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HIV mathematical modeling

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28432579/hcv-cure-and-reinfection-among-people-with-hiv-hcv-coinfection-and-people-who-inject-drugs
#1
REVIEW
Marianne Martinello, Behzad Hajarizadeh, Jason Grebely, Gregory J Dore, Gail V Matthews
PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Highly effective, well-tolerated interferon-free direct-acting antivirals (DAA) have revolutionised hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapeutics, with the opportunity for broad treatment scale-up among marginalised or "high-risk" populations, including people who inject drugs (PWID) and people with HIV/HCV coinfection. RECENT FINDINGS: Concern that HCV reinfection may compromise HCV treatment outcomes is sometimes cited as a reason for not offering treatment to current and former PWID...
April 21, 2017: Current HIV/AIDS Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28431573/a-highly-pathogenic-simian-human-immunodeficiency-virus-effectively-produces-infectious-virions-compared-with-a-less-pathogenic-virus-in-cell-culture
#2
Shoya Iwanami, Yusuke Kakizoe, Satoru Morita, Tomoyuki Miura, Shinji Nakaoka, Shingo Iwami
BACKGROUND: The host range of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is quite narrow. Therefore, analyzing HIV-1 pathogenesis in vivo has been limited owing to lack of appropriate animal model systems. To overcome this, chimeric simian and human immunodeficiency viruses (SHIVs) that encode HIV-1 Env and are infectious to macaques have been developed and used to investigate the pathogenicity of HIV-1 in vivo. So far, we have many SHIV strains that show different pathogenesis in macaque experiments...
April 21, 2017: Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28404854/autologous-stem-cell-transplantation-disrupts-adaptive-immune-responses-during-rebound-shiv-viremia
#3
Daniel B Reeves, Christopher W Peterson, Hans-Peter Kiem, Joshua T Schiffer
Primary HIV-1 infection induces a virus-specific adaptive/cytolytic immune response that impacts plasma viral load setpoint and rate of progression to AIDS. Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) suppresses plasma viremia to undetectable levels that rebound upon cART treatment interruption. Following cART withdrawal, the memory component of the virus-specific adaptive immune response may improve viral control compared to primary infection. Here, using primary infection and treatment interruption data from macaques infected with simian/human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV), we observe lower peak viral load but unchanged viral setpoint during viral rebound...
April 12, 2017: Journal of Virology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28403211/the-potential-impact-and-cost-of-focusing-hiv-prevention-on-young-women-and-men-a-modeling-analysis-in-western-kenya
#4
Ramzi A Alsallaq, Jasmine Buttolph, Charles M Cleland, Timothy Hallett, Irene Inwani, Kawango Agot, Ann E Kurth
OBJECTIVE: We compared the impact and costs of HIV prevention strategies focusing on youth (15-24 year-old persons) versus on adults (15+ year-old persons), in a high-HIV burden context of a large generalized epidemic. DESIGN: Compartmental age-structured mathematical model of HIV transmission in Nyanza, Kenya. INTERVENTIONS: The interventions focused on youth were high coverage HIV testing (80% of youth), treatment at diagnosis (TasP, i.e...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28399137/the-importance-of-choice-disability-and-structural-intervention-in-the-hiv-epidemic-in-sub-saharan-africa
#5
Rebecca de Boer, Jeffrey Musgrave, Neil Andersson, Frithjof Lutscher
BACKGROUND: Despite massive investment in HIV control programs, HIV incidence rates in countries with generalized epidemics have not fallen for most of the last decade. It appears that those at risk are not adopting effective prevention strategies. Those who are unable to implement their prevention preferences are referred to as choice disabled. We examined how and to what extent structural intervention measures that support choice-disabled individuals can reduce HIV transmission and prevalence...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28358389/quantitative-analysis-of-molecular-partition-towards-lipid-membranes-using-surface-plasmon-resonance
#6
Tiago N Figueira, João M Freire, Catarina Cunha-Santos, Montserrat Heras, João Gonçalves, Anne Moscona, Matteo Porotto, Ana Salomé Veiga, Miguel A R B Castanho
Understanding the interplay between molecules and lipid membranes is fundamental when studying cellular and biotechnological phenomena. Partition between aqueous media and lipid membranes is key to the mechanism of action of many biomolecules and drugs. Quantifying membrane partition, through adequate and robust parameters, is thus essential. Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) is a powerful technique for studying 1:1 stoichiometric interactions but has limited application to lipid membrane partition data. We have developed and applied a novel mathematical model for SPR data treatment that enables determination of kinetic and equilibrium partition constants...
