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Spatial epidemiology

Nathan H Schumaker, Allen Brookes
Context: Simulation models are increasingly used in both theoretical and applied studies to explore system responses to natural and anthropogenic forcing functions, develop defensible predictions of future conditions, challenge simplifying assumptions that facilitated past research, and to train students in scientific concepts and technology. Researcher's increased use of simulation models has created a demand for new platforms that balance performance, utility, and flexibility. Objectives: We describe HexSim, a powerful new spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling framework that will have applications spanning diverse landscape settings, species, stressors, and disciplines (e...
February 1, 2018: Landscape Ecology
Yijun Pan, Jennifer L Short, Stephanie A Newman, Kwok H C Choy, Durgesh Tiwari, Christopher Yap, Danielle Senyschyn, William A Banks, Joseph A Nicolazzo
Epidemiological evidence suggests that people with bipolar disorder prescribed lithium exhibit a lower risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) relative to those prescribed other mood-stabilizing medicines. Lithium chloride (LiCl) reduces brain β-amyloid (Aβ) levels, and the brain clearance of Aβ is reduced in AD. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess whether the cognitive benefits of LiCl are associated with enhanced brain clearance of exogenously-administered Aβ. The brain clearance of intracerebroventricularly (icv) administered125 I-Aβ42 was assessed in male Swiss outbred mice administered daily oral NaCl or LiCl (300 mg/kg for 21 days)...
March 12, 2018: Brain, Behavior, and Immunity
Yu Zhan, Yuzhou Luo, Xunfei Deng, Kaishan Zhang, Minghua Zhang, Michael L Grieneisen, Baofeng Di
A novel model named random-forest-spatiotemporal-kriging (RF-STK) was developed to estimate the daily ambient NO2 concentrations across China during 2013-2016 based on the satellite retrievals and geographic covariates. The RF-STK model showed good prediction performance, with cross-validation R2=0.62 (RMSE=13.3 µg/m3) for daily and R2=0.73 (RMSE=6.5 µg/m3) for spatial predictions. The nationwide population-weighted multiyear average of NO2 was predicted to be 30.9±11.7 µg/m3 (mean±standard deviation), with a slowly but significantly decreasing trend at a rate of -0...
March 16, 2018: Environmental Science & Technology
Katherine S Xue, Louise H Moncla, Trevor Bedford, Jesse D Bloom
The rapid global evolution of influenza virus begins with mutations that arise de novo in individual infections, but little is known about how evolution occurs within hosts. We review recent progress in understanding how and why influenza viruses evolve within human hosts. Advances in deep sequencing make it possible to measure within-host genetic diversity in both acute and chronic influenza infections. Factors like antigenic selection, antiviral treatment, tissue specificity, spatial structure, and multiplicity of infection may affect how influenza viruses evolve within human hosts...
March 10, 2018: Trends in Microbiology
Francles Blanco-Guillot, M Lucía Castañeda-Cediel, Pablo Cruz-Hervert, Leticia Ferreyra-Reyes, Guadalupe Delgado-Sánchez, Elizabeth Ferreira-Guerrero, Rogelio Montero-Campos, Miriam Bobadilla-Del-Valle, Rosa Areli Martínez-Gamboa, Pedro Torres-González, Norma Téllez-Vazquez, Sergio Canizales-Quintero, Mercedes Yanes-Lane, Norma Mongua-Rodríguez, Alfredo Ponce-de-León, José Sifuentes-Osornio, Lourdes García-García
BACKGROUND: Genotyping and georeferencing in tuberculosis (TB) have been used to characterize the distribution of the disease and occurrence of transmission within specific groups and communities. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that diabetes mellitus (DM) and pulmonary TB may occur in spatial and molecular aggregations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of patients with pulmonary TB. The study area included 12 municipalities in the Sanitary Jurisdiction of Orizaba, Veracruz, México...
2018: PloS One
Richard Njouom, Isabelle Siffert, Gaëtan Texier, Guillaume Lachenal, Mathurin Cyrille Tejiokem, Jacques Pépin, Arnaud Fontanet
Cameroon is thought to have one of the highest prevalences of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the world (4·9% among adults). A marked cohort effect exists in several communities where ≈50% of the elderly are infected. Better assessment of HCV distribution is needed for planning treatment programs. We tested for HCV antibodies 14150 capillary blood samples collected during the 2011 Demographic and Health Survey, whose participants were representative of the Cameroonian population aged 15-49 (both genders) and 50-59 years (men only)...
