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HIV mathematical modeling

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29447150/life-cycle-synchronization-is-a-viral-drug-resistance-mechanism
#1
Iulia A Neagu, Jason Olejarz, Mark Freeman, Daniel I S Rosenbloom, Martin A Nowak, Alison L Hill
Viral infections are one of the major causes of death worldwide, with HIV infection alone resulting in over 1.2 million casualties per year. Antiviral drugs are now being administered for a variety of viral infections, including HIV, hepatitis B and C, and influenza. These therapies target a specific phase of the virus's life cycle, yet their ultimate success depends on a variety of factors, such as adherence to a prescribed regimen and the emergence of viral drug resistance. The epidemiology and evolution of drug resistance have been extensively characterized, and it is generally assumed that drug resistance arises from mutations that alter the virus's susceptibility to the direct action of the drug...
February 2018: PLoS Computational Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29423424/what-will-it-take-to-reduce-hiv-incidence-in-the-united-states-a-mathematical-modeling-analysis
#2
Allison Perry, Parastu Kasaie, David W Dowdy, Maunank Shah
Background: The National HIV/AIDS Strategy has set ambitious goals to improve the epidemic in the United States. However, there is a paucity of usable program-level benchmarks tied to population-level epidemiologic goals. Our objective was to define tangible benchmarks for annual rates along the care continuum that are likely to translate to meaningful reductions in incidence. Methods: We used a validated mathematical model of HIV transmission and care engagement to characterize care continuum parameters that would translate into 50% reductions in incidence by 2025, compared with a base case scenario of the current US care continuum...
February 2018: Open Forum Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29422452/population-size-estimation-of-gay-and-bisexual-men-and-other-men-who-have-sex-with-men-using-social-media-based-platforms
#3
Stefan Baral, Rachael M Turner, Carrie E Lyons, Sean Howell, Brian Honermann, Alex Garner, Robert Hess, Daouda Diouf, George Ayala, Patrick S Sullivan, Greg Millett
BACKGROUND: Gay, bisexual, and other cisgender men who have sex with men (GBMSM) are disproportionately affected by the HIV pandemic. Traditionally, GBMSM have been deemed less relevant in HIV epidemics in low- and middle-income settings where HIV epidemics are more generalized. This is due (in part) to how important population size estimates regarding the number of individuals who identify as GBMSM are to informing the development and monitoring of HIV prevention, treatment, and care programs and coverage...
February 8, 2018: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29389769/using-contact-patterns-to-inform-hiv-interventions-in-persons-who-inject-drugs-in-northern-vietnam
#4
M Kumi Smith, Matthew Graham, Carl A Latkin, Vivian L Go
OBJECTIVES: Population mixing patterns can greatly inform allocation of HIV prevention interventions such as treatment as prevention (TasP) or preexposure prophyloaxis (PrEP). Characterizing contact patterns among subgroups can help identify the specific combinations of contact expected to result in the greatest number of new infections. SETTING: Baseline data from an intervention to reduce HIV related risk behaviors in male PWID the northern Vietnamese province of Thai Nguyen was used for the analysis...
January 30, 2018: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes: JAIDS
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29378611/episomal-hiv-1-dna-and-its-relationship-to-other-markers-of-hiv-1-persistence
#5
REVIEW
Javier Martinez-Picado, Ryan Zurakowski, María José Buzón, Mario Stevenson
Reverse transcription of HIV-1 results in the generation of a linear cDNA that serves as the precursor to the integrated provirus. Other classes of extrachromosomal viral cDNA molecules can be found in acutely infected cells including the 1-LTR and 2-LTR circles of viral DNA, also referred as episomal HIV-1 DNA. Circulating CD4+ T-cells of treatment-naïve individuals contain significant levels of unintegrated forms of HIV-1 DNA. However, the importance of episomal HIV-1 DNA in the study of viral persistence during antiviral therapy (ART) is debatable...
January 30, 2018: Retrovirology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29369827/hiv-positive-women-have-higher-risk-of-hpv-infection-precancerous-lesions-and-cervical-cancer-a-systematic-review-and-meta-analysis
#6
Gui Liu, Monisha Sharma, Nicholas Tan, Ruanne Barnabas
OBJECTIVES: HIV-positive women have higher human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence and cervical cancer (CC) incidence than HIV-negative women, partly due to HIV's modifying effect on HPV pathogenesis. We synthesized the literature on the impact of HIV on HPV natural history. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis METHODS:: We searched the literature for studies evaluating HPV acquisition and persistence or precancer progression by HIV status. Data on HPV natural history by HIV status, CD4+ cell counts, viral load, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) were summarized using fixed effect models...
January 24, 2018: AIDS
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29366939/statistical-design-of-experiment-doe-based-development-and-optimization-of-db213-in-situ-thermosensitive-gel-for-intranasal-delivery
#7
Qianwen Wang, Chun-Ho Wong, H Y Edwin Chan, Wai-Yip Lee, Zhong Zuo
DB213 is an HIV-1 replication inhibitor targeting the Central Nervous System for the treatment of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders. Current study aims to develop an in situ thermosensitive gelling system for intranasal delivery of DB213 facilitated by statistical Design of Experiment (DoE) to conduct a more efficient experimentation by extracting the maximum amount of information from limited experiments. In our current study, information was extracted from twenty-five experimental designs from MODDE® Software and a mathematical model was successfully developed to predict formulations to achieve desired performance as well as to analyze relationships between the amount of Pluronic F-127, Pluronic F-68, Chitosan, DB213 and the performances of in situ thermosensitive gels...
