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Basic reproductive number

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28929911/understanding-the-effects-of-intermittent-shedding-on-the-transmission-of-infectious-diseases-example-of-salmonellosis-in-pigs
#1
Glenn E Lahodny, Raju Gautam, Renata Ivanek
A number of environmentally transmitted infectious diseases are characterized by intermittent infectiousness of infected hosts. However, it is unclear whether intermittent infectiousness must be explicitly accounted for in mathematical models for these diseases or if a simplified modelling approach is acceptable. To address this question we study the transmission of salmonellosis between penned pigs in a grower-finisher facility. The model considers indirect transmission, growth of free-living Salmonella within the environment, and environmental decontamination...
December 2017: Journal of Biological Dynamics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28928793/effect-of-rainfall-for-the-dynamical-transmission-model-of-the-dengue-disease-in-thailand
#2
Pratchaya Chanprasopchai, Puntani Pongsumpun, I Ming Tang
The SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model is used to describe the transmission of dengue virus. The main contribution is determining the role of the rainfall in Thailand in the model. The transmission of dengue disease is assumed to depend on the nature of the rainfall in Thailand. We analyze the dynamic transmission of dengue disease. The stability of the solution of the model is analyzed. It is investigated by using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria. We find two equilibrium states: a disease-free state and an endemic equilibrium state...
2017: Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28910935/-application-of-state-space-model-in-the-evaluation-of-the-prevention-and-control-for-mumps
#3
C Luo, R Z Li, Q Q Xu, P Xiong, Y X Liu, F Z Xue, Q Xu, X J Li
Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in 2012 and 2014, and to explore the preventive effect of the second dose of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) in mumps in Shandong province. Methods: On the basis of certain model assumptions, a Space State model was formulated. Iterated Filter was applied to the epidemic model to estimate the parameters. Results: The basic reproduction number (R(0)) for children in schools was 4.49 (95%CI: 4.30-4.67) and 2.50 (95%CI: 2.38-2.61) respectively for the year of 2012 and 2014...
September 10, 2017: Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue za Zhi, Zhonghua Liuxingbingxue Zazhi
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28895527/assessing-the-danger-of-self-sustained-hiv-epidemics-in-heterosexuals-by-population-based-phylogenetic-cluster-analysis
#4
Teja Turk, Nadine Bachmann, Claus Kadelka, Jürg Böni, Sabine Yerly, Vincent Aubert, Thomas Klimkait, Manuel Battegay, Enos Bernasconi, Alexandra Calmy, Matthias Cavassini, Hansjakob Furrer, Matthias Hoffmann, Huldrych F Günthard, Roger D Kouyos
Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters...
September 12, 2017: ELife
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28894473/computational-and-mathematical-methods-to-estimate-the-basic-reproduction-number-and-final-size-for-single-stage-and-multistage-progression-disease-models-for-zika-with-preventative-measures
#5
P Padmanabhan, P Seshaiyer
We present new mathematical models that include the impact of using selected preventative measures such as insecticide treated nets (ITN) in controlling or ameliorating the spread of the Zika virus. For these models, we derive the basic reproduction number and sharp estimates for the final size relation. We first present a single-stage model which is later extended to a new multistage model for Zika that incorporates more realistic incubation stages for both the humans and vectors. For each of these models, we derive a basic reproduction number and a final size relation estimate...
2017: Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28893267/is-the-role-of-health-extension-workers-in-the-delivery-of-maternal-and-child-health-care-services-a-significant-attribute-the-case-of-dale-district-southern-ethiopia
#6
Abel Negussie, Gedion Girma
BACKGROUND: The Health Extension Program (HEP) is one of the most innovative community based health program launched by the Ethiopian Federal Ministry of Health to make health services accessible to rural communities by setting-out women Health Extension Workers (HEWs) in rural Health Posts. The HEWs are premised to provide basic, largely preventive, primary health services to rural villages and the program gives special attention to children and mothers. The objective of the study was to assess the contribution made by the Health Extension Workers in maternal and child health care service delivery in Dale district, southern Ethiopia...
