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Early warning systems

Dan E Angelescu, Vaizanne Huynh, Andreas Hausot, Gizem Yalkin, Victor Plet, Jean-Marie Mouchel, Sabrina Guérin-Rechdaoui, Sam Azimi, Vincent Rocher
AIMS: The purpose of this work is to present and evaluate the performance of a novel Automatic Lab-in-vial E. coli Remote Tracking (ALERT) technology based on an automated real-time defined substrate approach, and implemented in both portable and in-situ instruments. METHODS AND RESULTS: We present the fresh-water calibration procedure, and assess performance using side-by-side comparison with most-probable-number (MPN) approaches in terms of accuracy, reproducibility and capability to correctly generate early-warning alerts...
August 12, 2018: Journal of Applied Microbiology
Madeleine C Thomson, Ángel G Muñoz, Remi Cousin, Joy Shumake-Guillemot
BACKGROUND: Climate-based disease forecasting has been proposed as a potential tool in climate change adaptation for the health sector. Here we explore the relevance of climate data, drivers and predictions for vector-borne disease control efforts in Africa. METHODS: Using data from a number of sources we explore rainfall and temperature across the African continent, from seasonality to variability at annual, multi-decadal and timescales consistent with climate change...
August 10, 2018: Infectious Diseases of Poverty
Vijay K Chattu, Raman Kumar, Soosanna Kumary, Fnu Kajal, Joseph K David
Nipah virus (NiV) encephalitis first reported in "Sungai Nipah" in Malaysia in 1999 has emerged as a global public health threat in the Southeast Asia region. From 1998 to 2018, more than 630 cases of NiV human infections were reported. NiV is transmitted by zoonotic (from bats to humans, or from bats to pigs, and then to humans) as well as human-to-human routes. Deforestation and urbanization of some areas have contributed to greater overlap between human and bat habitats resulting in NiV outbreaks...
March 2018: Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care
Joost Dj Plate, Linda M Peelen, Luke Ph Leenen, Falco Hietbrink
AIM: To assess the performance and clinical relevance of the Early Warning Scoring (EWS) system at the Intermediate Care Unit (IMCU). METHODS: This cohort study used all the VitalPAC EWS (ViEWS) scores collected during each nursing shift from 2014 through 2016 at the mixed surgical IMCU of an academic teaching hospital. Clinical deterioration defined as transfer to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) or mortality within 24 h was the primary outcome of interest. RESULTS: A total of 9113 aggregated ViEWS scores were obtained from 2113 admissions...
August 4, 2018: World Journal of Critical Care Medicine
Mei-Hua Wang, Han-Kun Chen, Min-Huei Hsu, Hui-Chi Wang, Yu-Ting Yeh
BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of several serious infectious diseases have occurred in recent years. In response, to mitigate public health risks, countries worldwide have dedicated efforts to establish an information system for effective disease monitoring, risk assessment, and early warning management for international disease outbreaks. A cloud computing framework can effectively provide the required hardware resources and information access and exchange to conveniently connect information related to infectious diseases and develop a cross-system surveillance and control system for infectious diseases...
August 8, 2018: Journal of Medical Internet Research
Emmanuel Fru Nsutebu, Ana Belén Ibarz-Pavón, Elizabeth Kanwar, Nancy Prospero, Neil French, Conor McGrath
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of a collaborative programme for the early recognition and management of patients admitted with sepsis in the northwest of England. SETTING: 14 hospitals in the northwest of England. INTERVENTION: A quality improvement programme (Advancing Quality (AQ) Sepsis) that promoted a sepsis care bundle including time-based recording of early warning scores, documenting systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria and suspected source of infection, taking of blood cultures, measuring serum lactate levels, administration of intravenous antibiotics, administration of oxygen, fluid resuscitation, measurement of fluid balance and senior review...
August 7, 2018: Postgraduate Medical Journal
Elena Arsevska, Sarah Valentin, Julien Rabatel, Jocelyn de Goër de Hervé, Sylvain Falala, Renaud Lancelot, Mathieu Roche
Since 2013, the French Animal Health Epidemic Intelligence System (in French: Veille Sanitaire Internationale, VSI) has been monitoring signals of the emergence of new and exotic animal infectious diseases worldwide. Once detected, the VSI team verifies the signals and issues early warning reports to French animal health authorities when potential threats to France are detected. To improve detection of signals from online news sources, we designed the Platform for Automated extraction of Disease Information from the web (PADI-web)...
