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HIV mathematical modeling

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28320938/effectiveness-of-unaids-targets-and-hiv-vaccination-across-127-countries
#1
Jan Medlock, Abhishek Pandey, Alyssa S Parpia, Amber Tang, Laura A Skrip, Alison P Galvani
The HIV pandemic continues to impose enormous morbidity, mortality, and economic burdens across the globe. Simultaneously, innovations in antiretroviral therapy, diagnostic approaches, and vaccine development are providing novel tools for treatment-as-prevention and prophylaxis. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the added benefit of an HIV vaccine in the context of goals to increase rates of diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression in 127 countries. Under status quo interventions, we predict a median of 49 million [first and third quartiles 44M, 58M] incident cases globally from 2015 to 2035...
March 20, 2017: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28296801/accounting-for-nonsampling-error-in-estimates-of-hiv-epidemic-trends-from-antenatal-clinic-sentinel-surveillance
#2
Jeffrey W Eaton, Le Bao
OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to propose and demonstrate an approach to allow additional nonsampling uncertainty about HIV prevalence measured at antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance (ANC-SS) in model-based inferences about trends in HIV incidence and prevalence. DESIGN: Mathematical model fitted to surveillance data with Bayesian inference. METHODS: We introduce a variance inflation parameter (Equation is included in full-text article...
April 2017: AIDS
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28274904/gender-specific-combination-hiv-prevention-for-youth-in-high-burden-settings-the-mp3-youth-observational-pilot-study-protocol
#3
Jasmine Buttolph, Irene Inwani, Kawango Agot, Charles M Cleland, Peter Cherutich, James N Kiarie, Alfred Osoti, Connie L Celum, Jared M Baeten, Ruth Nduati, John Kinuthia, Timothy B Hallett, Ramzi Alsallaq, Ann E Kurth
BACKGROUND: Nearly three decades into the epidemic, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains the region most heavily affected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), with nearly 70% of the 34 million people living with HIV globally residing in the region. In SSA, female and male youth (15 to 24 years) are at a disproportionately high risk of HIV infection compared to adults. As such, there is a need to target HIV prevention strategies to youth and to tailor them to a gender-specific context. This protocol describes the process for the multi-staged approach in the design of the MP3 Youth pilot study, a gender-specific, combination, HIV prevention intervention for youth in Kenya...
March 8, 2017: JMIR Research Protocols
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28237668/mathematical-modeling-of-hiv-like-particle-assembly-in-vitro
#4
Yuewu Liu, Xiufen Zou
In vitro, the recombinant HIV-1 Gag protein can generate spherical particles with a diameter of 25-30 nm in a fully defined system. It has approximately 80 building blocks, and its intermediates for assembly are abundant in geometry. Accordingly, there are a large number of nonlinear equations in the classical model. Therefore, it is difficult to compute values of geometry parameters for intermediates and make the mathematical analysis using the model. In this work, we develop a new model of HIV-like particle assembly in vitro by using six-fold symmetry of HIV-like particle assembly to decrease the number of geometry parameters...
February 22, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28220205/global-properties-of-nested-network-model-with-application-to-multi-epitope-hiv-ctl-dynamics
#5
Cameron Browne
Mathematical modeling and analysis can provide insight on the dynamics of ecosystems which maintain biodiversity in the face of competitive and prey-predator interactions. Of primary interests are the underlying structure and features which stabilize diverse ecological networks. Recently Korytowski and Smith (Theor Ecol 8(1):111-120, 2015) proved that a perfectly nested infection network, along with appropriate life history trade-offs, leads to coexistence and persistence of bacteria-phage communities in a chemostat model...
February 20, 2017: Journal of Mathematical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28202942/duration-of-shiv-production-by-infected-cells-is-not-exponentially-distributed-implications-for-estimates-of-infection-parameters-and-antiviral-efficacy
#6
Catherine A A Beauchemin, Tomoyuki Miura, Shingo Iwami
The duration of the eclipse phase, from cell infection to the production and release of the first virion progeny, immediately followed by the virus-production phase, from the first to the last virion progeny, are important steps in a viral infection, by setting the pace of infection progression and modulating the response to antiviral therapy. Using a mathematical model (MM) and data for the infection of HSC-F cells with SHIV in vitro, we reconfirm our earlier finding that the eclipse phase duration follows a fat-tailed distribution, lasting 19 h (18-20 h)...
February 16, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28202924/reevaluating-canada-s-policy-for-blood-donations-from-men-who-have-sex-with-men-msm
#7
Bellal Jubran, Maxime Billick, Gabriel Devlin, Jeremy Cygler, Bertrand Lebouché
During the HIV/AIDS epidemic of the 1980s, most of the developed world instituted a permanent ban on blood donations from men who have sex with men (MSM). In recent years, public health agencies across Europe and North America are reconsidering and rescinding these restrictions. We examine the Canadian climate, where MSM may donate blood only after a 5-year deferral period. We review circumstances of the initial ban on MSM blood donations and recent social, legal, and economic changes that have encouraged Canadian public health officials to consider policy reform...
