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Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology

Tayyab Ikram Shah, Stephan Milosavljevic, Brenna Bath
This research is focused on methodological challenges and considerations associated with the estimation of the geographical aspects of access to healthcare with a focus on rural and remote areas. With the assumption that GIS-based accessibility measures for rural healthcare services will vary across geographic units of analysis and estimation techniques, which could influence the interpretation of spatial access to rural healthcare services. Estimations of geographical accessibility depend on variations of the following three parameters: 1) quality of input data; 2) accessibility method; and 3) geographical area...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Sidrah Hafeez, Muhammad Amin, Bilal Ahmed Munir
BACKGROUND: Dengue is identified as serious vector born infectious disease by WHO, threating around 2.5 billion people around the globe. Pakistan is facing dengue epidemic since 1994 but 2010 and 2011 dengue outbreaks were worst. During 2011 dengue outbreak 22,562 cases were reported and 363 died due to this fatal infection in Pakistan. In this study, Lahore District was chosen as it was severely affected in 2011 dengue outbreak with 14,000 reported cases and 300 deaths. There is no vaccine developed yet for the disease control, so only effective early warning, prevention and control measures can reduce the potential disease risk...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Diba Khan, Lauren M Rossen, Brady E Hamilton, Yulei He, Rong Wei, Erin Dienes
Teen birth rates have evidenced a significant decline in the United States over the past few decades. Most of the states in the US have mirrored this national decline, though some reports have illustrated substantial variation in the magnitude of these decreases across the U.S. Importantly, geographic variation at the county level has largely not been explored. We used National Vital Statistics Births data and Hierarchical Bayesian space-time interaction models to produce smoothed estimates of teen birth rates at the county level from 2003-2012...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Roghieh Ramezankhani, Arezoo Hosseini, Nooshin Sajjadi, Mostafa Khoshabi, Azra Ramezankhani
OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to determine the environmental factors associated with cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Isfahan Province, using spatial analysis. METHODS: Data of monthly CL incidence from 2010 to 2013, climate and environmental factors including: temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), altitude and population density across the Isfahan's cities was used to perform spatial analysis by ordinary least square (OLS) regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR)...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
David I Gregorio, Chandler Ford, Holly Samociuk
PURPOSE: Geographic variation in breast cancer incidence across Connecticut was examined according to age and birth cohort -specific groups. METHODS: We assigned each of 60,937 incident breast cancer cases diagnosed in Connecticut, 1986-2009, to one of 828 census tracts around the state. Global and local spatial statistics estimated rate variation across the state according to age and birth cohorts. RESULTS: We found the global distribution of incidence rates across places to be more heterogeneous for younger women and later birth cohorts...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Justice Moses K Aheto, Benjamin M Taylor, Thomas J Keegan, Peter J Diggle
BACKGROUND: Spatio-temporal variation in under-5-year-old children malnutrition remains unstudied in most developing countries like Ghana. This study explores and forecasts the spatio-temporal patterns in childhood chronic malnutrition among these children. We also investigate the effect of maternal education on childhood malnutrition. METHODS: We analysed data on 10,036 children residing in 1516 geographic locations. A spatio-temporal model was fitted to the data and was used to produce predictive maps of spatio-temporal variation in the probability of stunting...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Richard J Q McNally, Peter W James, Karen Blakey, Nermine O Basta, Paul D Norman, Mark S Pearce
Previously excesses in incident cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma have been observed amongst young people born or resident in Seascale, Cumbria. These excesses have not been seen more recently. It is postulated that the former apparent increased risk was related to 'unusual population mixing', which is not present in recent years. This study investigated changes in measures of population mixing from 1951-2001. Comparisons were made between three specified areas. Area-based measures were calculated (migration, commuting, deprivation, population density)...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Qingzhao Yu, Richard A Scribner, Claudia Leonardi, Lu Zhang, Chi Park, Liwei Chen, Neal R Simonsen
Research shows aconsistent racial disparity in obesity between white and black adults in the United States. Accounting for the disparity is a challenge given the variety of the contributing factors, the nature of the association, and the multilevel relationships among the factors. We used the multivariable mediation analysis (MMA) method to explore the racial disparity in obesity considering not only the individual behavior but also geospatially derived environmental risk factors. Results from generalized linear models (GLM) were compared with those from multiple additive regression trees (MART) which allow for hierarchical data structure, and fitting of nonlinear and complex interactive relationships...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Oswaldo Padilla, Pablo Rosas, Wilson Moreno, Theofilos Toulkeridis
Ecuador in the northwestern edge of South America is struggling by vector-borne diseases with an endemic-epidemic behavior leading to an enormous public health problem. Malaria, which has a cyclicality in its dynamics, is closely related to climatic, ecological and socio-economic phenomena. The main objective of this research has been to compare three different prediction species models, the so-called Maxent, logistic regression and multi criteria evaluation with fuzzy logic, in order to determine the model which best describes the ecological niche of the Anopheles spp species, which transmits malaria within Ecuador...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
S Shekhar, E-H Yoo, S A Ahmed, R Haining, S Kadannolly
Spatial decision support systems have already proved their value in helping to reduce infectious diseases but to be effective they need to be designed to reflect local circumstances and local data availability. We report the first stage of a project to develop a spatial decision support system for infectious diseases for Karnataka State in India. The focus of this paper is on malaria incidence and we draw on small area data on new cases of malaria analysed in two-monthly time intervals over the period February 2012 to January 2016 for Kalaburagi taluk, a small area in Karnataka...
