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Global Change Biology

Rachel A Hovel, Stephanie M Carlson, Thomas P Quinn
High-latitude lakes are particularly sensitive to the effects of global climate change, demonstrating earlier ice breakup, longer ice-free seasons, and increased water temperatures. Such physical changes have implications for diverse life-history traits in taxa across entire lake food webs. Here, we use a five-decade time series from an Alaskan lake to explore effects of climate change on growth and reproduction of a widely distributed lacustrine fish, the three-spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models to describe trends in the mean length for multiple size classes and to explore the influence of physical (date of ice breakup, surface water temperature) and biological (density of con- and heterospecifics) factors...
November 30, 2016: Global Change Biology
Yanjie Liu, Ayub M O Oduor, Zhen Zhang, Anthony Manea, Ifeanna M Tooth, Michelle R Leishman, Xingliang Xu, Mark van Kleunen
Invasive alien plant species threaten native biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem functions, and can cause large economic damage. Plant invasions have been predicted to further increase under ongoing global environmental change. Numerous case studies have compared the performance of invasive and native plant species in response to global environmental change components (i.e. changes in mean levels of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration or nitrogen deposition). Individually these studies usually involve low numbers of species and therefore the results cannot be generalized...
November 26, 2016: Global Change Biology
Gavin McNicol, Cove S Sturtevant, Sara H Knox, Iryna Dronova, Dennis D Baldocchi, Whendee L Silver
Wetlands can influence global climate via greenhouse gas (GHG) exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4 ), and nitrous oxide (N2 O). Few studies have quantified the full GHG budget of wetlands due to the high spatial and temporal variability of fluxes. We report annual open-water diffusion and ebullition fluxes of CO2 , CH4 , and N2 O from a restored emergent marsh ecosystem. We combined these data with concurrent eddy-covariance measurements of whole-ecosystem CO2 and CH4 exchange to estimate GHG fluxes and associated radiative forcing effects for the whole wetland, and separately for open-water and vegetated cover types...
November 26, 2016: Global Change Biology
Elena Pellizzari, J Julio Camarero, Antonio Gazol, Elena Granda, Rohan Shetti, Martin Wilmking, Pavel Moiseev, Mario Pividori, Marco Carrer
Climate warming is expected to enhance productivity and growth of woody plants, particularly in temperature-limited environments at the northernmost or uppermost limits of their distribution. However, this warming is spatially uneven and temporally variable, and the rise in temperatures differently affects biomes and growth forms. Here, applying a dendroecological approach with generalized additive mixed models, we analysed how the growth of shrubby junipers and coexisting trees (larch and pine species) responds to rising temperatures along a 5000-km latitudinal range including sites from the Polar, Alpine to the Mediterranean biomes...
November 25, 2016: Global Change Biology
James W Morley, Ryan D Batt, Malin L Pinsky
Even species within the same assemblage have varied responses to climate change, and there is a poor understanding for why some taxa are more sensitive to climate than others. In addition, multiple mechanisms can drive species' responses, and responses may be specific to certain life stages or times of year. To test how marine species respond to climate variability, we analyzed 73 diverse taxa off the southeast U.S. coast in 26 years of scientific trawl survey data and determined how changes in distribution and biomass relate to temperature...
November 25, 2016: Global Change Biology
Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero, Jean-Baptiste Lamy, Alexis Ducousso, Brigitte Musch, François Ehrenmann, Sylvain Delzon, Stephen Cavers, Władysław Chałupka, Said Dağdaş, Jon Kehlet Hansen, Steve J Lee, Mirko Liesebach, Hans-Martin Rau, Achilleas Psomas, Volker Schneck, Wilfried Steiner, Niklaus E Zimmermann, Antoine Kremer
How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150,000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (1) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection versus plastic responses to ongoing climate change), (2) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses...
November 25, 2016: Global Change Biology
Mathieu Floury, Philippe Usseglio-Polatera, Cecile Delattre, Yves Souchon
Although species traits have the potential to disentangle long-term effects of multiple, potentially confounded, drivers in ecosystems, this issue has received very little attention in the literature. We aimed at filling this gap by assessing the relative effects of hydroclimatic and water quality factors on the trait composition of invertebrate assemblages over 30 years in the Middle Loire River (France). Using a priori predictions on the long-term variation of trait-based adaptations over the three decades, we evaluated the ability of invertebrate traits to indicate the effects of warming, discharge reduction and water quality improvement...
