D M Smith, R Eade, M B Andrews, H Ayres, A Clark, S Chripko, C Deser, N J Dunstone, J García-Serrano, G Gastineau, L S Graff, S C Hardiman, B He, L Hermanson, T Jung, J Knight, X Levine, G Magnusdottir, E Manzini, D Matei, M Mori, R Msadek, P Ortega, Y Peings, A A Scaife, J A Screen, M Seabrook, T Semmler, M Sigmond, J Streffing, L Sun, A Walsh
The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations...
February 7, 2022: Nature Communications