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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27903266/environmental-determinants-of-malaria-transmission-in-african-villages
#1
Noriko Endo, Elfatih A B Eltahir
BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission is complex, involving a range of hydroclimatological, biological, and environmental processes. The high degree of non-linearity in these processes makes it difficult to predict and intervene against malaria. This study seeks both to define a minimal number of malaria transmission determinants, and to provide a theoretical basis for sustainable environmental manipulation to prevent malaria transmission. METHODS: Using a field-tested mechanistic malaria model, HYDREMATS, a theoretical study was conducted under hypothetical conditions...
December 1, 2016: Malaria Journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27884523/the-anthroposphere-as-an-anticipatory-system-open-questions-on-steering-the-climate
#2
Rocco Scolozzi, Davide Geneletti
Climate change research and action counteracting it affect everyone and would involve cross-societal transformations reshaping the anthroposphere in its entirety. Scrutinizing climate-related science and policies, we recognize attempts to steer the evolution of climate according to expected (or modelled) futures. Such attempts would turn the anthroposphere into a large "anticipatory system", in which human society seeks to anticipate and, possibly, to govern climate dynamics. The chief aim of this discussion paper is to open a critical debate on the climate change paradigm (CCP) drawing on a strategic and systemic framework grounded in the concept of anticipatory system sensu Rosen (1991)...
November 22, 2016: Science of the Total Environment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27875581/statistical-models-for-tornado-climatology-long-and-short-term-views
#3
James B Elsner, Thomas H Jagger, Tyler Fricker
This paper estimates regional tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over time. Results provide a long-term view of risk that delineates the main tornado corridors in the United States where the expected annual rate exceeds two tornadoes per 10,000 square km. A few counties in the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas have annual rates that exceed four tornadoes per 10,000 square km...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27869386/prediction-of-the-respiratory-syncitial-virus-epidemic-using-climate-variables-in-bogot%C3%A3-d-c
#4
Gilberto González-Parra, José F Querales, Diego Aranda
lntroduction: The respiratory syncitial virus is one of the most common causes of mortality in children and older adults in the world. Objective: To predict the initial week of outbreaks and to establish the most relevant climate variables using naive Bayes classifiers and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). Materials and methods: The initial dates of the outbreaks in children less than five years old for the period 2005-2010 were obtained for Bogotá, Colombia. We selected the climatological variables using a correlation matrix and we constructed 1,020 models using different climatological variables and data from different weeks previous to the initial outbreak...
September 1, 2016: Biomédica: Revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27867786/aerosol-lidar-observations-of-atmospheric-mixing-in-los-angeles-climatology-and-implications-for-greenhouse-gas-observations
#5
John Ware, Eric A Kort, Phil DeCola, Riley Duren
Atmospheric observations of greenhouse gases provide essential information on sources and sinks of these key atmospheric constituents. To quantify fluxes from atmospheric observations, representation of transport-especially vertical mixing-is a necessity and often a source of error. We report on remotely sensed profiles of vertical aerosol distribution taken over a 2 year period in Pasadena, California. Using an automated analysis system, we estimate daytime mixing layer depth, achieving high confidence in the afternoon maximum on 51% of days with profiles from a Sigma Space Mini Micropulse LiDAR (MiniMPL) and on 36% of days with a Vaisala CL51 ceilometer...
August 27, 2016: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres: JGR
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27849587/wind-speed-reductions-by-large-scale-wind-turbine-deployments-lower-turbine-efficiencies-and-set-low-generation-limits
#6
Lee M Miller, Axel Kleidon
Wind turbines generate electricity by removing kinetic energy from the atmosphere. Large numbers of wind turbines are likely to reduce wind speeds, which lowers estimates of electricity generation from what would be presumed from unaffected conditions. Here, we test how well wind power limits that account for this effect can be estimated without explicitly simulating atmospheric dynamics. We first use simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) that explicitly simulates the effects of wind turbines to derive wind power limits (GCM estimate), and compare them to a simple approach derived from the climatological conditions without turbines [vertical kinetic energy (VKE) estimate]...
