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Calibration logistic regression

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28441848/-short-term-clinical-outcomes-and-risk-factors-associated-with-in-hospital-mortality-in-patients-undergoing-off-pump-coronary-artery-bypass-grafting
#1
K Hua, J J Sheng, R Dong
Objective: To explore short-term clinical outcomes and risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCABG) and establish a prediction model for in-hospital mortality. Methods: The clinical data of patients undergoing OPCABG in Beijing Anzhen Hospital between January 2014 and January 2016 was retrospectively studied. Univariate analysis and logistic regression were applied to determine the potential risk factors, and then a prediction model for mortality was confirmed...
April 25, 2017: Zhonghua Yi Xue za Zhi [Chinese medical journal]
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28429830/establishment-and-evaluation-of-a-novel-biomarker-based-nomogram-for-malignant-phaeochromocytomas-and-paragangliomas
#2
Xu Zhong, Lei Ye, TingWei Su, Jing Xie, Weiwei Zhou, Yiran Jiang, Lei Jiang, Guang Ning, Weiqing Wang
OBJECTIVE: No single histological or molecular marker is diagnostic for malignant phaeochromocytomas and paragangliomas (PPGLs). This study aimed to establish and evaluate a prognostic nomogram to improve the prediction of metastatic probability in individual PPGL patients. METHODS: Three hundred and forty-seven consecutive PPGL patients from January 2002 through December 2014 were randomly divided into a training set (n=208) and a validation set (n=139). A multivariate logistic regression analysis of selected prognostic features was performed, and a nomogram to predict metastasis was constructed...
April 21, 2017: Clinical Endocrinology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28423122/development-and-validation-of-a-stratification-tool-for-predicting-risk-of-deep-sternal-wound-infection-after-coronary-artery-bypass-grafting-at-a-brazilian-hospital
#3
Michel Pompeu Barros Oliveira Sá, Paulo Ernando Ferraz, Artur Freire Soares, Rodrigo Gusmão Albuquerque Miranda, Mayara Lopes Araújo, Frederico Vasconcelos Silva, Ricardo de Carvalho Lima
Objective: Deep sternal wound infection following coronary artery bypass grafting is a serious complication associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite the substantial impact of deep sternal wound infection, there is a lack of specific risk stratification tools to predict this complication after coronary artery bypass grafting. This study was undertaken to develop a specific prognostic scoring system for the development of deep sternal wound infection that could risk-stratify patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and be applied right after the surgical procedure...
January 2017: Brazilian Journal of Cardiovascular Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28414610/clinical-calculator-for-early-mortality-in-metastatic-colorectal-cancer-an-analysis-of-patients-from-28-clinical-trials-in-the-aide-et-recherche-en-canc%C3%A3-rologie-digestive-database
#4
Lindsay A Renfro, Richard M Goldberg, Axel Grothey, Alberto Sobrero, Richard Adams, Matthew T Seymour, Volker Heinemann, Hans-Joachim Schmoll, Jean-Yves Douillard, Herbert Hurwitz, Charles S Fuchs, Eduardo Diaz-Rubio, Rainer Porschen, Christophe Tournigand, Benoist Chibaudel, Paulo M Hoff, Fairooz F Kabbinavar, Alfredo Falcone, Niall C Tebbutt, Cornelis J A Punt, J Randolph Hecht, John Souglakos, Carsten Bokemeyer, Eric Van Cutsem, Leonard Saltz, Aimery de Gramont, Daniel J Sargent
Purpose Factors contributing to early mortality after initiation of treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer are poorly understood. Materials and Methods Data from 22,654 patients enrolled in 28 randomized phase III trials contained in the ARCAD (Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive) database were pooled. Multivariable logistic regression models for 30-, 60-, and 90-day mortality were constructed, including clinically and statistically significant patient and disease factors and interaction terms. A calculator (nomogram) for 90-day mortality was developed and validated internally using bootstrapping methods and externally using a 10% random holdout sample from each trial...
