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HIV mathematical modeling

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28202942/duration-of-shiv-production-by-infected-cells-is-not-exponentially-distributed-implications-for-estimates-of-infection-parameters-and-antiviral-efficacy
#1
Catherine A A Beauchemin, Tomoyuki Miura, Shingo Iwami
The duration of the eclipse phase, from cell infection to the production and release of the first virion progeny, immediately followed by the virus-production phase, from the first to the last virion progeny, are important steps in a viral infection, by setting the pace of infection progression and modulating the response to antiviral therapy. Using a mathematical model (MM) and data for the infection of HSC-F cells with SHIV in vitro, we reconfirm our earlier finding that the eclipse phase duration follows a fat-tailed distribution, lasting 19 h (18-20 h)...
February 16, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28202924/reevaluating-canada-s-policy-for-blood-donations-from-men-who-have-sex-with-men-msm
#2
Bellal Jubran, Maxime Billick, Gabriel Devlin, Jeremy Cygler, Bertrand Lebouché
During the HIV/AIDS epidemic of the 1980s, most of the developed world instituted a permanent ban on blood donations from men who have sex with men (MSM). In recent years, public health agencies across Europe and North America are reconsidering and rescinding these restrictions. We examine the Canadian climate, where MSM may donate blood only after a 5-year deferral period. We review circumstances of the initial ban on MSM blood donations and recent social, legal, and economic changes that have encouraged Canadian public health officials to consider policy reform...
December 2016: Journal of Public Health Policy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28118387/could-circumcision-of-hiv-positive-males-benefit-voluntary-medical-male-circumcision-programs-in-africa-mathematical-modeling-analysis
#3
Susanne F Awad, Sema K Sgaier, Fiona K Lau, Yousra A Mohamoud, Bushimbwa C Tambatamba, Katharine E Kripke, Anne G Thomas, Naomi Bock, Jason B Reed, Emmanuel Njeuhmeli, Laith J Abu-Raddad
BACKGROUND: The epidemiological and programmatic implications of inclusivity of HIV-positive males in voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs are uncertain. We modeled these implications using Zambia as an illustrative example. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Age-Structured Mathematical (ASM) model to evaluate, over an intermediate horizon (2010-2025), the effectiveness (number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection) of VMMC scale-up scenarios with varying proportions of HIV-positive males...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28114890/estimating-cardiovascular-disease-incidence-from-prevalence-a-spreadsheet-based-model
#4
Xue Feng Hu, Kue Young, Hing Man Chan
BACKGROUND: Disease incidence and prevalence are both core indicators of population health. Incidence is generally not as readily accessible as prevalence. Cohort studies and electronic health record systems are two major way to estimate disease incidence. The former is time-consuming and expensive; the latter is not available in most developing countries. Alternatively, mathematical models could be used to estimate disease incidence from prevalence. METHODS: We proposed and validated a method to estimate the age-standardized incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with prevalence data from successive surveys and mortality data from empirical studies...
January 23, 2017: BMC Medical Research Methodology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28108293/a-model-incorporating-combined-rtis-and-pis-therapy-during-early-hiv-1-infection
#5
Sutimin, F Chirove, E Soewono, N Nuraini, L B Suromo
We develop a within host mathematical model of HIV-1 infection describing the effects of combined RTIs and PIs treatments on early HIV-1 infection when treatment is captured using periodic functions of pharmacokinetics type. We use an alternative of the basic reproduction number to analyze endemicity level of HIV-1 infection. Various treatment scenarios incorporating perfect and imperfect drug adherence in drug administration are explored. Our results show that pharmacokinetics treatment is a more realistic way of administering the treatment...
March 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28095307/pre-exposure-prophylaxis-and-antiretroviral-treatment-interventions-with-drug-resistance
#6
REVIEW
Komi Afassinou, Faraimunashe Chirove, Keshlan S Govinder
We introduce a model for HIV/AIDS which can be utilized to assess the impact of combining pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) use interventions (incorporating drug resistance). Mathematical and numerical analyses are carried out to investigate the effects of the combined controls in the presence of PrEP drug resistance. Our results predict a significant decrease in the number of new HIV infections when PrEP and ARVs are concurrently implemented at high levels. The results also reveal that PrEP drug resistance has the potential to slow down or reverse the effects of PrEP, especially at low efficacy levels...
March 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28093460/a-double-edged-sword-does-highly-active-antiretroviral-therapy-contribute-to-syphilis-incidence-by-impairing-immunity-to-treponema-pallidum
#7
REVIEW
Michael L Rekart, Wilfred Ndifon, Robert C Brunham, Jonathan Dushoff, Sang Woo Park, Sanjana Rawat, Caroline E Cameron
BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Recently, the world has experienced a rapidly escalating outbreak of infectious syphilis primarily affecting men who have sex with men (MSM); many are taking highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for HIV-1 infection. The prevailing hypothesis is that HAART availability and effectiveness have led to the perception among both individuals who are HIV-1 infected and those who are uninfected that HIV-1 transmission has become much less likely, and the effects of HIV-1 infection less deadly...
