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Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology

Susanna M Cramb, Paula Moraga, Kerrie L Mengersen, Peter D Baade
Interpreting changes over time in small-area variation in cancer survival, in light of changes in cancer incidence, aids understanding progress in cancer control, yet few space-time analyses have considered both measures. Bayesian space-time hierarchical models were applied to Queensland Cancer Registry data to examine geographical changes in cancer incidence and relative survival over time for the five most common cancers (colorectal, melanoma, lung, breast, prostate) diagnosed during 1997-2004 and 2005-2012 across 516 Queensland residential small-areas...
November 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Paula Moraga
During last years, public health surveillance has been facilitated by the existence of several packages implementing statistical methods for the analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal disease data. However, these methods are still inaccesible for many researchers lacking the adequate programming skills to effectively use the required software. In this paper we present SpatialEpiApp, a Shiny web application that integrate two of the most common approaches in health surveillance: disease mapping and detection of clusters...
November 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Daniel Rainham, Patrick Brown, Tara Sampalli
Multiple chemical sensitivity (MCS) is a chronic condition characterized by recurring and severe symptoms triggered by exposures to low levels of toxicants or anthropogenic pollution. This study investigated the spatial structure of MCS incidence and estimated the contribution of socio-economic deprivation to variations in rates of MCS at the community level in Nova Scotia, Canada. Patient data were used to calculate cumulative incidence rate ratios for treated multiple chemical sensitivities. Poisson regression with a spatially autoregressive random effect was employed to assess spatial variation in MCS...
November 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Yimer Wasihun Kifle, Niel Hens, Christel Faes
This paper formulates and compares a general class of spatiotemporal models for univariate space-time geostatistical data. The implementation of stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach combined with integrated nested Laplace approximation into the R-INLA package makes it computationally feasible to use spatiotemporal models. However, the impact of specifying models with and without space-time interaction is unclear. We formulate an extensive class of additive and coupled spatiotemporal SPDE models and investigate the distinction between them by (1) Extending their temporal effect, allowing a random walk process in time, (2) varying the spatial correlation function and (3) running a simulation study to assess the effect of misspecifying the spatial and temporal models, and to assess the generalizability of our results to a higher number of locations...
November 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Sara E Benjamin Neelon, Thomas Burgoine, John A Gallis, Pablo Monsivais
BACKGROUND: we assessed manager perceptions of food security and obesity in young children attending nurseries across England, assessing spatial differences by area-level deprivation. METHODS: we conducted an adjusted multinomial logistic regression and an adjusted geographically weighted logistic regression examining the odds of a manager perceiving obesity, food insecurity, or both as a problem among children in care measured via a mailed survey. RESULTS: 851 (54...
November 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Mehreteab Aregay, Andrew B Lawson, Christel Faes, Russell S Kirby, Rachel Carroll, Kevin Watjou
In spatial epidemiology, data are often arrayed hierarchically. The classification of individuals into smaller units, which in turn are grouped into larger units, can induce contextual effects. On the other hand, a scaling effect can occur due to the aggregation of data from smaller units into larger units. In this paper, we propose a shared multilevel model to address the contextual effects. In addition, we consider a shared multiscale model to adjust for both scale and contextual effects simultaneously. We also study convolution and independent multiscale models, which are special cases of shared multilevel and shared multiscale models, respectively...
August 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Francisco Laguna, María Eugenia Grillet, José R León, Carenne Ludeña
The influence of climatic variables on the dynamics of human malaria has been widely highlighted. Also, it is known that this mosquito-borne infection varies in space and time. However, when the data is spatially incomplete most popular spatio-temporal methods of analysis cannot be applied directly. In this paper, we develop a two step methodology to model the spatio-temporal dependence of malaria incidence on local rainfall, temperature, and humidity as well as the regional sea surface temperatures (SST) in the northern coast of Venezuela...
August 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Mehran Rostami, Younes Mohammadi, Abdollah Jalilian, Bashir Nazparvar
Substance use disorder is one of the main mental health problems in Iran. In this paper, the six-monthly counts of deaths due to substance abuse in Iran at provincial level between March 21, 2005, and March 20, 2014, were modeled using a log-Gaussian Cox point process model. By assuming population density as the exposure variable, the considered model incorporated known and unknown influential factors in order to describe spatio-temporal variations in the relative risk of substance abuse mortality. We found evidence of spatial heterogeneity and inequality by gender in deaths related to substance abuse across Iran...
August 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Ayodeji O Olarinmoye, Johnson F Ojo, Ayotunde J Fasunla, Olayinka O Ishola, Fahnboah G Dakinah, Charles K Mulbah, Khalid Al-Hezaimi, Babasola O Olugasa
We developed time trend model, determined treatment outcome and estimated annual human deaths among dog bite victims (DBVs) from 2010 to 2013 in Monrovia, Liberia. Data obtained from clinic records included victim's age, gender and site of bite marks, site name of residence of rabies-exposed patients, promptness of care sought, initial treatment and post-exposure-prophylaxis (PEP) compliance. We computed DBV time-trend plot, seasonal index and year 2014 case forecast. Associated annual human death (AHD) was estimated using a standardized decision tree model...