December 2016: Journal of Public Health Policy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28118387/could-circumcision-of-hiv-positive-males-benefit-voluntary-medical-male-circumcision-programs-in-africa-mathematical-modeling-analysis
#8
Susanne F Awad, Sema K Sgaier, Fiona K Lau, Yousra A Mohamoud, Bushimbwa C Tambatamba, Katharine E Kripke, Anne G Thomas, Naomi Bock, Jason B Reed, Emmanuel Njeuhmeli, Laith J Abu-Raddad
BACKGROUND: The epidemiological and programmatic implications of inclusivity of HIV-positive males in voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs are uncertain. We modeled these implications using Zambia as an illustrative example. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Age-Structured Mathematical (ASM) model to evaluate, over an intermediate horizon (2010-2025), the effectiveness (number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection) of VMMC scale-up scenarios with varying proportions of HIV-positive males...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28114890/estimating-cardiovascular-disease-incidence-from-prevalence-a-spreadsheet-based-model
#9
Xue Feng Hu, Kue Young, Hing Man Chan
BACKGROUND: Disease incidence and prevalence are both core indicators of population health. Incidence is generally not as readily accessible as prevalence. Cohort studies and electronic health record systems are two major way to estimate disease incidence. The former is time-consuming and expensive; the latter is not available in most developing countries. Alternatively, mathematical models could be used to estimate disease incidence from prevalence. METHODS: We proposed and validated a method to estimate the age-standardized incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with prevalence data from successive surveys and mortality data from empirical studies...
January 23, 2017: BMC Medical Research Methodology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28108293/a-model-incorporating-combined-rtis-and-pis-therapy-during-early-hiv-1-infection
#10
Sutimin, F Chirove, E Soewono, N Nuraini, L B Suromo
We develop a within host mathematical model of HIV-1 infection describing the effects of combined RTIs and PIs treatments on early HIV-1 infection when treatment is captured using periodic functions of pharmacokinetics type. We use an alternative of the basic reproduction number to analyze endemicity level of HIV-1 infection. Various treatment scenarios incorporating perfect and imperfect drug adherence in drug administration are explored. Our results show that pharmacokinetics treatment is a more realistic way of administering the treatment...
March 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28095307/pre-exposure-prophylaxis-and-antiretroviral-treatment-interventions-with-drug-resistance
#11
REVIEW
Komi Afassinou, Faraimunashe Chirove, Keshlan S Govinder
We introduce a model for HIV/AIDS which can be utilized to assess the impact of combining pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) use interventions (incorporating drug resistance). Mathematical and numerical analyses are carried out to investigate the effects of the combined controls in the presence of PrEP drug resistance. Our results predict a significant decrease in the number of new HIV infections when PrEP and ARVs are concurrently implemented at high levels. The results also reveal that PrEP drug resistance has the potential to slow down or reverse the effects of PrEP, especially at low efficacy levels...
March 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28093460/a-double-edged-sword-does-highly-active-antiretroviral-therapy-contribute-to-syphilis-incidence-by-impairing-immunity-to-treponema-pallidum
#12
REVIEW
Michael L Rekart, Wilfred Ndifon, Robert C Brunham, Jonathan Dushoff, Sang Woo Park, Sanjana Rawat, Caroline E Cameron
BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Recently, the world has experienced a rapidly escalating outbreak of infectious syphilis primarily affecting men who have sex with men (MSM); many are taking highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for HIV-1 infection. The prevailing hypothesis is that HAART availability and effectiveness have led to the perception among both individuals who are HIV-1 infected and those who are uninfected that HIV-1 transmission has become much less likely, and the effects of HIV-1 infection less deadly...
January 16, 2017: Sexually Transmitted Infections
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092960/mathematical-analysis-and-dynamic-active-subspaces-for-a-long-term-model-of-hiv
#13
Tyson Loudon, Stephen Pankavich
a long-term model of HIV infection dynamics [8] was developed to describe the entire time course of the disease. It consists of a large system of ODEs with many parameters, and is expensive to simulate. In the current paper, this model is analyzed by determining all infection-free steady states and studying the local stability properties of the unique biologically-relevant equilibrium. Active subspace methods are then used to perform a global sensitivity analysis and study the dependence of an infected individual's T-cell count on the parameter space...
