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Calibration logistic regression

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28213060/prediction-of-cesarean-delivery-in-the-term-nulliparous-woman-results-from-the-prospective-multi-center-genesis-study
#1
Naomi Burke, Gerard Burke, Fionnuala Breathnach, Fionnuala Mcauliffe, John J Morrison, Michael Turner, Samina Dornan, John R Higgins, Amanda Cotter, Michael Geary, Peter Mcparland, Sean Daly, Fiona Cody, Pat Dicker, Elizabeth Tully, Fergal D Malone
BACKGROUND: In contemporary practice many nulliparous women require intervention during childbirth such as operative vaginal delivery or Cesarean delivery (CD). Despite the knowledge that the rising CD rate is associated with increasing maternal age, obesity and larger infant birthweight, we lack a reliable method to predict the requirement for such potentially hazardous obstetric procedures during labor and delivery. This issue is important as there are higher rates of morbidity and mortality associated with unplanned CD performed in labor compared to scheduled Cesarean deliveries...
February 14, 2017: American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28207981/a-multiparametric-magnetic-resonance-imaging-based-risk-model-to-determine-the-risk-of-significant-prostate-cancer-prior-to-biopsy
#2
Pim J van Leeuwen, Andrew Hayen, James E Thompson, Daniel Moses, Ron Shnier, Maret Böhm, Magdaline Abuodha, Anne-Maree Haynes, Francis Ting, Jelle Barentsz, Monique Roobol, Justin Vass, Krishan Rasiah, Warick Delprado, Phillip D Stricker
OBJECTIVES: To develop and externally validate a predictive model for detection of significant prostate cancer (PC). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Development of the model was based on prospective cohort including 393 men who underwent mpMRI prior to biopsy. External validity of the model was then examined retrospectively in 198 men from a separate institution whom underwent a mpMRI followed by biopsy for abnormal PSA/DRE. A model was developed with age, PSA, DRE, prostate volume, previous biopsy and PIRADS score as predictors for significant PC (Gleason 7 with >5% grade 4, ≥ 20% cores positive or ≥ 7mm of PC in any core)...
February 16, 2017: BJU International
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28203412/predictive-models-of-malignant-transudative-pleural-effusions
#3
Lucía Ferreiro, Francisco Gude, María E Toubes, Adriana Lama, Juan Suárez-Antelo, Esther San-José, Francisco Javier González-Barcala, Antonio Golpe, José M Álvarez-Dobaño, Carlos Rábade, Nuria Rodríguez-Núñez, Carla Díaz-Louzao, Luis Valdés
BACKGROUND: There are no firm recommendations when cytology should be performed in pleural transudates, since some malignant pleural effusions (MPEs) behave biochemically as transudates. The objective was to assess when would be justified to perform cytology on pleural transudates. METHODS: Consecutive patients with transudative pleural effusion (PE) were enrolled and divided in two groups: malignant and non-MPE. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the probability of malignancy...
January 2017: Journal of Thoracic Disease
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28197643/machine-learning-principles-can-improve-hip-fracture-prediction
#4
Christian Kruse, Pia Eiken, Peter Vestergaard
Apply machine learning principles to predict hip fractures and estimate predictor importance in Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-scanned men and women. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry data from two Danish regions between 1996 and 2006 were combined with national Danish patient data to comprise 4722 women and 717 men with 5 years of follow-up time (original cohort n = 6606 men and women). Twenty-four statistical models were built on 75% of data points through k-5, 5-repeat cross-validation, and then validated on the remaining 25% of data points to calculate area under the curve (AUC) and calibrate probability estimates...
February 14, 2017: Calcified Tissue International
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28159307/groundwater-arsenic-contamination-in-burkina-faso-west-africa-predicting-and-verifying-regions-at-risk
#5
Anja Bretzler, Franck Lalanne, Julien Nikiema, Joel Podgorski, Numa Pfenninger, Michael Berg, Mario Schirmer
Arsenic contamination in groundwater from crystalline basement rocks in West Africa has only been documented in isolated areas and presents a serious health threat in a region already facing multiple challenges related to water quality and scarcity. We present a comprehensive dataset of arsenic concentrations from drinking water wells in rural Burkina Faso (n=1498), of which 14.6% are above 10μg/L. Included in this dataset are 269 new samples from regions where no published water quality data existed. We used multivariate logistic regression with arsenic measurements as calibration data and maps of geology and mineral deposits as independent predictor variables to create arsenic prediction models at concentration thresholds of 5, 10 and 50μg/L...