September 11, 2017: BMC Health Services Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28889316/global-stability-of-multi-group-viral-models-with-general-incidence-functions
#7
Dejun Fan, Pengmiao Hao, Dongyan Sun
In this paper, strongly connected and non-strongly connected multi-group viral models with time delays and general incidence functions are considered. Employing the Lyapunov functional method and a graph-theoretic approach, we show that the global dynamics of the strongly connected system are determined by the basic reproduction number under some reasonable conditions for incidence functions. In addition, we find a more complex and more interesting result for multi-group viral models with non-strongly connected networks because of the basic reproduction numbers corresponding to each strongly connected component...
September 9, 2017: Journal of Mathematical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28884277/global-stability-for-epidemic-models-on-multiplex-networks
#8
Yu-Jhe Huang, Jonq Juang, Yu-Hao Liang, Hsin-Yu Wang
In this work, we consider an epidemic model in a two-layer network in which the dynamics of susceptible-infected-susceptible process in the physical layer coexists with that of a cyclic process of unaware-aware-unaware in the virtual layer. For such multiplex network, we shall define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] in the virtual layer, which is similar to the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] defined in the physical layer. We show analytically that if [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], then the disease and information free equilibrium is globally stable and if [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], then the disease free and information saturated equilibrium is globally stable for all initial conditions except at the origin...
September 7, 2017: Journal of Mathematical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28878963/the-impact-of-weather-and-storm-water-management-ponds-on-the-transmission-of-west-nile-virus
#9
Yiyuan Wang, Wendy Pons, Jessica Fang, Huaiping Zhu
West Nile virus (WNV) is the most widely distributed arbovirus in the world and the spread is influenced by complex factors including weather conditions and urban environmental settings like storm water management ponds (SWMP). The purpose of this work was to develop an ordinary differential equation model to explore the impacts of SWMP, temperature and precipitation on WNV vector abundance and the transmission of WNV between mosquito and bird populations. The model was used to analyse how weather conditions and SWMP can influence the basic reproduction number...
August 2017: Royal Society Open Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28864398/the-role-of-asymptomatics-and-dogs-on-leishmaniasis-propagation
#10
Lourdes Esteva, Cristobal Vargas, Cruz Vargas de León
Leishmaniasis is a parasite disease transmitted by the bites of sandflies. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is the most common form of the disease and it is endemic in the Americas. Around 70 animal species, including humans, have been found as natural reservoir hosts of leishmania parasites. Among the reservoirs, dogs are the most important ones due to their proximity to the human habitat. Infection by leishmaniasis does not invariably cause illness in the host, and it also can remain asymptomatic for a long period, specially in dogs...
August 31, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28859911/global-dynamics-of-a-mathematical-model-for-the-possible-re-emergence-of-polio
#11
Attila Dénes, László Székely
Motivated by studies warning about a possible re-emergence of poliomyelitis in Europe, we analyse a compartmental model for the transmission of polio describing the possible effect of unvaccinated people arriving to a region with low vaccination coverage. We calculate the basic reproduction number, and determine the global dynamics of the system: we show that, depending on the parameters, one of the two equilibria is globally asymptotically stable. The main tools applied are Lyapunov functions and persistence theory...
August 30, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28859431/different-challenges-in-eliminating-hpv16-compared-to-other-types-a-modeling-study
#12
Iacopo Baussano, Fulvio Lazzarato, Guglielmo Ronco, Matti Lehtinen, Joakim Dillner, Silvia Franceschi
Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is still not reaching many high-risk populations. HPV16/18 vaccines offer cross-protection against other types, for example, HPV45. Both direct vaccine efficacy and indirect herd protection contribute to vaccination effectiveness. Methods: We used a dynamic transmission model, calibrated to cervical screening data from Italy, to estimate vaccination effectiveness against HPV16 and HPV45 infection, assuming for HPV45 either 95% or lower cross-protection...
August 1, 2017: Journal of Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28854189/a-dynamic-model-for-estimating-adult-female-mortality-from-ovarian-dissection-data-for-the-tsetse-fly-glossina-pallidipes-austen-sampled-in-zimbabwe
#13
Sarah F Ackley, John W Hargrove
Human and animal trypanosomiasis, spread by tsetse flies (Glossina spp), is a major public health concern in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The basic reproduction number of vector-borne diseases, such as trypanosomiasis, is a function of vector mortality rate. Robust methods for estimating tsetse mortality are thus of interest for understanding population and disease dynamics and for optimal control. Existing methods for estimating mortality in adult tsetse, from ovarian dissection data, often use invalid assumptions of the existence of a stable age distribution, and age-invariant mortality and capture probability...
