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Risk Prediction model

Kaitlin C Maguire, Douglas J Shinneman, Kevin M Potter, Valerie D Hipkins
Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America...
March 14, 2018: Systematic Biology
Michael Z L Zhu, Andrew Martin, Andrew D Cochrane, Julian A Smith, Amanda G Thrift, Gerard K Harrop, Jennifer P Ngo, Roger G Evans
Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common after cardiac surgery and profoundly affects postoperative mortality and morbidity. There are no validated methods to assess risk of AKI intraoperatively. Methods: We determined the association between postoperative AKI and intraoperative urinary oxygen tension (PO2), measured via a fiber optic probe in the tip of the urinary catheter, in 65 patients undergoing high-risk cardiac surgery requiring cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB)...
March 14, 2018: Nephrology, Dialysis, Transplantation
Uzochukwu C Ugochukwu, Alfred Ochonogor, Chika M Jidere, Chizoba Agu, Frida Nkoloagu, John Ewoh, Virginia U Okwu-Delunzu
In this study, the human and livestock (cattle) health risks of exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a wetland of Obuaku, Abia State Nigeria contaminated by hydrocarbon spill due to incidents of hydrocarbon theft and pipeline vandalization were assessed. Gas chromatography-flame ionization detector and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry were employed in analyzing the TPH and PAHs respectively. The contaminated soil was delineated into sub-locations AOC-1, AOC-2, AOC-3, AOC-4, AOC-5 and AOC-6 to reflect the discrete patches (areas) of the contaminated site and for effective planning of remedial actions...
March 13, 2018: Environment International
Nicolas Hoertel, Hadi Faiz, Guillaume Airagnes, Carlos Blanco, Rachel Pascal De Raykeer, Silvia Franco, Géraldine Ducoutumany, Cédric Lemogne, Frédéric Limosin
BACKGROUND: Heavy drinkers are at high risk for suicide attempt and suicide. Multiple factors, when examined in isolation, have been implicated in the risk of suicide attempt in this population. In this report, we present a comprehensive model of the 3-year risk of suicide attempt in heavy drinkers using a longitudinal nationally representative study, the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC; wave 1, 2001-2002; wave 2, 2004-2005). METHODS: We used structural equation modeling to simultaneously examine effects of four broad groups of clinical factors previously identified as potential predictors of attempted suicides: 1) alcohol use disorder severity, 2) severity of comorbidity, 3) sociodemographic characteristics and 4) help-seeking for alcohol problems...
March 7, 2018: Drug and Alcohol Dependence
G Satta, N Mascia, T Serra, A Salis, L Saba, S Sanna, M G Zucca, E Angelucci, A Gabbas, F Culurgioni, P Pili, E Mura, M Cappai, M G Ennas, P Cocco
We investigated the association between environmental exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) and risk of lymphoma subtypes in a case-control study comprised of 322 patients and 444 individuals serving as controls in Sardinia, Italy in 1998-2004. Questionnaire information included the self-reported distance of the three longest held residential addresses from fixed radio-television transmitters and mobile phone base stations. We georeferenced the residential addresses of all study subjects and obtained the spatial coordinates of mobile phone base stations...
March 16, 2018: Radiation Research
Bismil Ali Ali, Rolf Lefering, Mariano Fortún Moral, Tomás Belzunegui Otano
OBJECTIVES: To validate the Mortality Prediction Model of Navarre (MPMN) to predict death after severe trauma and compare it to the Revised Injury Severity Classification Score II (RISCII). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of a cohort of severe trauma patients (New Injury Severity Score >15) who were attended by emergency services in the Spanish autonomous community of Navarre between 2013 and 2015. The outcome variable was 30-day all-cause mortality...
2018: Emergencias: Revista de la Sociedad Española de Medicina de Emergencias
Michael Karsy, Jian Guan, L Eric Huang
OBJECTIVE Gliomas are one of the most common types of primary brain tumors. Recent studies have supported the importance of key genetic alterations, including isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutations and 1p19q codeletion, in glioma prognosis. Mutant IDH produces 2-hydroxyglutarate from α-ketoglutarate, a key metabolite of the Krebs cycle. The mitochondrial pyruvate carrier (MPC) is composed of MPC1 and MPC2 subunits and is functionally essential for the Krebs cycle. The authors sought to explore the impact of MPC1 and MPC2 expression on patient prognosis...