January 16, 2017: Sexually Transmitted Infections
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092960/mathematical-analysis-and-dynamic-active-subspaces-for-a-long-term-model-of-hiv
#8
Tyson Loudon, Stephen Pankavich
a long-term model of HIV infection dynamics [8] was developed to describe the entire time course of the disease. It consists of a large system of ODEs with many parameters, and is expensive to simulate. In the current paper, this model is analyzed by determining all infection-free steady states and studying the local stability properties of the unique biologically-relevant equilibrium. Active subspace methods are then used to perform a global sensitivity analysis and study the dependence of an infected individual's T-cell count on the parameter space...
June 1, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28060881/individual-hiv-risk-versus-population-impact-of-risk-compensation-after-hiv-preexposure-prophylaxis-initiation-among-men-who-have-sex-with-men
#9
Samuel M Jenness, Akshay Sharma, Steven M Goodreau, Eli S Rosenberg, Kevin M Weiss, Karen W Hoover, Dawn K Smith, Patrick Sullivan
OBJECTIVES: Risk compensation (RC) could reduce or offset the biological prevention benefits of HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among those at substantial risk of infection, including men who have sex with men (MSM). We investigated the potential extent and causal mechanisms through which RC could impact HIV transmission at the population and individual levels. METHODS: Using a stochastic network-based mathematical model of HIV transmission dynamics among MSM in the United States, we simulated RC as a reduction in the probability of condom use after initiating PrEP, with heterogeneity by PrEP adherence profiles and partnership type in which RC occurred...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28060843/modeling-the-mechanisms-by-which-hiv-associated-immunosuppression-influences-hpv-persistence-at-the-oral-mucosa
#10
Meghna Verma, Samantha Erwin, Vida Abedi, Raquel Hontecillas, Stefan Hoops, Andrew Leber, Josep Bassaganya-Riera, Stanca M Ciupe
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients are at an increased risk of co-infection with human papilloma virus (HPV), and subsequent malignancies such as oral cancer. To determine the role of HIV-associated immune suppression on HPV persistence and pathogenesis, and to investigate the mechanisms underlying the modulation of HPV infection and oral cancer by HIV, we developed a mathematical model of HIV/HPV co-infection. Our model captures known immunological and molecular features such as impaired HPV-specific effector T helper 1 (Th1) cell responses, and enhanced HPV infection due to HIV...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28060813/using-chemical-reaction-kinetics-to-predict-optimal-antibiotic-treatment-strategies
#11
Pia Abel Zur Wiesch, Fabrizio Clarelli, Ted Cohen
Identifying optimal dosing of antibiotics has proven challenging-some antibiotics are most effective when they are administered periodically at high doses, while others work best when minimizing concentration fluctuations. Mechanistic explanations for why antibiotics differ in their optimal dosing are lacking, limiting our ability to predict optimal therapy and leading to long and costly experiments. We use mathematical models that describe both bacterial growth and intracellular antibiotic-target binding to investigate the effects of fluctuating antibiotic concentrations on individual bacterial cells and bacterial populations...
January 2017: PLoS Computational Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28011615/impact-and-cost-effectiveness-of-selective-human-papillomavirus-vaccination-of-men-who-have-sex-with-men
#12
Allen Lin, Koh J Ong, Peter Hobbelen, Eleanor King, David Mesher, W John Edmunds, Pam Sonnenberg, Richard Gilson, Irenjeet Bains, Yoon H Choi, Clare Tanton, Kate Soldan, Mark Jit
BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) have a high lifetime risk of anogenital warts and cancers related to infection with human papillomavirus (HPV). They also benefit less from herd protection than heterosexual males in settings with female-only HPV vaccination. METHODS: We evaluated the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of offering vaccination to MSM who visit genito-urinary medicine clinics. We used a mathematical model of HPV 6/11/16/18 sexual transmission within an MSM population in England, parameterised with sexual behaviour, GUM attendance, HPV prevalence, HIV prevalence, warts and cancer incidence data...
December 23, 2016: Clinical Infectious Diseases: An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28004616/age-and-time-dependent-prevalence-and-incidence-of-hepatitis-c-virus-infection-in-drug-users-in-france-2004-2011-model-based-estimation-from-two-national-cross-sectional-serosurveys
#13
L Leon, S Kasereka, F Barin, C Larsen, L Weill-Barillet, X Pascal, S Chevaliez, J Pillonel, M Jauffret-Roustide, Y LE Strat
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a public health issue worldwide. Injecting drug use remains the major mode of transmission in developed countries. Monitoring the HCV transmission dynamic over time is crucial, especially to assess the effect of harm reduction measures in drug users (DU). Our objective was to estimate the prevalence and incidence of HCV infection in DU in France using data from a repeated cross-sectional survey conducted in 2004 and 2011. Age- and time-dependent HCV prevalence was estimated through logistic regression models adjusted for HIV serostatus or injecting practices...
