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Epidemics

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29137859/dynamics-and-control-of-infections-on-social-networks-of-population-types
#1
Brian G Williams, Christopher Dye
Random mixing in host populations has been a convenient simplifying assumption in the study of epidemics, but neglects important differences in contact rates within and between population groups. For HIV/AIDS, the assumption of random mixing is inappropriate for epidemics that are concentrated in groups of people at high risk, including female sex workers (FSW) and their male clients (MCF), injecting drug users (IDU) and men who have sex with men (MSM). To find out who transmits infection to whom and how that affects the spread and containment of infection remains a major empirical challenge in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS...
October 26, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29126933/the-rapidd-ebola-forecasting-challenge-special-issue-preface
#2
EDITORIAL
Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Gerardo Chowell, Alessandro Vespignani
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
October 24, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29089285/comparison-of-cluster-based-and-source-attribution-methods-for-estimating-transmission-risk-using-large-hiv-sequence-databases
#3
Stéphane Le Vu, Oliver Ratmann, Valerie Delpech, Alison E Brown, O Noel Gill, Anna Tostevin, Christophe Fraser, Erik M Volz
Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors...
October 20, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28951016/the-rapidd-ebola-forecasting-challenge-model-description-and-synthetic-data-generation
#4
Marco Ajelli, Qian Zhang, Kaiyuan Sun, Stefano Merler, Laura Fumanelli, Gerardo Chowell, Lone Simonsen, Cecile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani
The Ebola forecasting challenge organized by the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) program of the Fogarty International Center relies on synthetic disease datasets generated by numerical simulations of a highly detailed spatially-structured agent-based model. We discuss here the architecture and technical steps of the challenge, leading to datasets that mimic as much as possible the data collection, reporting, and communication process experienced in the 2014-2015 West African Ebola outbreak...
September 20, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28958414/the-rapidd-ebola-forecasting-challenge-synthesis-and-lessons-learnt
#5
Cécile Viboud, Kaiyuan Sun, Robert Gaffey, Marco Ajelli, Laura Fumanelli, Stefano Merler, Qian Zhang, Gerardo Chowell, Lone Simonsen, Alessandro Vespignani
Infectious disease forecasting is gaining traction in the public health community; however, limited systematic comparisons of model performance exist. Here we present the results of a synthetic forecasting challenge inspired by the West African Ebola crisis in 2014-2015 and involving 16 international academic teams and US government agencies, and compare the predictive performance of 8 independent modeling approaches. Challenge participants were invited to predict 140 epidemiological targets across 5 different time points of 4 synthetic Ebola outbreaks, each involving different levels of interventions and "fog of war" in outbreak data made available for predictions...
August 26, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28487207/effectiveness-of-personal-protective-measures-in-reducing-pandemic-influenza-transmission-a-systematic-review-and-meta-analysis
#6
REVIEW
Patrick Saunders-Hastings, James A G Crispo, Lindsey Sikora, Daniel Krewski
The goal of this review was to examine the effectiveness of personal protective measures in preventing pandemic influenza transmission in human populations. We collected primary studies from Medline, Embase, PubMed, Cochrane Library, CINAHL and grey literature. Where appropriate, random effects meta-analyses were conducted using inverse variance statistical calculations. Meta-analyses suggest that regular hand hygiene provided a significant protective effect (OR=0.62; 95% CI 0.52-0.73; I(2)=0%), and facemask use provided a non-significant protective effect (OR=0...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28416219/displacement-of-sexual-partnerships-in-trials-of-sexual-behavior-interventions-a-model-based-assessment-of-consequences
#7
Alethea W McCormick, Nadia N Abuelezam, Thomas Fussell, George R Seage, Marc Lipsitch
We investigated the impact of the displacement of sexual activity from adherent recipients of an intervention to others within or outside a trial population on the results from hypothetical trials of different sexual behavior interventions. A short-term model of HIV-prevention interventions that lead to female rejection of male partnership requests showed the impact of displacement expected at the start of a trial. An agent-based model, with sexual mixing and other South African specific demographics, evaluated consequences of displacement for sexual behavior interventions targeting young females in South Africa...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28395850/the-impact-of-stratified-immunity-on-the-transmission-dynamics-of-influenza
#8
Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin van Leeuwen, Steven Riley
Although empirical studies show that protection against influenza infection in humans is closely related to antibody titres, influenza epidemics are often described under the assumption that individuals are either susceptible or not. Here we develop a model in which antibody titre classes are enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Fitting only with pre- and post-wave serological data during 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong, we demonstrate that with stratified immunity, the timing and the magnitude of the epidemic dynamics can be reconstructed more accurately than is possible with binary seropositivity data...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28365331/on-the-duration-of-the-period-between-exposure-to-hiv-and-detectable-infection
#9
Bernhard P Konrad, Darlene Taylor, Jessica M Conway, Gina S Ogilvie, Daniel Coombs
HIV infection cannot be detected immediately after exposure because plasma viral loads are too small initially. The duration of this phase of infection (the "eclipse period") is difficult to estimate because precise dates of exposure are rarely known. Therefore, the reliability of clinical HIV testing during the first few weeks of infection is unknown, creating anxiety among HIV-exposed individuals and their physicians. We address this by fitting stochastic models of early HIV infection to detailed viral load records for 78 plasma donors, taken during the period of exposure and infection...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28359662/assessing-the-transmission-dynamics-of-measles-in-japan-2016
#10
Hiroshi Nishiura, Kenji Mizumoto, Yusuke Asai
