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Calibration logistic regression

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28324889/evaluation-of-clinicopathological-factors-in-pd-1-response-derivation-and-validation-of-a-prediction-scale-for-response-to-pd-1-monotherapy
#1
Adi Nosrati, Katy K Tsai, Simone M Goldinger, Paul Tumeh, Barbara Grimes, Kimberly Loo, Alain P Algazi, Thi Dan Linh Nguyen-Kim, Mitchell Levesque, Reinhard Dummer, Omid Hamid, Adil Daud
BACKGROUND: Anti-PD-1 therapy has shown significant clinical activity in advanced melanoma. We developed and validated a clinical prediction scale for response to anti- PD-1 monotherapy. METHODS: A total of 315 patients with advanced melanoma treated with pembrolizumab (2 or 10 mg kg(-1) Q2W or Q3W) or nivolumab (3 mg kg(-1) Q2W) at four cancer centres between 2011 to 2013 served as the setting for the present cohort study. Variables with significant association to response on a univariate analysis were entered into a forward stepwise logistic regression model and were given a score based on ORs to calculate a clinical prediction scale...
March 21, 2017: British Journal of Cancer
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28318513/improving-risk-adjustment-for-mortality-after-pediatric-cardiac-surgery-the-uk-prais2-model
#2
Libby Rogers, Katherine L Brown, Rodney C Franklin, Gareth Ambler, David Anderson, David J Barron, Sonya Crowe, Kate English, John Stickley, Shane Tibby, Victor Tsang, Martin Utley, Thomas Witter, Christina Pagel
BACKGROUND: Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. METHODS: The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers...
March 15, 2017: Annals of Thoracic Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28314756/predicting-occupational-asthma-and-rhinitis-in-bakery-workers-referred-for-clinical-evaluation
#3
Badri Sadat Jonaid, Jos Rooyackers, Erik Stigter, Lützen Portengen, Esmeralda Krop, Dick Heederik
BACKGROUND: Occupational allergic diseases are a major problem in some workplaces like in the baking industry. Diagnostic rules have been used in surveillance but not yet in the occupational respiratory clinic. OBJECTIVE: To develop diagnostic models predicting baker's asthma and rhinitis among bakery workers at high risk of sensitisation to bakery allergens referred to a specialised clinic. METHODS: As part of a medical surveillance programme, clinical evaluation was performed on 436 referred Dutch bakery workers at high risk for sensitisation to bakery allergens...
March 17, 2017: Occupational and Environmental Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28298047/development-of-a-prediction-rule-for-diagnosing-postoperative-meningitis-a-cross-sectional-study
#4
Olga Helena Hernández Ortiz, Héctor Iván García García, Fabián Muñoz Ramírez, Juan Sebastián Cardona Flórez, Bladimir Alejandro Gil Valencia, Salvador Ernesto Medina Mantilla, María Juliana Moreno Ochoa, Jorge Eliécer Sará Ochoa, Fabián Jaimes
OBJECTIVE Diagnosing nosocomial meningitis (NM) in neurosurgical patients is difficult. The standard CSF test is not optimal and when it is obtained, CSF cultures are negative in as many as 70% of cases. The goal of this study was to develop a diagnostic prediction rule for postoperative meningitis using a combination of clinical, laboratory, and CSF variables, as well as risk factors (RFs) for CNS infection. METHODS A cross-sectional study was performed in 4 intensive care units in Medellín, Colombia. Patients with a history of neurosurgical procedures were selected at the onset of febrile symptoms and/or after an increase in acute-phase reactants...
March 10, 2017: Journal of Neurosurgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28294515/clinical-risk-scoring-for-predicting-non-alcoholic-fatty-liver-disease-in-metabolic-syndrome-patients-nafld-ms-score
#5
Surasak Saokaew, Shada Kanchanasuwan, Piyaporn Apisarnthanarak, Aphinya Charoensak, Phunchai Charatcharoenwitthaya, Pochamana Phisalprapa, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can progress from simple steatosis to hepatocellular carcinoma. None of tools has been developed specifically for high-risk patients. This study aimed to develop a simple risk scoring to predict NAFLD in patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS). METHODS: A total of 509 patients with MetS were recruited. All were diagnosed by clinicians with ultrasonography-confirmed whether they were patients with NAFLD...
