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Climatology

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28303992/predicting-dengue-outbreak-in-the-metropolitan-city-lahore-pakistan-using-dengue-vector-indices-and-selected-climatological-variables-as-predictors
#1
Ejaz Mahmood Ahmad Qureshi, Amtul Bari Tabinda, Seemal Vehra
OBJECTIVE: Dengue viruses have rapidly spread in Southeast Asia, particularly in Pakistan, during the last few years, so the present study was undertaken to formulate a model for predicting dengue outbreak. METHODOLOGY: A panel data using STRATA statistical software was employed to determine the effects of entomological indices, Per Man Hour Density (PMHD), Minimum Infection Rate (MIR) and selected climatic variables on dengue patients by using Fixed Effects (FE) and Random Effects (RE) models...
March 2017: JPMA. the Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28301603/drought-risk-assessment-under-climate-change-is-sensitive-to-methodological-choices-for-the-estimation-of-evaporative-demand
#2
Candida F Dewes, Imtiaz Rangwala, Joseph J Barsugli, Michael T Hobbins, Sanjiv Kumar
Several studies have projected increases in drought severity, extent and duration in many parts of the world under climate change. We examine sources of uncertainty arising from the methodological choices for the assessment of future drought risk in the continental US (CONUS). One such uncertainty is in the climate models' expression of evaporative demand (E0), which is not a direct climate model output but has been traditionally estimated using several different formulations. Here we analyze daily output from two CMIP5 GCMs to evaluate how differences in E0 formulation, treatment of meteorological driving data, choice of GCM, and standardization of time series influence the estimation of E0...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28298724/variability-of-chlorophyll-a-concentration-in-the-gulf-of-guinea-and-its-relation-to-physical-oceanographic-variables
#3
Karen Nieto, Frédéric Mélin
The Gulf of Guinea represents a wide tract of the African coast with complex and rich coastal ecosystems undergoing various pressures. The seasonal variations of chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla) along the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) and their relations with physical oceanographic variables were analyzed using satellite observations covering the period 2002-2012. The effects of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level anomalies (SLA), winds, geostrophic currents, eddy kinetic energy (EKE), mesoscale eddies and fronts were considered on a monthly time scale...
February 2017: Progress in Oceanography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28297929/flexible-dynamics-of-two-quorum-sensing-coupled-repressilators
#4
Edward H Hellen, Evgeny Volkov
Genetic oscillators play important roles in cell life regulation. The regulatory efficiency usually depends strongly on the emergence of stable collective dynamic modes, which requires designing the interactions between genetic networks. We investigate the dynamics of two identical synthetic genetic repressilators coupled by an additional plasmid which implements quorum sensing (QS) in each network thereby supporting global coupling. In a basic genetic ring oscillator network in which three genes inhibit each other in unidirectional manner, QS stimulates the transcriptional activity of chosen genes providing for competition between inhibitory and stimulatory activities localized in those genes...
February 2017: Physical Review. E
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28287128/a-unified-nonlinear-stochastic-time-series-analysis-for-climate-science
#5
Woosok Moon, John S Wettlaufer
Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode...
March 13, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28264781/quantification-and-mapping-of-urban-fluxes-under-climate-change-application-of-wrf-suews-model-to-greater-porto-area-portugal
#6
S Rafael, H Martins, M Marta-Almeida, E Sá, S Coelho, A Rocha, C Borrego, M Lopes
Climate change and the growth of urban populations are two of the main challenges facing Europe today. These issues are linked as climate change results in serious challenges for cities. Recent attention has focused on how urban surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and water will be affected by climate change and the implications for urban planning and sustainability. In this study energy fluxes for Greater Porto area, Portugal, were estimated and the influence of the projected climate change evaluated. To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) were applied for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986-2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046-2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8...
March 3, 2017: Environmental Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28242682/co-occurrence-of-extremes-in-surface-ozone-particulate-matter-and-temperature-over-eastern-north-america
#7
Jordan L Schnell, Michael J Prather
Heat waves and air pollution episodes pose a serious threat to human health and may worsen under future climate change. In this paper, we use 15 years (1999-2013) of commensurately gridded (1° x 1°) surface observations of extended summer (April-September) surface ozone (O3), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and maximum temperature (TX) over the eastern United States and Canada to construct a climatology of the coincidence, overlap, and lag in space and time of their extremes. Extremes of each quantity are defined climatologically at each grid cell as the 50 d with the highest values in three 5-y windows (∼95th percentile)...
