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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28070009/a-malaria-ecology-index-predicted-spatial-and-temporal-variation-of-malaria-burden-and-efficacy-of-antimalarial-interventions-based-on-african-serological-data
#1
Gordon C McCord, Jesse K Anttila-Hughes
Reducing the global health burden of malaria is complicated by weak reporting systems for infectious diseases and a paucity of vital statistics registration. This limits our ability to predict changes in malaria health burden intensity, target antimalarial resources where needed, and identify malaria impacts in retrospective data. We refined and deployed a temporally and spatially varying Malaria Ecology Index (MEI) incorporating climatological and ecological data to estimate malaria transmission strength and validate it against cross-sectional serology data from 39,875 children from seven sub-Saharan African countries...
January 9, 2017: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28039634/elemental-content-of-mosses-and-lichens-from-livingston-island-antarctica-as-determined-by-instrumental-neutron-activation-analysis-inaa
#2
Otilia A Culicov, Liliana Yurukova, Octavian G Duliu, Inga Zinicovscaia
The total content of 8 major and 32 trace elements in four species of mosses and two of lichens as well as neighboring soil and rocks collected from different places of the Livingston Island Antarctica was determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis. The main goals of the project consisted of evidencing the possible trace of anthropogenic contamination as well as the influence of altitude on the distribution of considered elements. In the absence of a unanimously accepted descriptor, enrichment factor, geo-accumulation, and pollution load indices with respect to soil and rocks were used...
December 30, 2016: Environmental Science and Pollution Research International
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28008213/the-surface-climatology-of-the-ross-ice-shelf-antarctica
#3
Carol A Costanza, Matthew A Lazzara, Linda M Keller, John J Cassano
The University of Wisconsin-Madison Antarctic Automatic Weather Station (AWS) project has been making meteorological surface observations on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) for approximately 30 years. This network offers the most continuous set of routine measurements of surface meteorological variables in this region. The Ross Island area is excluded from this study. The surface climate of the RIS is described using the AWS measurements. Temperature, pressure, and wind data are analysed on daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time periods for 13 AWS across the RIS...
December 2016: International Journal of Climatology: a Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28005955/vegetation-productivity-in-natural-vs-cultivated-systems-along-water-availability-gradients-in-the-dry-subtropics
#4
Germán Baldi, Marcos Texeira, Francisco Murray, Esteban G Jobbágy
The dry subtropics are subject to a rapid expansion of crops and pastures over vast areas of natural woodlands and savannas. In this paper, we explored the effect of this transformation on vegetation productivity (magnitude, and seasonal and long-term variability) along aridity gradients which span from semiarid to subhumid conditions, considering exclusively those areas with summer rains (>66%). Vegetation productivity was characterized with the proxy metric "Enhanced Vegetation Index" (EVI) (2000 to 2012 period), on 6186 natural and cultivated sampling points on five continents, and combined with a global climatology database by means of additive models for quantile regressions...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28000967/decrease-in-bovine-in-vitro-embryo-production-efficiency-during-winter-season-in-a-warm-summer-mediterranean-climate
#5
C Cheuquemán, P Loren, M Arias, J Risopatrón, R Felmer, J Álvarez, T Mogas, R Sánchez
Retrospective analysis of monthly embryo production from December 2011 to May 2015 and its correlation with meteorological data in our geographic zone was made. We had observed that in certain time of the year, in vitro blastocyst production decreases. Accordingly, was examined the association between blastocyst production and climatological parameters. Cleavage rates correlate positively with blastocyst rates (p < .05). Significant differences in cleavage rates between autumn and summer (79.8%; 71.5%), and between winter and autumn (71...
December 21, 2016: Andrologia
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27965394/perspectives-on-the-role-of-mobility-behavior-and-time-scales-in-the-spread-of-diseases
#6
Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Derdei Bichara, Benjamin R Morin
The dynamics, control, and evolution of communicable and vector-borne diseases are intimately connected to the joint dynamics of epidemiological, behavioral, and mobility processes that operate across multiple spatial, temporal, and organizational scales. The identification of a theoretical explanatory framework that accounts for the pattern regularity exhibited by a large number of host-parasite systems, including those sustained by host-vector epidemiological dynamics, is but one of the challenges facing the coevolving fields of computational, evolutionary, and theoretical epidemiology...
