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Davide Zanchettin, Carlo Gaetan, Maeregu Woldeyes Arisido, Kameswarrao Modali, Thomas Toniazzo, Noel Keenlyside, Angelo Rubino
Decadal climate predictions use initialized coupled model simulations that are typically affected by a drift toward a biased climatology determined by systematic model errors. Model drifts thus reflect a fundamental source of uncertainty in decadal climate predictions. However, their analysis has so far relied on ad-hoc assessments of empirical and subjective character. Here, we define the climate model drift as a dynamical process rather than a descriptive diagnostic. A unified statistical Bayesian framework is proposed where a state-space model is used to decompose systematic decadal climate prediction errors into an initial drift, seasonally varying climatological biases and additional effects of co-varying climate processes...
October 9, 2017: Scientific Reports
S Miladinova, A Stips, E Garcia-Gorriz, D Macias Moy
The current knowledge about spatial and temporal dynamics of the Black Sea's thermohaline structure is incomplete because of missing data and sparse distribution of existing measurements in space and time. This study presents 56 year continuous simulations of the Black Sea's hydrodynamics using the 3D General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), without incorporating any relaxation toward climatological or observational data fields. This property of the model allows us to estimate independent temporal trends, in addition to resolving the spatial structure...
July 2017: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans
Dana E Goin, Kara E Rudolph, Jennifer Ahern
Climate and weather have been linked to criminal activity. The connection between climatological conditions and crime is of growing importance as we seek to understand the societal implications of climate change. This study describes the mechanisms theorized to link annual variations in climate to crime in California and examines the effect of drought on statewide crime rates from 2011-2015. California has suffered severe drought since 2011, resulting in intensely dry winters and several of the hottest days on record...
2017: PloS One
Aaron S Kaulfus, Udaysankar Nair, Daniel Jaffe, Sundar A Christopher, Scott Goodrick
We utilize the NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke product for the period of 2005 to 2016 to develop climatology of smoke occurrence over the Continental United States (CONUS) region and to study the impact of wildland fires on particulate matter air quality at the surface. Our results indicate that smoke is most frequently found over the Great Plains and western states during the summer months. Other hotspots of smoke occurrence are found over state and national parks in the southeast during winter and spring, in the Gulf of Mexico southwards of the Texas and Louisiana coastline during spring season and along the Mississippi River Delta during the fall season...
September 29, 2017: Environmental Science & Technology
Franziska Hupfer
In the second half of the nineteenth century, most European countries began to finance weather observation networks. As a result, climatological data practices changed fundamentally. Using the example of Switzerland, this paper examines the political, institutional and methodological dimensions of national data archives. The institutionalization of data collection within the national framework meant, on the one hand, that more observations were systematically made and published. On the other hand, it also meant that the monitoring was connected to state boundaries...
September 27, 2017: NTM
Kok Leng Yeo, Sami K Solanki, Charlotte M Norris, Benjamin Beeck, Yvonne C Unruh, Natalie A Krivova
The variation in the radiative output of the Sun, described in terms of solar irradiance, is important to climatology. A common assumption is that solar irradiance variability is driven by its surface magnetism. Verifying this assumption has, however, been hampered by the fact that models of solar irradiance variability based on solar surface magnetism have to be calibrated to observed variability. Making use of realistic three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the solar atmosphere and state-of-the-art solar magnetograms from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we present a model of total solar irradiance (TSI) that does not require any such calibration...
September 1, 2017: Physical Review Letters
Bindumol G P, Harilal C C
Leaching potential of pesticides, apart from climatological factors, depends on soil physical properties, soil-pesticide interaction and chemical nature of the molecule. Recent investigations have revealed the presence of various organophosphate pesticides in various agroecosystems. The present study investigated the soil transport mechanism of commonly used organophosphate pesticides in acidic sandy clay loam soils of Kerala State, India. Packed soil column experiment was undertaken under laboratory condition for 30 days...