April 17, 2017: Journal of Clinical Oncology: Official Journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28412995/development-and-validation-of-prediction-models-for-risks-of-complications-in-early-onset-pre-eclampsia-prep-a-prospective-cohort-study
#5
Shakila Thangaratinam, John Allotey, Nadine Marlin, Ben W Mol, Peter Von Dadelszen, Wessel Ganzevoort, Joost Akkermans, Asif Ahmed, Jane Daniels, Jon Deeks, Khaled Ismail, Ann Marie Barnard, Julie Dodds, Sally Kerry, Carl Moons, Richard D Riley, Khalid S Khan
BACKGROUND: The prognosis of early-onset pre-eclampsia (before 34 weeks' gestation) is variable. Accurate prediction of complications is required to plan appropriate management in high-risk women. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate prediction models for outcomes in early-onset pre-eclampsia. DESIGN: Prospective cohort for model development, with validation in two external data sets. SETTING: Model development: 53 obstetric units in the UK...
April 2017: Health Technology Assessment: HTA
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28412062/development-and-internal-validation-of-a-novel-model-to-identify-the-candidates-for-extended-pelvic-lymph-node-dissection-in-prostate-cancer
#6
Giorgio Gandaglia, Nicola Fossati, Emanuele Zaffuto, Marco Bandini, Paolo Dell'Oglio, Carlo Andrea Bravi, Giuseppe Fallara, Francesco Pellegrino, Luigi Nocera, Pierre I Karakiewicz, Zhe Tian, Massimo Freschi, Rodolfo Montironi, Francesco Montorsi, Alberto Briganti
BACKGROUND: Preoperative assessment of the risk of lymph node invasion (LNI) is mandatory to identify prostate cancer (PCa) patients who should receive an extended pelvic lymph node dissection (ePLND). OBJECTIVE: To update a nomogram predicting LNI in contemporary PCa patients with detailed biopsy reports. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Overall, 681 patients with detailed biopsy information, evaluated by a high-volume uropathologist, treated with radical prostatectomy and ePLND between 2011 and 2016 were identified...
April 12, 2017: European Urology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28410590/early-predictors-of-poor-outcome-after-out-of-hospital-cardiac-arrest
#7
Louise Martinell, Niklas Nielsen, Johan Herlitz, Thomas Karlsson, Janneke Horn, Matt P Wise, Johan Undén, Christian Rylander
BACKGROUND: Early identification of predictors for a poor long-term outcome in patients who survive the initial phase of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) may facilitate future clinical research, the process of care and information provided to relatives. The aim of this study was to determine the association between variables available from the patient's history and status at intensive care admission with outcome in unconscious survivors of OHCA. METHODS: Using the cohort of the Target Temperature Management trial, we performed a post hoc analysis of 933 unconscious patients with OHCA of presumed cardiac cause who had a complete 6-month follow-up...
April 13, 2017: Critical Care: the Official Journal of the Critical Care Forum
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28409907/the-roles-of-prostate-specific-antigen-psa-density-prostate-volume-and-their-zone-adjusted-derivatives-in-predicting-prostate-cancer-in-patients-with-psa-less-than-20-0%C3%A2-ng-ml
#8
P Shen, J Zhao, G Sun, N Chen, X Zhang, H Gui, Y Yang, J Liu, K Shu, Z Wang, H Zeng
The aim of this study was to develop nomograms for predicting prostate cancer and its zonal location using prostate-specific antigen density, prostate volume, and their zone-adjusted derivatives. A total of 928 consecutive patients with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) less than 20.0 ng/mL, who underwent transrectal ultrasound-guided transperineal 12-core prostate biopsy at West China Hospital between 2011 and 2014, were retrospectively enrolled. The patients were randomly split into training cohort (70%, n = 650) and validation cohort (30%, n = 278)...
May 2017: Andrology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28392272/a-new-preprocedure-risk-score-for-predicting-contrast-induced-acute-kidney-injury
#9
Chongyang Duan, Yingshu Cao, Yong Liu, Lizhi Zhou, Kaike Ping, Ming T Tan, Ning Tan, Jiyan Chen, Pingyan Chen
BACKGROUND: Most of the risk models for predicting contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) are available for only postcontrast exposure prediction; however, prediction before the procedure is more valuable in practice. This study aimed to develop a risk scoring system based on preprocedural characteristics for early prediction of CI-AKI in patients after coronary angiography or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS: We prospectively recruited 1777 consecutive patients who were randomized in an approximate 3:2 ratio to create a development data set (n = 1076) and a validation data set (n = 701)...