December 20, 2016: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27940643/marine-heatwaves-and-optimal-temperatures-for-microbial-assemblage-activity
#7
Ian Joint, Dan A Smale
The response of microbial assemblages to instantaneous temperature change was measured in a seasonal study of the coastal waters of the western English Channel. On 18 occasions between November 1999 and December 2000, bacterial abundance was assessed and temperature responses determined from the incorporation of (3)H leucine, measured in a temperature gradient from 5-38°C. Q10 values varied, being close to 2 in spring and summer but were >3 in autumn. There was a seasonal pattern in the assemblage optimum temperature (Topt), which was out of phase with sea surface temperature...
December 8, 2016: FEMS Microbiology Ecology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27903266/environmental-determinants-of-malaria-transmission-in-african-villages
#8
Noriko Endo, Elfatih A B Eltahir
BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission is complex, involving a range of hydroclimatological, biological, and environmental processes. The high degree of non-linearity in these processes makes it difficult to predict and intervene against malaria. This study seeks both to define a minimal number of malaria transmission determinants, and to provide a theoretical basis for sustainable environmental manipulation to prevent malaria transmission. METHODS: Using a field-tested mechanistic malaria model, HYDREMATS, a theoretical study was conducted under hypothetical conditions...
December 1, 2016: Malaria Journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27884523/the-anthroposphere-as-an-anticipatory-system-open-questions-on-steering-the-climate
#9
Rocco Scolozzi, Davide Geneletti
Climate change research and action counteracting it affect everyone and would involve cross-societal transformations reshaping the anthroposphere in its entirety. Scrutinizing climate-related science and policies, we recognize attempts to steer the evolution of climate according to expected (or modelled) futures. Such attempts would turn the anthroposphere into a large "anticipatory system", in which human society seeks to anticipate and, possibly, to govern climate dynamics. The chief aim of this discussion paper is to open a critical debate on the climate change paradigm (CCP) drawing on a strategic and systemic framework grounded in the concept of anticipatory system sensu Rosen (1991)...
February 1, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27875581/statistical-models-for-tornado-climatology-long-and-short-term-views
#10
James B Elsner, Thomas H Jagger, Tyler Fricker
This paper estimates regional tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over time. Results provide a long-term view of risk that delineates the main tornado corridors in the United States where the expected annual rate exceeds two tornadoes per 10,000 square km. A few counties in the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas have annual rates that exceed four tornadoes per 10,000 square km...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27869386/prediction-of-the-respiratory-syncitial-virus-epidemic-using-climate-variables-in-bogot%C3%A3-d-c
#11
Gilberto González-Parra, José F Querales, Diego Aranda
lntroduction: The respiratory syncitial virus is one of the most common causes of mortality in children and older adults in the world. Objective: To predict the initial week of outbreaks and to establish the most relevant climate variables using naive Bayes classifiers and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). Materials and methods: The initial dates of the outbreaks in children less than five years old for the period 2005-2010 were obtained for Bogotá, Colombia. We selected the climatological variables using a correlation matrix and we constructed 1,020 models using different climatological variables and data from different weeks previous to the initial outbreak...
September 1, 2016: Biomédica: Revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27867786/aerosol-lidar-observations-of-atmospheric-mixing-in-los-angeles-climatology-and-implications-for-greenhouse-gas-observations
#12
John Ware, Eric A Kort, Phil DeCola, Riley Duren
Atmospheric observations of greenhouse gases provide essential information on sources and sinks of these key atmospheric constituents. To quantify fluxes from atmospheric observations, representation of transport-especially vertical mixing-is a necessity and often a source of error. We report on remotely sensed profiles of vertical aerosol distribution taken over a 2 year period in Pasadena, California. Using an automated analysis system, we estimate daytime mixing layer depth, achieving high confidence in the afternoon maximum on 51% of days with profiles from a Sigma Space Mini Micropulse LiDAR (MiniMPL) and on 36% of days with a Vaisala CL51 ceilometer...
