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Douglas Richardson, Hayley J Fowler, Christopher G Kilsby, Robert Neal
Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn...
February 2018: International Journal of Climatology: a Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Barbara Templ, Elisabeth Koch, Kjell Bolmgren, Markus Ungersböck, Anita Paul, Helfried Scheifinger, This Rutishauser, Montserrat Busto, Frank-M Chmielewski, Lenka Hájková, Sabina Hodzić, Frank Kaspar, Barbara Pietragalla, Ramiro Romero-Fresneda, Anne Tolvanen, Višnja Vučetič, Kirsten Zimmermann, Ana Zust
The Pan European Phenology (PEP) project is a European infrastructure to promote and facilitate phenological research, education, and environmental monitoring. The main objective is to maintain and develop a Pan European Phenological database (PEP725) with an open, unrestricted data access for science and education. PEP725 is the successor of the database developed through the COST action 725 "Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications" working as a single access point for European-wide plant phenological data...
February 18, 2018: International Journal of Biometeorology
Zhida Huang, Wei Zhuang, Hailong Liu, Jianyu Hu
Based on three climatologically observed temperature and salinity datasets (i.e., GDEM-V3, SCSPOD14 and WOA13), this paper reports a low-salinity (~34.32) water mass in the subsurface-to-intermediate layer around the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea. This water mass mainly subducts from the surface layer into the intermediate layer, characterized by a relatively low potential vorticity tongue extending from the bottom of mixed layer to the thermocline, and accompanied by a thermocline ventilation in spring (especially in April)...
February 15, 2018: Scientific Reports
Diego Macias, Adolf Stips, Elisa Garcia-Gorriz, Alessandro Dosio
We evaluate the changes on the hydrological (temperature and salinity) and biogeochemical (phytoplankton biomass) characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea induced by freshwater flow modifications under two different scenarios for the end of the 21st century. An ensemble of four regional climate model realizations using different global circulation models at the boundary and different emission scenarios are used to force a single ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea. Freshwater flow is modified according to the simulated changes in the precipitation rates for the different rivers' catchment regions...
2018: PloS One
Jesse A Day, Inez Fung, Weihan Liu
The topography and continental configuration of East Asia favor the year-round existence of storm tracks that extend thousands of kilometers from China into the northwestern Pacific Ocean, producing zonally elongated patterns of rainfall that we call "frontal rain events." In spring and early summer (known as "Meiyu Season"), frontal rainfall intensifies and shifts northward during a series of stages collectively known as the East Asian summer monsoon. Using a technique called the Frontal Rain Event Detection Algorithm, we create a daily catalog of all frontal rain events in east China during 1951-2007, quantify their attributes, and classify all rainfall on each day as either frontal, resulting from large-scale convergence, or nonfrontal, produced by local buoyancy, topography, or typhoons...
February 12, 2018: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Tzitziki Loeza-Quintana, Sarah J Adamowicz
During the past 50 years, the molecular clock has become one of the main tools for providing a time scale for the history of life. In the era of robust molecular evolutionary analysis, clock calibration is still one of the most basic steps needing attention. When fossil records are limited, well-dated geological events are the main resource for calibration. However, biogeographic calibrations have often been used in a simplistic manner, for example assuming simultaneous vicariant divergence of multiple sister lineages...
February 10, 2018: Journal of Molecular Evolution
Andrej Ceglar, Andrea Toreti, Chloe Prodhomme, Matteo Zampieri, Marco Turco, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes
Seasonal crop yield forecasting represents an important source of information to maintain market stability, minimise socio-economic impacts of crop losses and guarantee humanitarian food assistance, while it fosters the use of climate information favouring adaptation strategies. As climate variability and extremes have significant influence on agricultural production, the early prediction of severe weather events and unfavourable conditions can contribute to the mitigation of adverse effects. Seasonal climate forecasts provide additional value for agricultural applications in several regions of the world...
January 22, 2018: Scientific Reports
Nicholas M Teets, Daniel A Hahn
Temperature variation is one of the primary challenges facing ectotherms, and the ability to tolerate a range of thermal environments is critical for setting current and future species distributions. Low temperature is particularly challenging for ectotherms because winter conditions have strong latitudinal and temporal variation. Lower lethal temperature (LLT) is a common metric of cold tolerance used in studies of local adaptation and plasticity. Comparisons of LLT across groups typically assume parallel S-shaped survival curves, but genetic variation in the shape of survival vs...
January 18, 2018: Journal of Evolutionary Biology
John T Abatzoglou, Solomon Z Dobrowski, Sean A Parks, Katherine C Hegewisch
We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity...
January 9, 2018: Scientific Data
J Kolassa, R H Reichle, Q Liu, S H Alemohammad, P Gentine, K Aida, J Asanuma, S Bircher, T Caldwell, A Colliander, M Cosh, C Holifield Collins, T J Jackson, J Martínez-Fernández, H McNairn, A Pacheco, M Thibeault, J P Walker
A Neural Network (NN) algorithm was developed to estimate global surface soil moisture for April 2015 to March 2017 with a 2-3 day repeat frequency using passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite, surface soil temperatures from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5 (GEOS-5) land modeling system, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-based vegetation water content. The NN was trained on GEOS-5 soil moisture target data, making the NN estimates consistent with the GEOS-5 climatology, such that they may ultimately be assimilated into this model without further bias correction...
