Infectious diseases modeling

Infectious disease agents can influence each other's dynamics in shared host populations. We consider such influence for two mosquito-borne infections where one pathogen is endemic at the time that a second pathogen invades. We regard a setting where the vector has a bias towards biting host individuals infected with the endemic pathogen and where there is a cost to co-infected hosts. As a motivating case study, we regard Plasmodium spp., that cause avian malaria, as the endemic pathogen, and Usutu virus (USUV) as the invading pathogen...

OBJECTIVES: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an epidemic emerging infectious disease with high mortality rate. We investigated the association between liver injury and clinical outcomes in patients with SFTS. METHODS: A total of 291 hospitalized SFTS patients were retrospectively included. Cox proportional hazards model was adopted to identify risk factors of fatal outcome and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate cumulative risks. RESULTS: 60...

The time-varying effective reproduction number Rt is a widely used indicator of transmission dynamics during infectious disease outbreaks. Timely estimates of Rt can be obtained from reported cases counted by their date of symptom onset, which is generally closer to the time of infection than the date of report. Case counts by date of symptom onset are typically obtained from line list data, however these data can have missing information and are subject to right truncation. Previous methods have addressed these problems independently by first imputing missing onset dates, then adjusting truncated case counts, and finally estimating the effective reproduction number...

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e...

Pathogens such as Plasmodium, Babesia, and Theileria invade and multiply within host red blood cells, leading to the pathological consequences of malaria, babesiosis and theileriosis. Establishing continuous in vitro culture systems and suitable animal models is crucial for studying these pathogens. This review spotlights the B. duncani "in culture-in mouse (ICIM)" model as a promising resource for advancing research on the biology, pathogenicity, and virulence of intraerythrocytic parasites. The model offers practical benefits, encompassing well-defined culture conditions, ease of manipulation and a well-annotated genome...

BACKGROUND: Chronic neuropsychological sequelae following SARS-CoV-2 infection, including depression, anxiety, fatigue, and general cognitive difficulties, are a major public health concern. Given the potential impact of long-term neuropsychological impairment, it is important to characterize the frequency and predictors of this post-infection phenotype. METHODS: The Epidemiology, Immunology, and Clinical Characteristics of Emerging Infectious Diseases with Pandemic Potential (EPICC) study is a longitudinal study assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in U...

Tyrosine cross-linking has recently been used to produce nanoclusters (NCs) from peptides to enhance their immunogenicity. In this study, NCs were generated using the ectodomain of the ion channel Matrix 2 (M2e) protein, a conserved influenza surface antigen. The NCs were administered via intranasal (IN) or intramuscular (IM) routes in a mouse model in a prime-boost regimen in the presence of the adjuvant CpG. After boost, a significant increase in anti-M2e IgG and its subtypes was observed in the serum and lungs of mice vaccinated through the IM and IN routes; however, significant enhancement in anti-M2e IgA in lungs was observed only in the IN group...

BACKGROUND: China is confronted with the significant menace posed by hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Nevertheless, the long-term spatial-temporal variations, regional prevalence patterns, and fundamental determinants' mechanisms for HFRS remain inadequately elucidated. METHODS: Newly diagnosed cases of HFRS from January 2004 to December 2019 were acquired from the China Public Health Science Data repository. We used Age-period-cohort and Bayesian Spacetime Hierarchy models to identify high-risk populations and regions in mainland China...

Cryptococcus neoformans (Cn) is an opportunistic fungus that causes severe central nervous system (CNS) disease in immunocompromised individuals. Brain parenchyma invasion requires fungal traversal of the blood-brain barrier. In this study, we describe that Cn alters the brain endothelium by activating small GTPase RhoA, causing reorganization of the actin cytoskeleton and tight junction modulation to regulate endothelial barrier permeability. We confirm that the main fungal capsule polysaccharide glucuronoxylomannan is responsible for these alterations...