March 13, 2018: Journal of Viral Hepatitis
Yasmin A Williams, Lucy S Tusting, Sophia Hocini, Patricia M Graves, Gerry F Killeen, Immo Kleinschmidt, Fredros O Okumu, Richard G A Feachem, Allison Tatarsky, Roly D Gosling
BACKGROUND: Additional vector control tools (VCTs) are needed to supplement insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) to achieve malaria elimination in many settings. To identify options for expanding the malaria vector control toolbox, we conducted a systematic review of the availability and quality of the evidence for 21 malaria VCTs, excluding ITNs and IRS. METHODS: Six electronic databases and grey literature sources were searched from January 1, 1980 to September 28, 2015 to identify systematic reviews, Phase I-IV studies, and observational studies that measured the effect of malaria VCTs on epidemiological or entomological outcomes across any age groups in all malaria-endemic settings...
2018: Advances in Parasitology
Serge W Wiltshire
An agent-based computer model that builds representative regional U.S. hog production networks was developed and employed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing trend towards increased producer specialization upon network-level resilience to catastrophic disease outbreaks. Empirical analyses suggest that the spatial distribution and connectivity patterns of contact networks often predict epidemic spreading dynamics. Our model heuristically generates realistic systems composed of hog producer, feed mill, and slaughter plant agents...
2018: PloS One
Pavel Payne, Lukas Geyrhofer, Nicholas H Barton, Jonathan P Bollback
Herd immunity, a process in which resistant individuals limit the spread of a pathogen among susceptible hosts has been extensively studied in eukaryotes. Even though bacteria have evolved multiple immune systems against their phage pathogens, herd immunity in bacteria remains unexplored. Here we experimentally demonstrate that herd immunity arises during phage epidemics in structured and unstructured Escherichia coli populations consisting of differing frequencies of susceptible and resistant cells harboring CRISPR immunity...
March 9, 2018: ELife
Thibault Catry, Zhichao Li, Emmanuel Roux, Vincent Herbreteau, Helen Gurgel, Morgan Mangeas, Frédérique Seyler, Nadine Dessay
The prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria, are important health issues in tropical areas. Malaria transmission is a multi-scale process strongly controlled by environmental factors, and the use of remote-sensing data is suitable for the characterization of its spatial and temporal dynamics. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is well-adapted to tropical areas, since it is capable of imaging independent of light and weather conditions. In this study, we highlight the contribution of SAR sensors in the assessment of the relationship between vectors, malaria and the environment in the Amazon region...
March 7, 2018: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Denitza Dimitrova Voutchkova, Birgitte Hansen, Vibeke Ernstsen, Søren Munch Kristiansen
Nationwide sampling campaign of treated drinking water of groundwater origin was designed and implemented in Denmark in 2013. The main purpose of the sampling was to obtain data on the spatial variation of iodine concentration and speciation in treated drinking water, which was supplied to the majority of the Danish population. This data was to be used in future exposure and epidemiologic studies. The water supply sector (83 companies, owning 144 waterworks throughout Denmark) was involved actively in the planning and implementation process, which reduced significantly the cost and duration of data collection...
March 7, 2018: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Elizabeth C Lee, Ali Arab, Sandra M Goldlust, Cécile Viboud, Bryan T Grenfell, Shweta Bansal
The surveillance of influenza activity is critical to early detection of epidemics and pandemics and the design of disease control strategies. Case reporting through a voluntary network of sentinel physicians is a commonly used method of passive surveillance for monitoring rates of influenza-like illness (ILI) worldwide. Despite its ubiquity, little attention has been given to the processes underlying the observation, collection, and spatial aggregation of sentinel surveillance data, and its subsequent effects on epidemiological understanding...
March 7, 2018: PLoS Computational Biology
Jason P Andras, Peter D Fields, Dieter Ebert
Knowledge of a species' population genetic structure can provide insight into fundamental ecological and evolutionary processes including gene flow, genetic drift, and adaptive evolution. Such inference is of particular importance for parasites, as an understanding of their population structure can illuminate epidemiological and coevolutionary dynamics. Here we describe the population genetic structure of the bacterium Pasteuria ramosa, a parasite that infects planktonic crustaceans of the genus Daphnia. This system has become a model for investigations of host-parasite interactions and represents an example of coevolution via negative frequency-dependent selection (a...
