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Predicting risk of chronic disease

Süleyha Hilmioğlu-Polat, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Macit Ilkit, Mohammad Taghi Hedayati, Ramazan Inci, Emel Tumbay, David W Denning
The current number of fungal infections occurring each year in Turkey is unknown. We estimated the burden of serious human fungal diseases based on the population at risk, existing epidemiological data from 1920 to 2017, and modelling previously described by the LIFE program Among the population of Turkey (80.8 million in 2017), approximately 1,785,811 (2.21%) people are estimated to suffer from a serious fungal infection each year. The model used predicts high prevalences of allergic fungal rhinosinusitis episodes (312,994 cases) (392/100,000), of severe asthma with fungal sensitization (42,989 cases) (53...
August 14, 2018: Mycoses
Ming Song, Ying Yang, Jianghong He, Zhengyi Yang, Shan Yu, Qiuyou Xie, Xiaoyu Xia, Yuanyuan Dang, Qiang Zhang, Xinhuai Wu, Yue Cui, Bing Hou, Ronghao Yu, Ruxiang Xu, Tianzi Jiang
Disorders of consciousness are a heterogeneous mixture of different diseases or injuries. Although some indicators and models have been proposed for prognostication, any single method when used alone carries a high risk of false prediction. This study aimed to develop a multidomain prognostic model that combines resting state functional MRI with three clinical characteristics to predict one year outcomes at the single-subject level. The model discriminated between patients who would later recover consciousness and those who would not with an accuracy of around 88% on three datasets from two medical centers...
August 14, 2018: ELife
Yan Zhang, Guanghao Qi, Ju-Hyun Park, Nilanjan Chatterjee
We developed a likelihood-based approach for analyzing summary-level statistics and external linkage disequilibrium information to estimate effect-size distributions of common variants, characterized by the proportion of underlying susceptibility SNPs and a flexible normal-mixture model for their effects. Analysis of results available across 32 genome-wide association studies showed that, while all traits are highly polygenic, there is wide diversity in the degree and nature of polygenicity. Psychiatric diseases and traits related to mental health and ability appear to be most polygenic, involving a continuum of small effects...
August 13, 2018: Nature Genetics
Doron Aronson, Varda Shalev, Rachel Katz, Gabriel Chodick, Diab Mutlak
PURPOSE:  We used a large real-world data from community settings to develop and validate a 10-year risk score for new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and calculate its net benefit performance. METHODS:  Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate effects of risk factors in the derivation cohort ( n  = 96,778) and to derive a risk equation. Measures of calibration and discrimination were calculated in the validation cohort ( n  = 48,404)...
August 13, 2018: Thrombosis and Haemostasis
Michael S Koeckert, Eugene A Grossi, Patrick F Vining, Ramsey Abdallah, Mathew R Williams, Gary Kalkut, Didier F Loulmet, Elias A Zias, Michael Querijero, Aubrey C Galloway
OBJECTIVE: Medicare's Bundle Payment for Care Improvement(BPCI) Model 2 groups reimbursement for valve surgery into 90-day episodes of care(EOC) which include operative costs, inpatient stay, physician fees, post-acute care, and readmissions up to 90 days post-procedure. We analyzed our BPCI patients' 90-day outcomes to understand the late financial risks and implications of the bundle payment system for valve patients. METHODS: All BPCI valve patients from 10/2013 (start of risk-sharing phase) through 12/2015 were included...
August 10, 2018: Seminars in Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
M Baré, L Mora, N Torà, M J Gil, I Barrio, P Collera, D Suárez, M Redondo, A Escobar, N Fernández de Larrea, J M Quintana
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to assess factors associated with outcomes after surgery for colorectal cancer and to design and internally validate a simple score for predicting perioperative mortality. METHODS: Patients undergoing surgery for primary invasive colorectal cancer in 22 centres in Spain between June 2010 and December 2012 were included. Clinical variables up to 30 days were collected prospectively. Multiple logistic regression techniques were applied and a risk score was developed...
August 13, 2018: British Journal of Surgery
Manreet K Kanwar, Lisa C Lohmueller, Robert L Kormos, Jeffrey J Teuteberg, Joseph G Rogers, JoAnn Lindenfeld, Stephen H Bailey, Colleen K McIlvennan, Raymond Benza, Srinivas Murali, James Antaki
OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the use of a Bayesian statistical models to predict survival at various time points in patients undergoing left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation. BACKGROUND: LVADs are being increasingly used in patients with end-stage heart failure. Appropriate patient selection continues to be key in optimizing post-LVAD outcomes. METHODS: Data used for this study were derived from 10,277 adult patients from the INTERMACS (Inter-Agency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support) who had a primary LVAD implanted between January 2012 and December 2015...
