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Calibration logistic regression

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28526942/development-of-a-new-risk-nomogram-of-perioperative-major-adverse-cardiac-events-for-chinese-patients-undergoing-colorectal-carcinoma-surgery
#1
Juhong Zhang, Ying Xiao, Daya Yang, Xiaodong Zhuang, Ling Wang, Xiuren Gao, Zhibin Huang
PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to create a new risk nomogram to predict perioperative major adverse cardiac events in patients undergoing colorectal carcinoma surgery. METHODS: A total of 1899 patients who underwent colorectal carcinoma surgery at a tertiary teaching hospital in China between 2007 and 2012 were recruited. Logistic regression analysis was used to define risk factors for major adverse cardiac events. A nomogram-predicting model was built based on the logistic regression model and discrimination was tested by receiver operating characteristic curves...
May 19, 2017: International Journal of Colorectal Disease
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28524012/towards-practical-application-of-sensors-for-monitoring-animal-health-design-and-validation-of-a-model-to-detect-ketosis
#2
Machteld Steensels, Ephraim Maltz, Claudia Bahr, Daniel Berckmans, Aharon Antler, Ilan Halachmi
The objective of this study was to design and validate a mathematical model to detect post-calving ketosis. The validation was conducted in four commercial dairy farms in Israel, on a total of 706 multiparous Holstein dairy cows: 203 cows clinically diagnosed with ketosis and 503 healthy cows. A logistic binary regression model was developed, where the dependent variable is categorical (healthy/diseased) and a set of explanatory variables were measured with existing commercial sensors: rumination duration, activity and milk yield of each individual cow...
May 2017: Journal of Dairy Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28513919/functional-status-and-mortality-prediction-in-community-acquired-pneumonia
#3
Kyeongman Jeon, Hongseok Yoo, Byeong-Ho Jeong, Hye Yun Park, Won-Jung Koh, Gee Young Suh, Eliseo Guallar
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Poor functional status (FS) has been suggested as a poor prognostic factor in both pneumonia and severe pneumonia in elderly patients. However, it is still unclear whether FS is associated with outcomes and improves survival prediction in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the general population. METHODS: Data on hospitalized patients with CAP and FS, assessed by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale were prospectively collected between January 2008 and December 2012...
May 17, 2017: Respirology: Official Journal of the Asian Pacific Society of Respirology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28498904/the-acef-ii-risk-score-for-cardiac-surgery-updated-but-still-parsimonious
#4
Marco Ranucci, Valeria Pistuddi, Sabino Scolletta, Carlo de Vincentiis, Lorenzo Menicanti
Aims: The age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score was introduced in 2009 and is presently included in the guidelines for myocardial revascularization of the European Society of Cardiology and Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery as a risk stratification tool for surgical and percutaneous myocardial revascularization. The present study introduces an updated version of the ACEF (ACEF II) inclusive of emergency surgery and pre-operative anaemia. Methods and results: The development series includes 7011 consecutive cardiac surgery patients operated at a single institution...
May 12, 2017: European Heart Journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28498816/the-prostate-health-index-phi-predicts-oncological-outcome-and-biochemical-recurrence-after-radical-prostatectomy-analysis-in-437-patients
#5
Andreas Maxeiner, Ergin Kilic, Julia Matalon, Frank Friedersdorff, Kurt Miller, Klaus Jung, Carsten Stephan, Jonas Busch
The purpose of this study was to investigate the Prostate-Health-Index (PHI) for pathological outcome prediction following radical prostatectomy and also for biochemical recurrence prediction in comparison to established parameters such as Gleason-score, pathological tumor stage, resection status (R0/1) and prostate-specific antigen (PSA).Out of a cohort of 460 cases with preoperative PHI-measurements (World Health Organization calibration: Beckman Coulter Access-2-Immunoassay) between 2001 and 2014, 437 patients with complete follow up data were included...
April 27, 2017: Oncotarget
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28487034/usefulness-of-multiple-biomarkers-for-predicting-incident-major-adverse-cardiac-events-in-patients-who-underwent-diagnostic-coronary-angiography-from-the-catheter-sampled-blood-archive-in-cardiovascular-diseases-casablanca-study
#6
Cian P McCarthy, Roland R J van Kimmenade, Hanna K Gaggin, Mandy L Simon, Nasrien E Ibrahim, Parul Gandhi, Noreen Kelly, Shweta R Motiwala, Arianna M Belcher, Jamie Harisiades, Craig A Magaret, Rhonda F Rhyne, James L Januzzi
We sought to develop a multiple biomarker approach for prediction of incident major adverse cardiac events (MACE; composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke) in patients referred for coronary angiography. In a 649-participant training cohort, predictors of MACE within 1 year were identified using least-angle regression; over 50 clinical variables and 109 biomarkers were analyzed. Predictive models were generated using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with logistic regression...
