Renan Le Roux, Carina Furusho-Percot, Jean-Charles Deswarte, Marie-Odile Bancal, Karine Chenu, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri, Alexis Durand, Burak Bulut, Olivier Maury, Jérémie Décome, Marie Launay
Climate change threatens food security by affecting the productivity of major cereal crops. To date, agroclimatic risk projections through indicators have focused on expected hazards exposure during the crop's current vulnerable seasons, without considering the non-stationarity of their phenology under evolving climatic conditions. We propose a new method for spatially classifying agroclimatic risks for wheat, combining high-resolution climatic data with a wheat's phenological model. The method is implemented for French wheat involving three GCM-RCM model pairs and two emission scenarios...
April 8, 2024: Scientific Reports