August 7, 2018: JACC. Heart Failure
Chun-Fu Lai, Yen-Ting Chen, Jian Gu, Jeanne M Nerbonne, Chin-Hsien Lin, Kai-Chien Yang
BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular (CV) diseases are major causes of mortality in uremic patients. Conventional risk factors fail to identify uremic patients with increased propensity for adverse CV outcomes. We aimed to test the hypothesis that circulating long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) could be a prognostic marker to predict adverse CV outcomes in uremic patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Plasma lncRNAs were profiled in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD, n = 28) or chronic kidney disease (CKD, n = 8) and in healthy (n = 12) subjects by RNA sequencing...
August 7, 2018: International Journal of Cardiology
Thomas R Vetter, Patrick Schober, Edward J Mascha
To use a diagnostic test effectively and consistently in their practice, clinicians need to know how well the test distinguishes between those patients who have the suspected acute or chronic disease and those patients who do not. Clinicians are equally interested and usually more concerned whether, based on the results of a screening test, a given patient actually: (1) does or does not have the suspected disease; or (2) will or will not subsequently experience the adverse event or outcome. Medical tests that are performed to screen for a risk factor, diagnose a disease, or to estimate a patient's prognosis are frequently a key component of a clinical research study...
August 9, 2018: Anesthesia and Analgesia
A V Hauger, A Bergland, K Holvik, A Ståhle, N Emaus, B H Strand
Low bone mineral density (BMD) gives an increased risk of fractures, which can lead to premature death. Can BMD of the wrist predict mortality? BMD consistent with osteopenia and osteoporosis gave a significantly increased risk of death for both men and women in a general population in Tromsø, Norway. INTRODUCTION: To investigate if bone mineral density (BMD) levels of the distal forearm, consistent with osteopenia and osteoporosis, can predict mortality and if grip strength is an effect modifier...
August 9, 2018: Osteoporosis International
Dany-Michel Marcadet, Bruno Pavy, Gilles Bosser, Frédérique Claudot, Sonia Corone, Hervé Douard, Marie-Christine Iliou, Bénédicte Vergès-Patois, Pascal Amedro, Thierry Le Tourneau, Caroline Cueff, Taniela Avedian, Alain Cohen Solal, François Carré
The exercise test is performed routinely in cardiology; its main indication is the diagnosis of myocardial ischemia, evaluated along with the subject's pretest probability and cardiovascular risk level. Other criteria, such as analysis of repolarization, must be taken into consideration during the interpretation of an exercise test, to improve its predictive value. An exercise test is also indicated for many other cardiac diseases (e.g. rhythm and conduction disorders, severe asymptomatic aortic stenosis, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, peripheral artery disease, hypertension)...
August 6, 2018: Archives of Cardiovascular Diseases
Katherine Sanchez, Jessica O Boyce, Angela T Morgan, Alicia J Spittle
BACKGROUND: Feeding difficulties threaten growth, health and neurodevelopment, and are prevalent among infants born preterm. The literature differs on (i) whether these problems persist into early childhood, and (ii) risk factors in the preterm population. In this study we explore feeding difficulties and risk factors in preterm and term-born three-year-olds. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether three-year-olds born <30 weeks have poorer feeding outcomes than their term-born peers; and identify predictors of feeding outcomes in children born <30 weeks...
August 6, 2018: Appetite
Tobial McHugh, Kornkiat Snidvongs, Michael Xie, Sarfaraz Banglawala, Doron Sommer
BACKGROUND: Patients with eosinophilic chronic rhinosinusitis (ECRS) have been shown to have greater disease severity and poorer treatment outcomes after sinus surgery. Although the inflammatory pattern of ECRS is essential to diagnosing this subtype, there is currently no consensus for diagnosis. Our aim in this study was to determine whether high tissue eosinophilia (HTE), measured as eosinophils per high-power field (eos/HPF), could be used to define ECRS based on likelihood of recurrence...