February 1, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28153618/development-and-validation-of-the-procedure-related-neurological-complications-risk-score-for-elderly-patients-with-ruptured-intracranial-aneurysm-undergoing-endovascular-treatment
#6
Guoli Duan, Wanling Wen, Qiao Zuo, Pengfei Yang, Lei Zhang, Bo Hong, Yi Xu, Jianmin Liu, Qinghai Huang
OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to develop and validate a procedure-related neurological complications (PNC) risk score for individual elderly patients with rupture intracranial aneurysms (RIAs) undergoing endovascular treatment (EVT). METHODS: Preoperatively collected data, including clinical, lesion, and procedure characteristics of consecutive elderly patients (≥ 60 years), were used to develop a PNC risk predictive score based on the coefficients (β) of a multivariable logistic regression analysis...
January 30, 2017: World Neurosurgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28151752/influences-on-emergency-department-length-of-stay-for-older-people
#7
Maryann Street, Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Debra Berry, Anthony Cross, Julie Considine
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the influences on emergency department (ED) length of stay (LOS) for older people and develop a predictive model for an ED LOS more than 4 h. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used organizational data linkage at the patient level from a major Australian health service. The study population was aged 65 years or older, attending an ED during the 2013/2014 financial year. We developed and internally validated a clinical prediction rule...
February 1, 2017: European Journal of Emergency Medicine: Official Journal of the European Society for Emergency Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28148264/what-limits-the-utilization-of-health-services-among-china-labor-force-analysis-of-inequalities-in-demographic-socio-economic-and-health-status
#8
Liming Lu, Jingchun Zeng, Zhi Zeng
BACKGROUND: Inequalities in demographic, socio-economic and health status for China labor force place them at greater health risks, and marginalized them in the utilization of healthcare services. This paper identifies the inequalities which limit the utilization of health services among China labor force, and provides a reference point for health policy. METHODS: Data were collected from 23,505 participants aged 15 to 65, from the 2014 China Labor Force Dynamic Survey (a nationwide cross-sectional survey covering 29 provinces with a multi-stage cluster, and stratified, probability sampling strategy) conducted by Sun Yat-sen University...
February 2, 2017: International Journal for Equity in Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28148246/development-of-a-respiratory-severity-score-for-hospitalized-adults-in-a-high-hiv-prevalence-setting-south-africa-2010-2011
#9
Alexander J Millman, Adena Greenbaum, Sibongile Walaza, Adam L Cohen, Michelle J Groome, Carrie Reed, Meredith McMorrow, Stefano Tempia, Marietjie Venter, Florette K Treurnicht, Shabir A Madhi, Cheryl Cohen, Ebrahim Variava
BACKGROUND: Acute lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) are a frequent cause of hospitalization and mortality in South Africa; however, existing respiratory severity scores may underestimate mortality risk in HIV-infected adults in resource limited settings. A simple predictive clinical score for low-resource settings could aid healthcare providers in the management of patients hospitalized with LRTI. METHODS: We analyzed 1,356 LRTI hospitalizations in adults aged ≥18 years enrolled in Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) surveillance in three South African hospitals from January 2010 to December 2011...
February 2, 2017: BMC Pulmonary Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28145952/patient-and-radiographic-factors-help-to-predict-metal-on-metal-hip-resurfacings-with-evidence-of-a-pseudotumor
#10
Gulraj S Matharu, Oliver Blanshard, Kawaljit Dhaliwal, Andrew Judge, David W Murray, Hemant G Pandit
BACKGROUND: The role of radiographs in the follow-up of patients with metal-on-metal hip resurfacing (MoMHR) implants is unclear. We investigated whether a combination of patient and radiographic factors predicted MoMHRs with evidence of a pseudotumor. METHODS: We performed a retrospective single-center case-control study of 384 MoMHRs. The pseudotumor group of 130 hips all had evidence of a symptomatic pseudotumor on cross-sectional imaging, with the diagnosis confirmed at revision...