BACKGROUND: The prolonged presence of Syrian refugees in Jordan has highlighted the need for sustainable health service delivery models for refugees. In 2012, the Jordanian government adopted a policy that granted Syrian refugees access, free of charge, to the national health system. However since 2012, successive policy revisions have limited refugee access. This paper seeks to understand factors that initially put refugee integration into the health system on the policy agenda, as well as how these same factors later affected commitment to sustain the policy...

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) ranks as the second leading cause of death globally among all infectious diseases. This problem is likely due to the lack of biomarkers to differentiate the heterogeneous spectrum of infection. Therefore, the first step in solving this problem is to identify biomarkers to distinguish the different disease states of an individual and treat them accordingly. Circulating microRNA (miRNA) biomarkers are promising candidates for various diseases. In fact, we are yet to conceptualize how miRNA expression influences and predicts TB disease outcomes...

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has outlined a set of targets to achieve eliminating hepatitis C by 2030. In May 2022, Lithuanian health authorities initiated a hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening program to start working towards elimination. In the program, bonus was given to general practitioners (GPs) to promote and conduct anti-HCV tests for two situations: (1) one time testing for individuals born in 1945-1994 and (2) annual HCV testing for persons who inject drugs or are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) regardless of age...

BACKGROUND: Monkeypox is an emerging infectious disease with confirmed cases and deaths in several parts of the world. In light of this crisis, this study aims to analyze the global knowledge pattern of monkeypox-related patents and explore current trends and future technical directions in the medical development of monkeypox to inform research and policy. METHODS: A comprehensive study of 1,791 monkeypox-related patents worldwide was conducted using the Derwent patent database by descriptive statistics, social network method and linear regression analysis...

Wastewater surveillance has been increasingly acknowledged as a useful tool for monitoring transmission dynamics of infections of public health concern, including the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). While a range of models have been proposed to estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt ) utilizing clinical data, few have harnessed the viral concentration in wastewater samples to do so, leaving uncertainties about the potential precision gains with its use. In this study, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model which simultaneously reconstructed the latent infection trajectory and estimated Rt ...

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the main causative agent of tuberculosis. BCG, the only licensed vaccine, provides inadequate protection against pulmonary tuberculosis. Controlled human infection models are useful tools for vaccine development. We aimed to determine a safe dose of aerosol-inhaled live-attenuated Mycobacterium bovis BCG as a surrogate for M tuberculosis infection, then compare the safety and tolerability of infection models established using aerosol-inhaled and intradermally administered BCG...

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don't yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift...

A productive HIV-1 infection in humans is often established by transmission and propagation of a single transmitted/founder (T/F) virus, which then evolves into a complex mixture of variants during the lifetime of infection. An effective HIV-1 vaccine should elicit broad immune responses in order to block the entry of diverse T/F viruses. Currently, no such vaccine exists. An in-depth study of escape variants emerging under host immune pressure during very early stages of infection might provide insights into such a HIV-1 vaccine design...

It is important to honor the contributions of scientific leaders who have dedicated their lives to advancing knowledge and serving their country. One way is to document their experiences and personalities in a documentary format, which can serve as a historical record and an inspiration for future generations. Dr. Mostafa Pourtaghva Shahrestani, a renowned physician and specialist in infectious diseases and tropical medicine, has made significant contributions to public health in Iran. He has played a crucial role in controlling infectious diseases such as smallpox, tuberculosis, rabies, plague, and cholera...

Abstract Malaria remains one of the most important infectious diseases globally due to its high incidence and mortality rates. The influx of infected cases from endemic to non-endemic malaria regions like Europe has resulted in a public health concern over sporadic local outbreaks. This is facilitated by the continued presence of competent Anopheles vectors in non-endemic countries.We modeled the potential distribution of the main malaria vector across Spain using the ensemble of eight modeling techniques based on environmental parameters and the Anopheles maculipennis s...

BACKGROUND: Studies evaluating physical activity (PA) levels in individuals with Chagas disease (CD) are still scarce. The present study aimed to evaluate PA levels in CD individuals and examine their association with Chagas heart disease (ChHD). METHODS: We included patients with CD regularly followed in a reference center for treatment of infectious diseases. PA levels were assessed using the short version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ)...