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Epidemics

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28283373/dynamics-affecting-the-risk-of-silent-circulation-when-oral-polio-vaccination-is-stopped
#1
J S Koopman, C J Henry, J H Park, M C Eisenberg, E L Ionides, J N Eisenberg
Waning immunity could allow transmission of polioviruses without causing poliomyelitis by promoting silent circulation (SC). Undetected SC when oral polio vaccine (OPV) use is stopped could cause difficult to control epidemics. Little is known about waning. To develop theory about what generates SC, we modeled a range of waning patterns. We varied both OPV and wild polio virus (WPV) transmissibility, the time from beginning vaccination to reaching low polio levels, and the infection to paralysis ratio (IPR)...
March 1, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28325495/two-approaches-to-forecast-ebola-synthetic-epidemics
#2
David Champredon, Michael Li, Benjamin M Bolker, Jonathan Dushoff
We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks...
February 24, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28256420/using-data-driven-agent-based-models-for-forecasting-emerging-infectious-diseases
#3
Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Bryan Lewis, Jiangzhuo Chen, Dave Higdon, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe
Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects of various interventions in place. Under this setting, detailed computational models provide a comprehensive framework for integrating diverse data sources into a well-defined model of disease dynamics and social behavior, potentially leading to better understanding and actions...
February 22, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28325494/modelling-h5n1-in-bangladesh-across-spatial-scales-model-complexity-and-zoonotic-transmission-risk
#4
Edward M Hill, Thomas House, Madhur S Dhingra, Wantanee Kalpravidh, Subhash Morzaria, Muzaffar G Osmani, Mat Yamage, Xiangming Xiao, Marius Gilbert, Michael J Tildesley
Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human-animal interface...
February 21, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28262588/population-effect-of-influenza-vaccination-under-co-circulation-of-non-vaccine-variants-and-the-case-for-a-bivalent-a-h3n2-vaccine-component
#5
Colin J Worby, Jacco Wallinga, Marc Lipsitch, Edward Goldstein
Some past epidemics of different influenza subtypes (particularly A/H3N2) in the US saw co-circulation of vaccine-type and variant strains. There is evidence that natural infection with one influenza subtype offers short-term protection against infection with another influenza subtype (henceforth, cross-immunity). This suggests that such cross-immunity for strains within a subtype is expected to be strong. Therefore, while vaccination effective against one strain may reduce transmission of that strain, this may also lead to a reduction of the vaccine-type strain's ability to suppress spread of a variant strain...
February 21, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28169133/gender-asymmetry-in-concurrent-partnerships-and-hiv-prevalence
#6
Ka Yin Leung, Kimberly A Powers, Mirjam Kretzschmar
The structure of the sexual network of a population plays an essential role in the transmission of HIV. Concurrent partnerships, i.e. partnerships that overlap in time, are important in determining this network structure. Men and women may differ in their concurrent behavior, e.g. in the case of polygyny where women are monogamous while men may have concurrent partnerships. Polygyny has been shown empirically to be negatively associated with HIV prevalence, but the epidemiological impacts of other forms of gender-asymmetric concurrency have not been formally explored...
January 20, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28189386/characterising-pandemic-severity-and-transmissibility-from-data-collected-during-first-few-hundred-studies
#7
Andrew J Black, Nicholas Geard, James M McCaw, Jodie McVernon, Joshua V Ross
Early estimation of the probable impact of a pandemic influenza outbreak can assist public health authorities to ensure that response measures are proportionate to the scale of the threat. Recently, frameworks based on transmissibility and severity have been proposed for initial characterization of pandemic impact. Data requirements to inform this assessment may be provided by "First Few Hundred" (FF100) studies, which involve surveillance-possibly in person, or via telephone-of household members of confirmed cases...
January 19, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28139388/a-comparative-analysis-of-chikungunya-and-zika-transmission
#8
Julien Riou, Chiara Poletto, Pierre-Yves Boëlle
The recent global dissemination of Chikungunya and Zika has fostered public health concern worldwide. To better understand the drivers of transmission of these two arboviral diseases, we propose a joint analysis of Chikungunya and Zika epidemics in the same territories, taking into account the common epidemiological features of the epidemics: transmitted by the same vector, in the same environments, and observed by the same surveillance systems. We analyse eighteen outbreaks in French Polynesia and the French West Indies using a hierarchical time-dependent SIR model accounting for the effect of virus, location and weather on transmission, and based on a disease specific serial interval...