November 14, 2016: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27834368/more-frequent-intense-and-long-lived-storms-dominate-the-springtime-trend-in-central-us-rainfall
#7
Zhe Feng, L Ruby Leung, Samson Hagos, Robert A Houze, Casey D Burleyson, Karthik Balaguru
The changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in the central United States are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largest type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs...
November 11, 2016: Nature Communications
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27832866/effects-of-landscape-composition-and-pattern-on-land-surface-temperature-an-urban-heat-island-study-in-the-megacities-of-southeast-asia
#8
Ronald C Estoque, Yuji Murayama, Soe W Myint
Due to its adverse impacts on urban ecological environment and the overall livability of cities, the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon has become a major research focus in various interrelated fields, including urban climatology, urban ecology, urban planning, and urban geography. This study sought to examine the relationship between land surface temperature (LST) and the abundance and spatial pattern of impervious surface and green space in the metropolitan areas of Bangkok (Thailand), Jakarta (Indonesia), and Manila (Philippines)...
January 15, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27832108/the-differential-warming-response-of-britain-s-rivers-1982-2011
#9
Art R T Jonkers, Kieran J Sharkey
River water temperature is a hydrological feature primarily controlled by topographical, meteorological, climatological, and anthropogenic factors. For Britain, the study of freshwater temperatures has focussed mainly on observations made in England and Wales; similar comprehensive data sets for Scotland are currently unavailable. Here we present a model for the whole of mainland Britain over three recent decades (1982-2011) that incorporates geographical extrapolation to Scotland. The model estimates daily mean freshwater temperature for every river segment and for any day in the studied period, based upon physico-geographical features, daily mean air and sea temperatures, and available freshwater temperature measurements...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27818852/accuracy-of-short-term-sea-ice-drift-forecasts-using-a-coupled-ice-ocean-model
#10
Axel J Schweiger, Jinlun Zhang
Arctic sea ice drift forecasts of 6 h-9 days for the summer of 2014 are generated using the Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS); the model is driven by 6 h atmospheric forecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2). Forecast ice drift speed is compared to drifting buoys and other observational platforms. Forecast positions are compared with actual positions 24 h-8 days since forecast. Forecast results are further compared to those from the forecasts generated using an ice velocity climatology driven by multiyear integrations of the same model...
December 2015: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27812298/mixture-emos-model-for-calibrating-ensemble-forecasts-of-wind-speed
#11
S Baran, S Lerch
Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a statistical tool for post-processing forecast ensembles of weather variables obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models in order to produce calibrated predictive probability density functions. The EMOS predictive probability density function is given by a parametric distribution with parameters depending on the ensemble forecasts. We propose an EMOS model for calibrating wind speed forecasts based on weighted mixtures of truncated normal (TN) and log-normal (LN) distributions where model parameters and component weights are estimated by optimizing the values of proper scoring rules over a rolling training period...
March 2016: Environmetrics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27799528/enhanced-intensity-of-global-tropical-cyclones-during-the-mid-pliocene-warm-period
#12
Qing Yan, Ting Wei, Robert L Korty, James P Kossin, Zhongshi Zhang, Huijun Wang
Given the threats that tropical cyclones (TC) pose to people and infrastructure, there is significant interest in how the climatology of these storms may change with climate. The global historical record has been extensively examined, but it is short and plagued with recurring questions about its homogeneity, limiting its effectiveness at assessing how TCs vary with climate. Past warm intervals provide an opportunity to quantify TC behavior in a warmer-than-present world. Here, we use a TC-resolving (∼25 km) global atmospheric model to investigate TC activity during the mid-Pliocene warm period (3...
October 31, 2016: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27790992/hurricane-sandy-s-flood-frequency-increasing-from-year-1800-to-2100
#13
Ning Lin, Robert E Kopp, Benjamin P Horton, Jeffrey P Donnelly
Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4...
October 25, 2016: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27785157/multi-pollutant-surface-objective-analyses-and-mapping-of-air-quality-health-index-over-north-america
#14
Alain Robichaud, Richard Ménard, Yulia Zaïtseva, David Anselmo
Air quality, like weather, can affect everyone, but responses differ depending on the sensitivity and health condition of a given individual. To help protect exposed populations, many countries have put in place real-time air quality nowcasting and forecasting capabilities. We present in this paper an optimal combination of air quality measurements and model outputs and show that it leads to significant improvements in the spatial representativeness of air quality. The product is referred to as multi-pollutant surface objective analyses (MPSOAs)...