March 30, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28344385/a-dynamical-modeling-approach-for-analysis-of-longitudinal-clinical-trials-in-the-presence-of-missing-endpoints
#7
H T Banks, Shuhua Hu, Eric Rosenberg
Randomized longitudinal clinical trials are the gold standard to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions among different patient treatment groups. However, analysis of such clinical trials becomes difficult in the presence of missing data, especially in the case where the study endpoints become difficult to measure because of subject dropout rates or/and the time to discontinue the assigned interventions are different among the patient groups. Here we report on using a validated mathematical model combined with an inverse problem approach to predict the values for the missing endpoints...
January 2017: Applied Mathematics Letters
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28320938/effectiveness-of-unaids-targets-and-hiv-vaccination-across-127-countries
#8
Jan Medlock, Abhishek Pandey, Alyssa S Parpia, Amber Tang, Laura A Skrip, Alison P Galvani
The HIV pandemic continues to impose enormous morbidity, mortality, and economic burdens across the globe. Simultaneously, innovations in antiretroviral therapy, diagnostic approaches, and vaccine development are providing novel tools for treatment-as-prevention and prophylaxis. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the added benefit of an HIV vaccine in the context of goals to increase rates of diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression in 127 countries. Under status quo interventions, we predict a median of 49 million [first and third quartiles 44M, 58M] incident cases globally from 2015 to 2035...
April 11, 2017: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28296801/accounting-for-nonsampling-error-in-estimates-of-hiv-epidemic-trends-from-antenatal-clinic-sentinel-surveillance
#9
Jeffrey W Eaton, Le Bao
OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to propose and demonstrate an approach to allow additional nonsampling uncertainty about HIV prevalence measured at antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance (ANC-SS) in model-based inferences about trends in HIV incidence and prevalence. DESIGN: Mathematical model fitted to surveillance data with Bayesian inference. METHODS: We introduce a variance inflation parameter (Equation is included in full-text article...
April 2017: AIDS
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28274904/gender-specific-combination-hiv-prevention-for-youth-in-high-burden-settings-the-mp3-youth-observational-pilot-study-protocol
#10
Jasmine Buttolph, Irene Inwani, Kawango Agot, Charles M Cleland, Peter Cherutich, James N Kiarie, Alfred Osoti, Connie L Celum, Jared M Baeten, Ruth Nduati, John Kinuthia, Timothy B Hallett, Ramzi Alsallaq, Ann E Kurth
BACKGROUND: Nearly three decades into the epidemic, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains the region most heavily affected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), with nearly 70% of the 34 million people living with HIV globally residing in the region. In SSA, female and male youth (15 to 24 years) are at a disproportionately high risk of HIV infection compared to adults. As such, there is a need to target HIV prevention strategies to youth and to tailor them to a gender-specific context. This protocol describes the process for the multi-staged approach in the design of the MP3 Youth pilot study, a gender-specific, combination, HIV prevention intervention for youth in Kenya...
March 8, 2017: JMIR Research Protocols
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28237668/mathematical-modeling-of-hiv-like-particle-assembly-in-vitro
#11
Yuewu Liu, Xiufen Zou
In vitro, the recombinant HIV-1 Gag protein can generate spherical particles with a diameter of 25-30 nm in a fully defined system. It has approximately 80 building blocks, and its intermediates for assembly are abundant in geometry. Accordingly, there are a large number of nonlinear equations in the classical model. Therefore, it is difficult to compute values of geometry parameters for intermediates and make the mathematical analysis using the model. In this work, we develop a new model of HIV-like particle assembly in vitro by using six-fold symmetry of HIV-like particle assembly to decrease the number of geometry parameters...
February 22, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28220205/global-properties-of-nested-network-model-with-application-to-multi-epitope-hiv-ctl-dynamics
#12
Cameron Browne
Mathematical modeling and analysis can provide insight on the dynamics of ecosystems which maintain biodiversity in the face of competitive and prey-predator interactions. Of primary interests are the underlying structure and features which stabilize diverse ecological networks. Recently Korytowski and Smith (Theor Ecol 8(1):111-120, 2015) proved that a perfectly nested infection network, along with appropriate life history trade-offs, leads to coexistence and persistence of bacteria-phage communities in a chemostat model...
February 20, 2017: Journal of Mathematical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28202942/duration-of-shiv-production-by-infected-cells-is-not-exponentially-distributed-implications-for-estimates-of-infection-parameters-and-antiviral-efficacy
#13
Catherine A A Beauchemin, Tomoyuki Miura, Shingo Iwami
The duration of the eclipse phase, from cell infection to the production and release of the first virion progeny, immediately followed by the virus-production phase, from the first to the last virion progeny, are important steps in a viral infection, by setting the pace of infection progression and modulating the response to antiviral therapy. Using a mathematical model (MM) and data for the infection of HSC-F cells with SHIV in vitro, we reconfirm our earlier finding that the eclipse phase duration follows a fat-tailed distribution, lasting 19 h (18-20 h)...
