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"base rates"

Stephanie M Morris, Maria T Acosta, Shruti Garg, Jonathan Green, Susan Huson, Eric Legius, Kathryn N North, Jonathan M Payne, Ellen Plasschaert, Thomas W Frazier, Lauren A Weiss, Yi Zhang, David H Gutmann, John N Constantino
Importance: Recent reports have demonstrated a higher incidence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and substantially elevated autistic trait burden in individuals with neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1). However, important discrepancies regarding the distribution of autistic traits, sex predominance, and association between ASD symptoms and attentional problems have emerged, and critical features of the ASD phenotype within NF1 have never been adequately explored. Establishing NF1 as a monogenic cause for ASD has important implications for affected patients and for future research focused on establishing convergent pathogenic mechanisms relevant to the potential treatment targets for ASD...
October 19, 2016: JAMA Psychiatry
Benjamin Margolin Rottman
Whether humans can accurately make decisions in line with Bayes' rule has been one of the most important yet contentious topics in cognitive psychology. Though a number of paradigms have been used for studying Bayesian updating, rarely have subjects been allowed to use their own preexisting beliefs about the prior and the likelihood. A study is reported in which physicians judged the posttest probability of a diagnosis for a patient vignette after receiving a test result, and the physicians' posttest judgments were compared to the normative posttest calculated from their own beliefs in the sensitivity and false positive rate of the test (likelihood ratio) and prior probability of the diagnosis...
October 17, 2016: Memory & Cognition
Jeremy W Luk, Matthew J Worley, Evan Winiger, Ryan S Trim, Christian J Hopfer, John K Hewitt, Sandra A Brown, Tamara L Wall
PURPOSE: To examine the associations between substance use and antisocial behavior trajectories and seven risky behaviors over time. METHOD: Data were collected from a high-risk sample of adolescents followed into young adulthood. Five trajectory classes, identified based on dual development of substance use and antisocial behavior symptoms, were used to predict three risky driving and four risky sexual behaviors. RESULTS: In this high-risk sample (n=530), participants reported notably high overall rates of reckless driving (55...
October 11, 2016: Drug and Alcohol Dependence
Emily Moulton, Kathryn Bradbury, Marianne Barton, Deborah Fein
The Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS), (Schopler et al. in J Autism Dev Disord 10(1):91-103, 1980) is a 15-item observation-based rating scale that yields a total score reflective of autism symptom severity. This study investigated the factor structure of the CARS in a sample of 2-year-old children with DSM-IV-TR (American Psychiatric Association in Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, 4th edn. American Psychiatric Publishing, Washington, 2000) diagnoses of AD or PDD-NOS. Following a preliminary internal cross-validation, principal axis factor analysis was completed (N = 282)...
October 14, 2016: Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders
Andrew Dillon, Ladislav Timulak, Leslie S Greenberg
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the pattern of change in emotional states over a course of emotion-focused therapy using the model of sequential emotional processing as an initial framework for analysis. METHOD: This was a single case study observational design examining 15 sessions of therapy with one client. A qualitative analysis of moment-to-moment shifts in client emotional events was conducted. This conceptualised the interplay between experienced emotions using the sequential emotional processing model as an interpretative framework...
October 11, 2016: Psychotherapy Research: Journal of the Society for Psychotherapy Research
Tanya N Antonini, Stacey S Beer, Tamir Miloh, William J Dreyer, Susan E Caudle
OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to review the current literature on neuropsychological functioning in two groups of children requiring organ transplants (liver or heart) and present recent clinical data collected through the liver and cardiac transplantation programs at a large pediatric academic medical center. METHOD: Data included in this study came from 18 patients who completed evaluations for heart transplant (n = 8) or liver transplant (n = 10) between the ages of 2 and 6 years (inclusive)...