2018: PloS One
Eric Shelov, Naveen Muthu, Heather Wolfe, Danielle Traynor, Nancy Craig, Christopher Bonafide, Vinay Nadkarni, Daniela Davis, Maya Dewan
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE:  Pediatric in-hospital cardiac arrest most commonly occurs in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and is frequently preceded by early warning signs of clinical deterioration. In this study, we describe the implementation and evaluation of criteria to identify high-risk patients from a paper-based checklist into a clinical decision support (CDS) tool in the electronic health record (EHR). MATERIALS AND METHODS:  The validated paper-based tool was first adapted by PICU clinicians and clinical informaticians and then integrated into clinical workflow following best practices for CDS design...
July 2018: Applied Clinical Informatics
Won Gun Kwack, Dong Seon Lee, Hyunju Min, Yun Young Choi, Miae Yun, Youlim Kim, Sang Hoon Lee, Inae Song, Jong Sun Park, Young-Jae Cho, You Hwan Jo, Ho Il Yoon, Jae Ho Lee, Choon-Taek Lee, Yeon Joo Lee
Efforts to detect patient deterioration early have led to the development of early warning score (EWS) models. However, these models are disease-nonspecific and have shown variable accuracy in predicting unexpected critical events. Here, we propose a simpler and more accurate method for predicting risk in respiratory ward patients. This retrospective study analyzed adult patients who were admitted to the respiratory ward and detected using the rapid response system (RRS). Study outcomes included transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) within 24 hours after RRS activation and in-hospital mortality...
2018: PloS One
Sarah Forster, Gemma Housley, Tricia M McKeever, Dominick E Shaw
OBJECTIVE: Early Warning Scores (EWSs) are used to monitor patients for signs of imminent deterioration. Although used in respiratory disease, EWSs have not been well studied in this population, despite the underlying cardiopulmonary pathophysiology often present. We examined the performance of two scoring systems in patients with respiratory disease. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis of vital signs observations of all patients admitted to a respiratory unit over a 2-year period...
July 30, 2018: BMJ Open
Guoqi Yu, Yonghong Li, Jiansheng Cai, Dongmei Yu, Jiexia Tang, Wenwen Zhai, Yi Wei, Shiyi Chen, Quanhui Chen, Jian Qin
BACKGROUND: Previous studies have always focused on the impact of various meteorological factors on Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD). However, only few studies have investigated the simultaneous effects of climate and air pollution on HFMD incidence. METHODS: Daily HFMD counts among children aged 0-14 years in Guilin city were collected from 2014 to 2016. Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to assess the effects of extreme meteorological factors and air pollution indicators, as well as the effects of different lag days on HFMD incidence...
July 24, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Aidan Findlater, Isaac I Bogoch
Greater human mobility, largely driven by air travel, is leading to an increase in the frequency and reach of infectious disease epidemics. Air travel can rapidly connect any two points on the planet, and this has the potential to cause swift and broad dissemination of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases that may pose a threat to global health security. Investments to strengthen surveillance, build robust early-warning systems, improve predictive models, and coordinate public health responses may help to prevent, detect, and respond to new infectious disease epidemics...
July 23, 2018: Trends in Parasitology
Shudong Wang, Xiaoyuan Zhang, Taixia Wu, Yingying Yang
Urbanization is an important force driving the development of the social, economic, and ecological environments in urban China. As the capital of China, Beijing has experienced a shift in the development process from emphasizing economic development to emphasizing ecological livability in recent decades. During this period, the Olympic Games, real estate development, and environmentally friendly construction policies were major events that affected Beijing's urban ecosystem and its safety. Based on the Pressure-State-Response (P-S-R) framework model, this paper establishes an indicator system for assessing the ecological security of Beijing from 1995 to 2015...