April 12, 2017: American Journal of Cardiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28486891/assessing-contemporary-intensive-care-unit-outcome-development-and-validation-of-the-australian-and-new-zealand-risk-of-death-admission-model
#7
E Paul, M Bailey, J Kasza, D V Pilcher
The Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death (ANZROD) model currently used for benchmarking intensive care units (ICUs) in Australia and New Zealand utilises physiological data collected up to 24 hours after ICU admission to estimate the risk of hospital mortality. This study aimed to develop the Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death admission (ANZROD<sub>0</sub>) model to predict hospital mortality using data available at presentation to ICU and compare its performance with the ANZROD in Australian and New Zealand hospitals...
May 2017: Anaesthesia and Intensive Care
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28480827/meta-analysis-of-prediction-model-performance-across-multiple-studies-which-scale-helps-ensure-between-study-normality-for-the-c-statistic-and-calibration-measures
#8
Kym Ie Snell, Joie Ensor, Thomas Pa Debray, Karel Gm Moons, Richard D Riley
If individual participant data are available from multiple studies or clusters, then a prediction model can be externally validated multiple times. This allows the model's discrimination and calibration performance to be examined across different settings. Random-effects meta-analysis can then be used to quantify overall (average) performance and heterogeneity in performance. This typically assumes a normal distribution of 'true' performance across studies. We conducted a simulation study to examine this normality assumption for various performance measures relating to a logistic regression prediction model...
January 1, 2017: Statistical Methods in Medical Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28468615/epithelial-ciliated-beating-cells-essential-for-ex-vivo-ali-culture-growth
#9
Delphine Gras, Aurélie Petit, Jérémy Charriot, Lucie Knabe, Khuder Alagha, Anne Sophie Gamez, Céline Garulli, Arnaud Bourdin, Pascal Chanez, Nicolas Molinari, Isabelle Vachier
BACKGROUND: Bronchial epithelium plays a key role in orchestrating innate and adaptive immunity. The fate of ex vivo airway epithelial cultures growing at the air liquid interface (ALI) derived from human endobronchial biopsies or brushings is not easy to predict. Calibrating and differentiating these cells is a long and expensive process requiring rigorous expertise. Pinpointing factors associated with ALI culture success would help researchers gain further insight into epithelial progenitor behavior...
May 3, 2017: BMC Pulmonary Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28459847/sample-size-calculation-to-externally-validate-scoring-systems-based-on-logistic-regression-models
#10
Antonio Palazón-Bru, David Manuel Folgado-de la Rosa, Ernesto Cortés-Castell, María Teresa López-Cascales, Vicente Francisco Gil-Guillén
BACKGROUND: A sample size containing at least 100 events and 100 non-events has been suggested to validate a predictive model, regardless of the model being validated and that certain factors can influence calibration of the predictive model (discrimination, parameterization and incidence). Scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models are a specific type of predictive model. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop an algorithm to determine the sample size for validating a scoring system based on a binary logistic regression model and to apply it to a case study...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28447109/diagnostic-nomogram-for-gallbladder-wall-thickening-mimicking-malignancy-using-contrast-enhanced-ultrasonography-or-multi-detector-computed-tomography
#11
Li-Da Chen, Yang Huang, Xiao-Hua Xie, Wei Chen, Quan-Yuan Shan, Ming Xu, Jin-Ya Liu, Zhi-Qiang Nie, Xiao-Yan Xie, Ming-De Lu, Shun-Li Shen, Wei Wang
OBJECTIVES: To establish a diagnostic nomogram using contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS) in gallbladder wall thickening mimicking malignancy and compare with multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT). METHODS: Seventy-two patients with gallbladder wall thickening on B-mode ultrasonography (BUS) were examined by CEUS to develop independent predictors for diagnosing gallbladder carcinoma. Among the 72 cases, 48 patients underwent both CEUS and MDCT. The diagnostic performances of different sets of CEUS criteria and MDCT were compared...