February 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Brian Hendricks, Miguella Mark-Carew
Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vectorborne disease in the United States. The objective of our study was to identify patterns of Lyme disease reporting after multistate inclusion to mitigate potential border effects. County-level human Lyme disease surveillance data were obtained from Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia state health departments. Rate smoothing and Local Moran's I was performed to identify clusters of reporting activity and identify spatial outliers...
February 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Chandrasekaran Kandhasamy, Kaushik Ghosh
Indian states are currently classified into HIV-risk categories based on the observed prevalence counts, percentage of infected attendees in antenatal clinics, and percentage of infected high-risk individuals. This method, however, does not account for the spatial dependence among the states nor does it provide any measure of statistical uncertainty. We provide an alternative model-based approach to address these issues. Our method uses Poisson log-normal models having various conditional autoregressive structures with neighborhood-based and distance-based weight matrices and incorporates all available covariate information...
February 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Holly Thurston, Bridget Freisthler, Janice Bell, Daniel Tancredi, Patrick S Romano, Sheridan Miyamoto, Jill G Joseph
This descriptive study utilized Bernoulli and Poisson spatial scan statistical models in SatScan v.9.4 to examine the distribution in space and time of residence of maltreatment cases-operationalized as families with serious maltreatment (resulting in death or hospitalization) of children under 6 years-for the presence of clusters ("hot spots"). In the Poisson model, a population dataset of serious maltreatment cases were non-randomly dispersed in four major areas, with these "hot spots" moving over time and space...
February 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Annette Kjær Ersbøll, Ulf Strömberg
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
November 2016: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Daniel Hogg, Simon Kingham, Thomas M Wilson, Michael Ardagh
This article explores the spatio-temporal variation of mood and anxiety treatments in the context of a severe earthquake sequence. The aim was to examine a possible earthquake exposure effect, identify populations at risk and areas with particularly large mood and anxiety treatment rate increases or decreases in the affected Christchurch urban area. A significantly stronger increase of mood and anxiety treatments among residents in Christchurch compared to others in New Zealand have been found, as well as children and elderly identified as especially vulnerable...
November 2016: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Silvia Bermedo-Carrasco, Cheryl Waldner, Juan Nicolás Peña-Sánchez, Michael Szafron
We examined spatial variations in the frequencies of women who had not heard of human papillomavirus vaccination (NHrd-Vac) and who had not had Pap testing (NHd-Pap) among Colombian administrative divisions (departments), before and after considering differences in socio-demographic factors. Following global and local tests for clustering, Bayesian Poisson hierarchical models identified department factors associated with NHrd-Vac and NHd-Pap, as well as the extent of the spatially structured and unstructured heterogeneity...
November 2016: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Timothée Vergne, Fedor Korennoy, Lisa Combelles, Andrey Gogin, Dirk U Pfeiffer
African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease of swine that has been present in the Russian Federation since 2007. Counts of ASF outbreaks reported in the Southern regions of the country (2007-2014) were aggregated to a grid of hexagons, and a zero-inflated Poisson model accounting for spatial dependence between hexagons was used to identify factors associated with the presence of ASF outbreaks and factors associated with the number of ASF reports in affected hexagons. Increasing density of pigs raised on low biosecurity farms was found to be positively associated with the probability of occurrence of at least one ASF outbreak in a hexagon and with the average number of reported ASF outbreaks amongst affected hexagons...
November 2016: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Annette Kjær Ersbøll, Thora Majlund Kjærulff, Kristine Bihrmann, Jasper Schipperijn, Gunnar Gislason, Mogens Lytken Larsen
BACKGROUND: Geographical variation in incidence and mortality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is present in Denmark. We aimed at examining the association between contact to a general practitioner (GP) the year before AMI and a fatal outcome of AMI. METHODS: Register-based data and individual-level addresses including 69,608 individuals with AMI in 2006-2011. A Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression model was used to examine the association. RESULTS: A fatal outcome of AMI was seen among 12...
November 2016: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Thora Majlund Kjærulff, Annette Kjær Ersbøll, Gunnar Gislason, Jasper Schipperijn
OBJECTIVES: To examine the geographical patterns in AMI and characterize individual and neighborhood sociodemographic factors for persons living inside versus outside AMI clusters. METHODS: The study population comprised 3,515,670 adults out of whom 74,126 persons experienced an incident AMI (2005-2011). Kernel density estimation and global and local clustering methods were used to examine the geographical patterns in AMI. Median differences and frequency distributions of sociodemographic factors were calculated for persons living inside versus outside AMI clusters...
November 2016: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Michela Cameletti, Francesco Finazzi
In this paper, the Italian hospitalization database provided by the Ministry of Health is analyzed in terms of the temporal and spatial patterns of the hospitalization rates. The database covers the period 2010-2012 and the rates are evaluated for 110 Italian provinces and 18 diagnosis groups as defined by the ICD-9 classification. The analysis is based on a novel model-based clustering approach which enables clustering of spatially registered time series with respect to latent temporal patterns. The clustering result is analyzed to study the spatial distribution of the latent temporal patterns and their trend in order to identify possible critical areas in terms of increasing rates...
November 2016: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
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