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Basic reproductive number

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28240195/zika-in-rio-de-janeiro-assessment-of-basic-reproduction-number-and-comparison-with-dengue-outbreaks
#1
D A M Villela, L S Bastos, L M DE Carvalho, O G Cruz, M F C Gomes, B Durovni, M C Lemos, V Saraceni, F C Coelho, C T Codeço
Zika virus infection was declared a public health emergency of international concern in February 2016 in response to the outbreak in Brazil and its suspected link with congenital anomalies. In this study, we use notification data and disease natural history parameters to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) of Zika in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We also obtain estimates of R 0 of dengue from time series of dengue cases in the outbreaks registered in 2002 and 2012 in the city, when DENV-3 and DENV-4 serotypes, respectively, had just emerged...
February 27, 2017: Epidemiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28231324/a-framework-for-analyzing-contagion-in-assortative-banking-networks
#2
Thomas R Hurd, James P Gleeson, Sergey Melnik
We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas our framework explicitly allows for (dis)assortative edge probabilities (i.e., a tendency for small banks to link to large banks). We analyze default cascades triggered by shocking the network and find that the cascade can be understood as an explicit iterated mapping on a set of edge probabilities that converges to a fixed point...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28222682/a-statistical-method-utilizing-information-of-imported-cases-to-estimate-the-transmissibility-for-an-influenza-pandemic
#3
Ka Chun Chong, Benny Chung Ying Zee, Maggie Haitian Wang
BACKGROUND: In a new influenza pandemic, travel data such as arrival times of cases seeded by the originating country can be regarded as a combination of the epidemic size and the mobility networks of infections connecting the originating country with other regions. It can be a complete and timely source for estimating the basic reproduction number (R 0 ), a key indicator of disease transmissibility. METHOD: In this study, we developed a likelihood-based method using arrival times of infected cases in different countries to estimate R 0 for influenza pandemics...
February 21, 2017: BMC Medical Research Methodology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28202592/extinction-pathways-and-outbreak-vulnerability-in-a-stochastic-ebola-model
#4
Garrett T Nieddu, Lora Billings, James H Kaufman, Eric Forgoston, Simone Bianco
A zoonotic disease is a disease that can be passed from animals to humans. Zoonotic viruses may adapt to a human host eventually becoming endemic in humans, but before doing so punctuated outbreaks of the zoonotic virus may be observed. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) is an example of such a disease. The animal population in which the disease agent is able to reproduce in sufficient number to be able to transmit to a susceptible human host is called a reservoir. There is little work devoted to understanding stochastic population dynamics in the presence of a reservoir, specifically the phenomena of disease extinction and reintroduction...
February 2017: Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28187137/controlling-viral-outbreaks-quantitative-strategies
#5
Anna Mummert, Howard Weiss
Preparing for and responding to outbreaks of serious livestock infectious diseases are critical measures to safeguard animal health, public health, and food supply. Almost all of the current control strategies are empirical, and mass culling or "stamping out" is frequently the principal strategy for controlling epidemics. However, there are ethical, ecological, and economic reasons to consider less drastic control strategies. Here we use modeling to quantitatively study the efficacy of different control measures for viral outbreaks, where the infectiousness, transmissibility and death rate of animals commonly depends on their viral load...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28183336/assessing-the-impact-of-intervention-strategies-against-taenia-solium-cysticercosis-using-the-epicyst-transmission-model
#6
Peter Winskill, Wendy E Harrison, Michael D French, Matthew A Dixon, Bernadette Abela-Ridder, María-Gloria Basáñez
BACKGROUND: The pork tapeworm, Taenia solium, and associated human infections, taeniasis, cysticercosis and neurocysticercosis, are serious public health problems, especially in developing countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set goals for having a validated strategy for control and elimination of T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis by 2015 and interventions scaled-up in selected countries by 2020. Timely achievement of these internationally-endorsed targets requires that the relative benefits and effectiveness of potential interventions be explored rigorously within a quantitative framework...
February 9, 2017: Parasites & Vectors
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28176362/interdisciplinary-pharmacometrics-linking-oseltamivir-pharmacology-influenza-epidemiology-and-health-economics-to-inform-antiviral-use-in-pandemics
#7
M A Kamal, P F Smith, N Chaiyakunapruk, D B C Wu, C Pratoomsoot, K K C Lee, H Y Chong, R E Nelson, K Nieforth, G Dall, S Toovey, D C M Kong, A Kamauu, C M Kirkpatrick, C R Rayner
AIM: A modular interdisciplinary platform was developed to investigate the economic impact of oseltamivir treatment by dosage regimen under simulated influenza pandemic scenarios. METHODS: The pharmacology module consisted of a pharmacokinetic distribution of oseltamivir carboxylate AUC0-24h at steady state (simulated for 75 mg and 150 mg BID regimens for 5 days) and a pharmacodynamic distribution of viral shedding duration (Tshed ) obtained from phase II influenza inoculation data...