February 1, 2017: Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery. American Volume
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28130474/design-and-validation-of-the-gi-nec-score-to-prognosticate-overall-survival-in-patients-with-high-grade-gastrointestinal-neuroendocrine-carcinomas
#11
Angela Lamarca, Thomas Walter, Marianne Pavel, Ivan Borbath, Patricia Freis, Barbara Nuñez, Alexa Childs, Mairéad G McNamara, Richard A Hubner, Rocio Garcia-Carbonero, Tim Meyer, Juan W Valle, Jorge Barriuso
BACKGROUND: Prognostic markers for risk stratification of patients with gastrointestinal high-grade neuroendocrine carcinomas (GI-NECs) are lacking; we designed and validated a prognostic score for overall survival (OS). METHODS: Consecutive patients diagnosed in five neuroendocrine specialist European centers were included. Patients were divided into three cohorts: a training cohort (TC), an external validation cohort (EVC), and a prospective validation cohort (PVC)...
January 2017: Journal of the National Cancer Institute
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28093430/development-and-validation-of-a-prediction-model-for-gestational-hypertension-in-a-ghanaian-cohort
#12
Edward Antwi, Rolf H H Groenwold, Joyce L Browne, Arie Franx, Irene A Agyepong, Kwadwo A Koram, Kerstin Klipstein-Grobusch, Diederick E Grobbee
OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a prediction model for identifying women at increased risk of developing gestational hypertension (GH) in Ghana. DESIGN: A prospective study. We used frequencies for descriptive analysis, χ(2) test for associations and logistic regression to derive the prediction model. Discrimination was estimated by the c-statistic. Calibration was assessed by calibration plot of actual versus predicted probability. SETTING: Primary care antenatal clinics in Ghana...
16, 2017: BMJ Open
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28081544/nomogram-to-predict-pathologic-complete-response-in-her2-positive-breast-cancer-treated-with-neoadjuvant-systemic-therapy
#13
Takeo Fujii, Takahiro Kogawa, Jimin Wu, Aysegul A Sahin, Dian D Liu, Mariana Chavez-MacGregor, Sharon H Giordano, Akshara Raghavendra, Rushmy K Murthy, Debu Tripathy, Yu Shen, Jose-Miguel Yamal, Naoto T Ueno
BACKGROUND: Pathologic complete response (pCR) is associated with improved survival outcomes in patients with HER2-positive primary breast cancer. We developed a nomogram to predict the probability of pCR rates by using oestrogen receptor (ER) expression, progesterone receptor (PR) expression and HER2/CEP17 ratio as continuous variables. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed patients with stages I-III HER2-positive invasive breast cancer who had definitive surgery in 1999-2015 and received neoadjuvant systemic therapy (NST)...
February 14, 2017: British Journal of Cancer
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28081211/development-and-validation-of-a-clinical-prediction-rule-for-bacteremia-among-maintenance-hemodialysis-patients-in-outpatient-settings
#14
Sho Sasaki, Takeshi Hasegawa, Hiroo Kawarazaki, Atsushi Nomura, Daisuke Uchida, Takahiro Imaizumi, Masahide Furusho, Hiroki Nishiwaki, Shingo Fukuma, Yugo Shibagaki, Shunichi Fukuhara
BACKGROUND: To our knowledge, no reliable clinical prediction rule (CPR) for identifying bacteremia in hemodialysis (HD) patients has been established. The aim of this study was to develop a CPR for bacteremia in maintenance HD patients visiting the outpatient department. METHODS: This multicenter cohort study involved consecutive maintenance HD patients who visited the outpatient clinic or emergency room of seven Japanese institutions between August 2011 and July 2013...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28079580/a-predictive-model-for-extended-postanesthesia-care-unit-length-of-stay-in-outpatient-surgeries
#15
Rodney A Gabriel, Ruth S Waterman, Jihoon Kim, Lucila Ohno-Machado
BACKGROUND: A predictive model that can identify patients who are at an increased risk for prolonged postanesthesia care unit (PACU) stay could help optimize resource utilization and case sequencing. Although previous studies identified some predictors, there is not a model that only utilizes various patients demographic and comorbidities, that are already known preoperatively, and that may affect PACU length of stay for outpatient procedures requiring the care of an anesthesiologist...