June 1, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28060881/individual-hiv-risk-versus-population-impact-of-risk-compensation-after-hiv-preexposure-prophylaxis-initiation-among-men-who-have-sex-with-men
#14
Samuel M Jenness, Akshay Sharma, Steven M Goodreau, Eli S Rosenberg, Kevin M Weiss, Karen W Hoover, Dawn K Smith, Patrick Sullivan
OBJECTIVES: Risk compensation (RC) could reduce or offset the biological prevention benefits of HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among those at substantial risk of infection, including men who have sex with men (MSM). We investigated the potential extent and causal mechanisms through which RC could impact HIV transmission at the population and individual levels. METHODS: Using a stochastic network-based mathematical model of HIV transmission dynamics among MSM in the United States, we simulated RC as a reduction in the probability of condom use after initiating PrEP, with heterogeneity by PrEP adherence profiles and partnership type in which RC occurred...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28060843/modeling-the-mechanisms-by-which-hiv-associated-immunosuppression-influences-hpv-persistence-at-the-oral-mucosa
#15
Meghna Verma, Samantha Erwin, Vida Abedi, Raquel Hontecillas, Stefan Hoops, Andrew Leber, Josep Bassaganya-Riera, Stanca M Ciupe
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients are at an increased risk of co-infection with human papilloma virus (HPV), and subsequent malignancies such as oral cancer. To determine the role of HIV-associated immune suppression on HPV persistence and pathogenesis, and to investigate the mechanisms underlying the modulation of HPV infection and oral cancer by HIV, we developed a mathematical model of HIV/HPV co-infection. Our model captures known immunological and molecular features such as impaired HPV-specific effector T helper 1 (Th1) cell responses, and enhanced HPV infection due to HIV...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28060813/using-chemical-reaction-kinetics-to-predict-optimal-antibiotic-treatment-strategies
#16
Pia Abel Zur Wiesch, Fabrizio Clarelli, Ted Cohen
Identifying optimal dosing of antibiotics has proven challenging-some antibiotics are most effective when they are administered periodically at high doses, while others work best when minimizing concentration fluctuations. Mechanistic explanations for why antibiotics differ in their optimal dosing are lacking, limiting our ability to predict optimal therapy and leading to long and costly experiments. We use mathematical models that describe both bacterial growth and intracellular antibiotic-target binding to investigate the effects of fluctuating antibiotic concentrations on individual bacterial cells and bacterial populations...
January 2017: PLoS Computational Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28011615/impact-and-cost-effectiveness-of-selective-human-papillomavirus-vaccination-of-men-who-have-sex-with-men
#17
Allen Lin, Koh J Ong, Peter Hobbelen, Eleanor King, David Mesher, W John Edmunds, Pam Sonnenberg, Richard Gilson, Irenjeet Bains, Yoon H Choi, Clare Tanton, Kate Soldan, Mark Jit
BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) have a high lifetime risk of anogenital warts and cancers related to infection with human papillomavirus (HPV). They also benefit less from herd protection than heterosexual males in settings with female-only HPV vaccination. METHODS: We evaluated the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of offering vaccination to MSM who visit genito-urinary medicine clinics. We used a mathematical model of HPV 6/11/16/18 sexual transmission within an MSM population in England, parameterised with sexual behaviour, GUM attendance, HPV prevalence, HIV prevalence, warts and cancer incidence data...
December 23, 2016: Clinical Infectious Diseases: An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28004616/age-and-time-dependent-prevalence-and-incidence-of-hepatitis-c-virus-infection-in-drug-users-in-france-2004-2011-model-based-estimation-from-two-national-cross-sectional-serosurveys
#18
L Leon, S Kasereka, F Barin, C Larsen, L Weill-Barillet, X Pascal, S Chevaliez, J Pillonel, M Jauffret-Roustide, Y LE Strat
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a public health issue worldwide. Injecting drug use remains the major mode of transmission in developed countries. Monitoring the HCV transmission dynamic over time is crucial, especially to assess the effect of harm reduction measures in drug users (DU). Our objective was to estimate the prevalence and incidence of HCV infection in DU in France using data from a repeated cross-sectional survey conducted in 2004 and 2011. Age- and time-dependent HCV prevalence was estimated through logistic regression models adjusted for HIV serostatus or injecting practices...
December 22, 2016: Epidemiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27997613/spatiotemporal-dynamics-of-virus-infection-spreading-in-tissues
#19
Gennady Bocharov, Andreas Meyerhans, Nickolai Bessonov, Sergei Trofimchuk, Vitaly Volpert
Virus spreading in tissues is determined by virus transport, virus multiplication in host cells and the virus-induced immune response. Cytotoxic T cells remove infected cells with a rate determined by the infection level. The intensity of the immune response has a bell-shaped dependence on the concentration of virus, i.e., it increases at low and decays at high infection levels. A combination of these effects and a time delay in the immune response determine the development of virus infection in tissues like spleen or lymph nodes...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27968864/hiv-testing-campaigns-and-treatment-interventions-for-control-of-epidemic-hiv-growth-among-heterosexuals-a-mathematical-modelling-study
#20
Ngai Sze Wong, Ka Hing Wong, Owen T Y Tsang, Man Po Lee, Shui Shan Lee
BACKGROUND: In 2015, WHO recommended universal antiretroviral treatment for HIV irrespective of CD4 cell count. The impact of this recommendation on heterosexual HIV transmission, especially in low prevalence countries, has not been well-characterised. In Hong Kong, 38% of reported HIV cases are heterosexually acquired. We aimed to model the impacts of enhanced HIV testing and immediate treatment to provide a reference to other provinces in China. METHODS: We developed deterministic compartmental models (sexually active heterosexual males and females) for simulation of HIV epidemiology for 1983-2011 in Hong Kong, with data projected to 2012-20...
October 2016: Lancet
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