July 23, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Emma Thomas-Jones, Amy Lloyd, Damian Roland, Gerri Sefton, Lyvonne Tume, Kerry Hood, Chao Huang, Dawn Edwards, Alison Oliver, Richard Skone, David Lacy, Ian Sinha, Jenny Preston, Brendan Mason, Nina Jacob, Robert Trubey, Heather Strange, Yvonne Moriarty, Aimee Grant, Davina Allen, Colin Powell
BACKGROUND: In hospital, staff need to routinely monitor patients to identify those who are seriously ill, so that they receive timely treatment to improve their condition. A Paediatric Early Warning System is a multi-faceted socio-technical system to detect deterioration in children, which may or may not include a track and trigger tool. It functions to monitor, detect and prompt an urgent response to signs of deterioration, with the aim of preventing morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study is to develop an evidence-based improvement programme to optimise the effectiveness of Paediatric Early Warning Systems in different inpatient contexts, and to evaluate the feasibility and potential effectiveness of the programme in predicting deterioration and triggering timely interventions...
July 25, 2018: BMC Pediatrics
Nanlesta A Pilgrim, Jerry Okal, James Matheka, Irene Mukui, Samuel Kalibala
BACKGROUND: Pediatric non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), loss to follow-up, and HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) are challenges to achieving UNAIDS' targets of 90% of those diagnosed HIV-positive receiving treatment, and 90% of those receiving treatment achieving viral suppression. In Kenya, the pediatric population represents 8% of total HIV infections and pediatric virological failure is estimated at 33%. The monitoring of early warning indicators (EWIs) for HIVDR can help to identify and correct gaps in ART program functioning to improve HIV care and treatment outcomes...
July 25, 2018: BMC Pediatrics
Tran Thi Tuyet-Hanh, Nguyen Nhat Cam, Le Thi Thanh Huong, Tran Khanh Long, Tran Mai Kien, Dang Thi Kim Hanh, Nguyen Huu Quyen, Tran Nu Quy Linh, Joacim Rocklöv, Mikkel Quam, Hoang Van Minh
Dengue fever/dengue hemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) has been an important public health challenge in Viet Nam and worldwide. This study was implemented in 2016-2017 using retrospective secondary data to explore associations between monthly DF/DHF cases and climate variables during 2008 to 2015. There were 48 175 DF/DHF cases reported, and the highest number of cases occurred in November. There were significant correlations between monthly DF/DHF cases with monthly mean of evaporation ( r = 0.236, P < .05), monthly relative humidity ( r = -0...
July 25, 2018: Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health
Raziye Gizem Yüksel Gök, Alper Gök, Mehtap Bulut
INTRODUCTION: In this study our purpose is to examine the effectiveness and reliability of MEWS (Modified Early Warning Score), REMS (Rapid Emergency Medicine Score) and WPS (Worthing Physiological Scoring System) scoring systems for prediction of the prognosis and mortality rate of critically ill patients scheduled to be admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) among emergency department (ED) patients. METHODS: This single-centered retrospective study was performed on medical, surgical and trauma patients referred to the ED and admitted to ICU of University Hospital between 23 July 2013 and 26 November 2015...
July 21, 2018: International Emergency Nursing
John Kellett, Martin Otyek Opio
BACKGROUND: low QRS voltage has been shown to be associated with increased mortality in the general population and in a small pilot study the combined QRS voltage of ECG leads I and II was found to be associated with in-hospital mortality AIM: confirm that low QRS voltage predicts the in-hospital mortality of acutely ill patients, and compare QRS voltage with other predictors of mortality that can be easily, quickly and cheaply obtained at the bedside METHODS: prospective observational study of vital signs, QRS voltage and simple tools used to assess mental, functional and nutritional status at the bedside in unselected acutely ill patients admitted to a resource-poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa...
July 18, 2018: Clinical Cardiology
Radu Postelnicu, Stephen M Pastores, David H Chong, Laura Evans
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
July 7, 2018: Journal of Critical Care
Deborah L Jones, Violeta J Rodriguez, Stefani A Butts, Kris Arheart, Robert Zulu, Ndashi Chitalu, Stephen M Weiss
Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) uptake in Africa could prevent 3.4 million HIV infections across a 10 year span. In Zambia, however, ~80 per cent of uncircumcised men report no interest in undergoing VMMC. The Spear & Shield (S&S) intervention has been shown to be more effective than control or observation of only conditions at increasing the number of VMMCs. This study identified predictors of S&S implementation success or failure to create an "early warning" system to enable remedial action during implementation...
July 13, 2018: Translational Behavioral Medicine
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