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Calibration logistic regression

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27919934/development-and-validation-of-risk-prediction-model-for-venous-thromboembolism-in-postpartum-women-multinational-cohort-study
#1
Alyshah Abdul Sultan, Joe West, Matthew J Grainge, Richard D Riley, Laila J Tata, Olof Stephansson, Kate M Fleming, Catherine Nelson-Piercy, Jonas F Ludvigsson
OBJECTIVE:  To develop and validate a risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism in the first six weeks after delivery (early postpartum). DESIGN:  Cohort study. SETTING:  Records from England based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and data from Sweden based registry. PARTICIPANTS:  All pregnant women registered with CPRD-HES linked data between 1997 and 2014 and Swedish medical birth registry between 2005 and 2011 with postpartum follow-up...
December 5, 2016: BMJ: British Medical Journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27917662/validating-a-benchmarking-tool-for-audit-of-early-outcomes-after-operations-for-head-and-neck-cancer
#2
D Tighe, I Sassoon, M McGurk
INTRODUCTION In 2013 all UK surgical specialties, with the exception of head and neck surgery, published outcome data adjusted for case mix for indicator operations. This paper reports a pilot study to validate a previously published risk adjustment score on patients from separate UK cancer centres. METHODS A case note audit was performed of 1,075 patients undergoing 1,218 operations for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma under general anaesthesia in 4 surgical centres. A logistic regression equation predicting for all complications, previously validated internally at sites A-C, was tested on a fourth external validation sample (site D, 172 operations) using receiver operating characteristic curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit analysis and Brier scores...
December 5, 2016: Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27916478/development-and-external-validation-of-a-model-predicting-death-after-surgery-in-patients-with-a-ruptured-abdominal-aortic-aneurysm-the-dutch-aneurysm-score
#3
G C I von Meijenfeldt, S C van Beek, F Bastos Gonçalves, H J M Verhagen, C J Zeebregts, A C Vahl, W Wisselink, M J van der Laan, R Balm
OBJECTIVE: The decision whether or not to proceed with surgical intervention of a patient with a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) is very difficult in daily practice. The primary objective of the present study was to develop and to externally validate a new prediction model: the Dutch Aneurysm Score (DAS). METHODS: With a prospective cohort of 10 hospitals (n = 508) the DAS was developed using a multivariate logistic regression model. Two retrospective cohorts with rAAA patients from two hospitals (n = 373) were used for external validation...
December 1, 2016: European Journal of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27912757/the-sydney-triage-to-admission-risk-tool-start-to-predict-emergency-department-disposition-a-derivation-and-internal-validation-study-using-retrospective-state-wide-data-from-new-south-wales-australia
#4
Michael M Dinh, Saartje Berendsen Russell, Kendall J Bein, Kris Rogers, David Muscatello, Richard Paoloni, Jon Hayman, Dane R Chalkley, Rebecca Ivers
BACKGROUND: Disposition decisions are critical to the functioning of Emergency Departments. The objectives of the present study were to derive and internally validate a prediction model for inpatient admission from the Emergency Department to assist with triage, patient flow and clinical decision making. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of State-wide Emergency Department data in New South Wales, Australia. Adult patients (age ≥ 16 years) were included if they presented to a Level five or six (tertiary level) Emergency Department in New South Wales, Australia between 2013 and 2014...
December 3, 2016: BMC Emergency Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27901203/case-control-study-examining-the-impact-of-oral-health-problems-on-the-quality-of-life-of-the-families-of-preschoolers
#5
Ramon Targino Firmino, Monalisa Cesarino Gomes, Raquel Gonçalves Vieira-Andrade, Carolina Castro Martins, Saul Martins Paiva, Ana Flávia Granville-Garcia
The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of dental caries, traumatic dental injuries (TDI), toothaches, and malocclusion on the oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) of the families of Brazilian preschool children. A population-based, matched case-control study involving 415 pre-schoolers aged 3-5 years was conducted. The case (impact on OHRQoL) and control groups (no impact on OHRQoL) were matched for age, gender, and family income at an 1:4 ratio. Impact on the OHRQoL of a family was assessed using the Brazilian version of the Early Childhood Oral Health Impact Scale (B-ECOHIS)...
