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Calibration logistic regression

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29348138/development-and-validation-of-outcome-prediction-models-for-aneurysmal-subarachnoid-haemorrhage-the-sahit-multinational-cohort-study
#1
Blessing N R Jaja, Gustavo Saposnik, Hester F Lingsma, Erin Macdonald, Kevin E Thorpe, Muhammed Mamdani, Ewout W Steyerberg, Andrew Molyneux, Airton Leonardo de Oliveira Manoel, Bawarjan Schatlo, Daniel Hanggi, David Hasan, George K C Wong, Nima Etminan, Hitoshi Fukuda, James Torner, Karl L Schaller, Jose I Suarez, Martin N Stienen, Mervyn D I Vergouwen, Gabriel J E Rinkel, Julian Spears, Michael D Cusimano, Michael Todd, Peter Le Roux, Peter Kirkpatrick, John Pickard, Walter M van den Bergh, Gordon Murray, S Claiborne Johnston, Sen Yamagata, Stephan Mayer, Tom A Schweizer, R Loch Macdonald
OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a set of practical prediction tools that reliably estimate the outcome of subarachnoid haemorrhage from ruptured intracranial aneurysms (SAH). DESIGN: Cohort study with logistic regression analysis to combine predictors and treatment modality. SETTING: Subarachnoid Haemorrhage International Trialists' (SAHIT) data repository, including randomised clinical trials, prospective observational studies, and hospital registries...
January 18, 2018: BMJ: British Medical Journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29343039/-development-of-a-chinese-nomogram-based-on-muti-parametric-magnetic-resonance-for-predicting-the-probability-of-prostate-cancer-in-patients-after-initial-negative-biopsy
#2
C Huang, G J Ji, G Song, H Wang, Y K Chen, L Q Zhou
Objective: To develop a predictive nomogram based on multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) information to identify men more likely to have a cancer diagnosed on repeat prostate biopsy. Methods: The clinical data of 237 patients who received repeat prostate biopsy after initial negative biopsy from Department of Urology of Peking University First Hospital between January 2001 and August 2016 was reviewed. Patient age, body mass index (BMI), serum total prostate-specific antigen (PSA), percent free PSA (f/t), prostate volume (PV), PSA density (PSAD), PSA velocity (PSAV), digital rectal examination (DRE), transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)and mpMRI results were included in the univariate and multivariate analysis...
January 9, 2018: Zhonghua Yi Xue za Zhi [Chinese medical journal]
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29341832/racial-differences-in-21-gene-recurrence-scores-among-patients-with-hormone-receptor-positive-node-negative-breast-cancer
#3
Andreana N Holowatyj, Michele L Cote, Julie J Ruterbusch, Kristina Ghanem, Ann G Schwartz, Fawn D Vigneau, David H Gorski, Kristen S Purrington
Purpose The 21-gene recurrence score (RS) breast cancer assay is clinically used to quantify risk of 10-year distant recurrence by category (low, < 18; intermediate, 18 to 30; high, ≥ 31) for treatment management among women diagnosed with hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, lymph node-negative breast cancer. Although non-Hispanic black (NHB) women have worse prognosis compared with non-Hispanic white (NHW) women, the equivalency of 21-gene RS across racial groups remains unknown...
January 17, 2018: Journal of Clinical Oncology: Official Journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29339343/an-integrated-evaluation-of-some-faecal-indicator-bacteria-fib-and-chemical-markers-as-potential-tools-for-monitoring-sewage-contamination-in-subtropical-estuaries
#4
Ana Caroline Cabral, Jonathan S Stark, Hedda E Kolm, César C Martins
Sewage input and the relationship between chemical markers (linear alkylbenzenes and coprostanol) and fecal indicator bacteria (FIB, Escherichia coli and enterococci), were evaluated in order to establish thresholds values for chemical markers in suspended particulate matter (SPM) as indicators of sewage contamination in two subtropical estuaries in South Atlantic Brazil. Both chemical markers presented no linear relationship with FIB due to high spatial microbiological variability, however, microbiological water quality was related to coprostanol values when analyzed by logistic regression, indicating that linear models may not be the best representation of the relationship between both classes of indicators...
