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HIV mathematical modeling

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27912737/hcv-prevalence-can-predict-hiv-epidemic-potential-among-people-who-inject-drugs-mathematical-modeling-analysis
#1
Vajiheh Akbarzadeh, Ghina R Mumtaz, Susanne F Awad, Helen A Weiss, Laith J Abu-Raddad
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV are both transmitted through percutaneous exposures among people who inject drugs (PWID). Ecological analyses on global epidemiological data have identified a positive association between HCV and HIV prevalence among PWID. Our objective was to demonstrate how HCV prevalence can be used to predict HIV epidemic potential among PWID. METHODS: Two population-level models were constructed to simulate the evolution of HCV and HIV epidemics among PWID...
December 3, 2016: BMC Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27907076/clinical-determinants-of-hiv-1b-between-host-evolution-and-their-association-with-drug-resistance-in-pediatric-patients
#2
Israel Pagán, Patricia Rojas, José Tomás Ramos, África Holguín
Understanding the factors that modulate the evolution of virus populations is essential to design efficient control strategies. Mathematical models predict that factors affecting viral within-host evolution may also determine that at the between-host level. Although HIV-1 within-host evolution has been associated with clinical factors used to monitor AIDS progression, such as patient age, CD4 cells count, viral load, and antiretroviral experience, little is known about the role of these clinical factors in determining between-host HIV-1 evolution...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27883944/allocative-and-implementation-efficiency-in-hiv-prevention-and-treatment-for-people-who-inject-drugs
#3
Clemens Benedikt, Sherrie L Kelly, David Wilson, David P Wilson
BACKGROUND: Estimated global new HIV infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) remained stable over the 2010-2015 period and the target of a 50% reduction over this period was missed. To achieve the 2020 UNAIDS target of reducing adult HIV infections by 75% compared to 2010, accelerated action in scaling up HIV programs for PWID is required. In a context of diminishing external support to HIV programs in countries where most HIV-affected PWID live, it is essential that available resources are allocated and used as efficiently as possible...
November 21, 2016: International Journal on Drug Policy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27879478/occurrence-of-hiv-eradication-for-preexposure-prophylaxis-treatment-with-a-deterministic-hiv-model
#4
Hyeygjeon Chang, Claude Moog, Alessandro Astolfi
The authors examine the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) eradication in this study using a mathematical model and analyse the occurrence of virus eradication during the early stage of infection. To this end they use a deterministic HIV-infection model, modify it to describe the pharmacological dynamics of antiretroviral HIV drugs, and consider the clinical experimental results of preexposure prophylaxis HIV treatment. They also use numerical simulation to model the experimental scenario, thereby supporting the clinical results with a model-based explanation...
December 2016: IET Systems Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27831947/an-epidemiological-modelling-study-to-estimate-the-composition-of-hiv-positive-populations-including-migrants-from-endemic-settings-an-application-in-the-uk
#5
Fumiyo Nakagawa, Andrew Phillips
OBJECTIVE: Migrants account for a significant number of people living with HIV in Europe, and it is important to fully consider this population in national estimates. Using a novel approach with the UK as an example, we present key public health measures of the HIV epidemic, taking into account both in-country infections and infections likely to have been acquired abroad. DESIGN: Mathematical model calibrated to extensive data sources. METHODS: An individual-based stochastic simulation model is used to calibrate to routinely collected surveillance data in the UK...
November 7, 2016: AIDS
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27783613/voluntary-medical-male-circumcision-for-hiv-prevention-new-mathematical-models-for-strategic-demand-creation-prioritizing-subpopulations-by-age-and-geography
#6
Catherine Hankins, Mitchell Warren, Emmanuel Njeuhmeli
Over 11 million voluntary medical male circumcisions (VMMC) have been performed of the projected 20.3 million needed to reach 80% adult male circumcision prevalence in priority sub-Saharan African countries. Striking numbers of adolescent males, outside the 15-49-year-old age target, have been accessing VMMC services. What are the implications of overall progress in scale-up to date? Can mathematical modeling provide further insights on how to efficiently reach the male circumcision coverage levels needed to create and sustain further reductions in HIV incidence to make AIDS no longer a public health threat by 2030? Considering ease of implementation and cultural acceptability, decision makers may also value the estimates that mathematical models can generate of immediacy of impact, cost-effectiveness, and magnitude of impact resulting from different policy choices...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27782966/benefits-of-continuous-isoniazid-preventive-therapy-may-outweigh-resistance-risks-in-a-declining-tuberculosis-hiv-coepidemic
#7
Amber Kunkel, Forrest W Crawford, James Shepherd, Ted Cohen
OBJECTIVE: Extending the duration of isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) may improve its effectiveness at both individual and population levels, but could also increase selective pressure in favor of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis (TB) strains. The objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of these two effects. METHODS: Transmission dynamic model. DESIGN: We created a mathematical model of TB transmission incorporating HIV incidence and treatment, mixed strain latent TB infections, and four different phenotypes of TB drug resistance (pan-susceptible, isoniazid monoresistant, rifampicin monoresistant, and multidrug resistant)...
