Katharine Sherratt, Ajitesh Srivastava, Kylie Ainslie, David E Singh, Aymar Cublier, Maria Cristina Marinescu, Jesus Carretero, Alberto Cascajo Garcia, Nicolas Franco, Lander Willem, Steven Abrams, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens, Sebastian Müller, Billy Charlton, Ricardo Ewert, Sydney Paltra, Christian Rakow, Jakob Rehmann, Tim Conrad, Christof Schütte, Kai Nagel, Sam Abbott, Rok Grah, Rene Niehus, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandmann, Sebastian Funk
BACKGROUND: Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results...
March 27, 2024: Epidemics