March 16, 2018: Journal of Neurosurgery
Sarah R Horn, Leslie E Roos, Kathryn G Beauchamp, Jessica E Flannery, Philip A Fisher
Prior research has identified the role of childhood maltreatment in externalizing problems and executive function (EF) deficits, but minimal work has been done to characterize the effects of co-occurring maltreatment types, defined as polyvictimization. Here, we sought to characterize the association between polyvictimization and externalizing problems in a sample of foster care children aged 3-4 years (N = 84) and examine how EF may mediate or moderate that relationship. A moderation model was supported in that only polyvictimized children with EF scores 1...
May 2018: Journal of Trauma & Dissociation
Maj Hansen, Philip Hyland, Cherie Armour, Tonny E Andersen
Numerous studies investigating dissociative posttraumatic stress disorder (D-PTSD) have emerged. However, there is a lack of studies investigating D-PTSD following a wider range of traumatic exposure. Thus, the present study investigates D-PTSD using latent class analysis (LCA) in sub-acute patients of whiplash and associated risk factors. The results of LCA showed a three-class solution primarily distributed according to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptom severity and thus no indication of D-PTSD...
March 16, 2018: Journal of Trauma & Dissociation
Alberto Pilotto, Simone Dini, Nicola Veronese, Julia Daragjati, Manuela Miolo, Monica M Mion, Andrea Fontana, Mario Lo Storto, Martina Zaninotto, Giada Bragato, Alberto Cella, Paolo Carraro, Filomena Addante, Massimiliano Copetti, Mario Plebani
BACKGROUND: To evaluate the prognostic accuracy of pro-ADM (adrenomedullin) in comparison with and in addition to the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), a validated predictive tool for mortality derived from a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), to predict one-month mortality risk in older patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). METHODS: All patients aged 65 years and older, consecutively admitted to an acute geriatric ward with a diagnosis of CAP from February to July 2012...
March 15, 2018: Panminerva Medica
Barbara Wiśniowska, Sebastian Polak
The current study is an example of drug-disease interaction modeling where a drug induces a condition which can affect the pharmacodynamics of other concomitantly taken drugs. The electrophysiological effects of hypokaliemia and heart rate changes induced by the antiasthmatic drugs were simulated with the use of the cardiac safety simulator. Biophysically detailed model of the human cardiac physiology-ten Tusscher ventricular cardiomyocyte cell model-was employed to generate pseudo-ECG signals and QTc intervals for 44 patients from four clinical studies...
March 15, 2018: Journal of Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics
Jamil Manji, Al-Rahim R Habib, Ameen A Amanian, Saad Alsaleh, Andrew Thamboo, Amin R Javer
PURPOSE: Synechiae formation in the middle meatus is the most common complication of functional endoscopic sinus surgery (FESS). Our objectives were to determine the incidence of synechiae occurring in a cohort of patients that have undergone FESS and identify characteristics associated with the development of synechiae postoperatively. METHODS: A retrospective chart review was conducted of CRS patients, with or without nasal polyposis, that had undergone bilateral FESS in the past...
March 15, 2018: European Archives of Oto-rhino-laryngology
Sonam Puri, Kelly A Hyland, Kristine Crowe Weiss, Gillian C Bell, Jhanelle E Gray, Richard Kim, Hui-Yi Lin, Aasha I Hoogland, Brian D Gonzalez, Ashley M Nelson, Anita Y Kinney, Stacy M Fischer, Daneng Li, Paul B Jacobsen, Howard L McLeod, Heather S L Jim
PURPOSE: Chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting (CINV) is common among cancer patients. Early identification of patients at risk for CINV may help to personalize anti-emetic therapies. To date, few studies have examined the combined contributions of patient-reported and genetic risk factors to CINV. The goal of this study was to evaluate these risk factors. METHODS: Prior to their first chemotherapy infusion, participants completed demographic and risk factor questionnaires and provided a blood sample to measure genetic variants in ABCB1 (rs1045642) and HTR3B (rs45460698) as well as CYP2D6 activity score...
