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Global Change Biology

Darren P Giling, Léa Beaumelle, Helen R P Phillips, Simone Cesarz, Nico Eisenhauer, Olga Ferlian, Felix Gottschall, Carlos Guerra, Jes Hines, Agnieszka Sendek, Julia Siebert, Madhav P Thakur, Andrew D Barnes
Concern about human modification of Earth's ecosystems has recently motivated ecologists to address how global change drivers will impact the simultaneous provisioning of multiple functions, or ecosystem multifunctionality (EMF). However, metrics of EMF have often been applied in global change studies with little consideration of the information they provide beyond single functions, or how and why EMF may respond to global change drivers. Here, we critically review the current state of this rapidly expanding field and provide a conceptual framework to guide the effective incorporation of EMF in global change research...
November 18, 2018: Global Change Biology
Yu Jiang, Haoyu Qian, Ling Wang, Jinfei Feng, Shan Huang, Bruce A Hungate, Chris van Kessel, William R Horwath, Xingyue Zhang, Xiaobo Qin, Yue Li, Xiaomin Feng, Jun Zhang, Aixing Deng, Chenyan Zheng, Zhenwei Song, Shuijin Hu, Kees Jan van Groenigen, Weijian Zhang
Rice is a staple food for nearly half of the world's population, but rice paddies constitute a major source of anthropogenic CH4 emissions. Root exudates from growing rice plants are an important substrate for methane-producing microorganisms. Therefore, breeding efforts optimizing rice plant photosynthate allocation to grains, i.e., increasing harvest index (HI), are widely expected to reduce CH4 emissions with higher yield. Here we show, by combining a series of experiments, meta-analyses and an expert survey, that the potential of CH4 mitigation from rice paddies through HI improvement is in fact small...
November 18, 2018: Global Change Biology
Polly C Buotte, Samuel Levis, Beverly E Law, Tara W Hudiburg, David E Rupp, Jeffery J Kent
Recent prolonged droughts and catastrophic wildfires in the western United States have raised concerns about the potential for forest mortality to impact forest structure, forest ecosystem services, and the economic vitality of communities in the coming decades. We used the Community Land Model (CLM) to determine forest vulnerability to mortality from drought and fire by the year 2049. We modified CLM to represent 13 major forest types in the western United States and ran simulations at a 4-km grid resolution, driven with climate projections from two general circulation models under one emissions scenario (RCP 8...
November 15, 2018: Global Change Biology
David B Lindenmayer, Peter Lane, Mason Crane, Daniel Florance, Claire N Foster, Karen Ikin, Damian Michael, Chloe F Sato, Ben C Scheele, Martin J Westgate
Species occurrence is influenced by a range of factors including habitat attributes, climate, weather and human landscape modification. These drivers are likely to interact, but their effects are frequently quantified independently. Here we report the results of a 13-year study of temperate woodland birds in south-eastern Australia to quantify how different sized birds respond to the interacting effects of: (1) short-term weather (rainfall and temperature in the 12 months preceding our surveys), (2) long-term climate (average rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures over the period 1970 to 2014), and (3) broad structural forms of vegetation (old-growth woodland, regrowth woodland, and restoration plantings)...
November 15, 2018: Global Change Biology
Francisco Rivera Vasconcelos, Sebastian Diehl, Patricia Rodríguez, Per Hedström, Jan Karlsson, Pär Byström
Productivity and trophic structure of aquatic ecosystems result from a complex interplay of bottom-up and top-down forces that operate across benthic and pelagic food web compartments. Projected global changes urge the question how this interplay will be affected by browning (increasing input of terrestrial dissolved organic matter), nutrient enrichment and warming. We explored this with a process-based model of a shallow lake food web consisting of benthic and pelagic components (abiotic resources, primary producers, grazers, carnivores), and compared model expectations with the results of a browning and warming experiment in nutrient-poor ponds harboring a boreal lake community...
November 15, 2018: Global Change Biology
Alicia Valdés, Bryndis Marteinsdottir, Johan Ehrlén
Under global warming, the survival of many populations of sedentary organisms in seasonal environments will largely depend on their ability to cope with warming in situ by means of phenotypic plasticity or adaptive evolution. This is particularly true in high-latitude environments, where current growing seasons are short, and expected temperature increases large. In such short-growing season environments, the timing of growth and reproduction is critical to survival. Here, we use the unique setting provided by a natural geothermal soil warming gradient (Hengill geothermal area, Iceland) to study the response of Cerastium fontanum flowering phenology to temperature...
