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" base rates" " likelihood ratio"

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27752962/physician-bayesian-updating-from-personal-beliefs-about-the-base-rate-and-likelihood-ratio
#1
Benjamin Margolin Rottman
Whether humans can accurately make decisions in line with Bayes' rule has been one of the most important yet contentious topics in cognitive psychology. Though a number of paradigms have been used for studying Bayesian updating, rarely have subjects been allowed to use their own preexisting beliefs about the prior and the likelihood. A study is reported in which physicians judged the posttest probability of a diagnosis for a patient vignette after receiving a test result, and the physicians' posttest judgments were compared to the normative posttest calculated from their own beliefs in the sensitivity and false positive rate of the test (likelihood ratio) and prior probability of the diagnosis...
October 17, 2016: Memory & Cognition
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26347676/bayesian-probability-estimates-are-not-necessary-to-make-choices-satisfying-bayes-rule-in-elementary-situations
#2
Artur Domurat, Olga Kowalczuk, Katarzyna Idzikowska, Zuzanna Borzymowska, Marta Nowak-Przygodzka
This paper has two aims. First, we investigate how often people make choices conforming to Bayes' rule when natural sampling is applied. Second, we show that using Bayes' rule is not necessary to make choices satisfying Bayes' rule. Simpler methods, even fallacious heuristics, might prescribe correct choices reasonably often under specific circumstances. We considered elementary situations with binary sets of hypotheses and data. We adopted an ecological approach and prepared two-stage computer tasks resembling natural sampling...
2015: Frontiers in Psychology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/24549687/efficacy-of-combining-interview-techniques-in-detecting-deception-related-to-bio-threat-issues
#3
RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL
Charles A Morgan, Yaron Rabinowitz, Robert Leidy, Vladimir Coric
The purpose of this project was to assess the detecting deception efficacy of three well-validated "detecting deception" methods - i.e., forced choice testing (FCT), modified cognitive interviewing (MCI) and autobiographical implicit association testing (aIAT) - when applied to the issue of bio-threat. The detecting deception accuracies of FCT and MCI were 81% and 75%, respectively. Although the aIAT mean response times in block 5 differed significantly between deceptive and truthful persons, the classification accuracy was low...
May 2014: Behavioral Sciences & the Law
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/23730741/test-of-memory-malingering-cutoff-scores-for-psychometrically-defined-malingering-groups-in-a-military-sample
#4
Alvin Jones
This research examined cutoffs for the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM) in a military sample composed primarily of mTBI patients. The results are consistent with previous research and provide additional evidence that cutoffs higher than those originally recommended for the TOMM can produce excellent classification and diagnostic statistics when a psychometrically defined non-malingering group is compared with three psychometrically defined malingering groups: Probable, Probable to Definite, and Definite Malingering...
2013: Clinical Neuropsychologist
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/22683287/diagnostic-utility-of-the-structured-inventory-of-malingered-symptomatology-for-identifying-psychogenic-non-epileptic-events
#5
Jared F Benge, Nick M Wisdom, Robert L Collins, Romay Franks, Ashley Lemaire, David K Chen
The Structured Interview of Malingered Symptomatology (SIMS) is a self-report instrument that asks patients whether they experience atypical or implausible symptoms. The instrument has not been evaluated in an epilepsy population, and the potential for it to accurately distinguish between patients with psychogenic non-epileptic events (PNEE) and epileptic event groups has not been established. The SIMS was administered to patients in long-term video-EEG monitoring of these patients, 91 with PNEE and 29 with epilepsy were included in this study...
August 2012: Epilepsy & Behavior: E&B
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/20421612/extending-use-of-the-nrt-to-preschool-age-children-with-and-without-specific-language-impairment
#6
Patricia Deevy, Lisa Wisman Weil, Laurence B Leonard, Lisa Goffman
PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the Nonword Repetition Test (NRT; Dollaghan & Campbell, 1998) using a sample of 4- and 5-year-olds with and without specific language impairment (SLI) and to evaluate its feasibility for use in universal screening. METHOD: The NRT was administered to 29 children with SLI and 47 age-matched children with typical development. Diagnostic accuracy was computed using alternative scoring methods, which treated out-of-inventory phonemes either as errors or as unscorable...
July 2010: Language, Speech, and Hearing Services in Schools
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/20061185/the-minnesota-multiphasic-personality-inventory-2-restructured-form-in-the-epilepsy-monitoring-unit
#7
Dona E C Locke, Kristin A Kirlin, Michael L Thomas, David Osborne, Duane F Hurst, Joseph F Drazkowski, Joseph I Sirven, Katherine H Noe
The Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) is a restructuring of the MMPI-2 that has improved the psychometric characteristics of the test. The primary aim of this study was to provide diagnostic utility data on the MMPI-2-RF in an epilepsy monitoring unit population (N=429). Mean comparisons revealed group differences on Validity Scales Fs and FBS-r; Restructured Clinical Scales RC1 and RC3; and Somatic Scales MLS, GIC, HPC, and NUC. Diagnostic utility data are provided for those scales with the largest effect sizes: RC1, FBS-r, and NUC...
