journal
MENU ▼
Read by QxMD icon Read
search

Epidemics

journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29279186/digital-dermatitis-in-dairy-cattle-the-contribution-of-different-disease-classes-to-transmission
#1
Floor Biemans, Piter Bijma, Natasja M Boots, Mart C M de Jong
Digital Dermatitis (DD) is a claw disease mainly affecting the hind feet of dairy cattle. Digital Dermatitis is an infectious disease, transmitted via the environment, where the infectious "agent" is a combination of bacteria. The standardized classification for DD lesions developed by Döpfer et al. (1997) and extended by Berry et al. (2012) has six distinct classes: healthy (M0), an active granulomatous area of 0-2 cm (M1), an ulcerative lesion of >2 cm (M2), an ulcerative lesion covered by a scab (M3), alteration of the skin (M4), and a combination of M4 and M1 (M4...
December 22, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29279187/the-importance-of-being-urgent-the-impact-of-surveillance-target-and-scale-on-mosquito-borne-disease-control
#2
Samantha R Schwab, Chris M Stone, Dina M Fonseca, Nina H Fefferman
With the emergence or re-emergence of numerous mosquito-borne diseases in recent years, effective methods for emergency vector control responses are necessary to reduce human infections. Current vector control practices often vary significantly between different jurisdictions, and are executed independently and at different spatial scales. Various types of surveillance information (e.g. number of human infections or adult mosquitoes) trigger the implementation of control measures, though the target and scale of surveillance vary locally...
December 16, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29329958/contact-tracing-for-the-control-of-infectious-disease-epidemics-chronic-wasting-disease-in-deer-farms
#3
Chris Rorres, Maria Romano, Jennifer A Miller, Jana M Mossey, Tony H Grubesic, David E Zellner, Gary Smith
Contact tracing is a crucial component of the control of many infectious diseases, but is an arduous and time consuming process. Procedures that increase the efficiency of contact tracing increase the chance that effective controls can be implemented sooner and thus reduce the magnitude of the epidemic. We illustrate a procedure using Graph Theory in the context of infectious disease epidemics of farmed animals in which the epidemics are driven mainly by the shipment of animals between farms. Specifically, we created a directed graph of the recorded shipments of deer between deer farms in Pennsylvania over a timeframe and asked how the properties of the graph could be exploited to make contact tracing more efficient should Chronic Wasting Disease (a prion disease of deer) be discovered in one of the farms...
December 14, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29306640/species-interactions-may-help-explain-the-erratic-periodicity-of-whooping-cough-dynamics
#4
Samit Bhattacharyya, Matthew J Ferrari, Ottar N Bjørnstad
Incidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonality, stochasticity, variable recruitment of susceptible individuals via birth, immunization, and immune boosting. We propose an alternative hypothesis to describe the variability in periodicity - the intricate dynamical variability of whooping cough may arise from interactions between its dominant etiological agents of Bordetella pertussis and Bordetella parapertussis...
December 14, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29273280/epidemix-an-interactive-multi-model-application-for-teaching-and-visualizing-infectious-disease-transmission
#5
Ulrich Muellner, Guillaume Fournié, Petra Muellner, Christina Ahlstrom, Dirk U Pfeiffer
Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing policy questions, especially through the assessment of the trajectory and scale of outbreaks, and the evaluation of control interventions. However, their mathematical formulation means that they may appear as a "black box" to those without the appropriate mathematical background...
December 11, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29289499/an-infectious-way-to-teach-students-about-outbreaks
#6
Íde Cremin, Oliver Watson, Alastair Heffernan, Natsuko Imai, Norin Ahmed, Sandra Bivegete, Teresia Kimani, Demetris Kyriacou, Preveina Mahadevan, Rima Mustafa, Panagiota Pagoni, Marisa Sophiea, Charlie Whittaker, Leo Beacroft, Steven Riley, Matthew C Fisher
The study of infectious disease outbreaks is required to train today's epidemiologists. A typical way to introduce and explain key epidemiological concepts is through the analysis of a historical outbreak. There are, however, few training options that explicitly utilise real-time simulated stochastic outbreaks where the participants themselves comprise the dataset they subsequently analyse. In this paper, we present a teaching exercise in which an infectious disease outbreak is simulated over a five-day period and subsequently analysed...