February 27, 2017: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28239235/quality-control-of-an-hourly-rainfall-dataset-and-climatology-of-extremes-for-the-uk
#8
Stephen Blenkinsop, Elizabeth Lewis, Steven C Chan, Hayley J Fowler
Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non-operation of gauges...
February 2017: International Journal of Climatology: a Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28214513/molecular-dynamics-simulation-study-of-the-effect-of-glycerol-dialkyl-glycerol-tetraether-hydroxylation-on-membrane-thermostability
#9
Carme Huguet, Susanne Fietz, Antoni Rosell-Melé, Xavier Daura, Lionel Costenaro
Archaeal tetraether membrane lipids span the whole membrane width and present two C40 isoprenoid chains bound by two glycerol groups (or one glycerol and calditol). These lipids confer stability and maintain the membrane fluidity in mesophile to extremophile environments, making them very attractive for biotechnological applications. The isoprenoid lipid composition in archaeal membranes varies with temperature, which has placed these lipids in the focus of paleo-climatological studies for over a decade. Non-hydroxylated isoprenoid archaeal lipids are typically used as paleo-thermometry proxies, but recently identified hydroxylated (OH) derivatives have also been proposed as temperature proxies...
February 16, 2017: Biochimica et Biophysica Acta
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28208641/temporal-trends-in-satellite-derived-erythemal-uvb-and-implications-for-ambient-sun-exposure-assessment
#10
Marvin Langston, Leslie Dennis, Charles Lynch, Denise Roe, Heidi Brown
Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) has been associated with various health outcomes, including skin cancers, vitamin D insufficiency, and multiple sclerosis. Measurement of UVR has been difficult, traditionally relying on subject recall. We investigated trends in satellite-derived UVB from 1978 to 2014 within the continental United States (US) to inform UVR exposure assessment and determine the potential magnitude of misclassification bias created by ignoring these trends. Monthly UVB data remotely sensed from various NASA satellites were used to investigate changes over time in the United States using linear regression with a harmonic function...
February 10, 2017: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28203645/saharan-dust-detection-using-multi-sensor-satellite-measurements
#11
Sriharsha Madhavan, John J Qu, X Hao
Contemporary scientists have vested interest in trying to understand the climatology of the North Atlantic Basin since this region is considered as the genesis for hurricane formation that eventually get shipped to the tropical Atlantic region and the Caribbean. The effects of atmospheric water cycle and the climate of West Africa and the Atlantic basin are hugely impacted by the radiative forcing of Saharan dust. The focus area in this paper would be to improve the dust detection schemes by employing the use of multi sensor measurements in the thermal emissive wavelengths using legacy sensors such as Terra (T) and Aqua (A) MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), fusing with Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)...
February 2017: Heliyon
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28192988/accumulation-of-perfluoroalkylated-substances-in-oceanic-plankton
#12
Paulo Casal, Belén González-Gaya, Yifeng Zhang, Anthony J F Reardon, Jonathan W Martin, Begoña Jiménez, Jordi Dachs
The bioaccumulation of perfluoroalkylated substances (PFASs) in plankton has previously been evaluated only in freshwater and regional seas, but not for the large oligotrophic global oceans. Plankton samples from the tropical and subtropical Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans were collected during the Malaspina 2010 circumnavigation expedition, and analyzed for 14 ionizable PFASs, including perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) and their respective linear and branched isomers. PFOA and PFOS concentrations in plankton ranged from 0...
February 24, 2017: Environmental Science & Technology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28173628/designing-ecological-climate-change-impact-assessments-to-reflect-key-climatic-drivers
#13
Helen R Sofaer, Joseph J Barsugli, Catherine S Jarnevich, John T Abatzoglou, Marian K Talbert, Brian W Miller, Jeffrey T Morisette
Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models...
February 7, 2017: Global Change Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28161043/utilising-green-and-bluespace-to-mitigate-urban-heat-island-intensity
#14
K R Gunawardena, M J Wells, T Kershaw
It has long been recognised that cities exhibit their own microclimate and are typically warmer than the surrounding rural areas. This 'mesoscale' influence is known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect and results largely from modification of surface properties leading to greater absorption of solar radiation, reduced convective cooling and lower water evaporation rates. Cities typically contain less vegetation and bodies of water than rural areas, and existing green and bluespace is often under threat from increasing population densities...
