Jingzhi Lou, Weiwen Liang, Lirong Cao, Inchi Hu, Shi Zhao, Zigui Chen, Renee Wan Yi Chan, Peter Pak Hang Cheung, Hong Zheng, Caiqi Liu, Qi Li, Marc Ka Chun Chong, Yexian Zhang, Eng-Kiong Yeoh, Paul Kay-Sheung Chan, Benny Chung Ying Zee, Chris Ka Pun Mok, Maggie Haitian Wang
Influenza virus continuously evolves to escape human adaptive immunity and generates seasonal epidemics. Therefore, influenza vaccine strains need to be updated annually for the upcoming flu season to ensure vaccine effectiveness. We develop a computational approach, beth-1, to forecast virus evolution and select representative virus for influenza vaccine. The method involves modelling site-wise mutation fitness. Informed by virus genome and population sero-positivity, we calibrate transition time of mutations and project the fitness landscape to future time, based on which beth-1 selects the optimal vaccine strain...
March 21, 2024: Nature Communications