August 27, 2016: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres: JGR
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27849587/wind-speed-reductions-by-large-scale-wind-turbine-deployments-lower-turbine-efficiencies-and-set-low-generation-limits
#13
Lee M Miller, Axel Kleidon
Wind turbines generate electricity by removing kinetic energy from the atmosphere. Large numbers of wind turbines are likely to reduce wind speeds, which lowers estimates of electricity generation from what would be presumed from unaffected conditions. Here, we test how well wind power limits that account for this effect can be estimated without explicitly simulating atmospheric dynamics. We first use simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) that explicitly simulates the effects of wind turbines to derive wind power limits (GCM estimate), and compare them to a simple approach derived from the climatological conditions without turbines [vertical kinetic energy (VKE) estimate]...
November 29, 2016: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27834368/more-frequent-intense-and-long-lived-storms-dominate-the-springtime-trend-in-central-us-rainfall
#14
Zhe Feng, L Ruby Leung, Samson Hagos, Robert A Houze, Casey D Burleyson, Karthik Balaguru
The changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in the central United States are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largest type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs...
November 11, 2016: Nature Communications
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27832866/effects-of-landscape-composition-and-pattern-on-land-surface-temperature-an-urban-heat-island-study-in-the-megacities-of-southeast-asia
#15
Ronald C Estoque, Yuji Murayama, Soe W Myint
Due to its adverse impacts on urban ecological environment and the overall livability of cities, the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon has become a major research focus in various interrelated fields, including urban climatology, urban ecology, urban planning, and urban geography. This study sought to examine the relationship between land surface temperature (LST) and the abundance and spatial pattern of impervious surface and green space in the metropolitan areas of Bangkok (Thailand), Jakarta (Indonesia), and Manila (Philippines)...
January 15, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27832108/the-differential-warming-response-of-britain-s-rivers-1982-2011
#16
Art R T Jonkers, Kieran J Sharkey
River water temperature is a hydrological feature primarily controlled by topographical, meteorological, climatological, and anthropogenic factors. For Britain, the study of freshwater temperatures has focussed mainly on observations made in England and Wales; similar comprehensive data sets for Scotland are currently unavailable. Here we present a model for the whole of mainland Britain over three recent decades (1982-2011) that incorporates geographical extrapolation to Scotland. The model estimates daily mean freshwater temperature for every river segment and for any day in the studied period, based upon physico-geographical features, daily mean air and sea temperatures, and available freshwater temperature measurements...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27818852/accuracy-of-short-term-sea-ice-drift-forecasts-using-a-coupled-ice-ocean-model
#17
Axel J Schweiger, Jinlun Zhang
Arctic sea ice drift forecasts of 6 h-9 days for the summer of 2014 are generated using the Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS); the model is driven by 6 h atmospheric forecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2). Forecast ice drift speed is compared to drifting buoys and other observational platforms. Forecast positions are compared with actual positions 24 h-8 days since forecast. Forecast results are further compared to those from the forecasts generated using an ice velocity climatology driven by multiyear integrations of the same model...
December 2015: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27812298/mixture-emos-model-for-calibrating-ensemble-forecasts-of-wind-speed
#18
S Baran, S Lerch
Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a statistical tool for post-processing forecast ensembles of weather variables obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models in order to produce calibrated predictive probability density functions. The EMOS predictive probability density function is given by a parametric distribution with parameters depending on the ensemble forecasts. We propose an EMOS model for calibrating wind speed forecasts based on weighted mixtures of truncated normal (TN) and log-normal (LN) distributions where model parameters and component weights are estimated by optimizing the values of proper scoring rules over a rolling training period...
March 2016: Environmetrics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27799528/enhanced-intensity-of-global-tropical-cyclones-during-the-mid-pliocene-warm-period
#19
Qing Yan, Ting Wei, Robert L Korty, James P Kossin, Zhongshi Zhang, Huijun Wang
Given the threats that tropical cyclones (TC) pose to people and infrastructure, there is significant interest in how the climatology of these storms may change with climate. The global historical record has been extensively examined, but it is short and plagued with recurring questions about its homogeneity, limiting its effectiveness at assessing how TCs vary with climate. Past warm intervals provide an opportunity to quantify TC behavior in a warmer-than-present world. Here, we use a TC-resolving (∼25 km) global atmospheric model to investigate TC activity during the mid-Pliocene warm period (3...
November 15, 2016: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27790992/hurricane-sandy-s-flood-frequency-increasing-from-year-1800-to-2100
#20
Ning Lin, Robert E Kopp, Benjamin P Horton, Jeffrey P Donnelly
Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4...
October 25, 2016: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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