April 26, 2017: Abdominal Radiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28446010/development-of-decision-support-formulas-for-the-prediction-of-bladder-outlet-obstruction-and-prostatic-surgery-in-patients-with-lower-urinary-tract-symptom-benign-prostatic-hyperplasia-part-i-development-of-the-formula-and-its-internal-validation
#12
Min Soo Choo, Changwon Yoo, Sung Yong Cho, Seong Jin Jeong, Chang Wook Jeong, Ja Hyeon Ku, Seung-June Oh
PURPOSE: As the elderly population increases, a growing number of patients have lower urinary tract symptom (LUTS)/benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). The aim of this study was to develop decision support formulas and nomograms for the prediction of bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) and for BOO-related surgical decision-making, and to validate them in patients with LUTS/BPH. METHODS: Patient with LUTS/BPH between October 2004 and May 2014 were enrolled as a development cohort...
April 2017: International Neurourology Journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28441848/-short-term-clinical-outcomes-and-risk-factors-associated-with-in-hospital-mortality-in-patients-undergoing-off-pump-coronary-artery-bypass-grafting
#13
K Hua, J J Sheng, R Dong
Objective: To explore short-term clinical outcomes and risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCABG) and establish a prediction model for in-hospital mortality. Methods: The clinical data of patients undergoing OPCABG in Beijing Anzhen Hospital between January 2014 and January 2016 was retrospectively studied. Univariate analysis and logistic regression were applied to determine the potential risk factors, and then a prediction model for mortality was confirmed...
April 25, 2017: Zhonghua Yi Xue za Zhi [Chinese medical journal]
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28429830/establishment-and-evaluation-of-a-novel-biomarker-based-nomogram-for-malignant-phaeochromocytomas-and-paragangliomas
#14
Xu Zhong, Lei Ye, TingWei Su, Jing Xie, Weiwei Zhou, Yiran Jiang, Lei Jiang, Guang Ning, Weiqing Wang
OBJECTIVE: No single histological or molecular marker is diagnostic for malignant phaeochromocytomas and paragangliomas (PPGLs). This study aimed to establish and evaluate a prognostic nomogram to improve the prediction of metastatic probability in individual PPGL patients. METHODS: Three hundred and forty-seven consecutive PPGL patients from January 2002 through December 2014 were randomly divided into a training set (n=208) and a validation set (n=139). A multivariate logistic regression analysis of selected prognostic features was performed, and a nomogram to predict metastasis was constructed...
April 21, 2017: Clinical Endocrinology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28423122/development-and-validation-of-a-stratification-tool-for-predicting-risk-of-deep-sternal-wound-infection-after-coronary-artery-bypass-grafting-at-a-brazilian-hospital
#15
Michel Pompeu Barros Oliveira Sá, Paulo Ernando Ferraz, Artur Freire Soares, Rodrigo Gusmão Albuquerque Miranda, Mayara Lopes Araújo, Frederico Vasconcelos Silva, Ricardo de Carvalho Lima
Objective: Deep sternal wound infection following coronary artery bypass grafting is a serious complication associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite the substantial impact of deep sternal wound infection, there is a lack of specific risk stratification tools to predict this complication after coronary artery bypass grafting. This study was undertaken to develop a specific prognostic scoring system for the development of deep sternal wound infection that could risk-stratify patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and be applied right after the surgical procedure...
January 2017: Brazilian Journal of Cardiovascular Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28414610/clinical-calculator-for-early-mortality-in-metastatic-colorectal-cancer-an-analysis-of-patients-from-28-clinical-trials-in-the-aide-et-recherche-en-canc%C3%A3-rologie-digestive-database
#16
Lindsay A Renfro, Richard M Goldberg, Axel Grothey, Alberto Sobrero, Richard Adams, Matthew T Seymour, Volker Heinemann, Hans-Joachim Schmoll, Jean-Yves Douillard, Herbert Hurwitz, Charles S Fuchs, Eduardo Diaz-Rubio, Rainer Porschen, Christophe Tournigand, Benoist Chibaudel, Paulo M Hoff, Fairooz F Kabbinavar, Alfredo Falcone, Niall C Tebbutt, Cornelis J A Punt, J Randolph Hecht, John Souglakos, Carsten Bokemeyer, Eric Van Cutsem, Leonard Saltz, Aimery de Gramont, Daniel J Sargent
Purpose Factors contributing to early mortality after initiation of treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer are poorly understood. Materials and Methods Data from 22,654 patients enrolled in 28 randomized phase III trials contained in the ARCAD (Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive) database were pooled. Multivariable logistic regression models for 30-, 60-, and 90-day mortality were constructed, including clinically and statistically significant patient and disease factors and interaction terms. A calculator (nomogram) for 90-day mortality was developed and validated internally using bootstrapping methods and externally using a 10% random holdout sample from each trial...
