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Infectious diseases modelling

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29786769/do-fatal-infectious-diseases-eradicate-host-species
#1
Alex P Farrell, James P Collins, Amy L Greer, Horst R Thieme
In simple SI epidemic and endemic models, three classes of incidence functions are identified for their potential to be associated with host extinction: weakly upper density-dependent incidences are never associated with host extinction. Power incidences that depend on the number of susceptibles and infectives by powers strictly between 0 and 1 are associated with initial-constellation-dependent host extinction for all parameter values. Homogeneous incidences, of which frequency-dependent incidence is a very particular case, and power incidences are associated with global host extinction for certain parameter constellations and with host survival for others...
May 21, 2018: Journal of Mathematical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29786132/the-economic-case-for-a-pandemic-fund
#2
Kevin Berry, Toph Allen, Richard D Horan, Jason F Shogren, David Finnoff, Peter Daszak
The rapid urban spread of Ebola virus in West Africa in 2014 and consequent breakdown of control measures led to a significant economic impact as well as the burden on public health and wellbeing. The US government appropriated $5.4 Billion for FY2015 and WHO proposed a $100 Million emergency fund largely to curtail the threat of future outbreaks. Using epidemiological analyses and economic modeling, we propose that the best use of these and similar funds would be to serve as global insurance against the continued threat of emerging infectious diseases...
May 21, 2018: EcoHealth
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29785893/evaluating-vaccination-strategies-to-control-foot-and-mouth-disease-a-country-comparison-study
#3
T G Rawdon, M G Garner, R L Sanson, M A Stevenson, C Cook, C Birch, S E Roche, K A Patyk, K N Forde-Folle, C Dubé, T Smylie, Z D Yu
Vaccination is increasingly being recognised as a potential tool to supplement 'stamping out' for controlling foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in non-endemic countries. Infectious disease simulation models provide the opportunity to determine how vaccination might be used in the face of an FMD outbreak. Previously, consistent relative benefits of specific vaccination strategies across different FMD simulation modelling platforms have been demonstrated, using a UK FMD outbreak scenario. We extended this work to assess the relative effectiveness of selected vaccination strategies in five countries: Australia, New Zealand, the USA, the UK and Canada...
May 22, 2018: Epidemiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29785520/times-from-infection-to-disease-induced-death-and-their-influence-on-final-population-sizes-after-epidemic-outbreaks
#4
Alex P Farrell, James P Collins, Amy L Greer, Horst R Thieme
For epidemic models, it is shown that fatal infectious diseases cannot drive the host population into extinction if the incidence function is upper density-dependent. This finding holds even if a latency period is included and the time from infection to disease-induced death has an arbitrary length distribution. However, if the incidence function is also lower density-dependent, very infectious diseases can lead to a drastic decline of the host population. Further, the final population size after an epidemic outbreak can possibly be substantially affected by the infection-age distribution of the initial infectives if the life expectations of infected individuals are an unbounded function of infection age (time since infection)...
May 21, 2018: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29784843/high-dose-and-delayed-treatment-with-bile-acids-ineffective-in-rml-prion-infected-mice
#5
Grant Norman, Jody Campeau, Valerie L Sim
Prion diseases are a group of neurodegenerative diseases associated with the misfolding of the cellular prion protein (PrPC ) into the infectious form (PrPSc ). There are currently no treatments for prion disease. Bile acids have the ability to protect hepatocytes from apoptosis and are neuroprotective in animal models of other protein folding neurodegenerative diseases including Huntington's, Parkinson's, and Alzheimer's disease. Importantly, bile acids are approved for clinical use in patients with cirrhosis, and have recently been shown to be safe and possibly effective in pilot trials of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)...
May 21, 2018: Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29783254/-legal-bases-of-vaccination-in-ukraine
#6
Olena O Terzi
OBJECTIVE: Introduction: Despite the extraordinary progress made in the field of vaccination, a large number of children in the last decade, 24 million children, or nearly 20% of children born every year, do not receive a full plan for vaccination during their first year of life. The aim: The purpose of the article is to analyze the legal framework of vaccination in Ukraine, comparing the approach of the domestic legislator to the vaccination with foreign experience. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and methods: Methods of research are selected based on the goal of the study...
2018: Wiadomości Lekarskie: Organ Polskiego Towarzystwa Lekarskiego
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29781731/neuropsychologists-as-primary-care-providers-of-cognitive-health-a-novel-comprehensive-cognitive-wellness-service-delivery-model
#7
Patricia A Pimental, John B O'Hara, Jessica L Jandak
By virtue of their extensive knowledge base and specialized training in brain-behavior relationships, neuropsychologists are especially poised to execute a unique broad-based approach to overall cognitive wellness and should be viewed as primary care providers of cognitive health. This article will describe a novel comprehensive cognitive wellness service delivery model including cognitive health, anti-aging, lifelong wellness, and longevity-oriented practices. These practice areas include brain-based cognitive wellness, emotional and spiritually centric exploration, and related multimodality health interventions...