November 28, 2016: Brazilian Oral Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27899533/the-integrative-weaning-index-in-elderly-icu-subjects
#6
Leandro M Azeredo, Sérgio N Nemer, Carmen Sv Barbas, Jefferson B Caldeira, Rosângela Noé, Bruno L Guimarães, Célia P Caldas
BACKGROUND: With increasing life expectancy and ICU admission of elderly patients, mechanical ventilation, and weaning trials have increased worldwide. METHODS: We evaluated a cohort with 479 subjects in the ICU. Patients younger than 18 y, tracheostomized, or with neurologic diseases were excluded, resulting in 331 subjects. Subjects ≥70 y old were considered elderly, whereas those <70 y old were considered non-elderly. Besides the conventional weaning indexes, we evaluated the performance of the integrative weaning index (IWI)...
November 29, 2016: Respiratory Care
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27892612/the-prevalence-of-depressive-symptoms-among-older-patients-with-hypertension-in-rural-china
#7
Jiang Xue, Shulin Chen, Hillary R Bogner, Wan Tang, Lydia Li, Yeates Conwell
OBJECTIVE: The comorbidity of depression and hypertension (HTN) is common and complicates the management of both conditions. This study investigated the prevalence of depressive symptoms among older patients with HTN in rural China and explored the relationship between the two conditions. METHODS: The baseline data of older patients diagnosed with HTN included in the depression/HTN in Chinese Older Adults-Collaborations for Health Study were used for the analysis...
November 28, 2016: International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27891652/a-closed-testing-procedure-to-select-an-appropriate-method-for-updating-prediction-models
#8
Yvonne Vergouwe, Daan Nieboer, Rianne Oostenbrink, Thomas P A Debray, Gordon D Murray, Michael W Kattan, Hendrik Koffijberg, Karel G M Moons, Ewout W Steyerberg
Prediction models fitted with logistic regression often show poor performance when applied in populations other than the development population. Model updating may improve predictions. Previously suggested methods vary in their extensiveness of updating the model. We aim to define a strategy in selecting an appropriate update method that considers the balance between the amount of evidence for updating in the new patient sample and the danger of overfitting. We consider recalibration in the large (re-estimation of model intercept); recalibration (re-estimation of intercept and slope) and model revision (re-estimation of all coefficients) as update methods...
November 28, 2016: Statistics in Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27856091/a-clinical-risk-prediction-tool-for-6-month-mortality-after-dialysis-initiation-among-older-adults
#9
James P Wick, Tanvir C Turin, Peter D Faris, Jennifer M MacRae, Robert G Weaver, Marcello Tonelli, Braden J Manns, Brenda R Hemmelgarn
BACKGROUND: Information on an individual's risk for death following dialysis therapy initiation may inform the decision to initiate maintenance dialysis for older adults. We derived and validated a clinical risk prediction tool for all-cause mortality among older adults during the first 6 months of maintenance dialysis treatment. STUDY DESIGN: Prediction model using retrospective administrative and clinical data. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: We linked administrative and clinical data to define a cohort of 2,199 older adults (age ≥ 65 years) in Alberta, Canada, who initiated maintenance dialysis therapy (excluding acute kidney injury) in May 2003 to March 2012...
November 14, 2016: American Journal of Kidney Diseases: the Official Journal of the National Kidney Foundation
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27855641/development-and-validation-of-the-fragire-tool-for-assessment-an-older-person-s-risk-for-frailty
#10
Dewi Vernerey, Amelie Anota, Pierre Vandel, Sophie Paget-Bailly, Michele Dion, Vanessa Bailly, Marie Bonin, Astrid Pozet, Audrey Foubert, Magdalena Benetkiewicz, Patrick Mankoundia, Franck Bonnetain
BACKGROUND: Frailty is highly prevalent in elderly people. While significant progress has been made to understand its pathogenesis process, few validated questionnaire exist to assess the multidimensional concept of frailty and to detect people frail or at risk to become frail. The objectives of this study were to construct and validate a new frailty-screening instrument named Frailty Groupe Iso-Ressource Evaluation (FRAGIRE) that accurately predicts the risk for frailty in older adults...