August 9, 2018: International Forum of Allergy & Rhinology
J Thomas Mock, Sherilynn G Knight, Philip H Vann, Jessica M Wong, Delaney L Davis, Michael J Forster, Nathalie Sumien
Minor changes (~0.1 m/s) in human gait speed are predictive of various measures of decline and can be used to identify at-risk individuals prior to further decline. These associations are possible due to an abundance of human clinical research. However, age-related gait changes are not well defined in rodents, even though rodents are used as the primary pre-clinical model for many disease states as well as aging research. Our study investigated the usefulness of a novel automated system, the CatWalk™ XT, to measure age-related differences in gait...
August 2018: Aging and Disease
Chew-Teng Kor, Yao-Peng Hsieh, Chia-Chu Chang, Ping-Fang Chiu
Recently, both red cell distribution width (RDW) and mean corpuscular volume (MCV) have been associated with unfavorable outcomes in several medical conditions. Therefore, we conducted this retrospective study of 1075 patients with stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease to investigate whether interactions between RDW and MCV influence the risk of mortality. These patients were divided into four groups: group A (n = 415), RDW ≤ 14.9% and MCV ≤ 91.6 fL; group B (n = 232), RDW > 14.9% and MCV ≤ 91...
August 8, 2018: Scientific Reports
Jui-Yuan Chung, Chung-Han Ho, Yi-Chen Chen, Jiann-Hwa Chen, Hung-Jung Lin, Jhi-Joung Wang, Chien-Chin Hsu, Chien-Cheng Huang
BACKGROUND: Methanol poisoning (MP) often causes acute mortality and morbidities; however, the association between MP and subsequent mortality has not been well studied. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide population-based cohort study by identifying 621 participants with MP from the Nationwide Poisoning Database and 6210 participants without MP from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000 by matching the index date at a 1:10 ratio between 1999 and 2012. Comparison of the mortality rate between the two cohorts was performed by following up until 2013...
August 7, 2018: BMC Public Health
Ben F M Wijnen, Scarlett L Schat, Reina J A de Kinderen, Albert J Colon, Pauly P W Ossenblok, Silvia M A A Evers
BACKGROUND: Diagnosing epilepsy can be lengthy and stressful, potentially leading to increased use of healthcare resources and a reduction in quality of life. AIM: This study aims to determine cost and quality of life before and after an optimized diagnostic procedure for people suspected of having epilepsy from a societal perspective with a follow-up of 12 months. In addition, this study aims to differentiate between people diagnosed with epilepsy during the follow-up of the study and the people who are diagnosed as not having epilepsy or for whom diagnosis is still uncertain...
July 31, 2018: Epilepsy Research
Sofia Skampardoni, Dimitrios Poulikakos, Marek Malik, Darren Green, Philip A Kalra
Cardiovascular mortality is very high in chronic and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). However, risk stratification data are lacking. Sudden cardiac deaths are among the most common cardiovascular causes of death in these populations. As a result, many studies have assessed the prognostic potential of various electrocardiographic parameters in the renal population. Recent data from studies of implantable loop recordings in haemodialysis patients from five different countries have shed light on a pre-eminent bradyarrhythmic risk of mortality...
August 6, 2018: Nephrology, Dialysis, Transplantation
Alessandro Gasparini, Marie Evans, Peter Barany, Hairong Xu, Tomas Jernberg, Johan Ärnlöv, Lars H Lund, Juan-Jesús Carrero
Background: Small-scale studies suggest that hyperkalaemia is a less threatening condition in chronic kidney disease (CKD), arguing adaptation/tolerance to potassium (K+) retention. This study formally evaluates this hypothesis by estimating the distribution of plasma K+ and its association with mortality across CKD stages. Methods: This observational study included all patients undergoing plasma K+ testing in Stockholm during 2006-11. We randomly selected one K+ measurement per patient and constructed a cross-sectional cohort with mortality follow-up...
August 6, 2018: Nephrology, Dialysis, Transplantation
Neha G Goyal, Kami J Maddocks, Amy J Johnson, John C Byrd, Travis D Westbrook, Barbara L Andersen
Background: Chronic lymphocytic leukemia is the most prevalent adult leukemia. The disease is incurable with a cycling of treatment and relapse common. Little is known about the psychological and physical functioning of patients with relapsed/refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Cancer-specific stress is an important individual difference variable that predicts psychological and physical outcomes. Purpose: To examine cancer-specific stress at treatment initiation as a predictor of psychological and physical functioning trajectories in patients with relapsed/refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia during the first 5 months of treatment...
March 15, 2018: Annals of Behavioral Medicine: a Publication of the Society of Behavioral Medicine
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