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Spatio-temporal modeling

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28086893/seasonal-variation-in-geographical-access-to-maternal-health-services-in-regions-of-southern-mozambique
#1
Prestige Tatenda Makanga, Nadine Schuurman, Charfudin Sacoor, Helena Edith Boene, Faustino Vilanculo, Marianne Vidler, Laura Magee, Peter von Dadelszen, Esperança Sevene, Khátia Munguambe, Tabassum Firoz
BACKGROUND: Geographic proximity to health facilities is a known determinant of access to maternal care. Methods of quantifying geographical access to care have largely ignored the impact of precipitation and flooding. Further, travel has largely been imagined as unimodal where one transport mode is used for entire journeys to seek care. This study proposes a new approach for modeling potential spatio-temporal access by evaluating the impact of precipitation and floods on access to maternal health services using multiple transport modes, in southern Mozambique...
January 13, 2017: International Journal of Health Geographics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28080984/modelling-coffee-leaf-rust-risk-in-colombia-with-climate-reanalysis-data
#2
Daniel P Bebber, Ángela Delgado Castillo, Sarah J Gurr
Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008-2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia...
December 5, 2016: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28077161/mathematical-modelling-of-echinococcus-multilocularis-abundance-in-foxes-in-zurich-switzerland
#3
Belen Otero-Abad, Simon R Rüegg, Daniel Hegglin, Peter Deplazes, Paul R Torgerson
BACKGROUND: In Europe, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is the main definitive host of Echinococcus multilocularis, the aetiological agent of a severe disease in humans called alveolar echinococcosis. The distribution of this zoonotic parasite among the fox population is remarkably aggregated with few heavily infected animals harbouring much of the parasite burdens and being responsible for most of the environmental parasitic egg contamination. Important research questions explored were: (i) spatial differences in parasite infection pressure related to the level of urbanization; (ii) temporal differences in parasite infection pressure in relation to time of the year; (iii) is herd immunity or an age-dependent infection pressure responsible for the observed parasite abundance; (iv) assuming E...
January 11, 2017: Parasites & Vectors
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28075564/spatio-temporal-trends-of-heavy-metals-in-indo-pacific-humpback-dolphins-sousa-chinensis-from-the-western-pearl-river-estuary-china
#4
Duan Gui, Riqing Yu, Leszek Karczmarski, Yulong Ding, Haifei Zhang, Yong Sun, Mei Zhang, Yuping Wu
We assessed the spatio-temporal trends of the concentrations of 11 heavy metals (HMs) in the liver and kidney of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) from western Pearl River Estuary (PRE) during 2004-2015. The hepatic levels of Cr, As and Cu in these dolphins were among the highest reported for cetaceans globally, and the levels of Zn, Cu and Hg were sufficiently high to cause toxicological effects in some of the animals. Between same age-sex groups, dolphins from Lingdingyang were significantly more contaminated with Hg, Se and V than those from the West-four region, while the opposite was true for Cd...
January 11, 2017: Environmental Science & Technology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28074927/quaternary-climate-change-drives-allo-peripatric-speciation-and-refugial-divergence-in-the-dysosma-versipellis-pleiantha-complex-from-different-forest-types-in-china
#5
Yi-Han Wang, Hans Peter Comes, Ya-Nan Cao, Rui Guo, Yun-Rui Mao, Ying-Xiong Qiu
Subtropical China harbours the world's most diverse temperate flora, but little is known about the roles of geographical and eco-climatic factors underlying the region's exceptionally high levels of species diversity and endemism. Here we address this key question by investigating the spatio-temporal and ecological processes of divergence within the Dysosma versipellis-pleiantha species complex, endemic to subtropical China. Our cpDNA phylogeny showed that this monophyletic group of understory herbs is derived from a Late Pliocene ancestor of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP)/Southwest China...