January 18, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28089780/co-feeding-transmission-facilitates-strain-coexistence-in-borrelia-burgdorferi-the-lyme-disease-agent
#9
S L States, C I Huang, S Davis, D M Tufts, M A Diuk-Wasser
Coexistence of multiple tick-borne pathogens or strains is common in natural hosts and can be facilitated by resource partitioning of the host species, within-host localization, or by different transmission pathways. Most vector-borne pathogens are transmitted horizontally via systemic host infection, but transmission may occur in the absence of systemic infection between two vectors feeding in close proximity, enabling pathogens to minimize competition and escape the host immune response. In a laboratory study, we demonstrated that co-feeding transmission can occur for a rapidly-cleared strain of Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease agent, between two stages of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis while feeding on their dominant host, Peromyscus leucopus...
December 26, 2016: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28279460/forecasting-the-new-case-detection-rate-of-leprosy-in-four-states-of-brazil-a-comparison-of-modelling-approaches
#10
David J Blok, Ronald E Crump, Ram Sundaresh, Martial Ndeffo-Mbah, Alison P Galvani, Travis C Porco, Sake J de Vlas, Graham F Medley, Jan Hendrik Richardus
BACKGROUND: Brazil has the second highest annual number of new leprosy cases. The aim of this study is to formally compare predictions of future new case detection rate (NCDR) trends and the annual probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 of four different modelling approaches in four states of Brazil: Rio Grande do Norte, Amazonas, Ceará, Tocantins. METHODS: A linear mixed model, a back-calculation approach, a deterministic compartmental model and an individual-based model were used...
March 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28279459/comparison-and-validation-of-two-computational-models-of-chagas-disease-a-thirty-year-perspective-from-venezuela
#11
Sarah M Bartsch, Jennifer K Peterson, Daniel L Hertenstein, Laura Skrip, Martial Ndeffo-Mbah, Alison P Galvani, Andrew P Dobson, Bruce Y Lee
BACKGROUND: Mathematical models can help aid public health responses to Chagas disease. Models are typically developed to fulfill a particular need, and comparing outputs from different models addressing the same question can help identify the strengths and weaknesses of the models in answering particular questions, such as those for achieving the 2020 goals for Chagas disease. METHODS: Using two separately developed models (PHICOR/CIDMA model and Princeton model), we simulated dynamics for domestic transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi (T...
March 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28279458/elimination-of-visceral-leishmaniasis-in-the-indian-subcontinent-a-comparison-of-predictions-from-three-transmission-models
#12
Epke A Le Rutte, Lloyd A C Chapman, Luc E Coffeng, Sarah Jervis, Epco C Hasker, Shweta Dwivedi, Morchan Karthick, Aritra Das, Tanmay Mahapatra, Indrajit Chaudhuri, Marleen C Boelaert, Graham F Medley, Sridhar Srikantiah, T Deirdre Hollingsworth, Sake J de Vlas
We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies...
March 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28279457/measuring-and-modelling-the-effects-of-systematic-non-adherence-to-mass-drug-administration
#13
Louise Dyson, Wilma A Stolk, Sam H Farrell, T Déirdre Hollingsworth
It is well understood that the success or failure of a mass drug administration campaign critically depends on the level of coverage achieved. To that end coverage levels are often closely scrutinised during campaigns and the response to underperforming campaigns is to attempt to improve coverage. Modelling work has indicated, however, that the quality of the coverage achieved may also have a significant impact on the outcome. If the coverage achieved is likely to miss similar people every round then this can have a serious detrimental effect on the campaign outcome...
