Sung-Mok Jung, Sara L Loo, Emily Howerton, Lucie Contamin, Claire P Smith, Erica C Carcelén, Katie Yan, Samantha J Bents, John Levander, Jessi Espino, Joseph C Lemaitre, Koji Sato, Clifton D McKee, Alison L Hill, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Alessandro Vespignani, Erik T Rosenstrom, Sebastian A Rodriguez-Cartes, Julie S Ivy, Maria E Mayorga, Julie L Swann, Guido España, Sean Cavany, Sean M Moore, T Alex Perkins, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean-Claude Thill, Ajitesh Srivastava, Majd Al Aawar, Kaiming Bi, Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar, Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srini Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, Jiangzhuo Chen, Henning Mortveit, Amanda Wilson, Stefan Hoops, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Dustin Machi, Anil Vullikanti, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Harry Hochheiser, Michael C Runge, Katriona Shea, Shaun Truelove, Cécile Viboud, Justin Lessler
BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval)...
April 17, 2024: PLoS Medicine