November 13, 2016: AIDS
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27771231/evaluating-strategies-to-improve-hiv-care-outcomes-in-kenya-a-modelling-study
#8
Jack J Olney, Paula Braitstein, Jeffrey W Eaton, Edwin Sang, Monicah Nyambura, Sylvester Kimaiyo, Ellen McRobie, Joseph W Hogan, Timothy B Hallett
BACKGROUND: With expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV mortality has decreased, yet life-years are still lost to AIDS. Strengthening of treatment programmes is a priority. We examined the state of an HIV care programme in Kenya and assessed interventions to improve the impact of ART programmes on population health. METHODS: We created an individual-based mathematical model to describe the HIV epidemic and the experiences of care among adults infected with HIV in Kenya...
December 2016: Lancet HIV
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27752283/design-and-engineering-of-a-transmissible-antiviral-defense
#9
Matthew L Paff, Scott L Nuismer, Andrew D Ellington, Ian J Molineux, Ryan H May, James J Bull
BACKGROUND: We propose, model, and implement a novel system of population-level intervention against a virus. One context is a treatment against a chronic infection such as HIV. The underlying principle is a form of virus 'wars' in which a benign, transmissible agent is engineered to protect against infection by and spread of a lethal virus. In our specific case, the protective agent consists of two entities, a benign virus and a gene therapy vector mobilized by the benign virus. RESULTS: Numerical analysis of a mathematical model identified parameter ranges in which adequate, population-wide protection is achieved...
2016: Journal of Biological Engineering
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27751627/a-structural-and-mathematical-modeling-analysis-of-the-likelihood-of-antibody-dependent-enhancement-in-influenza
#10
Boopathy Ramakrishnan, Karthik Viswanathan, Kannan Tharakaraman, Vlado Dančík, Rahul Raman, Gregory J Babcock, Zachary Shriver, Ram Sasisekharan
Broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (bNAbs) for viral infections, such as HIV, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza, are increasingly entering clinical development. For influenza, most neutralizing antibodies target influenza virus hemagglutinin. These bNAbs represent an emerging, promising modality for treatment and prophylaxis of influenza due to their multiple mechanisms of antiviral action and generally safe profile. Preclinical work in other viral diseases, such as dengue, has demonstrated the potential for antibody-based therapies to enhance viral uptake, leading to enhanced viremia and worsening of disease...
October 14, 2016: Trends in Microbiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27730851/mathematical-analysis-of-an-hiv-latent-infection-model-including-both-virus-to-cell-infection-and-cell-to-cell-transmission
#11
Xia Wang, Sanyi Tang, Xinyu Song, Libin Rong
HIV can infect cells via virus-to-cell infection or cell-to-cell viral transmission. These two infection modes may occur in a synergistic way and facilitate viral spread within an infected individual. In this paper, we developed an HIV latent infection model including both modes of transmission and time delays between viral entry and integration or viral production. We analysed the model by defining the basic reproductive number, showing the existence, positivity and boundedness of the solution, and proving the local and global stability of the infection-free and infected steady states...
October 12, 2016: Journal of Biological Dynamics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27716813/human-resources-for-treating-hiv-aids-are-the-preventive-effects-of-antiretroviral-treatment-a-game-changer
#12
Till Bärnighausen, David E Bloom, Salal Humair
Shortages of human resources for treating HIV/AIDS (HRHA) are a fundamental barrier to reaching universal antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage in developing countries. Previous studies suggest that recruiting HRHA to attain universal ART coverage poses an insurmountable challenge as ART significantly increases survival among HIV-infected individuals. While new evidence about ART's prevention benefits suggests fewer infections may mitigate the challenge, new policies such as treatment-as-prevention (TasP) will exacerbate it...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27712990/influence-of-concurrency-partner-choice-and-viral-suppression-on-racial-disparity-in-the-prevalence-of-hiv-infected-women
#13
K F Gurski, K A Hoffman
In 1992, Watts and May introduced a simple dynamical systems model of the spread of HIV based on disease transmission per partnership including the length of partnership duration. This model allowed for the treatment of concurrent partnerships, although it was hampered by the assumption of an important latent phase which generated a non-autonomous system. Subsequent models including concurrency have been based on networks, Monte Carlo, and stochastic simulations which lose a qualitative understanding of the effects of concurrency...
December 2016: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27706164/large-variations-in-hiv-1-viral-load-explained-by-shifting-mosaic-metapopulation-dynamics
#14
Katrina A Lythgoe, François Blanquart, Lorenzo Pellis, Christophe Fraser
The viral population of HIV-1, like many pathogens that cause systemic infection, is structured and differentiated within the body. The dynamics of cellular immune trafficking through the blood and within compartments of the body has also received wide attention. Despite these advances, mathematical models, which are widely used to interpret and predict viral and immune dynamics in infection, typically treat the infected host as a well-mixed homogeneous environment. Here, we present mathematical, analytical, and computational results that demonstrate that consideration of the spatial structure of the viral population within the host radically alters predictions of previous models...