March 12, 2017: Liver International: Official Journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28285428/a-novel-model-for-predicting-incident-moderate-to-severe-anemia-and-iron-deficiency-in-patients-with-newly-diagnosed-ulcerative-colitis
#6
Nabeel Khan, Dhruvan Patel, Yash Shah, Yu-Xiao Yang
BACKGROUND: Anemia and iron deficiency are common complications of ulcerative colitis (UC). We aimed to develop and internally validate a prediction model for the incidence of moderate to severe anemia and iron deficiency anemia (IDA) in newly diagnosed patients with UC. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression was performed among a nationwide cohort of patients who were newly diagnosed with UC in the VA health-care system. Model development was performed in a random two-third of the total cohort and then validated in the remaining one-third of the cohort...
March 11, 2017: Digestive Diseases and Sciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28279999/simplified-mortality-score-for-the-intensive-care-unit-sms-icu-protocol-for-the-development-and-validation-of-a-bedside-clinical-prediction-rule
#7
Anders Granholm, Anders Perner, Mette Krag, Peter Buhl Hjortrup, Nicolai Haase, Lars Broksø Holst, Søren Marker, Marie Oxenbøll Collet, Aksel Karl Georg Jensen, Morten Hylander Møller
INTRODUCTION: Mortality prediction scores are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) and in research, but their predictive value deteriorates as scores age. Existing mortality prediction scores are imprecise and complex, which increases the risk of missing data and decreases the applicability bedside in daily clinical practice. We propose the development and validation of a new, simple and updated clinical prediction rule: the Simplified Mortality Score for use in the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU)...
March 9, 2017: BMJ Open
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28275223/evaluation-of-eight-biomarkers-to-predict-short-term-mortality-in-patients-with-acute-severe-dyspnea
#8
Claire Ara-Somohano, Agnès Bonadona, Francoise Carpentier, Patricia Pavese, Aurélien Vesin, Rebecca Hamidfar-Roy, Clémence Minet, Gerald Vanzetto, Carole Schwebel, Jean F Timsit
BACKGROUND: Being able to better predict risk and optimal care for patients presenting with acute dyspnea is critical. Prognostic biomarkers are well known: amino-terminal pro-Btype Natriuretic Peptide, troponin, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin. Some were more recently developed: mid-regional pro-A-type natriuretic peptide (Mid Pro-ANP), mid-regional-proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM), pro-endothelin, copeptin. The aim of the paper was to evaluate prognostic value of clinical findings and 8 biomarkers in patients with severe acute dyspnea...
March 8, 2017: Minerva Anestesiologica
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28273175/development-of-a-new-risk-model-for-predicting-cardiovascular-events-among-hemodialysis-patients-population-based-hemodialysis-patients-from-the-japan-dialysis-outcome-and-practice-patterns-study-j-dopps
#9
Yukiko Matsubara, Miho Kimachi, Shingo Fukuma, Yoshihiro Onishi, Shunichi Fukuhara
BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular (CV) events are the primary cause of death and becoming bedridden among hemodialysis (HD) patients. The Framingham risk score (FRS) is useful for predicting incidence of CV events in the general population, but is considerd to be unsuitable for the prediction of the incidence of CV events in HD patients, given their characteristics due to atypical relationships between conventional risk factors and outcomes. We therefore aimed to develop a new prognostic prediction model for prevention and early detection of CV events among hemodialysis patients...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28267756/a-stillbirth-calculator-development-and-internal-validation-of-a-clinical-prediction-model-to-quantify-stillbirth-risk
#10
Amanda S Trudell, Methodius G Tuuli, Graham A Colditz, George A Macones, Anthony O Odibo
OBJECTIVE: To generate a clinical prediction tool for stillbirth that combines maternal risk factors to provide an evidence based approach for the identification of women who will benefit most from antenatal testing for stillbirth prevention. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Midwestern United States quaternary referral center. POPULATION: Singleton pregnancies undergoing second trimester anatomic survey from 1999-2009...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28256741/osteoporosis-is-the-most-important-risk-factor-for-odontoid-fractures-in-the-elderly
#11
Johannes Kaesmacher, Claudia Schweizer, Alexander Valentinitsch, Thomas Baum, Anna Rienmüller, Bernhard Meyer, Jan S Kirschke, Yu-Mi Ryang
BACKGROUND: Traumatic odontoid fractures (TOFs) have been described as the most common injury affecting the C-spine in the elderly. Previous studies have identified degenerative changes and bone loss as important predisposing factors. However, their interaction and respective age-adjusted impact needs further clarification. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 5303 patients (≥60 years) admitted to a level-I trauma center between 01/2008-01/2016 who underwent CT imaging of the C-spine...