July 2018: Applied Neuropsychology. Adult
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29781552/topical-rifampin-powder-for-orthopaedic-trauma-part-i-rifampin-powder-reduces-recalcitrant-infection-in-a-delayed-treatment-musculoskeletal-trauma-model
#8
Stefanie M Shiels, David J Tennent, Joseph C Wenke
Open fractures become infected despite meticulous debridement and care. Locally applied antibiotics, commonly embedded in polymethylmethacrylate, deliver high doses of drug directly to the fracture site. Direct application of antibiotic powder, which is being applied prophylactically in spine surgery, is a recent interest in the trauma sector, where bacterial biofilms are more prevalent. Traditional antibiotics, such as vancomycin, are poor performers against bacterial biofilms thus are ineffective in delayed treatment...
May 21, 2018: Journal of Orthopaedic Research: Official Publication of the Orthopaedic Research Society
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29781359/rhabdoviruses-as-vaccine-platforms-for-infectious-disease-and-cancer
#9
Franz Zemp, Jahanara Rajwani, Douglas J Mahoney
The family Rhabdoviridae (RV) comprises a large, genetically diverse collection of single-stranded, negative sense RNA viruses from the order Mononegavirales. Several RV members are being developed as live-attenuated vaccine vectors for the prevention or treatment of infectious disease and cancer. These include the prototype recombinant Vesicular Stomatitis Virus (rVSV) and the more recently developed recombinant Maraba Virus, both species within the genus Vesiculoviridae. A relatively strong safety profile in humans, robust immunogenicity and genetic malleability are key features that make the RV family attractive vaccine platforms...
May 21, 2018: Biotechnology & Genetic Engineering Reviews
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29780431/mathematical-modelling-of-bacterial-meningitis-transmission-dynamics-with-control-measures
#10
Joshua Kiddy K Asamoah, Farai Nyabadza, Baba Seidu, Mehar Chand, Hemen Dutta
Vaccination and treatment are the most effective ways of controlling the transmission of most infectious diseases. While vaccination helps susceptible individuals to build either a long-term immunity or short-term immunity, treatment reduces the number of disease-induced deaths and the number of infectious individuals in a community/nation. In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model with time-dependent controls has been proposed to describe the dynamics of bacterial meningitis in a population. The model is shown to exhibit a unique globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium ℰ 0 , when the effective reproduction number ℛ VT ≤ 1, and a globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium ℰ 1 , when ℛ VT > 1; and it exhibits a transcritical bifurcation at ℛ VT = 1...
2018: Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29780031/adolescent-self-consent-for-vaccinations-protocol-for-a-mixed-methods-systematic-review
#11
Harriet Fisher, Matthew Hickman, John Macleod, Suzanne Audrey
INTRODUCTION: The recent global expansion of routine adolescent vaccination programmes has the potential to protect young people against the acquisition of infectious disease and improve their health. Although in many countries the legal framework supports young people to provide consent for medical interventions if they are considered competent, written parental consent can act as a barrier to uptake as it is frequently a condition of adolescent vaccination programmes. The aim of this systematic review protocol is to document the methods which will be used to identify, appraise and synthesise the available qualitative and quantitative evidence to address: (1) whether implementation of adolescent self-consent procedures can increase vaccination uptake and (2) the barriers and facilitators to implementation of adolescent self-consent procedures...
May 20, 2018: BMJ Open
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29779674/forecasting-respiratory-infectious-outbreaks-using-ed-based-syndromic-surveillance-for-febrile-ed-visits-in-a-metropolitan-city
#12
Tae Han Kim, Ki Jeong Hong, Sang Do Shin, Gwan Jin Park, Sungwan Kim, Nhayoung Hong
BACKGROUND: Monitoring and detecting sudden outbreaks of respiratory infectious disease is important. Emergency Department (ED)-based syndromic surveillance systems have been introduced for early detection of infectious outbreaks. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a forecasting model of respiratory infectious disease outbreaks based on a nationwide ED syndromic surveillance using daily number of emergency department visits with fever. METHODS: We measured the number of daily ED visits with body temperature ≥ 38...
May 10, 2018: American Journal of Emergency Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29778193/single-nucleotide-variants-in-innate-immune-genes-associated-with-salmonella-shedding-and-colonization-in-swine-on-commercial-farms
#13
Margaret H Ainslie-Garcia, Abdolvahab Farzan, Mohsen Jafarikia, Brandon N Lillie
Foodborne human salmonellosis is an important food safety concern worldwide. Food-producing animals are one of the major sources of human salmonellosis, and thus control of Salmonella at the farm level could reduce Salmonella spread in the food supply system. Genetic selection of pigs with resistance to Salmonella infection may be one way to control Salmonella on swine farms. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between genetic variants in the porcine innate immune system with on-farm Salmonella shedding and Salmonella colonization tested at slaughter...