August 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Tayyab Ikram Shah, Stephan Milosavljevic, Brenna Bath
This research is focused on methodological challenges and considerations associated with the estimation of the geographical aspects of access to healthcare with a focus on rural and remote areas. With the assumption that GIS-based accessibility measures for rural healthcare services will vary across geographic units of analysis and estimation techniques, which could influence the interpretation of spatial access to rural healthcare services. Estimations of geographical accessibility depend on variations of the following three parameters: 1) quality of input data; 2) accessibility method; and 3) geographical area...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Sidrah Hafeez, Muhammad Amin, Bilal Ahmed Munir
BACKGROUND: Dengue is identified as serious vector born infectious disease by WHO, threating around 2.5 billion people around the globe. Pakistan is facing dengue epidemic since 1994 but 2010 and 2011 dengue outbreaks were worst. During 2011 dengue outbreak 22,562 cases were reported and 363 died due to this fatal infection in Pakistan. In this study, Lahore District was chosen as it was severely affected in 2011 dengue outbreak with 14,000 reported cases and 300 deaths. There is no vaccine developed yet for the disease control, so only effective early warning, prevention and control measures can reduce the potential disease risk...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Diba Khan, Lauren M Rossen, Brady E Hamilton, Yulei He, Rong Wei, Erin Dienes
Teen birth rates have evidenced a significant decline in the United States over the past few decades. Most of the states in the US have mirrored this national decline, though some reports have illustrated substantial variation in the magnitude of these decreases across the U.S. Importantly, geographic variation at the county level has largely not been explored. We used National Vital Statistics Births data and Hierarchical Bayesian space-time interaction models to produce smoothed estimates of teen birth rates at the county level from 2003-2012...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Roghieh Ramezankhani, Arezoo Hosseini, Nooshin Sajjadi, Mostafa Khoshabi, Azra Ramezankhani
OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to determine the environmental factors associated with cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Isfahan Province, using spatial analysis. METHODS: Data of monthly CL incidence from 2010 to 2013, climate and environmental factors including: temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), altitude and population density across the Isfahan's cities was used to perform spatial analysis by ordinary least square (OLS) regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR)...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
David I Gregorio, Chandler Ford, Holly Samociuk
PURPOSE: Geographic variation in breast cancer incidence across Connecticut was examined according to age and birth cohort -specific groups. METHODS: We assigned each of 60,937 incident breast cancer cases diagnosed in Connecticut, 1986-2009, to one of 828 census tracts around the state. Global and local spatial statistics estimated rate variation across the state according to age and birth cohorts. RESULTS: We found the global distribution of incidence rates across places to be more heterogeneous for younger women and later birth cohorts...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Justice Moses K Aheto, Benjamin M Taylor, Thomas J Keegan, Peter J Diggle
BACKGROUND: Spatio-temporal variation in under-5-year-old children malnutrition remains unstudied in most developing countries like Ghana. This study explores and forecasts the spatio-temporal patterns in childhood chronic malnutrition among these children. We also investigate the effect of maternal education on childhood malnutrition. METHODS: We analysed data on 10,036 children residing in 1516 geographic locations. A spatio-temporal model was fitted to the data and was used to produce predictive maps of spatio-temporal variation in the probability of stunting...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Richard J Q McNally, Peter W James, Karen Blakey, Nermine O Basta, Paul D Norman, Mark S Pearce
Previously excesses in incident cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma have been observed amongst young people born or resident in Seascale, Cumbria. These excesses have not been seen more recently. It is postulated that the former apparent increased risk was related to 'unusual population mixing', which is not present in recent years. This study investigated changes in measures of population mixing from 1951-2001. Comparisons were made between three specified areas. Area-based measures were calculated (migration, commuting, deprivation, population density)...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Qingzhao Yu, Richard A Scribner, Claudia Leonardi, Lu Zhang, Chi Park, Liwei Chen, Neal R Simonsen
Research shows aconsistent racial disparity in obesity between white and black adults in the United States. Accounting for the disparity is a challenge given the variety of the contributing factors, the nature of the association, and the multilevel relationships among the factors. We used the multivariable mediation analysis (MMA) method to explore the racial disparity in obesity considering not only the individual behavior but also geospatially derived environmental risk factors. Results from generalized linear models (GLM) were compared with those from multiple additive regression trees (MART) which allow for hierarchical data structure, and fitting of nonlinear and complex interactive relationships...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Oswaldo Padilla, Pablo Rosas, Wilson Moreno, Theofilos Toulkeridis
Ecuador in the northwestern edge of South America is struggling by vector-borne diseases with an endemic-epidemic behavior leading to an enormous public health problem. Malaria, which has a cyclicality in its dynamics, is closely related to climatic, ecological and socio-economic phenomena. The main objective of this research has been to compare three different prediction species models, the so-called Maxent, logistic regression and multi criteria evaluation with fuzzy logic, in order to determine the model which best describes the ecological niche of the Anopheles spp species, which transmits malaria within Ecuador...
June 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
S Shekhar, E-H Yoo, S A Ahmed, R Haining, S Kadannolly
Spatial decision support systems have already proved their value in helping to reduce infectious diseases but to be effective they need to be designed to reflect local circumstances and local data availability. We report the first stage of a project to develop a spatial decision support system for infectious diseases for Karnataka State in India. The focus of this paper is on malaria incidence and we draw on small area data on new cases of malaria analysed in two-monthly time intervals over the period February 2012 to January 2016 for Kalaburagi taluk, a small area in Karnataka...
February 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Brian Hendricks, Miguella Mark-Carew
Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vectorborne disease in the United States. The objective of our study was to identify patterns of Lyme disease reporting after multistate inclusion to mitigate potential border effects. County-level human Lyme disease surveillance data were obtained from Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia state health departments. Rate smoothing and Local Moran's I was performed to identify clusters of reporting activity and identify spatial outliers...
February 2017: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
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