August 2017: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28852830/global-hopf-bifurcation-of-a-delayed-equation-describing-the-lag-effect-of-media-impact-on-the-spread-of-infectious-disease
#14
Pengfei Song, Yanni Xiao
We proposed a delay differential model, associated with the response time for individuals to the current infection, to examine the media impact on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. We investigated the global bifurcation by considering the delay as a bifurcation parameter and examined the onset and termination of Hopf bifurcations from a positive equilibrium. Numerical studies to identify ranges of parameters for coexisting multiple periodic solutions are guided by the bifurcation analysis and the Matlab package DDE-BIFTOOL developed by Engelborghs et al...
August 29, 2017: Journal of Mathematical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28843692/invited-review-a-perspective-on-the-future-of-genomic-selection-in-dairy-cattle
#15
J I Weller, E Ezra, M Ron
Genomic evaluation has been successfully implemented in the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Ireland, New Zealand, Australia, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and the Scandinavian countries. Adoption of this technology in the major dairy producing countries has led to significant changes in the worldwide dairy industry. Gradual elimination of the progeny test system has led to a reduction in the number of sires with daughter records and fewer genetic ties between years. As genotyping costs decrease, the number of cows genotyped will continue to increase, and these records will become the basic data used to compute genomic evaluations, most likely via application of "single-step" methodologies...
August 23, 2017: Journal of Dairy Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28830383/midwives-and-patients-perspectives-on-disrespect-and-abuse-during-labor-and-delivery-care-in-ethiopia-a-qualitative-study
#16
Sahai Burrowes, Sarah Jane Holcombe, Dube Jara, Danielle Carter, Katheryn Smith
BACKGROUND: It is increasingly recognized that disrespect and abuse of women during labor and delivery is a violation of a woman's rights and a deterrent to the use of life-saving, facility-based labor and delivery services. In Ethiopia, rates of skilled birth attendance are still only 28% despite a recent dramatic national scale up in the numbers of trained providers and facilities. Concerns have been raised that womens' perceptions of poor quality of care and fear of mistreatment might contribute to this low utilization...
August 22, 2017: BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28812540/quantifying-transmission
#17
Mark Woolhouse
Transmissibility is the defining characteristic of infectious diseases. Quantifying transmission matters for understanding infectious disease epidemiology and designing evidence-based disease control programs. Tracing individual transmission events can be achieved by epidemiological investigation coupled with pathogen typing or genome sequencing. Individual infectiousness can be estimated by measuring pathogen loads, but few studies have directly estimated the ability of infected hosts to transmit to uninfected hosts...
July 2017: Microbiology Spectrum
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28807164/effect-of-chinese-herbal-medicine-on-male-infertility
#18
Dan Jiang, Alberto Coscione, Lily Li, Bai-Yun Zeng
Male infertility normally refers a male's inability to cause pregnancy in a fertile female partner after 1 year of unprotected intercourse. Male infertility in recent years has been attracting increasing interest from public due to the evidence in decline in semen quality. There are many factors contributing to the male infertility including abnormal spermatogenesis; reproductive tract anomalies or obstruction; inadequate sexual and ejaculatory functions; and impaired sperm motility, imbalance in hormone levels, and immune system dysfunction...
2017: International Review of Neurobiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28805017/estimating-the-between-farm-transmission-rates-for-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-subtype-h5n1-epidemics-in-bangladesh-between-2007-and-2013
#19
A Ssematimba, I Okike, G M Ahmed, M Yamage, G J Boender, T J Hagenaars, B Bett
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is classified by the World Organization for Animal Health as one of the notifiable diseases. Its occurrence is associated with severe socio-economic impacts and is also zoonotic. Bangladesh HPAI epidemic data for the period between 2007 and 2013 were obtained and split into epidemic waves based on the time lag between outbreaks. By assuming the number of newly infected farms to be binomially distributed, we fit a Generalized Linear Model to the data to estimate between-farm transmission rates (β)...
August 14, 2017: Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28803069/estimating-the-reproductive-number-total-outbreak-size-and-reporting-rates-for-zika-epidemics-in-south-and-central-america
#20
Deborah P Shutt, Carrie A Manore, Stephen Pankavich, Aaron T Porter, Sara Y Del Valle
As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification...
July 13, 2017: Epidemics
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