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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28324189/stability-of-a-stochastic-model-of-an-sir-epidemic-with-vaccination
#1
P J Witbooi
We prove almost sure exponential stability for the disease-free equilibrium of a stochastic differential equations model of an SIR epidemic with vaccination. The model allows for vertical transmission. The stochastic perturbation is associated with the force of infection and is such that the total population size remains constant in time. We prove almost sure positivity of solutions. The main result concerns especially the smaller values of the diffusion parameter, and describes the stability in terms of an analogue [Formula: see text] of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the underlying deterministic model, with [Formula: see text]...
March 21, 2017: Acta Biotheoretica
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28320240/immunogenesis-of-preeclampsia-lessons-from-donor-gametes
#2
Richard P Porreco, Kent D Heyborne
BACKGROUND: Preeclampsia remains an important complication of pregnancy. It is associated with mortality and morbidity for both maternal and fetal/newborn patients. Although major inroads have been made in understanding the pathophysiology of preeclampsia in recent decades, the initial primary cause of its occurrence in some women and not others has escaped clarification. REVIEW: There have been a number of clinical clues pointing to an immune genesis of this disease, including most recently the use of donor gametes in assisted reproductive technology (ART)...
March 20, 2017: Journal of Maternal-fetal & Neonatal Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28288565/healthcare-workers-behaviors-and-personal-determinants-associated-with-providing-adequate-sexual-and-reproductive-healthcare-services-in-sub-saharan-africa-a-systematic-review
#3
Kim Jonas, Rik Crutzen, Bart van den Borne, Priscilla Reddy
BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers may affect the utilization of sexual and reproductive healthcare (SRH) services, and quality of care thereof, for example by their behaviours or attitudes they hold. This can become a hindrance to accessing and utilizing SRH services, particularly by young people, and thus a better understanding of these behaviours and associated factors is needed to improve access to and utilization of SRH services. METHODS: A systematic review of literature was conducted to identify studies focusing on healthcare workers' behaviors and personal determinants associated with providing adequate SRH services in sub-Saharan Africa (January 1990 - October 2015)...
March 13, 2017: BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28287496/model-based-evaluation-of-strategies-to-control-brucellosis-in-china
#4
Ming-Tao Li, Gui-Quan Sun, Wen-Yi Zhang, Zhen Jin
Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Brucellosis has become a major public health problem in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to evaluate different intervention strategies to curb brucellosis transmission in China, a novel mathematical model with a general indirect transmission incidence rate was presented. By comparing the results of three models using national human disease data and 11 provinces with high case numbers, the best fitted model with standard incidence was used to investigate the potential for future outbreaks...
March 12, 2017: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28284964/optimal-control-of-a-malaria-model-with-asymptomatic-class-and-superinfection
#5
Liming Cai, Xuezhi Li, Necibe Tuncer, Maia Martcheva, Abid Ali Lashari
In this paper, we introduce a malaria model with an asymptomatic class in human population and exposed classes in both human and vector populations. The model assumes that asymptomatic individuals can get re-infected and move to the symptomatic class. In the case of an incomplete treatment, symptomatic individuals move to the asymptomatic class. If successfully treated, the symptomatic individuals recover and move to the susceptible class. The basic reproduction number, R0, is computed using the next generation approach...
March 9, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28275824/from-homogeneous-eigenvalue-problems-to-two-sex-population-dynamics
#6
Horst R Thieme
Enclosure theorems are derived for homogeneous bounded order-preserving operators and illustrated for operators involving pair-formation functions introduced by Karl-Peter Hadeler in the late 1980s. They are applied to a basic discrete-time two-sex population model and to the relation between the basic turnover number and the basic reproduction number.
March 8, 2017: Journal of Mathematical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28274854/mathematical-analysis-of-a-power-law-form-time-dependent-vector-borne-disease-transmission-model
#7
Tridip Sardar, Bapi Saha
In the last few years, fractional order derivatives have been used in epidemiology to capture the memory phenomena. However, these models do not have proper biological justification in most of the cases and lack a derivation from a stochastic process. In this present manuscript, using theory of a stochastic process, we derived a general time dependent single strain vector borne disease model. It is shown that under certain choice of time dependent transmission kernel this model can be converted into the classical integer order system...
March 6, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28240195/zika-in-rio-de-janeiro-assessment-of-basic-reproduction-number-and-comparison-with-dengue-outbreaks
#8
D A M Villela, L S Bastos, L M DE Carvalho, O G Cruz, M F C Gomes, B Durovni, M C Lemos, V Saraceni, F C Coelho, C T Codeço
Zika virus infection was declared a public health emergency of international concern in February 2016 in response to the outbreak in Brazil and its suspected link with congenital anomalies. In this study, we use notification data and disease natural history parameters to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) of Zika in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We also obtain estimates of R 0 of dengue from time series of dengue cases in the outbreaks registered in 2002 and 2012 in the city, when DENV-3 and DENV-4 serotypes, respectively, had just emerged...