October 11, 2016: Clinical Neuropsychologist
Eric S Daniel, Anastasia E Dean, Mingjoe Lim, Mobin Master, Peter Gibbs, Ian Faragher
BACKGROUND: Studies have suggested a benefit from extended venous thromboprophylaxis post-operatively in colorectal cancer with an assumed base rate of zero venous thromboembolic events prior to treatment. We aim to establish the incidence of pulmonary embolism in patients with newly diagnosed stage III or IV colorectal cancer prior to any treatment. METHOD: Consecutive patients presenting to a single health service with a new diagnosis of stage III or IV colorectal cancer were identified from a prospective database, for the period between January 2011 and September 2014...
October 9, 2016: ANZ Journal of Surgery
Carlos Alós-Ferrer, Michele Garagnani, Sabine Hügelschäfer
We present novel evidence on response times and personality traits in standard questions from the decision-making literature where responses are relatively slow (medians around half a minute or above). To this end, we measured response times in a number of incentivized, framed items (decisions from description) including the Cognitive Reflection Test, two additional questions following the same logic, and a number of classic questions used to study decision biases in probability judgments (base-rate neglect, the conjunction fallacy, and the ratio bias)...
2016: Frontiers in Psychology
Jason D Jones, J Cobb Scott, Monica E Calkins, Kosha Ruparel, Tyler M Moore, Ruben C Gur, Raquel E Gur
Inclusion of collateral informant reports is common in adolescent psychopathology research and clinical assessment, yet few studies have examined agreement on ratings of adolescent substance use or factors that may be associated with reporter agreement. The present study aimed to extend prior work on the correspondence between adolescent and informant reports of adolescent substance use with data from a large (n=5214), diverse, community-based sample of youth aged 11-17 (mean age=14.53, SD=1.98; 52% female)...
September 22, 2016: Addictive Behaviors
Sung-Shin Cho, Jin Hyun Joh, Hyung-Joon Ahn, Ho-Chul Park
Stroke imposes a substantial clinical and socioeconomic burden. Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) or carotid artery stenting (CAS) are proven procedures in stroke prevention for the lesions of extracranial carotid disease. Although several studies have addressed national trends regarding carotid revascularization in Western countries, limited data is available with respect to the Korean population. The aim of the present study was to identify the national trend in carotid revascularization in Korea over the previous decade...
October 2016: Experimental and Therapeutic Medicine
Etienne Gaudrain, John M Deeks, Robert P Carlyon
Cochlear implants (CIs) convey fundamental-frequency information using primarily temporal cues. However, temporal pitch perception in CI users is weak and, when measured using rate discrimination tasks, deteriorates markedly as the rate increases beyond 300 pulses-per-second. Rate pitch may be weak because the electrical stimulation of the surviving neural population of the implant recipient may not allow accurate coding of inter-pulse time intervals. If so, this phenomenon should prevent listeners from detecting when a pulse train is physically temporally jittered...
September 29, 2016: Journal of the Association for Research in Otolaryngology: JARO
Brian L Brooks, James A Holdnack, Grant L Iverson
OBJECTIVE: The rate at which people obtain reliably improved or declined cognitive test scores when retested, in the absence of a change in clinical condition, is largely unknown. The purpose of this study was to illustrate the prevalence of statistically reliable change scores on memory test batteries in healthy adults and older adults. METHOD: Participants included three adult and older adult test-retest samples from memory test batteries. Reliable change scores (reliable change index with 90% confidence interval and practice effects) were calculated for the indexes and subtests of each battery...
September 27, 2016: Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology: the Official Journal of the National Academy of Neuropsychologists
E Spagnuolo, S Nielsen, M Violay, G Di Toro
Empirically based rate-and-state friction laws (RSFLs) have been proposed to model the dependence of friction forces with slip and time. The relevance of the RSFL for earthquake mechanics is that few constitutive parameters define critical conditions for fault stability (i.e., critical stiffness and frictional fault behavior). However, the RSFLs were determined from experiments conducted at subseismic slip rates (V < 1 cm/s), and their extrapolation to earthquake deformation conditions (V > 0...