October 2016: PLoS Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27704329/impact-of-population-recruitment-on-the-hiv-epidemics-and-the-effectiveness-of-hiv-prevention-interventions
#15
Yuqin Zhao, Daniel T Wood, Hristo V Kojouharov, Yang Kuang, Dobromir T Dimitrov
Mechanistic mathematical models are increasingly used to evaluate the effectiveness of different interventions for HIV prevention and to inform public health decisions. By focusing exclusively on the impact of the interventions, the importance of the demographic processes in these studies is often underestimated. In this paper, we use simple deterministic models to assess the effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis in reducing the HIV transmission and to explore the influence of the recruitment mechanisms on the epidemic and effectiveness projections...
October 2016: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27703992/deciphering-the-effects-of-injectable-pre-exposure-prophylaxis-for-combination-human-immunodeficiency-virus-prevention
#16
Robert L Glaubius, Urvi M Parikh, Greg Hood, Kerri J Penrose, Eran Bendavid, John W Mellors, Ume L Abbas
Background.  A long-acting injectable formulation of rilpivirine (RPV), under investigation as antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), may facilitate PrEP adherence. In contrast, cross-resistance between RPV and nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors comprising first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) could promote human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug resistance and reduce PrEP's effectiveness. Methods.  We use novel mathematical modeling of different RPV PrEP scale-up strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to investigate their effects on HIV prevention and drug resistance, compared with a reference scenario without PrEP...
September 2016: Open Forum Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27672183/dynamical-properties-and-thresholds-of-an-hiv-model-with-super-infection
#17
N J Malunguza, S D Hove-Musekwa, S Dube, Z Mukandavire
Super-infection by multiple HIV-1 subtypes, previously thought restricted to high risk groups, has now been reported in the general heterosexual populations at relatively the same incidence rate as in high risk groups. We present a simple deterministic HIV model with super-infection by two HIV-1 subtypes. Mathematical characteristics including the basic reproductive number [Formula: see text], invasion threshold [Formula: see text] and conditions for asymptotic stability are derived. In the absence of super-infection the model exhibits competitive exclusion, and all equilibria are globally attracting if they exist except for the disease free which is a saddle for [Formula: see text] The results show that the subtype with the dominant reproductive number exceeding unity dominates the weaker subtype forcing it to extinction regardless of the size of the reproductive number...
September 25, 2016: Mathematical Medicine and Biology: a Journal of the IMA
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27668463/modeling-the-effects-of-morphine-on-simian-immunodeficiency-virus-dynamics
#18
Naveen K Vaidya, Ruy M Ribeiro, Alan S Perelson, Anil Kumar
Complications of HIV-1 infection in individuals who utilize drugs of abuse is a significant problem, because these drugs have been associated with higher virus replication and accelerated disease progression as well as severe neuropathogenesis. To gain further insight it is important to quantify the effects of drugs of abuse on HIV-1 infection dynamics. Here, we develop a mathematical model that incorporates experimentally observed effects of morphine on inducing HIV-1 co-receptor expression. For comparison we also considered viral dynamic models with cytolytic or noncytolytic effector cell responses...
September 2016: PLoS Computational Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27665989/cost-effectiveness-analysis-of-pre-exposure-prophylaxis-for-hiv-1-prevention-in-the-netherlands-a-mathematical-modelling-study
#19
Brooke E Nichols, Charles A B Boucher, Marc van der Valk, Bart J A Rijnders, David A M C van de Vijver
BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine prevents HIV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM). PrEP can be given on a daily or intermittent basis. Unfortunately, PrEP is not reimbursed in most European countries. Cost-effectiveness analyses of PrEP among MSM in Europe are absent but are key for decision makers to decide upon PrEP implementation. METHODS: We developed a deterministic mathematical model, calibrated to the well defined Dutch HIV epidemic among MSM, to predict the effect and cost-effectiveness of PrEP...
September 22, 2016: Lancet Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27640347/a-contaminant-free-assessment-of-endogenous-retroviral-rna-in-human-plasma
#20
Timokratis Karamitros, Dimitrios Paraskevis, Angelos Hatzakis, Mina Psichogiou, Ioannis Elefsiniotis, Tara Hurst, Anna-Maria Geretti, Apostolos Beloukas, John Frater, Paul Klenerman, Aris Katzourakis, Gkikas Magiorkinis
Endogenous retroviruses (ERVs) comprise 6-8% of the human genome. HERVs are silenced in most normal tissues, up-regulated in stem cells and in placenta but also in cancer and HIV-1 infection. Crucially, there are conflicting reports on detecting HERV RNA in non-cellular clinical samples such as plasma that suggest the study of HERV RNA can be daunting. Indeed, we find that the use of real-time PCR in a quality assured clinical laboratory setting can be sensitive to low-level proviral contamination. We developed a mathematical model for low-level contamination that allowed us to design a laboratory protocol and standard operating procedures for robust measurement of HERV RNA...
September 19, 2016: Scientific Reports
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