January 2018: Remote Sensing of Environment
Ralph A Kahn, Tim A Berkoff, Charles Brock, Gao Chen, Richard A Ferrare, Steven Ghan, Thomas F Hansico, Dean A Hegg, J Vanderlei Martins, Cameron S McNaughton, Daniel M Murphy, John A Ogren, Joyce E Penner, Peter Pilewskie, John H Seinfeld, Douglas R Worsnop
A modest operational program of systematic aircraft measurements can resolve key satellite-aerosol-data-record limitations. Satellite observations provide frequent, global aerosol-amount maps, but offer only loose aerosol property constraints needed for climate and air quality applications. We define and illustrate the feasibility of flying an aircraft payload to measure key aerosol optical, microphysical, and chemical properties in situ. The flight program could characterize major aerosol air-mass types statistically, at a level-of-detail unobtainable from space...
October 2017: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Stephen G Penny
The state-of-the-art data assimilation methods used today in operational weather prediction centers around the world can be classified as generalized one-way coupled impulsive synchronization. This classification permits the investigation of hybrid data assimilation methods, which combine dynamic error estimates of the system state with long time-averaged (climatological) error estimates, from a synchronization perspective. Illustrative results show how dynamically informed formulations of the coupling matrix (via an Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF) can lead to synchronization when observing networks are sparse and how hybrid methods can lead to synchronization when those dynamic formulations are inadequate (due to small ensemble sizes)...
December 2017: Chaos
W Wiegerinck, F M Selten
Recently, supermodels consisting of an ensemble of interacting models, synchronizing on a common solution, have been proposed as an alternative to the common non-interactive multi-model ensembles in order to improve climate predictions. The connection terms in the interacting ensemble are to be optimized based on the data. The supermodel approach has been successfully demonstrated in a number of simulation experiments with an assumed ground truth and a set of good, but imperfect models. The supermodels were optimized with respect to their short-term prediction error...
December 2017: Chaos
Frank M Selten, Francine J Schevenhoven, Gregory S Duane
The SPEEDO global climate model (an atmosphere model coupled to a land and an ocean/sea-ice model with about 250.000 degrees of freedom) is used to investigate the merits of a new multi-model ensemble approach to the climate prediction problem in a perfect model setting. Two imperfect models are generated by perturbing parameters. Connection terms are introduced that synchronize the two models on a common solution, referred to as the supermodel solution. A synchronization-based learning algorithm is applied to the supermodel through the introduction of an update rule for the connection coefficients...
December 2017: Chaos
Andreas P Ahlstrøm, Dorthe Petersen, Peter L Langen, Michele Citterio, Jason E Box
The recent decades of accelerating mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet have arisen from an increase in both surface meltwater runoff and ice flow discharge from tidewater glaciers. Despite the role of the Greenland ice sheet as the dominant individual cryospheric contributor to sea level rise in recent decades, no observational record of its mass loss spans the 30-year period needed to assess its climatological state. We present for the first time a 40-year (1975-2014) time series of observed meltwater discharge from a >6500-km2 catchment of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet...
December 2017: Science Advances
Issoufou Ouedraogo, Pierre Defourny, Marnik Vanclooster
In this study, we assess the validity of an African-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrates. In a previous study, we identified a statistical continental-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrate. The model was identified using a pan-African meta-analysis of available nitrate groundwater pollution studies. The model was implemented in both Random Forest (RF) and multiple regression formats. For both approaches, we collected as predictors a comprehensive GIS database of 13 spatial attributes, related to land use, soil type, hydrogeology, topography, climatology, region typology, nitrogen fertiliser application rate, and population density...
December 11, 2017: Environmental Science and Pollution Research International
Shobini Sivagnanam, Dhruba J Sengupta, Daniel Hoogestraat, Rupali Jain, Zach Stednick, David N Fredricks, Paul Hendrie, Estella Whimbey, Sara T Podczervinski, Elizabeth M Krantz, Jeffrey S Duchin, Steven A Pergam
Background: Invasive Mucorales infections (IMI) lead to significant morbidity and mortality in immunocompromised hosts. The role of season and climatic conditions in case clustering of IMI remain poorly understood. Methods: Following detection of a cluster of sinopulmonary IMIs in patients with hematologic malignancies, we reviewed center-based medical records of all patients with IMIs and other invasive fungal infections (IFIs) between January of 2012 and August of 2015 to assess for case clustering in relation to seasonality...
2017: Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control
T V S Udaya Bhaskar, R Venkat Shesu, Timothy P Boyer, E Pattabhi Rama Rao
A new method of identifying anomalous oceanic temperature and salinity (T/S) data from Argo profiling floats is proposed. The proposed method uses World Ocean Database 2013 climatology to classify good against anomalous data by using convex hulls. An n-sided polygon (convex hull) with least area encompassing all the climatological points is constructed using Jarvis March algorithm. Subsequently Points In Polygon (PIP) principle implemented using ray casting algorithm is used to classify the T/S data as within or without acceptable bounds...
2017: MethodsX
Yunquan Zhang, Minjin Peng, Lu Wang, Chuanhua Yu
BACKGROUND: Diurnal temperature range (DTR) reflects within-day temperature variability and is closely associated with climate change. In comparison to temperature extremes, up-to-date DTR-health evidence at the regional and national scales has been still very limited worldwide, especially in Europe. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to provide nationwide estimates for DTR-associated effects on mortality, and explore whether season and regional-level characteristics modify DTR-mortality relation in United Kingdom...
November 15, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
Jeffrey Shaman, Sasikiran Kandula, Wan Yang, Alicia Karspeck
Laboratory and epidemiological evidence indicate that ambient humidity modulates the survival and transmission of influenza. Here we explore whether the inclusion of humidity forcing in mathematical models describing influenza transmission improves the accuracy of forecasts generated with those models. We generate retrospective forecasts for 95 cities over 10 seasons in the United States and assess both forecast accuracy and error. Overall, we find that humidity forcing improves forecast performance (at 1-4 lead weeks, 3...
November 16, 2017: PLoS Computational Biology
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