September 15, 2017: Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
Veda Malpress, Sophie Bestley, Stuart Corney, Dirk Welsford, Sara Labrousse, Michael Sumner, Mark Hindell
Antarctic coastal polynyas are persistent open water areas in the sea ice zone, and regions of high biological productivity thought to be important foraging habitat for marine predators. This study quantified southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) habitat use within and around the polynyas of the Prydz Bay region (63°E- 88°E) in East Antarctica, and examined the bio-physical characteristics structuring polynyas as foraging habitat. Output from a climatological regional ocean model was used to provide context for in situ temperature-salinity vertical profiles collected by tagged elephant seals and to characterise the physical properties structuring polynyas...
2017: PloS One
Péter Szabó, Andrea Gálová, Eva Jamrichová, Kateřina Šumberová, Jan Šipoš, Radim Hédl
Environmental change can be viewed as the combined result of long-term processes and singular events. While long-term trends appear to be readily available for observation (in the form of temporal comparisons or space-for-time substitution), it is more difficult to gain information on singular events in the past, although these can be equally significant in shaping ecosystems. We examined the past 700 years in the history of a lowland wetland landscape in the Czech Republic with the help of palaeoecological, ecological, landscape archaeological, and archival data...
February 2017: Regional Environmental Change
Jun Matsumoto, Fumiaki Fujibe, Hideo Takahashi
Long-term climate changes related with urbanization in Tokyo, Japan, and recent temperature and heavy rainfall distribution in the Tokyo metropolitan area are reviewed. A relatively high temperature increase in annual mean temperature at the rate of 3.0°C/century was detected in Tokyo for the period 1901-2015. Some observational evidence showed the existence of both thermal and mechanical effects of urbanization on recent heavy rainfall occurrences, and modeling studies also support precipitation enhancement...
September 2017: Journal of Environmental Sciences (China)
Simon Deusch, Amélia Camarinha-Silva, Jürgen Conrad, Uwe Beifuss, Markus Rodehutscord, Jana Seifert
The structure and function of the microbiome inhabiting the rumen are, amongst other factors, mainly shaped by the animal's feed intake. Describing the influence of different diets on the inherent community arrangement and associated metabolic activities of the most active ruminal fractions (bacteria and archaea) is of great interest for animal nutrition, biotechnology, and climatology. Samples were obtained from three fistulated Jersey cows rotationally fed with corn silage, grass silage or grass hay, each supplemented with a concentrate mixture...
2017: Frontiers in Microbiology
Christine DeCarlo, Anwar H Omar, Mohammod I Haroun, Laura Bigler, Mohamad N Bin Rais, Jalila Abu, Abdul Rahman Omar, Hussni O Mohammed
West Nile virus (WNV) is a zoonotic single-strand RNA arbovirus (family Flaviviridae: Flavivirus), transmitted among avian hosts in enzootic cycles by a mosquito vector. The virus has a significant disease effect on humans and equines when it bridges into a cycle with various sequelae with epidemic potential. This study was carried out to identify the potential spectrum of WNV hosts in three geographic areas with climatologically distinct features: Malaysia, Qatar, and the United States of America (U.S.). Serum samples were collected from avian and mammal species suspected to be reservoirs for the virus at these areas in a cross-sectional epidemiologic study...
October 2017: Vector Borne and Zoonotic Diseases
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Olaf Conrad, Jürgen Böhner, Tobias Kawohl, Holger Kreft, Rodrigo Wilber Soria-Auza, Niklaus E Zimmermann, H Peter Linder, Michael Kessler
High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction...
September 5, 2017: Scientific Data
Tomoki Tozuka, Meghan F Cronin, Hiroyuki Tomita
Western boundary currents bring warm tropical water poleward and eastward and are characterized by a sharp sea surface temperature (SST) front on the poleward edge of the current as it extends into the interior basin. One of the most prominent such front is associated with the Kuroshio Extension (KE) as it extends east of Japan ("upstream KE"). Large latent and sensible heat fluxes that warm the atmosphere and cool the ocean project this front into the atmosphere, thereby affecting weather and climate both locally and remotely...