January 11, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28072834/a-computational-model-based-on-multi-regional-calcium-imaging-represents-the-spatio-temporal-dynamics-in-a-caenorhabditis-elegans-sensory-neuron
#6
Masahiro Kuramochi, Motomichi Doi
Due to the huge number of neuronal cells in the brain and their complex circuit formation, computer simulation of neuronal activity is indispensable to understanding whole brain dynamics. Recently, various computational models have been developed based on whole-brain calcium imaging data. However, these analyses monitor only the activity of neuronal cell bodies and treat the cells as point unit. This point-neuron model is inexpensive in computational costs, but the model is unrealistically simplistic at representing intact neural activities in the brain...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28071905/heterogeneous-nucleation-of-an-n-alkane-on-tetrahedrally-coordinated-crystals
#7
Alexander Jules Bourque, C Rebecca Locker, Gregory C Rutledge
Heterogeneous nucleation refers to the propensity for phase transformations to initiate preferentially on foreign surfaces, such as vessel walls, dust particles or formulation additives. In crystallization, the form of the initial nucleus has ramifications for the crystallographic form, morphology and properties of the resulting solid. Nevertheless, the discovery and design of nucleating agents remains a matter of trial and error, due to the very small spatio-temporal scales over which formation of the critical nucleus occurs, and the extreme difficulty of examining such events empirically...
January 10, 2017: Journal of Physical Chemistry. B
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28070156/spatio-temporal-bayesian-model-selection-for-disease-mapping
#8
R Carroll, A B Lawson, C Faes, R S Kirby, M Aregay, K Watjou
Spatio-temporal analysis of small area health data often involves choosing a fixed set of predictors prior to the final model fit. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal approach of Bayesian model selection to implement model selection for certain areas of the study region as well as certain years in the study time line. Here, we examine the usefulness of this approach by way of a large-scale simulation study accompanied by a case study. Our results suggest that a special case of the model selection methods, a mixture model allowing a weight parameter to indicate if the appropriate linear predictor is spatial, spatio-temporal, or a mixture of the two, offers the best option to fitting these spatio-temporal models...
December 2016: Environmetrics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28068090/femtosecond-to-millisecond-dynamics-of-light-induced-allostery-in-the-avena-sativa-lov-domain
#9
Agnieszka A Gil, Sergey P Laptenok, Jarrod B French, James N Iuliano, Andras Lukacs, Christopher R Hall, Igor V Sazanovich, Gregory M Greetham, Adelbert Bacher, Boris Illarionov, Markus Fischer, Peter J Tonge, Stephen R Meech
The rational engineering of photosenor proteins underpins the field of optogenetics, in which light is used for spatio-temporal control of cell signalling. Optogenetic elements function by converting electronic excitation of an embedded chromophore into structural changes on the μs-sec timescale, which then modulate the activity of output domains responsible for biological signalling. Using time resolved vibrational spectroscopy coupled with isotope labelling we have mapped the structural evolution of the LOV2 domain of the flavin binding phototropin Avena sativa (AsLOV2) over 10 decades of time, reporting structural dynamics between 100 femtoseconds and one millisecond after optical ex-citation...
January 9, 2017: Journal of Physical Chemistry. B
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28047024/su-d-207a-07-the-effects-of-inter-cycle-respiratory-motion-variation-on-dose-accumulation-in-single-fraction-mr-guided-sbrt-treatment-of-renal-cell-carcinoma
#10
B Stemkens, M Glitzner, C Kontaxis, B Denis de Senneville, F Prins, Spm Crijns, L Kerkmeijer, J Lagendijk, Cat van den Berg, Rhn Tijssen
PURPOSE: To assess the dose deposition in simulated single-fraction MR-Linac treatments of renal cell carcinoma, when inter-cycle respiratory motion variation is taken into account using online MRI. METHODS: Three motion characterization methods, with increasing complexity, were compared to evaluate the effect of inter-cycle motion variation and drifts on the accumulated dose for an SBRT kidney MR-Linac treatment: 1) STATIC, in which static anatomy was assumed, 2) AVG-RESP, in which 4D-MRI phase-volumes were time-weighted, based on the respiratory phase and 3) PCA, in which 3D volumes were generated using a PCA-model, enabling the detection of inter-cycle variations and drifts...