OBJECTIVES: Despite the verification of measles elimination, Japan experienced multiple generations of measles transmission following importation events in 2016. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the transmission dynamics of measles in Japan, 2016, estimating the transmission potential in the partially vaccinated population. METHODS: All diagnosed measles cases were notified to the government, and the present study analyzed two pieces of datasets independently, i...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28351673/elucidating-transmission-dynamics-and-host-parasite-vector-relationships-for-rodent-borne-bartonella-spp-in-madagascar
#11
Cara E Brook, Ying Bai, Emily O Yu, Hafaliana C Ranaivoson, Haewon Shin, Andrew P Dobson, C Jessica E Metcalf, Michael Y Kosoy, Katharina Dittmar
Bartonella spp. are erythrocytic bacteria transmitted via arthropod vectors, which infect a broad range of vertebrate hosts, including humans. We investigated transmission dynamics and host-parasite-vector relationships for potentially zoonotic Bartonella spp. in invasive Rattus rattus hosts and associated arthropod ectoparasites in Madagascar. We identified five distinct species of Bartonella (B. elizabethae 1, B. elizabethae 2, B. phoceensis 1, B. rattimassiliensis 1, and B. tribocorum 1) infecting R. rattus rodents and their ectoparasites...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28325494/modelling-h5n1-in-bangladesh-across-spatial-scales-model-complexity-and-zoonotic-transmission-risk
#12
Edward M Hill, Thomas House, Madhur S Dhingra, Wantanee Kalpravidh, Subhash Morzaria, Muzaffar G Osmani, Mat Yamage, Xiangming Xiao, Marius Gilbert, Michael J Tildesley
Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human-animal interface...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28283373/dynamics-affecting-the-risk-of-silent-circulation-when-oral-polio-vaccination-is-stopped
#13
J S Koopman, C J Henry, J H Park, M C Eisenberg, E L Ionides, J N Eisenberg
Waning immunity could allow transmission of polioviruses without causing poliomyelitis by promoting silent circulation (SC). Undetected SC when oral polio vaccine (OPV) use is stopped could cause difficult to control epidemics. Little is known about waning. To develop theory about what generates SC, we modeled a range of waning patterns. We varied both OPV and wild polio virus (WPV) transmissibility, the time from beginning vaccination to reaching low polio levels, and the infection to paralysis ratio (IPR)...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28916210/modelling-multi-site-transmission-of-the-human-papillomavirus-and-its-impact-on-vaccination-effectiveness
#14
P Lemieux-Mellouki, M Drolet, M Jit, G Gingras, M Brisson
OBJECTIVE: Previous HPV models have only included genital transmission, when evidence suggests that transmission between several anatomical sites occurs. We compared model predictions of population-level HPV vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV16 infection in women, using a 1) uni-site (genital site), and a 2) multi-site model (genital and one extragenital site). METHODS: We developed a uni-site and a multi-site deterministic HPV transmission model, assuming natural immunity was either site-specific or systemic...
August 25, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28803069/estimating-the-reproductive-number-total-outbreak-size-and-reporting-rates-for-zika-epidemics-in-south-and-central-america
#15
Deborah P Shutt, Carrie A Manore, Stephen Pankavich, Aaron T Porter, Sara Y Del Valle
As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification...
July 13, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28732684/the-impact-of-current-infection-levels-on-the-cost-benefit-of-vaccination
#16
Matt J Keeling, Katherine A Broadfoot, Samik Datta
When considering a new vaccine programme or modifying an existing one, economic cost-benefit analysis, underpinned by predictive epidemiological modelling, is a key component. This analysis is intimately linked to the willingness to pay for additional QALYs (quality-adjusted life-years) gained; currently in England and Wales a health programme is economically viable if the cost per QALY gained is less than £ 20,000, and models are often used to assess if a vaccine programme is likely to fall below this threshold cost...
July 8, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28688996/zika-virus-dynamics-when-does-sexual-transmission-matter
#17
Ondrej Maxian, Anna Neufeld, Emma J Talis, Lauren M Childs, Julie C Blackwood
The Zika virus (ZIKV) has captured worldwide attention with the ongoing epidemic in South America and its link to severe birth defects, most notably microcephaly. ZIKV is spread to humans through a combination of vector and sexual transmission, but the relative contribution of these transmission routes to the overall epidemic remains largely unknown. Furthermore, a disparity in the reported number of infections between males and females has been observed. We develop a mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics of ZIKV to determine the processes driving the observed epidemic patterns...
June 29, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28641948/optimally-capturing-latency-dynamics-in-models-of-tuberculosis-transmission
#18
Romain Ragonnet, James M Trauer, Nick Scott, Michael T Meehan, Justin T Denholm, Emma S McBryde
Although different structures are used in modern tuberculosis (TB) models to simulate TB latency, it remains unclear whether they are all capable of reproducing the particular activation dynamics empirically observed. We aimed to determine which of these structures replicate the dynamics of progression accurately. We reviewed 88 TB-modelling articles and classified them according to the latency structure employed. We then fitted these different models to the activation dynamics observed from 1352 infected contacts diagnosed in Victoria (Australia) and Amsterdam (Netherlands) to obtain parameter estimates...
June 16, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28666604/a-human-time-dose-response-model-for-q-fever
#19
Charles W Heppell, Joseph R Egan, Ian Hall
The causative agent of Q fever, Coxiella burnetii, has the potential to be developed for use in biological warfare and it is classified as a bioterrorism threat agent by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and as a category B select agent by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). In this paper we focus on the in-host properties that arise when an individual inhales a dose of C. burnetii and establish a human time-dose response model. We also propagate uncertainty throughout the model allowing us to robustly estimate key properties including the infectious dose and incubation period...
June 15, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28479050/corrigendum-to-impact-of-waning-acquired-immunity-and-asymptomatic-infections-on-case-control-studies-for-enteric-pathogens-epidemics-17-2016-56-63
#20
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