March 3, 2017: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research: the Official Journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28254762/risk-stratification-of-survival-in-injured-patients-with-cardiopulmonary-resuscitation-within-the-first-hour-of-arrival-to-trauma-centre-retrospective-analysis-from-the-national-trauma-data-bank
#12
Nasim Ahmed, Patricia Greenberg, Victor M Johnson, John Mihran Davis
BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to evaluate overall survival and associated survival factors for patients with trauma who had cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) within 1 hour after arrival to a hospital. METHODS: Retrospective patient data was retrieved from the 2007-2010 edition of the US National Trauma Data Bank. Inhospital survival was the primary outcome; only patients with a known outcome were included in the analysis. Summary statistics and univariate analyses were first reported...
March 2, 2017: Emergency Medicine Journal: EMJ
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28249359/identifying-high-risk-individuals-for-targeted-lung-cancer-screening-independent-validation-of-the-plcom2012-risk-prediction-tool
#13
Marianne Weber, Sarsha Yap, David Goldsbury, David Manners, Martin Tammemagi, Henry Marshall, Fraser Brims, Annette McWIlliams, Kwun Fong, Yoon Jung Kang, Michael Caruana, Emily Banks, Karen Canfell
Lung cancer screening with computerised tomography holds promise, but optimising the balance of benefits and harms via selection of a high risk population is critical. PLCOm2012 is a logistic regression model based on U.S. data, incorporating sociodemographic and health factors, which predicts 6-year lung cancer risk among ever-smokers, and thus may better predict those who might benefit from screening than criteria based solely on age and smoking history. We aimed to validate the performance of PLCOm2012 in predicting lung cancer outcomes in a cohort of Australian smokers...
March 1, 2017: International Journal of Cancer. Journal International du Cancer
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28237530/evaluation-of-prostate-cancer-risk-calculators-for-shared-decision-making-across-diverse-urology-practices-in-michigan
#14
Gregory B Auffenberg, Selin Merdan, David C Miller, Karandeep Singh, Benjamin R Stockton, Khurshid R Ghani, Brian T Denton
OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive performance of a logistic regression model developed with contemporary data from a diverse group of urology practices to that of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator version 2.0. METHODS: With data from all first-time prostate biopsies performed between January 2012 and March 2015 across the Michigan Urological Surgery Improvement Collaborative (MUSIC), we developed a multinomial logistic regression model to predict the likelihood of finding high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7), low-grade (Gleason Score ≤6), or no cancer on prostate biopsy...
February 22, 2017: Urology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28218211/a-model-predicting-lymph-node-status-for-patients-with-clinical-stage-t1an0-2m0-nonsmall-cell-lung-cancer
#15
Ruo-Chuan Zang, Bin Qiu, Shu-Geng Gao, Jie He
BACKGROUND: Lymph node status of patients with early-stage nonsmall cell lung cancer has an influence on the choice of surgery. To assess the lymph node status more correspondingly and accurately, we evaluated the relationship between the preoperative clinical variables and lymph node status and developed one model for predicting lymph node involvement. METHODS: We collected clinical and dissected lymph node information of 474 patients with clinical stage T1aN0-2M0 nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC)...