January 12, 2018: Environmental Pollution
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29336752/external-validation-of-velazquez-gomez-severity-score-index-and-atlas-scores-and-the-identification-of-risk-factors-associated-with-mortality-in-clostridium-difficile-infections
#5
Matthew L Figh, Evon S L Zoog, Richard A Moore, Benjamin W Dart, Gregory Heath, Reed M Butler, Cuilan Gao, Joseph C Kong, J Daniel Stanley
Treatment guidelines for Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) are limited by a lack of widely accepted clinical prediction tools (CPTs). Two published CPTs, the Velazquez-Gomez Severity Score Index (VGSSI) and ATLAS scores, were evaluated, and variables showing the greatest correlation with mortality in patients with CDI were identified to further develop an objective, mortality-based CPT. A retrospective review of the charts of 271 hospitalized patients with CDI was performed. VGSSI and ATLAS scores were assigned...
December 1, 2017: American Surgeon
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29311264/starting-sich-nomogram-to-predict-symptomatic-intracerebral-hemorrhage-after-intravenous-thrombolysis-for-stroke
#6
Manuel Cappellari, Gianni Turcato, Stefano Forlivesi, Cecilia Zivelonghi, Paolo Bovi, Bruno Bonetti, Danilo Toni
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) is a rare but the most feared complication of intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for individualized prediction of sICH in intravenous thrombolysis-treated stroke patients included in the multicenter SITS-ISTR (Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-International Stroke Thrombolysis Register). METHODS: All patients registered in the SITS-ISTR by 179 Italian centers between May 2001 and March 2016 were originally included...
January 8, 2018: Stroke; a Journal of Cerebral Circulation
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29306961/prediction-models-to-identify-workers-at-risk-of-sick-leave-due-to-low-back-pain-in-the-dutch-construction-industry
#7
Lisa C Bosman, Lyan Dijkstra, Catelijne I Oling, Martijn W Heymans, Jos Wr Twisk, Corné Am Roelen
Objective The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model based on variables measured in occupational health checks to identify non-sick listed workers at risk of sick leave due to non-specific low-back pain (LBP). Methods This cohort study comprised manual (N=22 648) and non-manual (N=9735) construction workers who participated in occupational health checks between 2010 and 2013. Occupational health check variables were used as potential predictors and LBP sick leave was recorded during 1-year follow-up...
January 7, 2018: Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29302726/which-patients-require-extended-thromboprophylaxis-after-colectomy-modeling-risk-and-assessing-indications-for-post-discharge-pharmacoprophylaxis
#8
Eliza W Beal, Dmitry Tumin, Jeffery Chakedis, Erica Porter, Dimitrios Moris, Xu-Feng Zhang, Mark Arnold, Alan Harzman, Syed Husain, Carl R Schmidt, Timothy M Pawlik
BACKGROUND: Given the conflicting nature of reported risk factors for post-discharge venous thromboembolism (VTE) and unclear guidelines for post-discharge pharmacoprophylaxis, we sought to determine risk factors for 30-day post-discharge VTE after colectomy to predict which patients will benefit from post-discharge pharmacoprophylaxis. METHODS: Patients who underwent colectomy in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Project Participant Use Files from 2011 to 2015 were identified...
January 4, 2018: World Journal of Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29301576/predicting-7-day-30-day-and-60-day-all-cause-unplanned-readmission-a-case-study-of-a-sydney-hospital
#9
Yashar Maali, Oscar Perez-Concha, Enrico Coiera, David Roffe, Richard O Day, Blanca Gallego
BACKGROUND: The identification of patients at high risk of unplanned readmission is an important component of discharge planning strategies aimed at preventing unwanted returns to hospital. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors associated with unplanned readmission in a Sydney hospital. We developed and compared validated readmission risk scores using routinely collected hospital data to predict 7-day, 30-day and 60-day all-cause unplanned readmission. METHODS: A combination of gradient boosted tree algorithms for variable selection and logistic regression models was used to build and validate readmission risk scores using medical records from 62,235 live discharges from a metropolitan hospital in Sydney, Australia...