January 28, 2017: Canadian Journal of Cardiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28391551/predicting-posttraumatic-hydrocephalus-derivation-and-validation-of-a-risk-scoring-system-based-on-clinical-characteristics
#10
Hao Chen, Fang Yuan, Shi-Wen Chen, Yan Guo, Gan Wang, Zhi-Feng Deng, Heng-Li Tian
Posttraumatic hydrocephalus (PTH) is a disorder of disturbed cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) dynamics after traumatic brain injury (TBI). It can lead to brain metabolic impairment and dysfunction and has a high risk of clinical deterioration and worse outcomes. The incidence and risk factors for the development of PTH after decompressive craniectomy (DC) has been assessed in previous studies, but rare studies identify patients with higher risk for PTH among all TBI patients. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk scoring system to predict PTH after TBI...
April 9, 2017: Metabolic Brain Disease
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28389492/external-validation-and-extension-of-a-diagnostic-model-for-obstructive-coronary-artery-disease-a-cross-sectional-predictive-evaluation-in-4888-patients-of-the-austrian-coronary-artery-disease-risk-determination-in-innsbruck-by-diagnostic-angiography-cardiigan
#11
Michael Edlinger, Maria Wanitschek, Jakob Dörler, Hanno Ulmer, Hannes F Alber, Ewout W Steyerberg
OBJECTIVE: To externally validate and extend a recently proposed prediction model to diagnose obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), with the ultimate aim to better select patients for coronary angiography. DESIGN: Analysis of individual baseline data of a prospective cardiology cohort. SETTING: Single-centre secondary and tertiary cardiology clinic. PARTICIPANTS: 4888 patients with suspected CAD, without known previous CAD or other heart diseases, who underwent an elective coronary angiography between 2004 and 2008 as part of the prospective Coronary Artery disease Risk Determination In Innsbruck by diaGnostic ANgiography (CARDIIGAN) cohort...
April 7, 2017: BMJ Open
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28388895/development-and-validation-of-a-prognostic-score-during-tuberculosis-treatment
#12
Eric Walter Pefura-Yone, Adamou Dodo Balkissou, Virginie Poka-Mayap, Hadja Koté Fatime-Abaicho, Patrick Thierry Enono-Edende, André Pascal Kengne
BACKGROUND: Death under care is a major challenge for tuberculosis (TB) treatment programs. We derived and validated a simple score to predict mortality during tuberculosis treatment in high endemicity areas. METHODS: We used data for patients aged ≥15 years, diagnosed and treated for tuberculosis at the Yaounde Jamot Hospital between January 2012 and December 2013. Baseline characteristics associated with mortality were investigated using logistic regressions...
April 8, 2017: BMC Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28376187/a-novel-diagnostic-tool-for-selecting-patients-with-mesenchymal-type-colon-cancer-reveals-intratumor-subtype-heterogeneity
#13
Inge Ubink, Sjoerd G Elias, Cathy B Moelans, Miangela M Laclé, Wilhelmina M U van Grevenstein, Paul J van Diest, Inne H M Borel Rinkes, Onno Kranenburg
Background: Consensus molecular subtype 4 (CMS4) is a recently identified aggressive colon cancer subtype for which platelet-derived growth factor receptors (PDGFRs) and KIT are potential therapeutic targets. We aimed to develop a clinically applicable CMS4 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) test to select patients for PDGFR/KIT-targeted therapy. Methods: We used logistic regression to develop a CMS4 prediction rule based on microarray expression values of PDGFRA , PDGFRB , PDGFC , and KIT (566 training and 1259 test samples, using the 273-gene random forest classifier as CMS4 reference standard)...
August 1, 2017: Journal of the National Cancer Institute
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28356148/prediction-of-complications-in-early-onset-pre-eclampsia-prep-development-and-external-multinational-validation-of-prognostic-models
#14
Shakila Thangaratinam, John Allotey, Nadine Marlin, Julie Dodds, Fiona Cheong-See, Peter von Dadelszen, Wessel Ganzevoort, Joost Akkermans, Sally Kerry, Ben W Mol, Karl G M Moons, Richard D Riley, Khalid S Khan
BACKGROUND: Unexpected clinical deterioration before 34 weeks gestation is an undesired course in early-onset pre-eclampsia. To safely prolong preterm gestation, accurate and timely prediction of complications is required. METHOD: Women with confirmed early onset pre-eclampsia were recruited from 53 maternity units in the UK to a large prospective cohort study (PREP-946) for development of prognostic models for the overall risk of experiencing a complication using logistic regression (PREP-L), and for predicting the time to adverse maternal outcome using a survival model (PREP-S)...