April 17, 2017: Journal of Clinical Oncology: Official Journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28412995/development-and-validation-of-prediction-models-for-risks-of-complications-in-early-onset-pre-eclampsia-prep-a-prospective-cohort-study
#17
Shakila Thangaratinam, John Allotey, Nadine Marlin, Ben W Mol, Peter Von Dadelszen, Wessel Ganzevoort, Joost Akkermans, Asif Ahmed, Jane Daniels, Jon Deeks, Khaled Ismail, Ann Marie Barnard, Julie Dodds, Sally Kerry, Carl Moons, Richard D Riley, Khalid S Khan
BACKGROUND: The prognosis of early-onset pre-eclampsia (before 34 weeks' gestation) is variable. Accurate prediction of complications is required to plan appropriate management in high-risk women. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate prediction models for outcomes in early-onset pre-eclampsia. DESIGN: Prospective cohort for model development, with validation in two external data sets. SETTING: Model development: 53 obstetric units in the UK...
April 2017: Health Technology Assessment: HTA
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28412062/development-and-internal-validation-of-a-novel-model-to-identify-the-candidates-for-extended-pelvic-lymph-node-dissection-in-prostate-cancer
#18
Giorgio Gandaglia, Nicola Fossati, Emanuele Zaffuto, Marco Bandini, Paolo Dell'Oglio, Carlo Andrea Bravi, Giuseppe Fallara, Francesco Pellegrino, Luigi Nocera, Pierre I Karakiewicz, Zhe Tian, Massimo Freschi, Rodolfo Montironi, Francesco Montorsi, Alberto Briganti
BACKGROUND: Preoperative assessment of the risk of lymph node invasion (LNI) is mandatory to identify prostate cancer (PCa) patients who should receive an extended pelvic lymph node dissection (ePLND). OBJECTIVE: To update a nomogram predicting LNI in contemporary PCa patients with detailed biopsy reports. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Overall, 681 patients with detailed biopsy information, evaluated by a high-volume uropathologist, treated with radical prostatectomy and ePLND between 2011 and 2016 were identified...
April 12, 2017: European Urology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28410590/early-predictors-of-poor-outcome-after-out-of-hospital-cardiac-arrest
#19
Louise Martinell, Niklas Nielsen, Johan Herlitz, Thomas Karlsson, Janneke Horn, Matt P Wise, Johan Undén, Christian Rylander
BACKGROUND: Early identification of predictors for a poor long-term outcome in patients who survive the initial phase of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) may facilitate future clinical research, the process of care and information provided to relatives. The aim of this study was to determine the association between variables available from the patient's history and status at intensive care admission with outcome in unconscious survivors of OHCA. METHODS: Using the cohort of the Target Temperature Management trial, we performed a post hoc analysis of 933 unconscious patients with OHCA of presumed cardiac cause who had a complete 6-month follow-up...
April 13, 2017: Critical Care: the Official Journal of the Critical Care Forum
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28409907/the-roles-of-prostate-specific-antigen-psa-density-prostate-volume-and-their-zone-adjusted-derivatives-in-predicting-prostate-cancer-in-patients-with-psa-less-than-20-0%C3%A2-ng-ml
#20
P Shen, J Zhao, G Sun, N Chen, X Zhang, H Gui, Y Yang, J Liu, K Shu, Z Wang, H Zeng
The aim of this study was to develop nomograms for predicting prostate cancer and its zonal location using prostate-specific antigen density, prostate volume, and their zone-adjusted derivatives. A total of 928 consecutive patients with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) less than 20.0 ng/mL, who underwent transrectal ultrasound-guided transperineal 12-core prostate biopsy at West China Hospital between 2011 and 2014, were retrospectively enrolled. The patients were randomly split into training cohort (70%, n = 650) and validation cohort (30%, n = 278)...
May 2017: Andrology
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