August 31, 2017: Scientific Reports
Akihiko Ito, Rota Wagai
Clay-size minerals play important roles in terrestrial biogeochemistry and atmospheric physics, but their data have been only partially compiled at global scale. We present a global dataset of clay-size minerals in the topsoil and subsoil at different spatial resolutions. The data of soil clay and its mineralogical composition were gathered through a literature survey and aggregated by soil orders of the Soil Taxonomy for each of the ten groups: gibbsite, kaolinite, illite/mica, smectite, vermiculite, chlorite, iron oxide, quartz, non-crystalline, and others...
August 22, 2017: Scientific Data
José A Marengo, Lincoln M Alves, Regina C S Alvala, Ana Paula Cunha, Sheila Brito, Osvaldo L L Moraes
This study discusses the climatological aspects of the most severe drought ever recorded in the semiarid region Northeast Brazil. Droughts are recurrent in the region and while El Nino has driven some of these events others are more dependent on the tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature fields. The drought affecting this region during the last 5 years shows an intensity and impact not seen in several decades in the regional economy and society. The analysis of this event using drought indicators as well as meteorological fields shows that since the middle 1990s to 2016, 16 out of 25 years experienced rainfall below normal...
August 14, 2017: Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências
Lorenzo Mari, Luca Bonaventura, Andrea Storto, Paco Melià, Marino Gatto, Simona Masina, Renato Casagrandi
Protecting key hotspots of marine biodiversity is essential to maintain ecosystem services at large spatial scales. Protected areas serve not only as sources of propagules colonizing other habitats, but also as receptors, thus acting as protected nurseries. To quantify the geographical extent and the temporal persistence of ecological benefits resulting from protection, we investigate larval connectivity within a remote archipelago, characterized by a strong spatial gradient of human impact from pristine to heavily exploited: the Northern Line Islands (NLIs), including part of the Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument (PRI-MNM)...
2017: PloS One
Andrew C Trautz, Tissa H Illangasekare, Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe
Plant performance (i.e., fecundity, growth, survival) depends on an individual's access to space and resources. At the community level, plant performance is reflected in observable vegetation patterning (i.e., spacing distance, density) often controlled by limiting resources. Resource availability is, in turn, strongly dependent on plant patterning mediated by competitive and facilitative plant-plant interactions. Co-occurring competition and facilitation has never been specifically investigated from a hydrodynamic perspective...
August 29, 2017: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Raül Marcos, Ma Carmen Llasat, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Marco Turco
In this paper, we have compared different bias correction methodologies to assess whether they could be advantageous for improving the performance of a seasonal prediction model for volume anomalies in the Boadella reservoir (northwestern Mediterranean). The bias correction adjustments have been applied on precipitation and temperature from the European Centre for Middle-range Weather Forecasting System 4 (S4). We have used three bias correction strategies: two linear (mean bias correction, BC, and linear regression, LR) and one non-linear (Model Output Statistics analogs, MOS-analog)...
January 1, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Jaime Martínez-Valderrama, Javier Ibáñez, Gabriel Del Barrio, Francisco J Alcalá, Maria E Sanjuán, Alberto Ruiz, Azziz Hirche, Juan Puigdefábregas
This work illustrates the application of a simulation model to analyse how swiftly large-scale land-use changes can drive broad territories to collapse. In this sense, the economic needs of a population should not clash with the natural environment but rather be reconciled with it. Abundant literature deals with the integration of socioeconomic drivers, ecological aspects, farming management, and climatology related to Algerian rangeland degradation. The present study seeks to compare the time course of Alfa grass biomass and the livestock raised on these distinctive rangelands under two different land-use strategies...
August 9, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
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