February 8, 2017: British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28166851/a-systematic-review-of-early-modelling-studies-of-ebola-virus-disease-in-west-africa
#8
Z S Y Wong, C M Bui, A A Chughtai, C R Macintyre
Phenomenological and mechanistic models are widely used to assist resource planning for pandemics and emerging infections. We conducted a systematic review, to compare methods and outputs of published phenomenological and mechanistic modelling studies pertaining to the 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemics in four West African countries - Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea and Nigeria. We searched Pubmed, Embase and Scopus databases for relevant English language publications up to December 2015. Of the 874 articles identified, 41 met our inclusion criteria...
February 7, 2017: Epidemiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28152522/generation-and-characteristics-of-human-sertoli-cell-line-immortalized-by-overexpression-of-human-telomerase
#9
Liping Wen, Qingqing Yuan, Min Sun, Minghui Niu, Hong Wang, Hongyong Fu, Fan Zhou, Chencheng Yao, Xiaobo Wang, Zheng Li, Zuping He
Sertoli cells are required for normal spermatogenesis and they can be reprogrammed to other types of functional cells. However, the number of primary Sertoli cells is rare and human Sertoli cell line is unavailable. In this study, we have for the first time reported a stable human Sertoli cell line, namely hS1 cells, by overexpression of human telomerase. The hS1 cells expressed a number of hallmarks for human Sertoli cells, including SOX9, WT1, GDNF, SCF, BMP4, BMP6, GATA4, and VIM, and they were negative for 3β-HSD, SMA, and VASA...
February 1, 2017: Oncotarget
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28131504/childhood-cancer-risk-in-the-siblings-and-cousins-of-men-with-poor-semen-quality
#10
Ross E Anderson, Heidi A Hanson, William T Lowrance, Jeffrey Redshaw, Siam Oottamasathien, Anthony Schaeffer, Erica Johnstone, Kenneth I Aston, Douglas T Carrell, Patrick Cartwright, Ken R Smith, James M Hotaling
PURPOSE: Poor semen quality is associated with reduced somatic health and increased cancer risk. Infertility and cancer are increasingly being linked by epidemiologists and basic scientists. We sought to identify semen parameters associated with an increased childhood cancer risk in the family members of subfertile men. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in men from the SHARE (Subfertility Heath and Assisted Reproduction) study who underwent semen analysis between 1994 and 2011...
January 25, 2017: Journal of Urology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28130096/model-distinguishability-and-inference-robustness-in-mechanisms-of-cholera-transmission-and-loss-of-immunity
#11
Elizabeth C Lee, Michael R Kelly, Brad M Ochocki, Segun M Akinwumi, Karen E S Hamre, Joseph H Tien, Marisa C Eisenberg
Mathematical models of cholera and waterborne disease vary widely in their structures, in terms of transmission pathways, loss of immunity, and a range of other features. These differences can affect model dynamics, with different models potentially yielding different predictions and parameter estimates from the same data. Given the increasing use of mathematical models to inform public health decision-making, it is important to assess model distinguishability (whether models can be distinguished based on fit to data) and inference robustness (whether inferences from the model are robust to realistic variations in model structure)...
January 24, 2017: Journal of Theoretical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28122631/risk-of-travel-related-cases-of-zika-virus-infection-is-predicted-by-transmission-intensity-in-outbreak-affected-countries
#12
Nicholas H Ogden, Aamir Fazil, David Safronetz, Michael A Drebot, Justine Wallace, Erin E Rees, Kristina Decock, Victoria Ng
BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is emerging globally, currently causing outbreaks in the Caribbean, and Central and South America, and putting travellers to affected countries at risk. Model-based estimates for the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of ZIKV in affected Caribbean and Central and South American countries, obtained from 2015 to 2016 human case surveillance data, were compared by logistic regression and Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC), with the prevalence of ZIKV-positive test results in Canadians who travelled to them...
January 25, 2017: Parasites & Vectors
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28116869/investigation-of-smallholder-farmer-biosecurity-and-implications-for-sustainable-foot-and-mouth-disease-control-in-cambodia
#13
J R Young, S Suon, L Olmo, C Bun, C Hok, K Ashley, R D Bush, P A Windsor
In Cambodia, the majority of the population is rural and reliant on subsistence agriculture, with cattle raised by smallholder farmers using traditional practices, resulting in low productivity and vulnerability to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). As FMD causes deleterious impacts on rural livelihoods, known FMD risk factors were reviewed, using knowledge, attitudes and practice (KAP) surveys of smallholders (n = 240) from four regions. The study aimed to understand current biosecurity threats to smallholder livelihoods and investigate the hypothesis that smallholder farmers practising FMD risk management should be associated with higher incomes from cattle...