December 9, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29223580/modeling-hiv-disease-progression-and-transmission-at-population-level-the-potential-impact-of-modifying-disease-progression-in-hiv-treatment-programs
#7
Jennifer M Ross, Roger Ying, Connie L Celum, Jared M Baeten, Katherine K Thomas, Pamela M Murnane, Heidi van Rooyen, James P Hughes, Ruanne V Barnabas
INTRODUCTION: Mathematical models that incorporate HIV disease progression dynamics can estimate the potential impact of strategies that delay HIV disease progression and reduce infectiousness for persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Suppressive treatment of HIV-positive persons co-infected with herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) with valacyclovir, an HSV-2 antiviral, can lower HIV viral load, but the impact of partially-suppressive valacyclovir relative to fully-suppressive ART on population HIV transmission has not been estimated...
December 5, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29233546/quantitative-risk-assessment-of-salmon-louse-induced-mortality-of-seaward-migrating-post-smolt-atlantic-salmon
#8
Anja Bråthen Kristoffersen, Lars Qviller, Kari Olli Helgesen, Knut Wiik Vollset, Hildegunn Viljugrein, Peder Andreas Jansen
The Norwegian government recently implemented a new management system to regulate salmon farming in Norway, aiming to promote environmentally sustainable growth in the aquaculture industry. The Norwegian coast has been divided into 13 production zones and the volume of salmonid production in the zones will be regulated based on salmon lice effects on wild salmonids. Here we present a model for assessing salmon louse-induced mortality of seaward-migrating post-smolts of Atlantic salmon. The model quantifies expected salmon lice infestations and louse-induced mortality of migrating post-smolt salmon from 401 salmon rivers draining into Norwegian coastal waters...
December 2, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29137859/dynamics-and-control-of-infections-on-social-networks-of-population-types
#9
Brian G Williams, Christopher Dye
Random mixing in host populations has been a convenient simplifying assumption in the study of epidemics, but neglects important differences in contact rates within and between population groups. For HIV/AIDS, the assumption of random mixing is inappropriate for epidemics that are concentrated in groups of people at high risk, including female sex workers (FSW) and their male clients (MCF), injecting drug users (IDU) and men who have sex with men (MSM). To find out who transmits infection to whom and how that affects the spread and containment of infection remains a major empirical challenge in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS...
October 26, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29126933/the-rapidd-ebola-forecasting-challenge-special-issue-preface
#10
EDITORIAL
Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Gerardo Chowell, Alessandro Vespignani
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
October 24, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29089285/comparison-of-cluster-based-and-source-attribution-methods-for-estimating-transmission-risk-using-large-hiv-sequence-databases
#11
Stéphane Le Vu, Oliver Ratmann, Valerie Delpech, Alison E Brown, O Noel Gill, Anna Tostevin, Christophe Fraser, Erik M Volz
Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors...
October 20, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28951016/the-rapidd-ebola-forecasting-challenge-model-description-and-synthetic-data-generation
#12
Marco Ajelli, Qian Zhang, Kaiyuan Sun, Stefano Merler, Laura Fumanelli, Gerardo Chowell, Lone Simonsen, Cecile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani
The Ebola forecasting challenge organized by the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) program of the Fogarty International Center relies on synthetic disease datasets generated by numerical simulations of a highly detailed spatially-structured agent-based model. We discuss here the architecture and technical steps of the challenge, leading to datasets that mimic as much as possible the data collection, reporting, and communication process experienced in the 2014-2015 West African Ebola outbreak...