March 6, 2018: Molecular Ecology
Francesco Pizzitutti, William Pan, Beth Feingold, Ben Zaitchik, Carlos A Álvarez, Carlos F Mena
Though malaria control initiatives have markedly reduced malaria prevalence in recent decades, global eradication is far from actuality. Recent studies show that environmental and social heterogeneities in low-transmission settings have an increased weight in shaping malaria micro-epidemiology. New integrated and more localized control strategies should be developed and tested. Here we present a set of agent-based models designed to study the influence of local scale human movements on local scale malaria transmission in a typical Amazon environment, where malaria is transmission is low and strongly connected with seasonal riverine flooding...
2018: PloS One
Robbie Weterings, Chanin Umponstira, Hannah L Buckley
The epidemiology of vector-borne diseases is governed by a structured array of correlative and causative factors, including landscape (for example, rural versus urban), abiotic (for example, weather), and biotic (for example, food web) factors. Studies of mosquito-borne diseases rarely address these multiple factors at large spatial scales, which limits insights into how human alterations of landscapes and food webs alter mosquito abundance. We used structural equation modeling to identify the relative magnitude and direction of landscape, abiotic, and food web factors on Aedes larvae and adults across 70 sites in northern Thailand...
February 2018: Science Advances
Margarita Pons-Salort, M Steven Oberste, Mark A Pallansch, Glen R Abedi, Saki Takahashi, Bryan T Grenfell, Nicholas C Grassly
Nonpolio enteroviruses are diverse and common viruses that can circulate year-round but tend to peak in summer. Although most infections are asymptomatic, they can result in a wide range of neurological and other diseases. Many serotypes circulate every year, and different serotypes predominate in different years, but the drivers of their geographical and temporal dynamics are not understood. We use national enterovirus surveillance data collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 1983-2013, as well as demographic and climatic data for the same period, to study the patterns and drivers of the seasonality of these infections...
March 5, 2018: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
D B de Castro, M Sadahiro, R C Pinto, B C de Albuquerque, J U Braga
SETTING: Brazil ranks eighteenth worldwide in annual numbers of new tuberculosis (TB) cases. The municipality of Manaus, Amazonas State, has the highest incidence of TB in Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the quality of TB epidemiological surveillance, and to describe the spatial distribution pattern of TB incidence in Manaus and its social determinants. DESIGN: An ecological study was performed based on secondary data from TB epidemiological surveillance reports...
February 1, 2018: International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
J Mullins, M N Lobato, K Bemis, L Sosa
SETTING: In the United States, tuberculosis (TB) control is increasingly focusing on the identification of persons with latent tuberculous infection (LTBI). OBJECTIVE: To characterize the local epidemiology of LTBI in Connecticut, USA. METHODS: We used spatial analyses 1) to identify census tract-level clusters of reported LTBI and TB disease in Connecticut, 2) to compare persons and populations in clusters with those not in clusters, and 3) to compare persons with LTBI to those with TB disease...
February 1, 2018: International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
Chiara Badaloni, Giorgio Cattani, Francesca De' Donato, Alessandra Gaeta, Gianluca Leone, Paola Michelozzi, Marina Davoli, Francesco Forastiere, Massimo Stafoggia
OBJECTIVES: to define a national geographic domain, with high spatial (1 km²) and temporal (daily) resolution, and to build a list of georeferenced environmental and temporal indicators useful for environmental epidemiology applications at national level. DESIGN: geographic study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: study domain: Italian territory divided into 307,635 1-km² grid cells; study period: 2006-2012, divided into 2,557 daily time windows...
January 2018: Epidemiologia e Prevenzione
E Jurado-Tarifa, J M Daly, A Pérez-Écija, M Barba-Recreo, F J Mendoza, A M Al-Shuwaikh, I García-Bocanegra
Equine influenza is a highly contagious respiratory disease considered the most important respiratory disease in equids. Although influenza A virus (IAV) has caused outbreaks in equids worldwide, surveillance in these species in Spain has not been conducted. A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the individual and herd prevalence of antibodies against H3N8 and H7N7 IAV in equids in Andalusia (southern Spain). Antibodies againsts IAV were measured by the single radial haemolysis assay. A spatial scan statistical analysis was carried out using a Bernoulli model...
March 1, 2018: Preventive Veterinary Medicine
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