January 4, 2018: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29298442/the-influence-of-behavioural-and-sociodemographic-risk-indicators-on-erosive-tooth-wear-in-flemish-adolescents-belgium
#10
Francisca Marro, Wolfgang Jacquet, Peter Bottenberg, Luc Martens
Although Belgium has recently been ranked as the second highest consumer of soft drinks in Europe, no data on erosive tooth wear (ETW) are currently available. Therefore, the aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine the prevalence and associated risk indicators of ETW in adolescents residing in the region of Flanders, Belgium. Convenience sampling was used to recruit participants from different types of Belgian schools: general and vocational/technical education. Three calibrated dentists performed the dental examinations and a self-reported questionnaire was applied to evaluate risk indicators related with ETW...
January 4, 2018: Caries Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29297448/score-for-pulmonary-tuberculosis-in-patients-with-clinical-presumption-of-tuberculosis-in-a-low-prevalence-area
#11
T Delory, H Ferrand, N Grall, E Casalino, M Lafarge, B Melot, D Hajage, C Charpentier, M Aubier, F Tubach, E Bouvet, N Gault, Y Yazdanpanah
OBJECTIVES: To develop a diagnostic predictive model for the identification of patients with presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) at high risk for active disease and those requiring nucleic acid amplification (NAAT) testing and/or preventive respiratory isolation in low-incidence, high-income countries. DESIGN: A 1:1 case-control study was conducted in consecutive immunocompetent patients with presumed PTB hospitalised between 2009 and 2012 in Paris, France...
December 1, 2017: International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29290291/a-discussion-of-calibration-techniques-for-evaluating-binary-and-categorical-predictive-models
#12
REVIEW
Caroline Fenlon, Luke O'Grady, Michael L Doherty, John Dunnion
Modelling of binary and categorical events is a commonly used tool to simulate epidemiological processes in veterinary research. Logistic and multinomial regression, naïve Bayes, decision trees and support vector machines are popular data mining techniques used to predict the probabilities of events with two or more outcomes. Thorough evaluation of a predictive model is important to validate its ability for use in decision-support or broader simulation modelling. Measures of discrimination, such as sensitivity, specificity and receiver operating characteristics, are commonly used to evaluate how well the model can distinguish between the possible outcomes...
January 1, 2018: Preventive Veterinary Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29273200/long-term-survival-prediction-for-cabg-validation-of-the-ascert-model-with-comparison-to-sts-prom
#13
Timothy S Lancaster, Matthew R Schill, Jason W Greenberg, Chawannuch Ruaengsri, Richard B Schuessler, Jennifer S Lawton, Hersh S Maniar, Michael K Pasque, Marc R Moon, Ralph J Damiano, Spencer J Melby
BACKGROUND: The recently developed STS/ACC ASCERT Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures, but has yet to be externally validated. METHODS: Institutional data were reviewed on 654 patients ≥65 yr of age undergoing isolated CABG between 2005-2010. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records...
December 19, 2017: Annals of Thoracic Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29259827/risk-factors-of-underweight-in-children-aged-6-59-months-in-ethiopia
#14
Deneke Tosheno, Yohannes Mehretie Adinew, Thilagavathi Thangavel, Shimelash Bitew Workie
Background: Undernutrition in early childhood has irreversible and long-lasting implications. Hence, this study was aimed at assessing risk factors of child undernutrition. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 642 households with mothers to children pairs aged 6-59 months selected by a multistage systematic random sampling method. Child anthropometric measurements on weight were recorded using standardized and calibrated weighing scales...
2017: Journal of Nutrition and Metabolism
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29242352/predicting-risk-in-patients-hospitalized-for-acute-decompensated-heart-failure-and-preserved-ejection-fraction-the-atherosclerosis-risk-in-communities-study-heart-failure-community-surveillance
#15
MULTICENTER STUDY
Tonje Thorvaldsen, Brian L Claggett, Amil Shah, Susan Cheng, Sunil K Agarwal, Lisa M Wruck, Patricia P Chang, Wayne D Rosamond, Eldrin F Lewis, Akshay S Desai, Lars H Lund, Scott D Solomon
BACKGROUND: Risk-prediction models specifically for hospitalized heart failure with preserved ejection fraction are lacking. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study Heart Failure Community Surveillance to create and validate a risk score predicting mortality in patients ≥55 years of age admitted with acute decompensated heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (ejection fraction ≥50%). A modified version of the risk-prediction model for acute heart failure developed from patients in the EFFECT (Enhanced Feedback for Effective Cardiac Treatment) study was used as a composite predictor of 28-day and 1-year mortalities and evaluated together with other potential predictors in a stepwise logistic regression...