December 22, 2016: Epidemiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27997613/spatiotemporal-dynamics-of-virus-infection-spreading-in-tissues
#14
Gennady Bocharov, Andreas Meyerhans, Nickolai Bessonov, Sergei Trofimchuk, Vitaly Volpert
Virus spreading in tissues is determined by virus transport, virus multiplication in host cells and the virus-induced immune response. Cytotoxic T cells remove infected cells with a rate determined by the infection level. The intensity of the immune response has a bell-shaped dependence on the concentration of virus, i.e., it increases at low and decays at high infection levels. A combination of these effects and a time delay in the immune response determine the development of virus infection in tissues like spleen or lymph nodes...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27968864/hiv-testing-campaigns-and-treatment-interventions-for-control-of-epidemic-hiv-growth-among-heterosexuals-a-mathematical-modelling-study
#15
Ngai Sze Wong, Ka Hing Wong, Owen T Y Tsang, Man Po Lee, Shui Shan Lee
BACKGROUND: In 2015, WHO recommended universal antiretroviral treatment for HIV irrespective of CD4 cell count. The impact of this recommendation on heterosexual HIV transmission, especially in low prevalence countries, has not been well-characterised. In Hong Kong, 38% of reported HIV cases are heterosexually acquired. We aimed to model the impacts of enhanced HIV testing and immediate treatment to provide a reference to other provinces in China. METHODS: We developed deterministic compartmental models (sexually active heterosexual males and females) for simulation of HIV epidemiology for 1983-2011 in Hong Kong, with data projected to 2012-20...
October 2016: Lancet
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27956422/role-of-pyrazinamide-in-the-emergence-of-extensively-drug-resistant-tuberculosis-a-multi-strain-mathematical-model
#16
Mariam O Fofana, Sourya Shrestha, Gwenan M Knight, Ted Cohen, Richard G White, Frank Cobelens, David W Dowdy
Several infectious diseases of global importance - e.g. HIV, tuberculosis (TB) - require prolonged treatment with combination antimicrobial regimens, typically involving high-potency "core" agents coupled with additional "companion" drugs that protect against de novo emergence of mutations conferring resistance to the core agents. Often, the most effective (or least toxic) companion agents are re-used in sequential (first-line, second-line, etc…) regimens. We used a multi-strain model of M. tuberculosis transmission in Southeast Asia to investigate how this practice might facilitate the emergence of extensive drug resistance, i...
December 12, 2016: Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27912737/hcv-prevalence-can-predict-hiv-epidemic-potential-among-people-who-inject-drugs-mathematical-modeling-analysis
#17
Vajiheh Akbarzadeh, Ghina R Mumtaz, Susanne F Awad, Helen A Weiss, Laith J Abu-Raddad
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV are both transmitted through percutaneous exposures among people who inject drugs (PWID). Ecological analyses on global epidemiological data have identified a positive association between HCV and HIV prevalence among PWID. Our objective was to demonstrate how HCV prevalence can be used to predict HIV epidemic potential among PWID. METHODS: Two population-level models were constructed to simulate the evolution of HCV and HIV epidemics among PWID...
December 3, 2016: BMC Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27907076/clinical-determinants-of-hiv-1b-between-host-evolution-and-their-association-with-drug-resistance-in-pediatric-patients
#18
Israel Pagán, Patricia Rojas, José Tomás Ramos, África Holguín
Understanding the factors that modulate the evolution of virus populations is essential to design efficient control strategies. Mathematical models predict that factors affecting viral within-host evolution may also determine that at the between-host level. Although HIV-1 within-host evolution has been associated with clinical factors used to monitor AIDS progression, such as patient age, CD4 cells count, viral load, and antiretroviral experience, little is known about the role of these clinical factors in determining between-host HIV-1 evolution...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27883944/allocative-and-implementation-efficiency-in-hiv-prevention-and-treatment-for-people-who-inject-drugs
#19
Clemens Benedikt, Sherrie L Kelly, David Wilson, David P Wilson
BACKGROUND: Estimated global new HIV infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) remained stable over the 2010-2015 period and the target of a 50% reduction over this period was missed. To achieve the 2020 UNAIDS target of reducing adult HIV infections by 75% compared to 2010, accelerated action in scaling up HIV programs for PWID is required. In a context of diminishing external support to HIV programs in countries where most HIV-affected PWID live, it is essential that available resources are allocated and used as efficiently as possible...
December 2016: International Journal on Drug Policy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27879478/occurrence-of-hiv-eradication-for-preexposure-prophylaxis-treatment-with-a-deterministic-hiv-model
#20
Hyeygjeon Chang, Claude Moog, Alessandro Astolfi
The authors examine the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) eradication in this study using a mathematical model and analyse the occurrence of virus eradication during the early stage of infection. To this end they use a deterministic HIV-infection model, modify it to describe the pharmacological dynamics of antiretroviral HIV drugs, and consider the clinical experimental results of preexposure prophylaxis HIV treatment. They also use numerical simulation to model the experimental scenario, thereby supporting the clinical results with a model-based explanation...
December 2016: IET Systems Biology
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