February 16, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28202924/reevaluating-canada-s-policy-for-blood-donations-from-men-who-have-sex-with-men-msm
#14
Bellal Jubran, Maxime Billick, Gabriel Devlin, Jeremy Cygler, Bertrand Lebouché
During the HIV/AIDS epidemic of the 1980s, most of the developed world instituted a permanent ban on blood donations from men who have sex with men (MSM). In recent years, public health agencies across Europe and North America are reconsidering and rescinding these restrictions. We examine the Canadian climate, where MSM may donate blood only after a 5-year deferral period. We review circumstances of the initial ban on MSM blood donations and recent social, legal, and economic changes that have encouraged Canadian public health officials to consider policy reform...
December 2016: Journal of Public Health Policy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28118387/could-circumcision-of-hiv-positive-males-benefit-voluntary-medical-male-circumcision-programs-in-africa-mathematical-modeling-analysis
#15
Susanne F Awad, Sema K Sgaier, Fiona K Lau, Yousra A Mohamoud, Bushimbwa C Tambatamba, Katharine E Kripke, Anne G Thomas, Naomi Bock, Jason B Reed, Emmanuel Njeuhmeli, Laith J Abu-Raddad
BACKGROUND: The epidemiological and programmatic implications of inclusivity of HIV-positive males in voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs are uncertain. We modeled these implications using Zambia as an illustrative example. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Age-Structured Mathematical (ASM) model to evaluate, over an intermediate horizon (2010-2025), the effectiveness (number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection) of VMMC scale-up scenarios with varying proportions of HIV-positive males...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28114890/estimating-cardiovascular-disease-incidence-from-prevalence-a-spreadsheet-based-model
#16
Xue Feng Hu, Kue Young, Hing Man Chan
BACKGROUND: Disease incidence and prevalence are both core indicators of population health. Incidence is generally not as readily accessible as prevalence. Cohort studies and electronic health record systems are two major way to estimate disease incidence. The former is time-consuming and expensive; the latter is not available in most developing countries. Alternatively, mathematical models could be used to estimate disease incidence from prevalence. METHODS: We proposed and validated a method to estimate the age-standardized incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with prevalence data from successive surveys and mortality data from empirical studies...
January 23, 2017: BMC Medical Research Methodology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28108293/a-model-incorporating-combined-rtis-and-pis-therapy-during-early-hiv-1-infection
#17
Sutimin, F Chirove, E Soewono, N Nuraini, L B Suromo
We develop a within host mathematical model of HIV-1 infection describing the effects of combined RTIs and PIs treatments on early HIV-1 infection when treatment is captured using periodic functions of pharmacokinetics type. We use an alternative of the basic reproduction number to analyze endemicity level of HIV-1 infection. Various treatment scenarios incorporating perfect and imperfect drug adherence in drug administration are explored. Our results show that pharmacokinetics treatment is a more realistic way of administering the treatment...
March 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28095307/pre-exposure-prophylaxis-and-antiretroviral-treatment-interventions-with-drug-resistance
#18
REVIEW
Komi Afassinou, Faraimunashe Chirove, Keshlan S Govinder
We introduce a model for HIV/AIDS which can be utilized to assess the impact of combining pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) use interventions (incorporating drug resistance). Mathematical and numerical analyses are carried out to investigate the effects of the combined controls in the presence of PrEP drug resistance. Our results predict a significant decrease in the number of new HIV infections when PrEP and ARVs are concurrently implemented at high levels. The results also reveal that PrEP drug resistance has the potential to slow down or reverse the effects of PrEP, especially at low efficacy levels...
March 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28093460/a-double-edged-sword-does-highly-active-antiretroviral-therapy-contribute-to-syphilis-incidence-by-impairing-immunity-to-treponema-pallidum
#19
REVIEW
Michael L Rekart, Wilfred Ndifon, Robert C Brunham, Jonathan Dushoff, Sang Woo Park, Sanjana Rawat, Caroline E Cameron
BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Recently, the world has experienced a rapidly escalating outbreak of infectious syphilis primarily affecting men who have sex with men (MSM); many are taking highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for HIV-1 infection. The prevailing hypothesis is that HAART availability and effectiveness have led to the perception among both individuals who are HIV-1 infected and those who are uninfected that HIV-1 transmission has become much less likely, and the effects of HIV-1 infection less deadly...
January 16, 2017: Sexually Transmitted Infections
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092960/mathematical-analysis-and-dynamic-active-subspaces-for-a-long-term-model-of-hiv
#20
Tyson Loudon, Stephen Pankavich
a long-term model of HIV infection dynamics [8] was developed to describe the entire time course of the disease. It consists of a large system of ODEs with many parameters, and is expensive to simulate. In the current paper, this model is analyzed by determining all infection-free steady states and studying the local stability properties of the unique biologically-relevant equilibrium. Active subspace methods are then used to perform a global sensitivity analysis and study the dependence of an infected individual's T-cell count on the parameter space...
June 1, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
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