June 2016: Medical Physics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28046073/spatio-temporal-variation-in-landscape-composition-may-speed-resistance-evolution-of-pests-to-bt-crops
#11
Anthony R Ives, Cate Paull, Andrew Hulthen, Sharon Downes, David A Andow, Ralph Haygood, Myron P Zalucki, Nancy A Schellhorn
Transgenic crops that express insecticide genes from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) are used worldwide against moth and beetle pests. Because these engineered plants can kill over 95% of susceptible larvae, they can rapidly select for resistance. Here, we use a model for a pyramid two-toxin Bt crop to explore the consequences of spatio-temporal variation in the area of Bt crop and non-Bt refuge habitat. We show that variability over time in the proportion of suitable non-Bt breeding habitat, Q, or in the total area of Bt and suitable non-Bt habitat, K, can increase the overall rate of resistance evolution by causing short-term surges of intense selection...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28045092/spatio-temporal-patterns-of-stream-methane-and-carbon-dioxide-emissions-in-a-hemiboreal-catchment-in-southwest-sweden
#12
Sivakiruthika Natchimuthu, Marcus B Wallin, Leif Klemedtsson, David Bastviken
Global stream and river greenhouse gas emissions seem to be as large as the oceanic C uptake. However, stream and river emissions are uncertain until both spatial and temporal variability have been quantified. Here we investigated in detail the stream CH4 and CO2 emissions within a hemiboreal catchment in Southwest Sweden primarily covered by coniferous forest. Gas transfer velocities (k600), CH4 and CO2 concentrations were measured with multiple methods. Our data supported modelling approaches accounting for various stream slopes, water velocities and discharge...
January 3, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28044019/resolving-the-neural-dynamics-of-visual-and-auditory-scene-processing-in-the-human-brain-a-methodological-approach
#13
REVIEW
Radoslaw Martin Cichy, Santani Teng
In natural environments, visual and auditory stimulation elicit responses across a large set of brain regions in a fraction of a second, yielding representations of the multimodal scene and its properties. The rapid and complex neural dynamics underlying visual and auditory information processing pose major challenges to human cognitive neuroscience. Brain signals measured non-invasively are inherently noisy, the format of neural representations is unknown, and transformations between representations are complex and often nonlinear...
February 19, 2017: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28039494/demyelination-patterns-in-a-mathematical-model-of-multiple-sclerosis
#14
M C Lombardo, R Barresi, E Bilotta, F Gargano, P Pantano, M Sammartino
In this paper we derive a reaction-diffusion-chemotaxis model for the dynamics of multiple sclerosis. We focus on the early inflammatory phase of the disease characterized by activated local microglia, with the recruitment of a systemically activated immune response, and by oligodendrocyte apoptosis. The model consists of three equations describing the evolution of macrophages, cytokine and apoptotic oligodendrocytes. The main driving mechanism is the chemotactic motion of macrophages in response to a chemical gradient provided by the cytokines...
December 30, 2016: Journal of Mathematical Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28034952/combined-experimental-and-computational-approaches-reveal-distinct-ph-dependence-of-pectin-methyl-esterase-inhibitors
#15
Ludivine Hocq, Fabien Sénéchal, Valérie Lefebvre, Arnaud Lehner, Jean-Marc Domon, Jean-Claude Mollet, Jérémy Dehors, Karine Pageau, Paulo Marcelo, Francois Guerineau, Katra Kolsek, Davide Mercadante, Jerome Pelloux
The fine-tuning of the degree of methylesterification of cell wall pectin is a key to regulate cell elongation and ultimately the shape of plant body. Pectin methylesterification is spatio-temporally controlled by pectin methylesterases (PMEs, 66 members in Arabidopsis). The comparably large number of proteinaceous pectin methylesterase inhibitors (PMEIs, 76 members in Arabidopsis) questions the specificity of the PME-PMEI interaction and the functional role of such abundance. To understand the difference, or redundancy, between PMEIs, we used Molecular Dynamics (MD) to predict the behaviour of two PMEIs that are co-expressed and have distinct effects on plant development: AtPMEI4 and AtPMEI9...