2016: Air Quality, Atmosphere, & Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27760114/fluvial-sediment-supply-to-a-mega-delta-reduced-by-shifting-tropical-cyclone-activity
#15
Stephen E Darby, Christopher R Hackney, Julian Leyland, Matti Kummu, Hannu Lauri, Daniel R Parsons, James L Best, Andrew P Nicholas, Rolf Aalto
The world's rivers deliver 19 billion tonnes of sediment to the coastal zone annually, with a considerable fraction being sequestered in large deltas, home to over 500 million people. Most (more than 70 per cent) large deltas are under threat from a combination of rising sea levels, ground surface subsidence and anthropogenic sediment trapping, and a sustainable supply of fluvial sediment is therefore critical to prevent deltas being 'drowned' by rising relative sea levels. Here we combine suspended sediment load data from the Mekong River with hydrological model simulations to isolate the role of tropical cyclones in transmitting suspended sediment to one of the world's great deltas...
October 19, 2016: Nature
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27755694/projected-wetland-densities-under-climate-change-habitat-loss-but-little-geographic-shift-in-conservation-strategy
#16
Helen R Sofaer, Susan K Skagen, Joseph J Barsugli, Benjamin S Rashford, Gordon C Reese, Jennifer A Hoeting, Andrew W Wood, Barry R Noon
Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species...
September 2016: Ecological Applications: a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27733971/enhanced-mesoscale-climate-projections-in-tar-and-ar5-ipcc-scenarios-a-case-study-in-a-mediterranean-climate-araucan%C3%A3-a-region-south-central-chile
#17
R Orrego, R Abarca-Del-Río, A Ávila, L Morales
Climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962-1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070-2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°-40°S and 71°-74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies...
2016: SpringerPlus
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27722858/plague-a-disease-which-changed-the-path-of-human-civilization
#18
Barbara Bramanti, Nils Chr Stenseth, Lars Walløe, Xu Lei
Plague caused by Yersinia pestis is a zoonotic infection, i.e., it is maintained in wildlife by animal reservoirs and on occasion spills over into human populations, causing outbreaks of different entities. Large epidemics of plague, which have had significant demographic, social, and economic consequences, have been recorded in Western European historical documents since the sixth century. Plague has remained in Europe for over 1400 years, intermittently disappearing, yet it is not clear if there were reservoirs for Y...
2016: Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27693146/seasonal-predictability-of-water-resources-in-a-mediterranean-freshwater-reservoir-and-assessment-of-its-utility-for-end-users
#19
Raül Marcos, Ma Carmen Llasat, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Marco Turco
In this study we explore the seasonal predictability of water resources in a Mediterranean environment (the Boadella reservoir, in north-eastern Spain). Its utility for end-users is assessed through the analysis of economic value curve areas (EVA). Firstly, we have built monthly multiple linear regression (MLR) models for the in-flow, out-flow and volume anomalies by identifying the underlying relationships between these predictands and their potential predictors, both meteorological and human influenced: rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, reservoir volume and discharge...
September 29, 2016: Science of the Total Environment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27680499/a-paradox-for-air-pollution-controlling-in-china-revealed-by-apec-blue-and-parade-blue
#20
Haoran Liu, Cheng Liu, Zhouqing Xie, Ying Li, Xin Huang, Shanshan Wang, Jin Xu, Pinhua Xie
A series of strict emission control measures were implemented in Beijing and surrounding regions to ensure good air quality during the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit and 2015 Grand Military Parade (Parade), which led to blue sky days during these two events commonly referred to as "APEC Blue" and "Parade Blue". Here we calculated Multi-Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO2 and HCHO results based on well known DOAS trace gas fitting algorithm and WRF-Chem model (with measured climatology parameter and newest emission inventor) simulated trace gases profiles...
September 29, 2016: Scientific Reports
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