November 22, 2016: Global Change Biology
Tatenda Dalu, Ryan J Wasserman, Mwazvita T B Dalu
Ephemeral wetlands in arid regions are often degraded or destroyed through poor land-use practice long before they are ever studied or prioritized for conservation. Climate change will likely also have implications for these ecosystems given forecast changes in rainfall patterns in many arid environments. Here, we present a conceptual diagram showing typical and modified ephemeral wetlands in agricultural landscapes and how modification impacts on species diversity and composition.
November 21, 2016: Global Change Biology
Daniel Nelson, Jonathan P Benstead, Alexander D Huryn, Wyatt F Cross, James M Hood, Philip W Johnson, James R Junker, Gísli M Gíslason, Jón S Ólafsson
How ecological communities respond to predicted increases in temperature will determine the extent to which Earth's biodiversity and ecosystem functioning can be maintained into a warmer future. Warming is predicted to alter the structure of natural communities, but robust tests of such predictions require appropriate large-scale manipulations of intact, natural habitat that is open to dispersal processes via exchange with regional species pools. Here we report results of a two-year whole-stream warming experiment that shifted invertebrate assemblage structure via unanticipated mechanisms, while still conforming to community-level metabolic theory...
November 21, 2016: Global Change Biology
Peter van der Sleen, Peter Groenendijk, Mart Vlam, Niels P R Anten, Frans Bongers, Pieter A Zuidema
In a recent Opinion article, Brienen et al (2016) raise doubts about our finding that tropical tree growth has not increased during 150 years of CO2 rise (Groenendijk et al., 2015, van der Sleen et al., 2015). They claim that our tree-ring data contain evidence for historical growth stimulation that was concealed due to failing regeneration in several species. Here we show that (1) the correction method proposed by Brienen et al. induces a bias towards finding positive growth trends, (2) the results of Brienen et al...
November 19, 2016: Global Change Biology
Venkatraman Srinivasan, Praveen Kumar, Stephen P Long
Without new innovations, present rates of increase in yields of food crops globally are inadequate to meet the projected rising food demand for 2050 and beyond. A prevailing response of crops to rising [CO2 ] is an increase in leaf area. This is especially marked in soybean, the world's fourth largest food crop in terms of seed production, and the most important vegetable protein source. Is this increase in leaf area beneficial, with respect to increasing yield, or is it detrimental? It is shown from theory and experiment using open-air whole-season elevation of atmospheric [CO2 ] that it is detrimental not only under future conditions of elevated [CO2 ] but also under today's [CO2 ]...
November 17, 2016: Global Change Biology
Marta A Jarzyna, Walter Jetz
Assessments of spatial patterns of biodiversity change are essential to detect a signature of anthropogenic impacts, inform monitoring and conservation programs, and evaluate implications of biodiversity loss to humans. While taxonomic diversity (TD) is the most commonly assessed attribute of biodiversity, it misses the potential functional or phylogenetic implications of species losses or gains for ecosystems. Functional (FD) and phylogenetic (PD) diversity are able to capture these important trait-based and phylogenetic attributes of species, but their changes have to date only been evaluated over limited spatial and temporal extents...
November 17, 2016: Global Change Biology
Juan Diego Ibáñez-Álamo, Enrique Rubio, Yanina Benedetti, Federico Morelli
Urbanization, one of the most important anthropogenic impacts on Earth, is rapidly expanding worldwide. This expansion of urban land-covered areas is known to significantly reduce different components of biodiversity. However, the global evidence for this effect are mainly focused on a single diversity measure (species richness) with a few local or regional studies also supporting reductions in functional diversity. We have used birds, an important ecological group that has been used as surrogate for other animals, to investigate the hypothesis that urbanization reduces the global taxonomical and/or evolutionary diversity...