February 27, 2017: Epidemiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28231324/a-framework-for-analyzing-contagion-in-assortative-banking-networks
#9
Thomas R Hurd, James P Gleeson, Sergey Melnik
We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas our framework explicitly allows for (dis)assortative edge probabilities (i.e., a tendency for small banks to link to large banks). We analyze default cascades triggered by shocking the network and find that the cascade can be understood as an explicit iterated mapping on a set of edge probabilities that converges to a fixed point...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28222682/a-statistical-method-utilizing-information-of-imported-cases-to-estimate-the-transmissibility-for-an-influenza-pandemic
#10
Ka Chun Chong, Benny Chung Ying Zee, Maggie Haitian Wang
BACKGROUND: In a new influenza pandemic, travel data such as arrival times of cases seeded by the originating country can be regarded as a combination of the epidemic size and the mobility networks of infections connecting the originating country with other regions. It can be a complete and timely source for estimating the basic reproduction number (R 0 ), a key indicator of disease transmissibility. METHOD: In this study, we developed a likelihood-based method using arrival times of infected cases in different countries to estimate R 0 for influenza pandemics...
February 21, 2017: BMC Medical Research Methodology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28202592/extinction-pathways-and-outbreak-vulnerability-in-a-stochastic-ebola-model
#11
Garrett T Nieddu, Lora Billings, James H Kaufman, Eric Forgoston, Simone Bianco
A zoonotic disease is a disease that can be passed from animals to humans. Zoonotic viruses may adapt to a human host eventually becoming endemic in humans, but before doing so punctuated outbreaks of the zoonotic virus may be observed. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) is an example of such a disease. The animal population in which the disease agent is able to reproduce in sufficient number to be able to transmit to a susceptible human host is called a reservoir. There is little work devoted to understanding stochastic population dynamics in the presence of a reservoir, specifically the phenomena of disease extinction and reintroduction...
February 2017: Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28187137/controlling-viral-outbreaks-quantitative-strategies
#12
Anna Mummert, Howard Weiss
Preparing for and responding to outbreaks of serious livestock infectious diseases are critical measures to safeguard animal health, public health, and food supply. Almost all of the current control strategies are empirical, and mass culling or "stamping out" is frequently the principal strategy for controlling epidemics. However, there are ethical, ecological, and economic reasons to consider less drastic control strategies. Here we use modeling to quantitatively study the efficacy of different control measures for viral outbreaks, where the infectiousness, transmissibility and death rate of animals commonly depends on their viral load...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28183336/assessing-the-impact-of-intervention-strategies-against-taenia-solium-cysticercosis-using-the-epicyst-transmission-model
#13
Peter Winskill, Wendy E Harrison, Michael D French, Matthew A Dixon, Bernadette Abela-Ridder, María-Gloria Basáñez
BACKGROUND: The pork tapeworm, Taenia solium, and associated human infections, taeniasis, cysticercosis and neurocysticercosis, are serious public health problems, especially in developing countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set goals for having a validated strategy for control and elimination of T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis by 2015 and interventions scaled-up in selected countries by 2020. Timely achievement of these internationally-endorsed targets requires that the relative benefits and effectiveness of potential interventions be explored rigorously within a quantitative framework...
February 9, 2017: Parasites & Vectors
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28176362/interdisciplinary-pharmacometrics-linking-oseltamivir-pharmacology-influenza-epidemiology-and-health-economics-to-inform-antiviral-use-in-pandemics
#14
Mohamed A Kamal, Patrick F Smith, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk, David B C Wu, Chayanin Pratoomsoot, Kenneth K C Lee, Huey Yi Chong, Richard E Nelson, Keith Nieforth, Georgina Dall, Stephen Toovey, David C M Kong, Aaron Kamauu, Carl M Kirkpatrick, Craig R Rayner
AIMS: A modular interdisciplinary platform was developed to investigate the economic impact of oseltamivir treatment by dosage regimen under simulated influenza pandemic scenarios. METHODS: The pharmacology module consisted of a pharmacokinetic distribution of oseltamivir carboxylate daily area under the concentration-time curve at steady state (simulated for 75 mg and 150 mg twice daily regimens for 5 days) and a pharmacodynamic distribution of viral shedding duration obtained from phase II influenza inoculation data...