December 2017: Circulation. Heart Failure
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29239980/derivation-and-internal-validation-of-a-mortality-prediction-tool-for-initial-survivors-of-pediatric-in-hospital-cardiac-arrest
#16
Mathias J Holmberg, Ari Moskowitz, Tia T Raymond, Robert A Berg, Vinay M Nadkarni, Alexis A Topjian, Anne V Grossestreuer, Michael W Donnino, Lars W Andersen
OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction score for predicting mortality in children following return of spontaneous circulation after in-hospital cardiac arrest. DESIGN: Observational study using prospectively collected data. SETTING: This was an analysis using data from the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation registry between January 2000 and December 2015. PATIENTS: Pediatric patients (< 18 yr old) who achieved return of spontaneous circulation...
December 12, 2017: Pediatric Critical Care Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29237990/predictive-validity-of-crusade-action-and-acuity-horizons-bleeding-risk-scores-in-chinese-patients-with-st-segment-elevation-myocardial-infarction
#17
Ran Liu, Wen Zheng, Guanqi Zhao, Xiao Wang, Xuedong Zhao, Shenghui Zhou, Shaoping Nie
BACKGROUND: The CRUSADE, ACTION and ACUITY-HORIZONS bleeding scores have been derived using Caucasian patients, and little is known about which has the better predictive ability in Chinese patients, especially for patients with STEMI.Methods and Results:We retrospectively analyzed 2,208 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI (PPCI). Major bleeding events were defined according to Bleeding Academic Research Consortium criteria (type 3 or 5). Predictive ability of the 3 scores was assessed using logistic regression and AUC...
December 12, 2017: Circulation Journal: Official Journal of the Japanese Circulation Society
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29233596/a-prediction-model-for-lymph-node-metastasis-in-t1-esophageal-squamous-cell-carcinoma
#18
Jie Wu, Qi-Xun Chen, Di-Jian Shen, Qiang Zhao
BACKGROUND: Endoscopic resection is widely used for the treatment of T1 esophageal cancer, but it cannot be used to treat lymph node metastasis (LNM). This study aimed to develop a prediction model for LNM in patients with T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. METHODS: A prospectively maintained database of all patients who underwent surgery for esophageal cancer between January 2002 and June 2010 was retrospectively reviewed, and patients with T1 squamous cell carcinoma were included in this study...
November 11, 2017: Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29218839/association-between-number-of-teeth-use-of-dentures-and-musculoskeletal-frailty-among-older-adults
#19
Seoyoung Lee, Wael Sabbah
AIM: To assess whether there is a relationship between musculoskeletal frailty and number of teeth/denture use, and whether nutritional intake explains this relationship, in a sample of older Americans. METHODS: Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011/2012 were used. Handgrip strength was used to show musculoskeletal frailty. Number of teeth and denture use were examined by calibrated dentists. Information on sociodemographic factors, nutrients intake and general health status were collected through interviews...
December 7, 2017: Geriatrics & Gerontology International
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29217636/novel-united-kingdom-prognostic-model-for-30-day-mortality-following-transcatheter-aortic-valve-implantation
#20
Glen P Martin, Matthew Sperrin, Peter F Ludman, Mark A de Belder, Simon R Redwood, Jonathan N Townend, Mark Gunning, Neil E Moat, Adrian P Banning, Iain Buchan, Mamas A Mamas
OBJECTIVE: Existing clinical prediction models (CPM) for short-term mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) have limited applicability in the UK due to moderate predictive performance and inconsistent recording practices across registries. The aim of this study was to derive a UK-TAVI CPM to predict 30-day mortality risk for benchmarking purposes. METHODS: A two-step modelling strategy was undertaken: first, data from the UK-TAVI Registry between 2009 and 2014 were used to develop a multivariable logistic regression CPM using backwards stepwise regression...
December 7, 2017: Heart: Official Journal of the British Cardiac Society
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