2017: Chinese Medical Journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28213060/prediction-of-cesarean-delivery-in-the-term-nulliparous-woman-results-from-the-prospective-multicenter-genesis%C3%A2-study
#16
Naomi Burke, Gerard Burke, Fionnuala Breathnach, Fionnuala McAuliffe, John J Morrison, Michael Turner, Samina Dornan, John R Higgins, Amanda Cotter, Michael Geary, Peter McParland, Sean Daly, Fiona Cody, Pat Dicker, Elizabeth Tully, Fergal D Malone
BACKGROUND: In contemporary practice many nulliparous women require intervention during childbirth such as operative vaginal delivery or cesarean delivery (CD). Despite the knowledge that the increasing rate of CD is associated with increasing maternal age, obesity and larger infant birthweight, we lack a reliable method to predict the requirement for such potentially hazardous obstetric procedures during labor and delivery. This issue is important, as there are greater rates of morbidity and mortality associated with unplanned CD performed in labor compared with scheduled CDs...
February 16, 2017: American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28207981/a-multiparametric-magnetic-resonance-imaging-based-risk-model-to-determine-the-risk-of-significant-prostate-cancer-prior-to-biopsy
#17
Pim J van Leeuwen, Andrew Hayen, James E Thompson, Daniel Moses, Ron Shnier, Maret Böhm, Magdaline Abuodha, Anne-Maree Haynes, Francis Ting, Jelle Barentsz, Monique Roobol, Justin Vass, Krishan Rasiah, Warick Delprado, Phillip D Stricker
OBJECTIVES: To develop and externally validate a predictive model for detection of significant prostate cancer (PC). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Development of the model was based on prospective cohort including 393 men who underwent mpMRI prior to biopsy. External validity of the model was then examined retrospectively in 198 men from a separate institution whom underwent a mpMRI followed by biopsy for abnormal PSA/DRE. A model was developed with age, PSA, DRE, prostate volume, previous biopsy and PIRADS score as predictors for significant PC (Gleason 7 with >5% grade 4, ≥ 20% cores positive or ≥ 7mm of PC in any core)...
February 16, 2017: BJU International
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28203412/predictive-models-of-malignant-transudative-pleural-effusions
#18
Lucía Ferreiro, Francisco Gude, María E Toubes, Adriana Lama, Juan Suárez-Antelo, Esther San-José, Francisco Javier González-Barcala, Antonio Golpe, José M Álvarez-Dobaño, Carlos Rábade, Nuria Rodríguez-Núñez, Carla Díaz-Louzao, Luis Valdés
BACKGROUND: There are no firm recommendations when cytology should be performed in pleural transudates, since some malignant pleural effusions (MPEs) behave biochemically as transudates. The objective was to assess when would be justified to perform cytology on pleural transudates. METHODS: Consecutive patients with transudative pleural effusion (PE) were enrolled and divided in two groups: malignant and non-MPE. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the probability of malignancy...
January 2017: Journal of Thoracic Disease
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28197643/machine-learning-principles-can-improve-hip-fracture-prediction
#19
Christian Kruse, Pia Eiken, Peter Vestergaard
Apply machine learning principles to predict hip fractures and estimate predictor importance in Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-scanned men and women. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry data from two Danish regions between 1996 and 2006 were combined with national Danish patient data to comprise 4722 women and 717 men with 5 years of follow-up time (original cohort n = 6606 men and women). Twenty-four statistical models were built on 75% of data points through k-5, 5-repeat cross-validation, and then validated on the remaining 25% of data points to calculate area under the curve (AUC) and calibrate probability estimates...
February 14, 2017: Calcified Tissue International
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28159307/groundwater-arsenic-contamination-in-burkina-faso-west-africa-predicting-and-verifying-regions-at-risk
#20
Anja Bretzler, Franck Lalanne, Julien Nikiema, Joel Podgorski, Numa Pfenninger, Michael Berg, Mario Schirmer
Arsenic contamination in groundwater from crystalline basement rocks in West Africa has only been documented in isolated areas and presents a serious health threat in a region already facing multiple challenges related to water quality and scarcity. We present a comprehensive dataset of arsenic concentrations from drinking water wells in rural Burkina Faso (n=1498), of which 14.6% are above 10μg/L. Included in this dataset are 269 new samples from regions where no published water quality data existed. We used multivariate logistic regression with arsenic measurements as calibration data and maps of geology and mineral deposits as independent predictor variables to create arsenic prediction models at concentration thresholds of 5, 10 and 50μg/L...
April 15, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
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