November 17, 2016: BMC Geriatrics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27852590/development-and-validation-of-a-risk-score-for-prediction-of-acute-kidney-injury-in-patients-with-acute-decompensated-heart-failure-a%C3%A2-prospective-cohort-study-in-china
#11
Li Zhi Zhou, Xiao Bing Yang, Ying Guan, Xing Xu, Ming T Tan, Fan Fan Hou, Ping Yan Chen
BACKGROUND: Although several risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) have been identified, early detection of AKI in acute decompensated heart failure patients remains a challenge. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk score for early prediction of AKI in acute decompensated heart failure patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 676 consecutive acute decompensated heart failure participants were prospectively enrolled from 6 regional central hospitals...
November 16, 2016: Journal of the American Heart Association
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27852049/a-nomogram-to-predict-the-probability-of-axillary-lymph-node-metastasis-in-female-patients-with-breast-cancer-in-china-a-nationwide-multicenter-10-year-epidemiological-study
#12
Jian Zhang, Xiao Li, Rong Huang, Wei-Liang Feng, Ya-Nan Kong, Feng Xu, Lin Zhao, Qing-Kun Song, Jing Li, Bao-Ning Zhang, Jin-Hu Fan, You-Lin Qiao, Xiao-Ming Xie, Shan Zheng, Jian-Jun He, Ke Wang
Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) or sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) alone may lead to postoperative complications. Among patients with positive ALN in the preoperative examination, approximately 40% patients do not have SLN metastasis. Herein, we aimed to develop a model to predict the probability of ALN metastasis as a preoperative tool to support clinical decision-making. We retrospectively analyzed the clinicopathological features of 4211 female patients with breast cancer who were diagnosed in seven breast cancer centers representing entire China, over 10 years (1999-2008)...
November 12, 2016: Oncotarget
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27851788/dietary-information-improves-model-performance-and-predictive-ability-of-a-noninvasive-type-2-diabetes-risk-model
#13
Tianshu Han, Shuang Tian, Li Wang, Xi Liang, Hongli Cui, Shanshan Du, Guanqiong Na, Lixin Na, Changhao Sun
There is no diabetes risk model that includes dietary predictors in Asia. We sought to develop a diet-containing noninvasive diabetes risk model in Northern China and to evaluate whether dietary predictors can improve model performance and predictive ability. Cross-sectional data for 9,734 adults aged 20-74 years old were used as the derivation data, and results obtained for a cohort of 4,515 adults with 4.2 years of follow-up were used as the validation data. We used a logistic regression model to develop a diet-containing noninvasive risk model...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27848202/prevalence-of-enamel-defects-and-association-with-dental-caries-in-preschool-children
#14
C Massignan, M Ximenes, C da Silva Pereira, L Dias, M Bolan, M Cardoso
AIM: This was to evaluate the prevalence of the developmental defects of enamel (DDE) in primary teeth and its association with dental caries. METHODS: A cross-sectional study with a randomised representative sample was carried out with 1101 children aged 2-5 years enrolled in public preschools (50% prevalence of DDE in primary teeth, a standard error of 3%, and a confidence level of 95%). Three calibrated dentists (K > 0.62) performed clinical examination...
November 15, 2016: European Archives of Paediatric Dentistry: Official Journal of the European Academy of Paediatric Dentistry
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27846895/development-and-validation-of-a-prehospital-prediction-model-for-acute-traumatic-coagulopathy
#15
Ithan D Peltan, Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, Lisa K Vande Vusse, Ellen Caldwell, Thomas D Rea, Ronald V Maier, Timothy R Watkins
BACKGROUND: Acute traumatic coagulopathy (ATC) is a syndrome of early, endogenous clotting dysfunction that afflicts up to 30% of severely injured patients, signaling an increased likelihood of all-cause and hemorrhage-associated mortality. To aid identification of patients within the likely therapeutic window for ATC and facilitate study of its mechanisms and targeted treatment, we developed and validated a prehospital ATC prediction model. METHODS: Construction of a parsimonious multivariable logistic regression model predicting ATC - defined as an admission international normalized ratio >1...