November 14, 2018: Global Change Biology
Miguel R Varela, Ana R Patrício, Karen Anderson, Annette C Broderick, Leon DeBell, Lucy A Hawkes, Dominic Tilley, Robin T E Snape, Matthew J Westoby, Brendan J Godley
Climate change associated sea level rise (SLR) is expected to have profound impacts on coastal areas, affecting many species including sea turtles which depend on these habitats for egg incubation. Being able to accurately model beach topography using digital terrain models (DTMs) is therefore crucial to project SLR impacts and develop effective conservation strategies. Traditional survey methods are typically low-cost with low accuracy or high-cost with high accuracy. We present a novel combination of drone-based photogrammetry and a low-cost and portable real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS to create DTMs which are highly accurate (<10 cm error) and visually realistic...
November 14, 2018: Global Change Biology
Lauren A Rogers, Annette B Dougherty
Shifts in phenology are a well-documented ecological response to changes in climate, which may or may not be adaptive for a species depending on the climate sensitivity of other ecosystem processes. Furthermore, phenology may be affected by factors in addition to climate, which may accentuate or dampen climate-driven phenological responses. In this study, we investigate how climate and population demographic structure jointly affect spawning phenology of a fish species of major commercial importance: walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus)...
November 14, 2018: Global Change Biology
Maria Bas, Ivan Briz I Godino, Myrian Álvarez, Damián G Vales, Enrique A Crespo, Luis Cardona
Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios in the skeletal elements of both ancient and modern marine species from the Beagle Channel were used to compare the structure of Late Holocene and modern food webs, and predict potential changes as a result of a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) increase in the region. Complementary, ancient and modern shells of limpets and mussels were isotopically analysed to explore changes in the isotopic baseline and compare marine food webs through time after an appropriate correction for baseline shifts...
November 14, 2018: Global Change Biology
Jasmine M Saban, Mark A Chapman, Gail Taylor
Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration is a key driver of enhanced global greening, thought to account for up to 70% of increased global vegetation in recent decades. CO2 fertilization effects have further profound implications for ecosystems, food security and biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. However, it is also possible that current trends will not continue, due to ecosystem level constraints and as plants acclimate to future CO2 concentrations. Future predictions of plant response to rising [CO2 ] are often validated using single-generation short-term FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment) experiments but whether this accurately represents vegetation response over decades is unclear...
November 13, 2018: Global Change Biology
Ivan Jarić, Robert J Lennox, Gregor Kalinkat, Gorčin Cvijanović, Johannes Radinger
Climate change is expected to strongly affect freshwater fish communities. Combined with other anthropogenic drivers, the impacts may alter species spatio-temporal distributions, and contribute to population declines and local extinctions. To provide timely management and conservation of fishes, it is relevant to identify species that will be most impacted by climate change and those that will be resilient. Species traits are considered a promising source of information on characteristics that influence resilience to various environmental conditions and impacts...
November 12, 2018: Global Change Biology
Jianwei Li, Gangsheng Wang, Melanie A Mayes, Steven D Allison, Serita D Frey, Zheng Shi, Xiao-Ming Hu, Yiqi Luo, Jerry M Melillo
Global soil carbon (C) stocks are expected to decline with warming, and changes in microbial processes are key to this projection. However, warming responses of critical microbial parameters such as carbon use efficiency (CUE) and biomass turnover (rB) are not well understood. Here, we determine these parameters using a probabilistic inversion approach that integrates a microbial-enzyme model with 22 years of carbon cycling measurements at Harvard Forest. We find that increasing temperature reduces CUE but increases rB, and that two decades of soil warming increases the temperature sensitivities of CUE and rB...
November 12, 2018: Global Change Biology
Hanqin Tian, Jia Yang, Rongting Xu, Chaoqun Lu, Josep G Canadell, Eric A Davidson, Robert B Jackson, Almut Arneth, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Stefan Gerber, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Sebastian Lienert, Palmira Messina, Stefan Olin, Shufen Pan, Changhui Peng, Eri Saikawa, Rona L Thompson, Nicolas Vuichard, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Bowen Zhang
Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, on global soil N2 O emissions for the period 1861-2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process-based terrestrial biosphere models...
November 10, 2018: Global Change Biology
M A Coleman, P Butcherine, B P Kelaher, M K Broadhurst, D T March, E J Provost, J David, K Benkendorff
Climate change can affect marine and estuarine fish via alterations to their distributions, abundances, sizes, physiology and ecological interactions, threatening the provision of ecosystem goods and services. While we have an emerging understanding of such ecological impacts to fish, we know little about the potential influence of climate change on the provision of nutritional seafood to sustain human populations. In particular, the quantity, quality and/or taste of seafood may be altered by future environmental changes with implications for the economic viability of fisheries...