January 20, 2018: International Journal of Pharmaceutics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29326178/impact-of-replacing-cytology-with-human-papillomavirus-testing-for-cervical-cancer-screening-on-the-prevalence-of-trichomonas-vaginalis-a-modelling-study
#8
Ben B Hui, Caitlin P Reulein, Rebecca J Guy, Basil Donovan, Jane S Hocking, Matthew G Law, David G Regan
OBJECTIVES: Trichomonas vaginalis (TV) is the most common curable STI worldwide and is associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition and serious reproductive morbidities. The prevalence of TV infection is very low in Australian cities, and this is thought to be at least partly due to incidental detection and treatment of TV in women participating in the cervical cytology screening programme. In 2017, the national cervical screening programme will transition to a new model based on testing for high-risk (HR) human papillomavirus (HPV), with a reduced frequency and commencement at an older age...
January 11, 2018: Sexually Transmitted Infections
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29324226/human-specific-adaptations-in-vpu-conferring-anti-tetherin-activity-are-critical-for-efficient-early-hiv-1-replication-in%C3%A2-vivo
#9
Eri Yamada, Shinji Nakaoka, Lukas Klein, Elisabeth Reith, Simon Langer, Kristina Hopfensperger, Shingo Iwami, Gideon Schreiber, Frank Kirchhoff, Yoshio Koyanagi, Daniel Sauter, Kei Sato
The HIV-1-encoded accessory protein Vpu exerts several immunomodulatory functions, including counteraction of the host restriction factor tetherin, downmodulation of CD4, and inhibition of NF-κB activity to facilitate HIV-1 infection. However, the relative contribution of individual Vpu functions to HIV-1 infection in vivo remained unclear. Here, we used a humanized mouse model and HIV-1 strains with selective mutations in vpu to demonstrate that the anti-tetherin activity of Vpu is a prerequisite for efficient viral spread during the early phase of infection...
January 10, 2018: Cell Host & Microbe
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29282597/mathematical-analysis-of-the-transmission-dynamics-of-hiv-syphilis-co-infection-in-the-presence-of-treatment-for-syphilis
#10
A Nwankwo, D Okuonghae
The re-emergence of syphilis has become a global public health issue, and more persons are getting infected, especially in developing countries. This has also led to an increase in the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections as some studies have shown in the recent decade. This paper investigates the synergistic interaction between HIV and syphilis using a mathematical model that assesses the impact of syphilis treatment on the dynamics of syphilis and HIV co-infection in a human population where HIV treatment is not readily available or accessible to HIV-infected individuals...
December 27, 2017: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29232366/estimating-the-impact-of-antiretroviral-treatment-on-adult-mortality-trends-in-south-africa-a-mathematical-modelling-study
#11
Leigh F Johnson, Margaret T May, Rob E Dorrington, Morna Cornell, Andrew Boulle, Matthias Egger, Mary-Ann Davies
BACKGROUND: Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Model estimates of mortality rates in ART patients were obtained from the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration...
December 2017: PLoS Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29223580/modeling-hiv-disease-progression-and-transmission-at-population-level-the-potential-impact-of-modifying-disease-progression-in-hiv-treatment-programs
#12
Jennifer M Ross, Roger Ying, Connie L Celum, Jared M Baeten, Katherine K Thomas, Pamela M Murnane, Heidi van Rooyen, James P Hughes, Ruanne V Barnabas
INTRODUCTION: Mathematical models that incorporate HIV disease progression dynamics can estimate the potential impact of strategies that delay HIV disease progression and reduce infectiousness for persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Suppressive treatment of HIV-positive persons co-infected with herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) with valacyclovir, an HSV-2 antiviral, can lower HIV viral load, but the impact of partially-suppressive valacyclovir relative to fully-suppressive ART on population HIV transmission has not been estimated...
December 5, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29220115/hiv-prevention-where-it-is-needed-most-comparison-of-strategies-for-the-geographical-allocation-of-interventions
#13
Sarah-Jane Anderson, Peter D Ghys, Regina Ombam, Timothy B Hallett
INTRODUCTION: A strategic approach to the application of HIV prevention interventions is a core component of the UNAIDS Fast Track strategy to end the HIV epidemic by 2030. Central to these plans is a focus on high-prevalence geographies, in a bid to target resources to those in greatest need and maximize the reduction in new infections. Whilst this idea of geographical prioritization has the potential to improve efficiency, it is unclear how it should be implemented in practice. There are a range of prevention interventions which can be applied differentially across risk groups and locations, making allocation decisions complex...