January 24, 2017: Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28108293/a-model-incorporating-combined-rtis-and-pis-therapy-during-early-hiv-1-infection
#14
Sutimin, F Chirove, E Soewono, N Nuraini, L B Suromo
We develop a within host mathematical model of HIV-1 infection describing the effects of combined RTIs and PIs treatments on early HIV-1 infection when treatment is captured using periodic functions of pharmacokinetics type. We use an alternative of the basic reproduction number to analyze endemicity level of HIV-1 infection. Various treatment scenarios incorporating perfect and imperfect drug adherence in drug administration are explored. Our results show that pharmacokinetics treatment is a more realistic way of administering the treatment...
March 2017: Mathematical Biosciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28097419/modelling-wolbachia-infection-in-a-sex-structured-mosquito-population-carrying-west-nile-virus
#15
József Z Farkas, Stephen A Gourley, Rongsong Liu, Abdul-Aziz Yakubu
Wolbachia is possibly the most studied reproductive parasite of arthropod species. It appears to be a promising candidate for biocontrol of some mosquito borne diseases. We begin by developing a sex-structured model for a Wolbachia infected mosquito population. Our model incorporates the key effects of Wolbachia infection including cytoplasmic incompatibility and male killing. We also allow the possibility of reduced reproductive output, incomplete maternal transmission, and different mortality rates for uninfected/infected male/female individuals...
January 17, 2017: Journal of Mathematical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28095414/mosquito-disseminated-insecticide-for-citywide-vector-control-and-its-potential-to-block-arbovirus-epidemics-entomological-observations-and-modeling-results-from-amazonian-brazil
#16
Fernando Abad-Franch, Elvira Zamora-Perea, Sérgio L B Luz
BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne viruses threaten public health worldwide. When the ratio of competent vectors to susceptible humans is low enough, the virus's basic reproductive number (R0) falls below 1.0 (each case generating, on average, <1.0 additional case) and the infection fades out from the population. Conventional mosquito control tactics, however, seldom yield R0 < 1.0. A promising alternative uses mosquitoes to disseminate a potent growth-regulator larvicide, pyriproxyfen (PPF), to aquatic larval habitats; this kills most mosquito juveniles and substantially reduces adult mosquito emergence...
January 2017: PLoS Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092964/a-note-on-the-global-properties-of-an-age-structured-viral-dynamic-model-with-multiple-target-cell-populations
#17
Shaoli Wang, Jianhong Wu, Libin Rong
Some viruses can infect different classes of cells. The age of infection can affect the dynamics of infected cells and viral production. Here we develop a viral dynamic model with the age of infection and multiple target cell populations. Using the methods of semigroup and Lyapunov function, we study the global asymptotic property of the steady states of the model. The results show that when the basic reproductive number falls below 1, the infection is predicted to die out. When the basic reproductive number exceeds 1, there exists a unique infected steady state which is globally asymptotically stable...
June 1, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092961/effect-of-the-epidemiological-heterogeneity-on-the-outbreak-outcomes
#18
Alina Macacu, Dominique J Bicout
Multi-host pathogens infect and are transmitted by different kinds of hosts and, therefore, the host heterogeneity may have a great impact on the outbreak outcome of the system. This paper deals with the following problem: consider the system of interacting and mixed populations of hosts epidemiologically different, what would be the outbreak outcome for each host population composing the system as a result of mixing in comparison to the situation with zero mixing? To address this issue we have characterized the epidemic response function for a single-host population and defined a heterogeneity index measuring how host systems are epidemiologically different in terms of generation time, basic reproduction number R0 and, therefore, epidemic response function...
June 1, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092959/mixed-vaccination-strategy-for-the-control-of-tuberculosis-a-case-study-in-china
#19
Siyu Liu, Yong Li, Yingjie Bi, Qingdao Huang
This study first presents a mathematical model of TB transmission considering BCG vaccination compartment to investigate the transmission dynamics nowadays. Based on data reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the basic reproduction number is estimated approximately as R0=1.1892. To reach the new End TB goal raised by WHO in 2015, considering the health system in China, we design a mixed vaccination strategy. Theoretical analysis indicates that the infectious population asymptotically tends to zero with the new vaccination strategy which is the combination of constant vaccination and pulse vaccination...
June 1, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092230/octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane-d4
#20
(no author information available yet)
Octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4; CAS No. 556-67-2) is used as a monomer in the manufacture of polymeric materials, which are widely used in various industrial and/or medical applications, such as breast implants. D4 has a relatively low order of toxicity following acute administration via the oral, dermal, and inhalation routes of exposure and is not considered to be a dermal or eye irritant or to be a dermal sensitizer. There is no appreciable dermal absorption of D4 based on results from in vivo and in vitro studies...
January 2017: Toxicology and Industrial Health
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