December 29, 2016: Plant Physiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28034803/computational-eeg-modelling-of-decision-making-under-ambiguity-reveals-spatio-temporal-dynamics-of-outcome-evaluation
#16
Lee Jollans, Robert Whelan, Louise Venables, Oliver H Turnbull, Matteo Cella, Simon Dymond
Complex human cognition, such as decision-making under ambiguity, is reflected in dynamic spatio-temporal activity in the brain. Here, we combined event-related potentials with computational modelling of the time course of decision-making and outcome evaluation during the Iowa Gambling Task. Measures of choice probability generated using the Prospect Valence Learning Delta (PVL-Delta) model, in addition to objective trial outcomes (outcome magnitude and valence), were applied as regressors in a general linear model of the EEG signal...
December 26, 2016: Behavioural Brain Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28032665/a-blueprint-for-full-collective-flood-risk-estimation-demonstration-for-european-river-flooding
#17
Francesco Serinaldi, Chris G Kilsby
Floods are a natural hazard evolving in space and time according to meteorological and river basin dynamics, so that a single flood event can affect different regions over the event duration. This physical mechanism introduces spatio-temporal relationships between flood records and losses at different locations over a given time window that should be taken into account for an effective assessment of the collective flood risk. However, since extreme floods are rare events, the limited number of historical records usually prevents a reliable frequency analysis...
December 29, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28025182/incorporating-social-contact-data-in-spatio-temporal-models-for-infectious-disease-spread
#18
Sebastian Meyer, Leonhard Held
SummaryRoutine public health surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases gives rise to weekly counts of reported cases-possibly stratified by region and/or age group. We investigate how an age-structured social contact matrix can be incorporated into a spatio-temporal endemic-epidemic model for infectious disease counts. To illustrate the approach, we analyze the spread of norovirus gastroenteritis over six age groups within the 12 districts of Berlin, 2011-2015, using contact data from the POLYMOD study...
December 26, 2016: Biostatistics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28025181/a-rigorous-statistical-framework-for-spatio-temporal-pollution-prediction-and-estimation-of-its-long-term-impact-on-health
#19
Duncan Lee, Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Alastair Rushworth, Sujit K Sahu
SummaryIn the United Kingdom, air pollution is linked to around 40000 premature deaths each year, but estimating its health effects is challenging in a spatio-temporal study. The challenges include spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data; uncertainty in the estimated pollution surface; and complex residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation in the disease data. This article develops a two-stage model that addresses these issues. The first stage is a spatio-temporal fusion model linking modeled and measured pollution data, while the second stage links these predictions to the disease data...
December 26, 2016: Biostatistics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28017360/estimation-of-daily-pm10-concentrations-in-italy-2006-2012-using-finely-resolved-satellite-data-land-use-variables-and-meteorology
#20
Massimo Stafoggia, Joel Schwartz, Chiara Badaloni, Tom Bellander, Ester Alessandrini, Giorgio Cattani, Francesca De' Donato, Alessandra Gaeta, Gianluca Leone, Alexei Lyapustin, Meytar Sorek-Hamer, Kees de Hoogh, Qian Di, Francesco Forastiere, Itai Kloog
Health effects of air pollution, especially particulate matter (PM), have been widely investigated. However, most of the studies rely on few monitors located in urban areas for short-term assessments, or land use/dispersion modelling for long-term evaluations, again mostly in cities. Recently, the availability of finely resolved satellite data provides an opportunity to estimate daily concentrations of air pollutants over wide spatio-temporal domains. Italy lacks a robust and validated high resolution spatio-temporally resolved model of particulate matter...
December 22, 2016: Environment International
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