December 2017: Journal of the International AIDS Society
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29182894/evaluating-the-evidence-for-more-frequent-than-annual-hiv-screening-of-gay-bisexual-and-other-men-who-have-sex-with-men-in-the-united-states-results-from-a-systematic-review-and-cdc-expert-consultation
#14
Elizabeth A DiNenno, Joseph Prejean, Kevin P Delaney, Kristina Bowles, Tricia Martin, Amrita Tailor, Gema Dumitru, Mary M Mullins, Angela Hutchinson, Amy Lansky
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended in 2006 that sexually active gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) be screened for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) at least annually. A workgroup comprising CDC and external experts conducted a systematic review of the literature, including benefits, harms, acceptability, and feasibility of annual versus more frequent screening among MSM, to determine whether evidence was sufficient to change the current recommendation. Four consultations with managers of public and nonprofit HIV testing programs, clinics, and mathematical modeling experts were conducted to provide input on the programmatic and scientific evidence...
January 1, 2017: Public Health Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29171179/optimal-timing-of-viral-load-monitoring-during-pregnancy-to-predict-viraemia-at-delivery-in-hiv-infected-women-initiating-art-in-south-africa-a-simulation-study
#15
Maia Lesosky, Tracy Glass, Elton Mukonda, Nei-Yuan Hsiao, Elaine J Abrams, Landon Myer
INTRODUCTION: HIV viral load (VL) monitoring is a central tool to evaluate ART effectiveness and transmission risk. There is a global movement to expand VL monitoring following recent recommendations from the World Health Organization (WHO), but there has been little research into VL monitoring in pregnant women. We investigated one important question in this area: when and how frequently VL should be monitored in women initiating ART during pregnancy to predict VL at the time of delivery in a simulated South African population...
November 2017: Journal of the International AIDS Society
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29164341/mathematical-models-of-hiv-latency
#16
Alison L Hill
Viral latency is a major barrier to curing HIV infection with antiretroviral therapy, and consequently, for eliminating the disease globally. The establishment, maintenance, and potential clearance of latent infection are complex dynamic processes and can be best understood and described with the help of mathematical models. Here we review the use of viral dynamics models for HIV, with a focus on applications to the latent reservoir. Such models have been used to explain the multiphasic decay of viral load during antiretroviral therapy, the early seeding of the latent reservoir during acute infection and the limited inflow during treatment, the dynamics of viral blips, and the phenomenon of posttreatment control...
November 22, 2017: Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29161835/three-level-global-resource-allocation-model-for-hiv-control-a-hierarchical-decision-system-approach
#17
Semu Mitiku Kassa
Funds from various global organizations, such as, The Global Fund, The World Bank, etc. are not directly distributed to the targeted risk groups. Especially in the so-called third-world-countries, the major part of the fund in HIV prevention programs comes from these global funding organizations. The allocations of these funds usually pass through several levels of decision making bodies that have their own specific parameters to control and specific objectives to achieve. However, these decisions are made mostly in a heuristic manner and this may lead to a non-optimal allocation of the scarce resources...
February 1, 2018: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29161831/an-exact-approach-to-calibrating-infectious-disease-models-to-surveillance-data-the-case-of-hiv-and-hsv-2
#18
David J Gerberry
When mathematical models of infectious diseases are used to inform health policy, an important first step is often to calibrate a model to disease surveillance data for a specific setting (or multiple settings). It is increasingly common to also perform sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the robustness, or lack thereof, of the modeling results. Doing so requires the modeler to find multiple parameter sets for which the model produces behavior that is consistent with the surveillance data. While frequently overlooked, the calibration process is nontrivial at best and can be inefficient, poorly communicated and a major hurdle to the overall reproducibility of modeling results...
February 1, 2018: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29135576/assisted-partner-notification-services-are-cost-effective-for-decreasing-hiv-burden-in-western-kenya-a-mathematical-modeling-analysis
#19
Monisha Sharma, Jennifer A Smith, Carey Farquhar, Roger Ying, Peter Cherutich, Matthew Golden, Beatrice Wamuti, David Bukusi, Hans Spiegel, Ruanne V Barnabas
BACKGROUND: Assisted partner services (aPS) or provider notification for sexual partners of persons diagnosed HIV-positive can increase HIV testing and linkage in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and is a high yield strategy to identify HIV-positive persons. However, its cost-effectiveness is not well-evaluated. METHODS: Using effectiveness and cost data from an aPS trial in Kenya, we parameterized an individual-based, dynamic HIV transmission model. We estimated costs for both a program scenario and a task-shifting scenario using community health workers to conduct the intervention...
November 10, 2017: AIDS
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29129712/estimating-the-annual-risk-of-hiv-transmission-within-hiv-sero-discordant-couples-in-sub-saharan-africa
#20
Susanne F Awad, Hiam Chemaitelly, Laith J Abu-Raddad
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual risk of HIV transmission (ϕ) within HIV sero-discordant couples in 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), by utilizing newly-available national population-based data and accounting for factors known to potentially affect this estimation. METHODS: We used a recently-developed pair-based mathematical model that accommodates for HIV-dynamics temporal variation, sexual risk-behavior heterogeneity, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up...
November 9, 2017: International Journal of Infectious Diseases: IJID
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