February 2010: Epilepsy & Behavior: E&B
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/19883993/toward-improved-ecological-validity-in-the-acoustic-measurement-of-overall-voice-quality-combining-continuous-speech-and-sustained-vowels
#8
Youri Maryn, Paul Corthals, Paul Van Cauwenberge, Nelson Roy, Marc De Bodt
To improve ecological validity, perceptual and instrumental assessment of disordered voice, including overall voice quality, should ideally sample both sustained vowels and continuous speech. This investigation assessed the utility of combining both voice contexts for the purpose of auditory-perceptual ratings as well as acoustic measurement of overall voice quality. Sustained vowel and continuous speech samples from 251 subjects with (n=229) or without (n=22) various voice disorders were concatenated and perceptually rated on overall voice quality by five experienced voice clinicians...
September 2010: Journal of Voice: Official Journal of the Voice Foundation
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/19635177/the-diagnostic-utility-of-multiple-level-likelihood-ratios
#9
Stephen C Bowden, David W Loring
Clinicians are accustomed to interpreting diagnostic test scores in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Many clinicians also appreciate that sensitivity and specificity need to be interpreted in terms of local base rates (i.e., pretest probability). However, most neuropsychological tests contain a wide range of scores. Important diagnostic information may be sacrificed when valid test scores are reduced to the simple dichotomy of "positive" or "negative" diagnosis that underlies sensitivity and specificity analysis...
September 2009: Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society: JINS
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/18812206/an-integrated-psychobiological-predictive-model-of-emergent-psychopathology-among-young-relatives-at-risk-for-schizophrenia
#10
Shaun M Eack, Konasale M R Prasad, Debra M Montrose, Dhruman D Goradia, Diana Dworakowski, Jean Miewald, Matcheri S Keshavan
OBJECTIVE: Studies of young relatives at elevated risk for schizophrenia have pointed to the importance of a variety of neurobiological, cognitive, and clinical risk factors for the disorder; yet few have employed integrated models to estimate the joint contribution of these factors to heightened schizophrenic risk. We tested the predictive power of an integrated psychobiological model of schizophrenia risk to subsequent psychopathology development among young relatives at risk for the disorder...
December 12, 2008: Progress in Neuro-psychopharmacology & Biological Psychiatry
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/17886147/aggregation-across-multiple-indicators-improves-the-detection-of-malingering-relationship-to-likelihood-ratios
#11
Glenn J Larrabee
Recent literature shows that aggregating across multiple symptom validity test (SVT) failures increases the probability of malingering over use of one indicator alone, supporting the criteria proposed by Slick, Sherman, and Iverson (1999) that require multiple sources of evidence for diagnosis of malingering. The present study reanalyzes with likelihood ratios data previously published by Larrabee (2003a) on litigants with definite malingering, contrasted with non-malingering patients with moderate and severe traumatic brain injury...
July 2008: Clinical Neuropsychologist
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/17276652/the-latent-structure-of-cognitive-symptom-exaggeration-on-the-victoria-symptom-validity-test
#12
Thomas W Frazier, Eric A Youngstrom, Richard I Naugle, Kathryn A Haggerty, Robyn M Busch
Previous studies have focused on the ability of cognitive symptom validity tests to identify simulated malingering or distinguish between clinical samples of individuals at low or high risk of cognitive symptom exaggeration. However, no published studies have examined the latent structure of negative response bias on cognitive tests: measures of cognitive symptom exaggeration may evaluate a continuum of poor effort/invalid responding or a dichotomy of adequate versus inadequate effort. The present study examined whether Victoria Symptom Validity Test (VSVT) indices evaluate a latent dimension or category of response distortion...
February 2007: Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology: the Official Journal of the National Academy of Neuropsychologists
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/14724962/the-misquantification-of-probative-value
#13
COMMENT
D H Kaye, Jonathan J Koehler
D. Davis and W. C. Follette (2002) purport to show that when "the base rate" for a crime is low, the probative value of "characteristics known to be strongly associated with the crime ... will be virtually nil." Their analysis rests on the choice of an arbitrary and inopposite measure of the probative value of evidence. When a more suitable metric is used (e.g., a likelihood ratio), it becomes clear that evidence they would dismiss as devoid of probative value is relevant and diagnostic.
December 2003: Law and Human Behavior
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/14638445/diagnosing-tests-using-and-misusing-diagnostic-and-screening-tests
#14
David L Streiner
Tests can be used either diagnostically (i.e., to confirm or rule out the presence of a condition in people suspected of having it) or as a screening instrument (determining who in a large group of people has the condition and often when those people are unaware of it or unwilling to admit to it). Tests that may be useful and accurate for diagnosis may actually do more harm than good when used as a screening instrument. The reason is that the proportion of false negatives may be high when the prevalence is high, and the proportion of false positives tends to be high when the prevalence of the condition is low (the usual situation with screening tests)...
December 2003: Journal of Personality Assessment
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