Keri N Althoff, Cameron Stewart, Elizabeth Humes, Lucas Gerace, Cynthia Boyd, Kelly Gebo, Amy C Justice, Emily P Hyle, Sally B Coburn, Raynell Lang, Michael J Silverberg, Michael A Horberg, Viviane D Lima, M John Gill, Maile Karris, Peter F Rebeiro, Jennifer Thorne, Ashleigh J Rich, Heidi Crane, Mari Kitahata, Anna Rubtsova, Cherise Wong, Sean Leng, Vincent C Marconi, Gypsyamber D'Souza, Hyang Nina Kim, Sonia Napravnik, Kathleen McGinnis, Gregory D Kirk, Timothy R Sterling, Richard D Moore, Parastu Kasaie
BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030...
January 12, 2024: PLoS Medicine