February 8, 2017: British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28166851/a-systematic-review-of-early-modelling-studies-of-ebola-virus-disease-in-west-africa
#15
Z S Y Wong, C M Bui, A A Chughtai, C R Macintyre
Phenomenological and mechanistic models are widely used to assist resource planning for pandemics and emerging infections. We conducted a systematic review, to compare methods and outputs of published phenomenological and mechanistic modelling studies pertaining to the 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemics in four West African countries - Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea and Nigeria. We searched Pubmed, Embase and Scopus databases for relevant English language publications up to December 2015. Of the 874 articles identified, 41 met our inclusion criteria...
February 7, 2017: Epidemiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28152522/generation-and-characteristics-of-human-sertoli-cell-line-immortalized-by-overexpression-of-human-telomerase
#16
Liping Wen, Qingqing Yuan, Min Sun, Minghui Niu, Hong Wang, Hongyong Fu, Fan Zhou, Chencheng Yao, Xiaobo Wang, Zheng Li, Zuping He
Sertoli cells are required for normal spermatogenesis and they can be reprogrammed to other types of functional cells. However, the number of primary Sertoli cells is rare and human Sertoli cell line is unavailable. In this study, we have for the first time reported a stable human Sertoli cell line, namely hS1 cells, by overexpression of human telomerase. The hS1 cells expressed a number of hallmarks for human Sertoli cells, including SOX9, WT1, GDNF, SCF, BMP4, BMP6, GATA4, and VIM, and they were negative for 3β-HSD, SMA, and VASA...
February 1, 2017: Oncotarget
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28131504/childhood-cancer-risk-in-the-siblings-and-cousins-of-men-with-poor-semen-quality
#17
Ross E Anderson, Heidi A Hanson, William T Lowrance, Jeffrey Redshaw, Siam Oottamasathien, Anthony Schaeffer, Erica Johnstone, Kenneth I Aston, Douglas T Carrell, Patrick Cartwright, Ken R Smith, James M Hotaling
PURPOSE: Poor semen quality is associated with reduced somatic health and increased cancer risk. Infertility and cancer are increasingly being linked by epidemiologists and basic scientists. We sought to identify semen parameters associated with an increased childhood cancer risk in the family members of subfertile men. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in men from the SHARE (Subfertility Heath and Assisted Reproduction) study who underwent semen analysis between 1994 and 2011...
January 25, 2017: Journal of Urology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28130096/model-distinguishability-and-inference-robustness-in-mechanisms-of-cholera-transmission-and-loss-of-immunity
#18
Elizabeth C Lee, Michael R Kelly, Brad M Ochocki, Segun M Akinwumi, Karen E S Hamre, Joseph H Tien, Marisa C Eisenberg
Mathematical models of cholera and waterborne disease vary widely in their structures, in terms of transmission pathways, loss of immunity, and a range of other features. These differences can affect model dynamics, with different models potentially yielding different predictions and parameter estimates from the same data. Given the increasing use of mathematical models to inform public health decision-making, it is important to assess model distinguishability (whether models can be distinguished based on fit to data) and inference robustness (whether inferences from the model are robust to realistic variations in model structure)...
January 24, 2017: Journal of Theoretical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28122631/risk-of-travel-related-cases-of-zika-virus-infection-is-predicted-by-transmission-intensity-in-outbreak-affected-countries
#19
Nicholas H Ogden, Aamir Fazil, David Safronetz, Michael A Drebot, Justine Wallace, Erin E Rees, Kristina Decock, Victoria Ng
BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is emerging globally, currently causing outbreaks in the Caribbean, and Central and South America, and putting travellers to affected countries at risk. Model-based estimates for the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of ZIKV in affected Caribbean and Central and South American countries, obtained from 2015 to 2016 human case surveillance data, were compared by logistic regression and Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC), with the prevalence of ZIKV-positive test results in Canadians who travelled to them...
January 25, 2017: Parasites & Vectors
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28116869/investigation-of-smallholder-farmer-biosecurity-and-implications-for-sustainable-foot-and-mouth-disease-control-in-cambodia
#20
J R Young, S Suon, L Olmo, C Bun, C Hok, K Ashley, R D Bush, P A Windsor
In Cambodia, the majority of the population is rural and reliant on subsistence agriculture, with cattle raised by smallholder farmers using traditional practices, resulting in low productivity and vulnerability to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). As FMD causes deleterious impacts on rural livelihoods, known FMD risk factors were reviewed, using knowledge, attitudes and practice (KAP) surveys of smallholders (n = 240) from four regions. The study aimed to understand current biosecurity threats to smallholder livelihoods and investigate the hypothesis that smallholder farmers practising FMD risk management should be associated with higher incomes from cattle...
January 24, 2017: Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
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