June 2018: Veterinary Microbiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29777425/the-use-of-hiv-post-exposure-prophylaxis-in-forensic-medicine-following-incidents-of-sexual-violence-in-hamburg-germany-a-retrospective-study
#14
Julia Ebert, Jan Peter Sperhake, Olaf Degen, Ann Sophie Schröder
In Hamburg, Germany, the initiation of HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (HIV PEP) in cases of sexual violence is often carried out by forensic medical specialists (FMS) using the city's unique Hamburg Model. FMS-provided three-day HIV PEP starter packs include a combination of raltegravir and emtricitabine/tenofovir. This study aimed to investigate the practice of offering HIV PEP, reasons for discontinuing treatment, patient compliance, and whether or not potential perpetrators were tested for HIV. We conducted a retrospective study of forensic clinical examinations carried out by the Hamburg Department of Legal Medicine following incidents of sexual violence from 2009 to 2016...
May 18, 2018: Forensic Science, Medicine, and Pathology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29776758/using-preference-learning-for-detecting-inconsistencies-in-clinical-practice-guidelines-methods-and-application-to-antibiotherapy
#15
Rosy Tsopra, Jean-Baptiste Lamy, Karima Sedki
Clinical practice guidelines provide evidence-based recommendations. However, many problems are reported, such as contradictions and inconsistencies. For example, guidelines recommend sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim in child sinusitis, but they also state that there is a high bacteria resistance in this context. In this paper, we propose a method for the semi-automatic detection of inconsistencies in guidelines using preference learning, and we apply this method to antibiotherapy in primary care. The preference model was learned from the recommendations and from a knowledge base describing the domain...
May 15, 2018: Artificial Intelligence in Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29776610/comparative-evaluation-of-immune-responses-of-swine-in-prrs-stable-and-unstable-herds
#16
Michele Drigo, Enrico Giacomini, Massimiliano Lazzaro, Daniela Pasotto, Dania Bilato, Jessica Ruggeri, Maria Beatrice Boniotti, Giovani Loris Alborali, Massimo Amadori
Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) is an elusive model of host/virus relationship in which disease is determined by virus pathogenicity, pig breed susceptibility and phenotype, microbial infectious pressure and environmental conditions. Successful disease control in PRRS-endemic Countries corresponds to "stability", i.e. a condition with no clinical signs of PRRS in the breeding-herd population and no viremia in weaning-age pigs. The aim of this work was to compare the profile and time-course of humoral and cell-mediated immunity in stable and unstable herds, respectively...
June 2018: Veterinary Immunology and Immunopathology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29775680/assessing-the-effects-of-daily-commuting-in-two-patch-dengue-dynamics-a-case-study-of-cali-colombia
#17
Edwin Barrios, Sunmi Lee, Olga Vasilieva
There are many infectious diseases that can be spread by daily commuting of people and dengue fever is one of them. The absence of vaccine and irregularities in ongoing vector control programs make this disease the most frequent and persistent in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. This paper targets to access the effects of daily commuting on dengue transmission dynamics by using a deterministic two-patch model fitted to observed data gathered in Cali, Colombia where dengue fever is highly persistent and exhibits endemo-epidemic patterns...
May 15, 2018: Journal of Theoretical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29774217/effective-network-size-predicted-from-simulations-of-pathogen-outbreaks-through-social-networks-provides-a-novel-measure-of-structure-standardized-group-size
#18
Collin M McCabe, Charles L Nunn
The transmission of infectious disease through a population is often modeled assuming that interactions occur randomly in groups, with all individuals potentially interacting with all other individuals at an equal rate. However, it is well known that pairs of individuals vary in their degree of contact. Here, we propose a measure to account for such heterogeneity: effective network size (ENS), which refers to the size of a maximally complete network (i.e., unstructured, where all individuals interact with all others equally) that corresponds to the outbreak characteristics of a given heterogeneous, structured network...
2018: Frontiers in Veterinary Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29773773/cuban-epidemic-neuropathy-insights-into-the-toxic-nutritional-hypothesis-through-international-collaboration
#19
Alina González-Quevedo, Rosaralis Santiesteban-Freixas, Janis T Eells, Lucimey Lima, Alfredo A Sadun
From 1991 to 1993, an epidemic of optic and peripheral neuropathy-the largest of the century-broke out in Cuba, affecting more than 50,000 people. Initially the main clinical features were decreased visual acuity, central and cecocentral scotomas, impaired color vision and absence of the papillomacular bundle. Later, peripheral and mixed optic-peripheral forms began to appear. Due to the magnitude of the epidemic, the Cuban government requested help from the international community at the 46th World Health Assembly in 1993...
April 2018: MEDICC Review
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29772893/quantifying-human-environment-interactions-using-videography-in-the-context-of-infectious-disease-transmission
#20
Timothy R Julian, Carla Bustos, Laura H Kwong, Alejandro D Badilla, Julia Lee, Heather N Bischel, Robert A Canales
Quantitative data on human-environment interactions are needed to fully understand infectious disease transmission processes and conduct accurate risk assessments. Interaction events occur during an individual's movement through, and contact with, the environment, and can be quantified using diverse methodologies. Methods that utilize videography, coupled with specialized software, can provide a permanent record of events, collect detailed interactions in high resolution, be reviewed for accuracy, capture events difficult to observe in real-time, and gather multiple concurrent phenomena...
May 8, 2018: Geospatial Health
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