March 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28279456/probabilistic-forecasts-of-trachoma-transmission-at-the-district-level-a-statistical-model-comparison
#14
Amy Pinsent, Fengchen Liu, Michael Deiner, Paul Emerson, Ana Bhaktiari, Travis C Porco, Thomas Lietman, Manoj Gambhir
The World Health Organization and its partners are aiming to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem by 2020. In this study, we compare forecasts of TF prevalence in 2011 for 7 different statistical and mechanistic models across 9 de-identified trachoma endemic districts, representing 4 unique trachoma endemic countries. We forecast TF prevalence between 1-6 years ahead in time and compare the 7 different models to the observed 2011 data using a log-likelihood score. An SIS model, including a district-specific random effect for the district-specific transmission coefficient, had the highest log-likelihood score across all 9 districts and was therefore the best performing model...
March 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28279455/modelling-the-elimination-of-river-blindness-using-long-term-epidemiological-and-programmatic-data-from-mali-and-senegal
#15
Martin Walker, Wilma A Stolk, Matthew A Dixon, Christian Bottomley, Lamine Diawara, Mamadou O Traoré, Sake J de Vlas, María-Gloria Basáñez
The onchocerciasis transmission models EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have been independently developed and used to explore the feasibility of eliminating onchocerciasis from Africa with mass (annual or biannual) distribution of ivermectin within the timeframes proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and endorsed by the 2012 London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases (i.e. by 2020/2025). Based on the findings of our previous model comparison, we implemented technical refinements and tested the projections of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM against long-term epidemiological data from two West African transmission foci in Mali and Senegal where the observed prevalence of infection was brought to zero circa 2007-2009 after 15-17 years of mass ivermectin treatment...
March 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28279454/comparison-and-validation-of-two-mathematical-models-for-the-impact-of-mass-drug-administration-on-ascaris-lumbricoides-and-hookworm-infection
#16
Luc E Coffeng, James E Truscott, Sam H Farrell, Hugo C Turner, Rajiv Sarkar, Gagandeep Kang, Sake J de Vlas, Roy M Anderson
The predictions of two mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm infection and the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) are compared, using data from India. One model has an age structured partial differential equation (PDE) deterministic framework for the distribution of parasite numbers per host and sexual mating. The second model is an individual-based stochastic model. Baseline data acquired prior to treatment are used to estimate key transmission parameters, and forward projections are made, given the known MDA population coverage...
March 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28279453/a-comparison-of-two-mathematical-models-of-the-impact-of-mass-drug-administration-on-the-transmission-and-control-of-schistosomiasis
#17
J E Truscott, D Gurarie, R Alsallaq, J Toor, N Yoon, S H Farrell, H C Turner, A E Phillips, H O Aurelio, J Ferro, C H King, R M Anderson
The predictions of two mathematical models describing the transmission dynamics of schistosome infection and the impact of mass drug administration are compared. The models differ in their description of the dynamics of the parasites within the host population and in their representation of the stages of the parasite lifecycle outside of the host. Key parameters are estimated from data collected in northern Mozambique from 2011 to 2015. This type of data set is valuable for model validation as treatment prior to the study was minimal...
March 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28279452/predicting-lymphatic-filariasis-transmission-and-elimination-dynamics-using-a-multi-model-ensemble-framework
#18
Morgan E Smith, Brajendra K Singh, Michael A Irvine, Wilma A Stolk, Swaminathan Subramanian, T Déirdre Hollingsworth, Edwin Michael
Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG)...
March 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28279451/data-driven-models-to-predict-the-elimination-of-sleeping-sickness-in-former-equateur-province-of-drc
#19
K S Rock, A Pandey, M L Ndeffo-Mbah, K E Atkins, C Lumbala, A Galvani, M J Keeling
Approaching disease elimination, it is crucial to be able to assess progress towards key objectives using quantitative tools. For Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), the ultimate goal is to stop transmission by 2030, while intermediary targets include elimination as a public health problem - defined as <1 new case per 10,000 inhabitants in 90% of foci, and <2000 reported cases by 2020. Using two independent mathematical models, this study assessed the achievability of these goals in the former Equateur province of the Democratic Republic of Congo, which historically had endemic levels of disease...
March 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28279450/learning-from-multi-model-comparisons-collaboration-leads-to-insights-but-limitations-remain
#20
T D Hollingsworth, G F Medley
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
March 2017: Epidemics
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