November 16, 2016: Critical Care: the Official Journal of the Critical Care Forum
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27835945/external-validation-of-multidimensional-prognostic-indices-ado-bodex-and-dose-in-a-primary-care-international-cohort-proepoc-copd-cohort
#16
Maite Espantoso-Romero, Miguel Román Rodríguez, Ana Duarte-Pérez, Jaime Gonzálvez-Rey, Pedro A Callejas-Cabanillas, Durdica Kasuba Lazic, Berta Anta-Agudo, Pere Torán Monserrat, Rosa Magallon-Botaya, Biljana Gerasimovska Kitanovska, Heidrun Lingner, Radost S Assenova, Claudia Iftode, Francisco Gude-Sampedro, Ana Clavería
BACKGROUND: Due to the heterogeneous and systemic nature of the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the new guidelines are oriented toward individualized attention. Multidimensional scales could facilitate its proper clinical and prognostic assessment, but not all of them were validated in an international primary care cohort, different from the original ones used for model development. Therefore, our main aim is to assess the prognostic capacity of the ADO, BODEx and DOSE indices in primary care for predicting mortality in COPD patients and to validate the models obtained in subgroups of patients, classified by revised Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (2011) and updated Spanish Guideline (2014)...
November 11, 2016: BMC Pulmonary Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27827273/calibration-power-of-the-braden-scale-in-predicting-pressure-ulcer-development
#17
Hong-Lin Chen, Ying-Juan Cao, Jing Wang, Bao-Sha Huai
OBJECTIVE: Calibration is the degree of correspondence between the estimated probability produced by a model and the actual observed probability. The aim of this study was to investigate the calibration power of the Braden scale in predicting pressure ulcer development (PU). METHOD: A retrospective analysis was performed among consecutive patients in 2013. The patients were separated into training a group and a validation group. The predicted incidence was calculated using a logistic regression model in the training group and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used for assessing the goodness of fit...
November 2, 2016: Journal of Wound Care
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27822904/a-new-prognostic-strategy-for-adult-patients-with-acute-pulmonary-embolism-eligible-for-outpatient-therapy
#18
Federico Angriman, Fernando J Vazquez, Pierre Marie Roy, Gregoire Le Gal, Marc Carrier, Esteban Gandara
We sought to derive a parsimonious predictive model to identify a subgroup of patients that will experience a low number of adverse events within 14 days of the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism. Retrospective cohort study of adult patients with acute pulmonary embolism at the Ottawa Hospital between 2007 and 2012. Primary outcome was defined as the composite of all-cause mortality, recurrent venous thromboembolism and major bleeding within 14 days. Multivariate logistic regression models were fit to model the occurrence of the primary outcome so as to guide either outpatient therapy or early discharge after initial admission...
November 7, 2016: Journal of Thrombosis and Thrombolysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27812624/prevalence-severity-and-risk-indicators-of-gingival-inflammation-in-a-multi-center-study-on-south-american-adults-a-cross-sectional-study
#19
Paola Carvajal, Mariel Gómez, Sabrina Gomes, Ricardo Costa, Andres Toledo, Fernando Solanes, Hugo Romanelli, Rui Oppermann, Cassiano Rösing, Jorge Gamonal
Objectives: The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence and severity of gingival inflammation and associated risk indicators in South American adults. Material and Methods: Multi-stage samples totaling 1,650 adults from Porto Alegre (Brazil), Tucumán (Argentina), and Santiago (Chile) were assessed. The sampling procedure consisted of a 4-stage process. Examinations were performed in mobile dental units by calibrated examiners. A multivariable logistic regression model was utilized for associating variables as indicators of gingival inflammation (GI) (Gingival Index ≥0...
September 2016: Journal of Applied Oral Science: Revista FOB
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27807808/predictive-factors-of-pathologic-complete-response-of-her2-positive-breast-cancer-after-preoperative-chemotherapy-with-trastuzumab-development-of-a-specific-predictor-and-study-of-its-utilities-using-decision-curve-analysis
#20
Clémentine Jankowski, S Guiu, M Cortet, C Charon-Barra, I Desmoulins, V Lorgis, L Arnould, P Fumoleau, B Coudert, R Rouzier, C Coutant, F Reyal
PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to assess the Institut Gustave Roussy/M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (IGR/MDACC) nomogram in predicting pathologic complete response (pCR) to preoperative chemotherapy in a cohort of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive tumors treated with preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab. We then combine clinical and pathological variables associated with pCR into a new nomogram specific to HER2-positive tumors treated by preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab...
November 2, 2016: Breast Cancer Research and Treatment
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