November 17, 2016: Global Change Biology
Kai Yue, Dario A Fornara, Wanqin Yang, Yan Peng, Zhijie Li, Fuzhong Wu, Changhui Peng
Over the last few decades there has been an increasing number of controlled-manipulative experiments to investigate how plants and soils might respond to global change. These experiments typically examined the effects of each of three global change drivers (i.e. nitrogen (N) deposition, warming, and elevated CO2 ) on primary productivity and on the biogeochemistry of carbon (C), N and phosphorus (P) across different terrestrial ecosystems. Here we capitalize on this large amount of information by performing a comprehensive meta-analysis (>2000 case studies worldwide) to address how C:N:P stoichiometry of plants, soils and soil microbial biomass might respond to individual vs...
November 17, 2016: Global Change Biology
Michael J Case, Joshua J Lawler
Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate-driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America...
November 17, 2016: Global Change Biology
Andrew P Scafaro, Shuang Xiang, Benedict M Long, Nur H A Bahar, Lasantha K Weerasinghe, Danielle Creek, John R Evans, Peter B Reich, Owen K Atkin
Understanding of the extent of acclimation of light-saturated net photosynthesis (An ) to temperature (T), and associated underlying mechanisms, remains limited. This is a key knowledge gap given the importance of thermal acclimation for plant functioning, both under current and future higher temperatures, limiting the accuracy and realism of Earth System Model (ESM) predictions. Given this, we analysed and modelled T-dependent changes in photosynthetic capacity in 10 wet-forest tree species; six from temperate forests and four from tropical forests...
November 16, 2016: Global Change Biology
J Joseph Giersch, Scott Hotaling, Ryan P Kovach, Leslie A Jones, Clint C Muhlfeld
Climate warming is causing rapid loss of glaciers and snowpack in mountainous regions worldwide. These changes are predicted to negatively impact the habitats of many range-restricted species, particularly endemic, mountaintop species dependent on the unique thermal and hydrologic conditions found only in glacier-fed and snowmelt-driven alpine streams. Though progress has been made, existing understanding of the status, distribution, and ecology of alpine aquatic species, particularly in North America, is lacking, thereby hindering conservation and management programs...
November 14, 2016: Global Change Biology
Carolina Voigt, Richard E Lamprecht, Maija E Marushchak, Saara E Lind, Alexander Novakovskiy, Mika Aurela, Pertti J Martikainen, Christina Biasi
Rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic might cause a greater release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. To study the effect of warming on GHG dynamics, we deployed open-top chambers in a subarctic tundra site in Northeast European Russia. We determined carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4 ), and nitrous oxide (N2 O) fluxes as well as the concentration of those gases, inorganic nitrogen (N) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) along the soil profile. Studied tundra surfaces ranged from mineral to organic soils and from vegetated to unvegetated areas...
November 14, 2016: Global Change Biology
Arnaud Sentis, Charlène Gémard, Baptiste Jaugeon, David S Boukal
Understanding the dependence of species interaction strengths on environmental factors and species diversity is crucial to predict community dynamics and persistence in a rapidly changing world. Non-trophic (e.g., predator interference) and trophic components together determine species interaction strengths, but the effects of environmental factors on these two components remain largely unknown. This impedes our ability to fully understand the links between environmental drivers and species interactions. Here, we used a dynamical modelling framework based on measured predator functional responses to investigate the effects of predator diversity, prey density, and temperature on trophic and non-trophic interaction strengths within a freshwater food web...
November 10, 2016: Global Change Biology
Senthold Asseng, Davide Cammarano, Bruno Basso, Uran Chung, Phillip D Alderman, Kai Sonder, Matthew Reynolds, David B Lobell
Many of the irrigated spring wheat regions in the world are also regions with high poverty. The impacts of temperature increase on wheat yield in regions of high poverty are uncertain. A grain yield-temperature response function combined with a quantification of model uncertainty was constructed using a multimodel ensemble from two key irrigated spring wheat areas (India and Sudan) and applied to all irrigated spring wheat regions in the world. Southern Indian and southern Pakistani wheat-growing regions with large yield reductions from increasing temperatures coincided with high poverty headcounts, indicating these areas as future food security 'hot spots'...
November 10, 2016: Global Change Biology
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