April 16, 2016: Geophysical Research Letters
Yeunjoo Chung, Elizabeth L Jeglic
Detecting suicide risk among nonclinical populations is challenging due to low base rates and the help-negation tendency of at-risk individuals. The current longitudinal study investigated the predictive validity of the modified emotional Stroop task (EST) by conducting a follow-up study of 197 students who participated in a study by Chung and Jeglic (2016). The EST latencies for suicide-related cues and past suicidal behaviors were the only significant predictors of suicide risk. The findings of this study provide preliminary support for the use of the EST as part of a suicide risk screening battery that could add to the detection of suicide risk...
September 23, 2016: Suicide & Life-threatening Behavior
Martin Emmert, Nina Meszmer, Uwe Sander
BACKGROUND: Physician-rating websites have become a popular tool to create more transparency about the quality of health care providers. So far, it remains unknown whether online-based rating websites have the potential to contribute to a better standard of care. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to examine which health care providers use online rating websites and for what purposes, and whether health care providers use online patient ratings to improve patient care. METHODS: We conducted an online-based cross-sectional study by surveying 2360 physicians and other health care providers (September 2015)...
2016: Journal of Medical Internet Research
Alexander Persoskie, Rebecca A Ferrer
INTRODUCTION: The OR is one of the most commonly used measures of association in preventive medicine, and yet it is unintuitive and easily misinterpreted by journal authors and readers. METHODS: This article describes correct interpretations of ORs, explains how ORs are different from risk ratios (RRs), and notes potential supplements and alternatives to the presentation of ORs that may help readers avoid confusion about the strength of associations. RESULTS: ORs are often interpreted as though they have the same meaning as RRs (i...
September 14, 2016: American Journal of Preventive Medicine
Kostas Zygogiannis, Daniel Wismeijer, Azin Parsa
PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of immediately loaded mini dental implants (MDIs) used to support mandibular overdentures on the peri-implant bone level as well as patients' related levels of satisfaction and quality of life. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Four MDIs were placed in the interforaminal region of 10 completely edentulous patients, and the implants were loaded immediately (same day) with an overdenture. Radiographic assessment of the bone loss during a period of 18 months was performed by measuring the bone level changes at the mesial and distal aspects of each implant on panoramic radiographs...
September 2016: International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants
Meta van Toutert, Han Diesfeldt, Dirk Hoek
The six tests in the Amsterdam Dementia Screening Test (ADST) examine the cognitive domains of episodic memory (delayed picture recognition, word learning), orientation, category fluency (animals and occupations), constructional ability (figure copying) and executive function (alternating sequences). New normative data were collected in a sample of 102 elderly volunteers (aged 65-94), including subjects with medical or other health conditions, except dementia or frank cognitive impairment (MMSE > 24). Included subjects were independent in complex instrumental activities of daily living...
September 15, 2016: Tijdschrift Voor Gerontologie en Geriatrie
Ding Zou, Ivan B Djordjevic
In this paper, we propose a rate-adaptive FEC scheme based on LDPC codes together with its software reconfigurable unified FPGA architecture. By FPGA emulation, we demonstrate that the proposed class of rate-adaptive LDPC codes based on shortening with an overhead from 25% to 42.9% provides a coding gain ranging from 13.08 dB to 14.28 dB at a post-FEC BER of 10<sup>-15</sup> for BPSK transmission. In addition, the proposed rate-adaptive LDPC coding combined with higher-order modulations have been demonstrated including QPSK, 8-QAM, 16-QAM, 32-QAM, and 64-QAM, which covers a wide range of signal-to-noise ratios...
September 5, 2016: Optics Express
B N Roberts, R H Bailey, M R McLaughlin, J P Brooks
AIMS: The purpose of this study was to establish inactivation decay constants of foodborne pathogens and coliphage in clay and sandy soils for future "downstream" analyses such as quantitative microbial risk analysis and to compare cultivation-dependent and -independent (e.g. qPCR) methods. METHODS AND RESULTS: Salmonella enterica, Campylobacter jejuni, Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Clostridium perfringens, were seeded together with MS2 and ØX174 phages, into three waste matrices (Class B biosolids, swine lagoon effluent, cattle manure), and phosphate buffered saline (PBS) as a control, and applied to two soil types (sandy loam, clay loam) using two management practices (incorporated, surface applied)...
August 29, 2016: Science of the Total Environment
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