim was to quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands. We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919-2015...
March 14, 2018: Epidemiology and Infection
Cora L Bernard, Margaret L Brandeau
Structural assumptions in infectious disease models, such as the choice of network or compartmental model type or the inclusion of different types of heterogeneity across individuals, might affect model predictions as much as or more than the choice of input parameters. We explore the potential implications of structural assumptions on HIV model predictions and policy conclusions. We illustrate the value of inference robustness assessment through a case study of the effects of a hypothetical HIV vaccine in multiple population subgroups over eight related transmission models, which we sequentially modify to vary over two dimensions: parameter complexity (e...
November 2017: Infectious Disease Modelling
David J Civitello, Brent E Allman, Connor Morozumi, Jason R Rohr
Anthropogenic resource supplementation can shape wildlife disease directly by altering the traits and densities of hosts and parasites or indirectly by stimulating prey, competitor or predator species. We first assess the direct epidemiological consequences of supplementation, highlighting the similarities and differences between food provisioning and two widespread forms of nutrient input: agricultural fertilization and aquatic nutrient enrichment. We then review an aquatic disease system and a general model to assess whether predator and competitor species can enhance or overturn the direct effects of enrichment...
May 5, 2018: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
Simon J Epps, Joanne Boldison, Madeleine L Stimpson, Tarnjit K Khera, Philippa J P Lait, David A Copland, Andrew D Dick, Lindsay B Nicholson
Ocular function depends on a high level of anatomical integrity. This is threatened by inflammation, which alters the local tissue over short and long time-scales. Uveitis due to autoimmune disease, especially when it involves the retina, leads to persistent changes in how the eye interacts with the immune system. The normal pattern of immune surveillance, which for immune privileged tissues is limited, is re-programmed. Many cell types, that are not usually present in the eye, become detectable. There are changes in the tissue homeostasis and integrity...
March 9, 2018: Progress in Retinal and Eye Research
Jing-Lun Chen, Guang-Min Nong
Infectious diseases can be caused by multiple pathogens, which can produce specific immune response in human body. The immune response produced by T cells is cellular immunity, which plays an important role in the anti-infection process of human body, and can participate in immunological protection and cause immunopathology. The outcome of various infectious diseases is closely related to cellular immune function, especially the function of T cells. Jurkat cells belong to the human acute T lymphocyte leukemia cell line...
March 2018: Zhongguo Dang Dai Er Ke za Zhi, Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics
Anne-Claire Gehrig, Katrin Hartmann, Felix Günther, André Klima, Gabriele Habacher, Michèle Bergmann
Objectives Vaccination is the most important measure for prevention of feline infectious diseases. Cat owner compliance with vaccination recommendations has been investigated in the UK but not in other European countries. The aim of the present study was to determine cat owners' attitudes towards vaccination in cats in Germany, to identify factors that are associated with the vaccination status of their cats and to compare the results with those of the UK survey. Methods The survey was conducted using an online questionnaire and was aimed at respondents throughout Germany...
March 1, 2018: Journal of Feline Medicine and Surgery
Frank G Sandmann, Laura Shallcross, Natalie Adams, David J Allen, Pietro G Coen, Annette Jeanes, Zisis Kozlakidis, Lesley Larkin, Fatima Wurie, Julie V Robotham, Mark Jit, Sarah R Deeny
Background: Norovirus places a substantial burden on healthcare systems, arising from infected patients, disease outbreaks, beds kept unoccupied for infection control, and staff absences due to infection. In settings with high rates of bed occupancy, opportunity costs arise from patients who cannot be admitted due to beds being unavailable. With several treatments and vaccines against norovirus in development, quantifying the expected economic burden is timely. Methods: The number of inpatients with norovirus-associated gastroenteritis in England were modelled using infectious and non-infectious gastrointestinal Hospital Episode Statistics codes and laboratory reports of gastrointestinal pathogens collected at Public Health England...
February 26, 2018: Clinical Infectious Diseases: An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Brintha Parasumanna Girinathan, Junjun Ou, Bruno Dupuy, Revathi Govind
Clostridium difficile is the primary cause of nosocomial diarrhea and pseudomembranous colitis. It produces dormant spores, which serve as an infectious vehicle responsible for transmission of the disease and persistence of the organism in the environment. In Bacillus subtilis, the sin locus coding SinR (113 aa) and SinI (57 aa) is responsible for sporulation inhibition. In B. subtilis, SinR mainly acts as a repressor of its target genes to control sporulation, biofilm formation, and autolysis. SinI is an inhibitor of SinR, so their interaction determines whether SinR can inhibit its target gene expression...
March 12, 2018: PLoS Pathogens
Lars Benjaminsen, Jesper Fels Birkelund
AIMS: This article analyses excess morbidity amongst homeless shelter users compared to the general Danish population. The study provides an extensive control for confounding and investigates to what extent excess morbidity is explained by homelessness or other risk factors. METHODS: Data set includes administrative micro-data for 4,068,926 Danes who were 23 years or older on 1 January 2007. Nationwide data on shelter use identified 14,730 individuals as shelter users from 2002 to 2006...
March 1, 2018: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health
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