November 10, 2018: Global Change Biology
Lee E Brown, Katie L Aspray, Mark E Ledger, Chris Mainstone, Sheila M Palmer, Martin Wilkes, Joseph Holden
Land use and climate change are driving widespread modifications to the biodiverse and functionally unique headwaters of rivers. In temperate and boreal regions, many headwaters drain peatlands where land management and climate change can cause significant soil erosion and peat deposition in rivers. However, effects of peat deposition in river ecosystems remain poorly understood. We provide two lines of evidence - derived from sediment deposition gradients in experimental mesocosms (0 to 7.5 g m-2 ) and headwaters (0...
November 10, 2018: Global Change Biology
Bin Wang, Paul E Brewer, Herman H Shugart, Manuel T Lerdau, Steven D Allison
Soil-atmosphere exchange significantly influences the global atmospheric abundances of carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4 ), and nitrous oxide (N2 O). These greenhouse gases (GHGs) have been extensively studied at the soil profile level and extrapolated to coarser scales (regional and global). However, finer scale studies of soil aggregation have not received much attention, even though elucidating the GHG activities at the full spectrum of scales rather than just coarse levels is essential for reducing the large uncertainties in the current atmospheric budgets of these gases...
November 9, 2018: Global Change Biology
Kristen E Dybala, Virginia Matzek, Thomas Gardali, Nathaniel E Seavy
Restoration of deforested and degraded landscapes is a globally recognized strategy to sequester carbon, improve ecological integrity, conserve biodiversity, and provide additional benefits to human health and well-being. Investment in riparian forest restoration has received relatively little attention, in part due to their relatively small spatial extent. Yet, riparian forest restoration may be a particularly valuable strategy because riparian forests have the potential for rapid carbon sequestration, are hotspots of biodiversity, and provide numerous valuable ecosystem services...
November 8, 2018: Global Change Biology
Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Derek P Tittensor, Julia L Blanchard, William W L Cheung, Marta Coll, Eric D Galbraith, Simon Jennings, Olivier Maury, Heike K Lotze
Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty...
November 8, 2018: Global Change Biology
E F Nicklen, C A Roland, A Z Csank, M Wilmking, R W Ruess, L A Muldoon
The negative growth response of North American boreal forest trees to warm summers is well documented and the constraint of competition on tree growth widely reported, but the potential interaction between climate and competition in the boreal forest is not well studied. Because competition may amplify or mute tree climate-growth responses, understanding the role current forest structure plays in tree growth responses to climate is critical in assessing and managing future forest productivity in a warming climate...
November 8, 2018: Global Change Biology
Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Timothy R Baker, Kyle G Dexter, Simon L Lewis, Roel J W Brienen, Ted R Feldpausch, Jon Lloyd, Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza, Luzmila Arroyo, Esteban Álvarez-Dávila, Niro Higuchi, Beatriz S Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon-Junior, Marcos Silveira, Emilio Vilanova, Emanuel Gloor, Yadvinder Malhi, Jerôme Chave, Jos Barlow, Damien Bonal, Nallaret Davila Cardozo, Terry Erwin, Sophie Fauset, Bruno Hérault, Susan Laurance, Lourens Poorter, Lan Qie, Clement Stahl, Martin J P Sullivan, Hans Ter Steege, Vincent Antoine Vos, Pieter A Zuidema, Everton Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Ana Andrade, Simone Aparecida Vieira, Luiz Aragão, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Eric Arets, Gerardo A Aymard C, Plínio Barbosa Camargo, Jorcely G Barroso, Frans Bongers, Rene Boot, José Luís Camargo, Wendeson Castro, Victor Chama Moscoso, James Comiskey, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Antonio Carlos Lola da Costa, Jhon Del Aguila Pasquel, Tony Di Fiore, Luisa Fernanda Duque, Fernando Elias, Julien Engel, Gerardo Flores Llampazo, David Galbraith, Rafael Herrera Fernández, Eurídice Honorio Coronado, Wannes Hubau, Eliana Jimenez-Rojas, Adriano José Nogueira Lima, Ricardo Keichi Umetsu, William Laurance, Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez, Thomas Lovejoy, Omar Aurelio Melo Cruz, Paulo S Morandi, David Neill, Percy Núñez Vargas, Nadir C Pallqui, Alexander Parada Gutierrez, Guido Pardo, Julie Peacock, Marielos Peña-Claros, Maria Cristina Peñuela-Mora, Pascal Petronelli, Georgia C Pickavance, Nigel Pitman, Adriana Prieto, Carlos Quesada, Hirma Ramírez-Angulo, Maxime Réjou-Méchain, Zorayda Restrepo Correa, Anand Roopsind, Agustín Rudas, Rafael Salomão, Natalino Silva, Javier Silva Espejo, James Singh, Juliana Stropp, John Terborgh, Raquel Thomas, Marisol Toledo, Armando Torres-Lezama, Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Peter J van de Meer, Geertje van der Heijden, Peter van der Hout, Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez, Cesar Vela, Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira, Oliver L Phillips
Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density...
November 8, 2018: Global Change Biology
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