April 15, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28147494/extremes-in-dynamic-stochastic-systems
#15
Christian L E Franzke
Extreme events capture the attention and imagination of the general public. Extreme events, especially meteorological and climatological extremes, cause significant economic damages and lead to a significant number of casualties each year. Thus, the prediction of extremes is of obvious importance. Here, I will survey the predictive skill and the predictability of extremes using dynamic-stochastic models. These dynamic-stochastic models combine deterministic nonlinear dynamics with a stochastic component, which consists potentially of both additive and multiplicative noise components...
January 2017: Chaos
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28134309/collapse-of-the-tropical-and-subtropical-north-atlantic-co2-sink-in-boreal-spring-of-2010
#16
J Severino P Ibánhez, Manuel Flores, Nathalie Lefèvre
Following the 2009 Pacific El Niño, a warm event developed in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic during boreal spring of 2010 promoted a significant increase in the CO2 fugacity of surface waters. This, together with the relaxation of the prevailing wind fields, resulted in the reversal of the atmospheric CO2 absorption capacity of the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. In the region 0-30°N, 62-10°W, this climatic event led to the reversal of the climatological CO2 sink of -29.3 Tg C to a source of CO2 to the atmosphere of 1...
January 30, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28128293/improved-prediction-of-severe-thunderstorms-over-the-indian-monsoon-region-using-high-resolution-soil-moisture-and-temperature-initialization
#17
K K Osuri, R Nadimpalli, U C Mohanty, F Chen, M Rajeevan, D Niyogi
The hypothesis that realistic land conditions such as soil moisture/soil temperature (SM/ST) can significantly improve the modeling of mesoscale deep convection is tested over the Indian monsoon region (IMR). A high resolution (3 km foot print) SM/ST dataset prepared from a land data assimilation system, as part of a national monsoon mission project, showed close agreement with observations. Experiments are conducted with (LDAS) and without (CNTL) initialization of SM/ST dataset. Results highlight the significance of realistic land surface conditions on numerical prediction of initiation, movement and timing of severe thunderstorms as compared to that currently being initialized by climatological fields in CNTL run...
January 27, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28109664/an-anomalous-african-dust-event-and-its-impact-on-aerosol-radiative-forcing-on-the-southwest-atlantic-coast-of-europe-in-february-2016
#18
M Sorribas, J A Adame, E Andrews, M Yela
A desert dust (DD) event that had its origin in North Africa occurred on the 20th-23rd of February 2016. The dust transport phenomenon was exceptional because of its unusual intensity during the coldest season. A historical dataset (2006-2015) of February meteorological scenarios using ECMWF fields, meteorological parameters, aerosol optical properties, surface O3 and AOD retrieved from MODIS at the El Arenosillo observatory (southwestern Spain) were analysed and compared with the levels during the DD event to highlight its exceptionality...
January 18, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28104887/regional-and-global-sea-surface-temperatures-during-the-last-interglaciation
#19
Jeremy S Hoffman, Peter U Clark, Andrew C Parnell, Feng He
The last interglaciation (LIG, 129 to 116 thousand years ago) was the most recent time in Earth's history when global mean sea level was substantially higher than it is at present. However, reconstructions of LIG global temperature remain uncertain, with estimates ranging from no significant difference to nearly 2°C warmer than present-day temperatures. Here we use a network of sea-surface temperature (SST) records to reconstruct spatiotemporal variability in regional and global SSTs during the LIG. Our results indicate that peak LIG global mean annual SSTs were 0...
January 20, 2017: Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28103912/impact-of-proximity-of-thermoelectric-power-plants-on-bronchial-obstructive-crisis-rates
#20
Tamara Ugarte-Avilés, Carlos Manterola, Ricardo Cartes-Velásquez, Tamara Otzen
BACKGROUND: Environmental pollution is a risk factor for cardiorespiratory diseases. Energy generated by thermoelectric power plants (TEPP) represents a relevant source of pollution. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between living near a coal-fired TEPP and the consultation rates for bronchial obstructive crises (BOC) in the province of Concepción, Chile. METHODS: Population-based study. The epidemiological weeks from 2012 to 2014 were analyzed...
January 19, 2017: BMC Public Health
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