January 11, 2017: Anesthesia and Analgesia
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28073820/predicting-6-month-mortality-risk-of-patients-commencing-dialysis-treatment-for-end-stage-kidney-disease
#16
Sara E Ivory, Kevan R Polkinghorne, Yeasmin Khandakar, Jessica Kasza, Sophia Zoungas, Retha Steenkamp, Paul Roderick, Rory Wolfe
BACKGROUND: There is evidence that end-stage kidney disease patients who are older or with more comorbidity may have a poor trade-off between benefits of dialysis and potential harms. We aimed to develop a tool for predicting patient mortality in the early stages of receiving dialysis. METHODS: In 23 658 patients aged 15+ years commencing dialysis between 2000 and 2009 in Australia and New Zealand a point score tool was developed to predict 6-month mortality based on a logistic regression analysis of factors available at dialysis initiation...
January 10, 2017: Nephrology, Dialysis, Transplantation
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28052940/endometrial-cancer-risk-factors-hormone-receptors-and-mortality-prediction
#17
Evan L Busch, Marta Crous-Bou, Jennifer Prescott, Maxine M Chen, Michael J Downing, Bernard Rosner, George L Mutter, Immaculata De Vivo
BACKGROUND: Endometrial tumors arise from a hormonally-responsive tissue. Defining subtypes by hormone receptors might better inform etiology and prediction of patient outcomes. We evaluated the potential role of tumor estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) expression to define endometrial cancer subtypes. METHODS: We measured semi-continuous ER and PR protein expression in tissue specimens from 360 endometrial primary tumors from the Nurses' Health Study...
January 4, 2017: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28052412/identifying-potentially-avoidable-readmissions-a-medication-based-15-day-readmission-risk-stratification-algorithm
#18
Sreemanee Raaj Dorajoo, Vincent See, Chen Teng Chan, Joyce Zhenyin Tan, Doreen Su Yin Tan, Siti Maryam Binte Abdul Razak, Ting Ting Ong, Narendran Koomanan, Chun Wei Yap, Alexandre Chan
BACKGROUND: Stratifying patients according to 15-day readmission risk would be useful in identifying those who may benefit from targeted interventions during and/or following hospital discharge that are designed to reduce the likelihood of readmission. METHODS: A prediction model was derived via a case-control analysis of patients discharged from a tertiary hospital in Singapore using multivariate logistic regression. The model was validated in two independent external cohorts separated temporally and geographically...
January 4, 2017: Pharmacotherapy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28046017/development-and-external-validation-of-the-korean-prostate-cancer-risk-calculator-for-high-grade-prostate-cancer-comparison-with-two-western-risk-calculators-in-an-asian-cohort
#19
Jae Young Park, Sungroh Yoon, Man Sik Park, Hoon Choi, Jae Hyun Bae, Du Geon Moon, Sung Kyu Hong, Sang Eun Lee, Chanwang Park, Seok-Soo Byun
PURPOSE: We developed the Korean Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator for High-Grade Prostate Cancer (KPCRC-HG) that predicts the probability of prostate cancer (PC) of Gleason score 7 or higher at the initial prostate biopsy in a Korean cohort (http://acl.snu.ac.kr/PCRC/RISC/). In addition, KPCRC-HG was validated and compared with internet-based Western risk calculators in a validation cohort. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a logistic regression model, KPCRC-HG was developed based on the data from 602 previously unscreened Korean men who underwent initial prostate biopsies...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28043766/re-operative-urethroplasty-after-failed-hypospadias-repair-how-prior-surgery-impacts-risk-for-additional-complications
#20
W Snodgrass, N C Bush
PURPOSE: The primary aim of this report was to compare urethroplasty complications for primary distal and proximal repairs with those after 1, 2, 3, and 4 or more re-operations. METHODS: Prospectively collected data on consecutive hypospadias repairs (tubularized incised plate (TIP), inlay, two-stage graft) from 2000 to 2015 were reviewed. Isolated fistula closures were excluded. Extracted information included patient age, meatal location, repair type, primary vs...
December 7, 2016: Journal of Pediatric Urology
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