March 30, 2017: BMC Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28329631/the-burden-of-keratinocyte-cancer-occurrence-multiplicity-and-predicting-risk
#15
David C Whiteman, Nirmala Pandeya, Bridie Thompson, Padmini Subramaniam, Jean Claude Dusingize, Rachel E Neale, Adele C Green, Catherine M Olsen
The costs of diagnosing and treating basal cell carcinomas (BCC) and squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) are the highest of all cancers in Australia. However, information regarding incidence, multiplicity and risk are scarce as keratinocyte cancers (KCs) are not captured by most registries. To address these gaps, we initiated the QSKIN Study in 2010 recruiting 43,794 Queensland residents from a population register (participation 24%). Participants self-completed a baseline survey recording information on residential history, sun exposure, phenotype and medical and family history...
September 15, 2016: Dermatology Online Journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28328623/a-novel-user-friendly-model-to-predict-corticosteroid-utilization-in-newly-diagnosed-patients-with-ulcerative-colitis
#16
Nabeel Khan, Dhruvan Patel, Yash Shah, Gary Lichtenstein, Yu-Xiao Yang
BACKGROUND: Corticosteroid (CS) use is an important marker of poor prognosis in ulcerative colitis (UC). Our aim was to develop and validate a model to predict the risk of CS utilization over the course of disease in newly diagnosed patients with UC. METHODS: Newly diagnosed patients with UC from a nationwide VA cohort were followed over time to evaluate factors predictive of CS use. Multivariate logistic regression was performed. Model development was performed in a random 2/3 of the total cohort and then validated in the remaining 1/3...
March 21, 2017: Inflammatory Bowel Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28324889/evaluation-of-clinicopathological-factors-in-pd-1-response-derivation-and-validation-of-a-prediction-scale-for-response-to-pd-1-monotherapy
#17
Adi Nosrati, Katy K Tsai, Simone M Goldinger, Paul Tumeh, Barbara Grimes, Kimberly Loo, Alain P Algazi, Thi Dan Linh Nguyen-Kim, Mitchell Levesque, Reinhard Dummer, Omid Hamid, Adil Daud
BACKGROUND: Anti-PD-1 therapy has shown significant clinical activity in advanced melanoma. We developed and validated a clinical prediction scale for response to anti- PD-1 monotherapy. METHODS: A total of 315 patients with advanced melanoma treated with pembrolizumab (2 or 10 mg kg(-1) Q2W or Q3W) or nivolumab (3 mg kg(-1) Q2W) at four cancer centres between 2011 to 2013 served as the setting for the present cohort study. Variables with significant association to response on a univariate analysis were entered into a forward stepwise logistic regression model and were given a score based on ORs to calculate a clinical prediction scale...
April 25, 2017: British Journal of Cancer
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28322106/establishment-and-evaluation-of-a-prognostic-model-for-surgical-outcomes-of-patients-with-atlanto-axial-dislocations
#18
Shuai Guo, Jie Chen, Baohui Yang, Haopeng Li
Objective Atlanto-axial dislocations (AADs) are potentially fatal disturbances with high spinal cord compression syndrome. As surgeons are still uncertain who is likely to benefit the most from surgery, a prediction tool is needed to provide decision-making support. Methods The model was established based on 108 patients with AADs using multiple binary logistic regression analysis and evaluated by calibration plot and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Bootstrapping was used for internal validation...
December 2016: Journal of International Medical Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28320477/risk-prediction-model-for-knee-pain-in-the-nottingham-community-a-bayesian-modelling-approach
#19
G S Fernandes, A Bhattacharya, D F McWilliams, S L Ingham, M Doherty, W Zhang
BACKGROUND: Twenty-five percent of the British population over the age of 50 years experiences knee pain. Knee pain can limit physical ability and cause distress and bears significant socioeconomic costs. The objectives of this study were to develop and validate the first risk prediction model for incident knee pain in the Nottingham community and validate this internally within the Nottingham cohort and externally within the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) cohort. METHODS: A total of 1822 participants from the Nottingham community who were at risk for knee pain were followed for 12 years...
March 20, 2017: Arthritis Research & Therapy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28318513/improving-risk-adjustment-for-mortality-after-pediatric-cardiac-surgery-the-uk-prais2-model
#20
Libby Rogers, Katherine L Brown, Rodney C Franklin, Gareth Ambler, David Anderson, David J Barron, Sonya Crowe, Kate English, John Stickley, Shane Tibby, Victor Tsang, Martin Utley, Thomas Witter, Christina Pagel
BACKGROUND: Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. METHODS: The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers...
March 15, 2017: Annals of Thoracic Surgery
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