March 15, 2018: Supportive Care in Cancer: Official Journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer
Mika Hilvo, Tuire Salonurmi, Aki S Havulinna, Dimple Kauhanen, Eva Ringdal Pedersen, Grethe S Tell, Klaus Meyer, Anna-Maria Teeriniemi, Tiina Laatikainen, Pekka Jousilahti, Markku J Savolainen, Ottar Nygård, Veikko Salomaa, Reijo Laaksonen
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Ceramide lipids have a role in the development of insulin resistance, diabetes and risk of cardiovascular disease. Here we investigated four ceramides and their ratios to find the best predictors of incident diabetes. METHODS: A validated mass-spectrometric method was applied to measure Cer(d18:1/16:0), Cer(d18:1/18:0), Cer(d18:1/24:0) and Cer(d18:1/24:1) from serum or plasma samples. These ceramides were analysed in a population-based risk factor study (FINRISK 2002, n = 8045), in a cohort of participants undergoing elective coronary angiography for suspected stable angina pectoris (Western Norway Coronary Angiography Cohort [WECAC], n = 3344) and in an intervention trial investigating improved methods of lifestyle modification for individuals at high risk of the metabolic syndrome (Prevent Metabolic Syndrome [PrevMetSyn], n = 371)...
March 15, 2018: Diabetologia
Augustine Tee, Wai Leng Chow, Colin Burke, Guruprasad Basavarajaiah
INTRODUCTION: In light of the growing evidence base for better clinical results with the use of the dual bronchodilator indacaterol/glycopyrronium (IND/GLY) over inhaled corticosteroid-containing salmeterol/fluticasone combination (SFC), this study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of IND/GLY over SFC in patients with moderate-to-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who are at low risk of exacerbations in the Singapore healthcare setting. METHODS: A previously published patient-level simulation model was adapted for use in Singapore by applying local unit costs...
March 16, 2018: Singapore Medical Journal
Andras P Durko, Ruben L Osnabrugge, Nicolas M Van Mieghem, Milan Milojevic, Darren Mylotte, Vuyisile T Nkomo, A Pieter Kappetein
Aims: The number of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) procedures is rapidly increasing. This has a major impact on health care resource planning. However, the annual numbers of TAVI candidates per country are unknown. The aim of this study was to estimate current and future number of annual TAVI candidates in 27 European countries, the USA and Canada. Methods and results: Systematic literature searches and meta-analyses were performed on aortic stenosis (AS) epidemiology and decision-making in severe symptomatic AS...
March 12, 2018: European Heart Journal
Ayesha Fawad, Andreas Bergmann, Joachim Struck, Peter M Nilsson, Marju Orho-Melander, Olle Melander
Context: The gut hormone neurotensin promotes fat absorption, diet-induced weight gain and liver steatosis. Its stable precursor-hormone fragment "proneurotensin" predicts cardiometabolic disease in middle-aged populations, especially in women. Objective: To test if proneurotensin predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes development in an elderly population and whether there are gender differences in this respect. Design, Setting and Participants: Fasting proneurotensin was measured in plasma from 4804 participants (mean age 69±6 years) of the Malmö Preventive Project (MPP) and subjects were followed up for development of CVD and diabetes during 5...
March 13, 2018: Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism
Natalia A Trayanova, Patrick M Boyle, Plamen P Nikolov
The goal of this article is to review advances in computational modeling of the heart, with a focus on recent non-invasive clinical imaging- and simulation-based strategies aimed at improving the diagnosis and treatment of patients with arrhythmias and structural heart disease. Following a brief overview of the field of computational cardiology, we present recent applications of the personalized virtual-heart approach in predicting the optimal targets for infarct-related ventricular tachycardia and atrial fibrillation ablation, and in determining risk of sudden cardiac death in myocardial infarction patients...
March 2018: Current Opinion in Biomedical Engineering
Danfeng Zhang, Jigang Chen, Qiang Xue, Bingying Du, Ya Li, Tao Chen, Ying Jiang, Lijun Hou, Yan Dong, Junyu Wang
Background and Purpose: Hematoma expansion (HE) is related to clinical deterioration after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and noncontrast computed tomography (NCCT) signs are indicated as predictors for HE but with inconsistent conclusions. We aim to clarify the correlations of NCCT heterogeneity signs with HE by meta-analysis of related studies. Methods: PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane library were searched for eligible studies exploring the relationships between NCCT heterogeneity signs (hypodensity, mixed density, swirl sign, blend sign, and black hole sign) and HE...
2018: BioMed Research International
Mariann H Bentsen, Trond Markestad, Thomas Halvorsen
Early prediction of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) may facilitate tailored management for neonates at risk. We investigated whether easily accessible flow data from a mechanical ventilator can predict BPD in neonates born extremely premature (EP). In a prospective population-based study of EP-born neonates, flow data were obtained from the ventilator during the first 48 h of life. Data were logged for >10 min and then converted to flow-volume loops using custom-made software. Tidal breathing parameters were calculated and averaged from ≥200 breath cycles, and data were compared between those who later developed moderate/severe and no/mild BPD...
January 2018: ERJ Open Research
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