September 20, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28487207/effectiveness-of-personal-protective-measures-in-reducing-pandemic-influenza-transmission-a-systematic-review-and-meta-analysis
#13
REVIEW
Patrick Saunders-Hastings, James A G Crispo, Lindsey Sikora, Daniel Krewski
The goal of this review was to examine the effectiveness of personal protective measures in preventing pandemic influenza transmission in human populations. We collected primary studies from Medline, Embase, PubMed, Cochrane Library, CINAHL and grey literature. Where appropriate, random effects meta-analyses were conducted using inverse variance statistical calculations. Meta-analyses suggest that regular hand hygiene provided a significant protective effect (OR=0.62; 95% CI 0.52-0.73; I(2)=0%), and facemask use provided a non-significant protective effect (OR=0...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28416219/displacement-of-sexual-partnerships-in-trials-of-sexual-behavior-interventions-a-model-based-assessment-of-consequences
#14
Alethea W McCormick, Nadia N Abuelezam, Thomas Fussell, George R Seage, Marc Lipsitch
We investigated the impact of the displacement of sexual activity from adherent recipients of an intervention to others within or outside a trial population on the results from hypothetical trials of different sexual behavior interventions. A short-term model of HIV-prevention interventions that lead to female rejection of male partnership requests showed the impact of displacement expected at the start of a trial. An agent-based model, with sexual mixing and other South African specific demographics, evaluated consequences of displacement for sexual behavior interventions targeting young females in South Africa...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28395850/the-impact-of-stratified-immunity-on-the-transmission-dynamics-of-influenza
#15
Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin van Leeuwen, Steven Riley
Although empirical studies show that protection against influenza infection in humans is closely related to antibody titres, influenza epidemics are often described under the assumption that individuals are either susceptible or not. Here we develop a model in which antibody titre classes are enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Fitting only with pre- and post-wave serological data during 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong, we demonstrate that with stratified immunity, the timing and the magnitude of the epidemic dynamics can be reconstructed more accurately than is possible with binary seropositivity data...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28365331/on-the-duration-of-the-period-between-exposure-to-hiv-and-detectable-infection
#16
Bernhard P Konrad, Darlene Taylor, Jessica M Conway, Gina S Ogilvie, Daniel Coombs
HIV infection cannot be detected immediately after exposure because plasma viral loads are too small initially. The duration of this phase of infection (the "eclipse period") is difficult to estimate because precise dates of exposure are rarely known. Therefore, the reliability of clinical HIV testing during the first few weeks of infection is unknown, creating anxiety among HIV-exposed individuals and their physicians. We address this by fitting stochastic models of early HIV infection to detailed viral load records for 78 plasma donors, taken during the period of exposure and infection...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28359662/assessing-the-transmission-dynamics-of-measles-in-japan-2016
#17
Hiroshi Nishiura, Kenji Mizumoto, Yusuke Asai
OBJECTIVES: Despite the verification of measles elimination, Japan experienced multiple generations of measles transmission following importation events in 2016. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the transmission dynamics of measles in Japan, 2016, estimating the transmission potential in the partially vaccinated population. METHODS: All diagnosed measles cases were notified to the government, and the present study analyzed two pieces of datasets independently, i...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28351673/elucidating-transmission-dynamics-and-host-parasite-vector-relationships-for-rodent-borne-bartonella-spp-in-madagascar
#18
Cara E Brook, Ying Bai, Emily O Yu, Hafaliana C Ranaivoson, Haewon Shin, Andrew P Dobson, C Jessica E Metcalf, Michael Y Kosoy, Katharina Dittmar
Bartonella spp. are erythrocytic bacteria transmitted via arthropod vectors, which infect a broad range of vertebrate hosts, including humans. We investigated transmission dynamics and host-parasite-vector relationships for potentially zoonotic Bartonella spp. in invasive Rattus rattus hosts and associated arthropod ectoparasites in Madagascar. We identified five distinct species of Bartonella (B. elizabethae 1, B. elizabethae 2, B. phoceensis 1, B. rattimassiliensis 1, and B. tribocorum 1) infecting R. rattus rodents and their ectoparasites...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28325494/modelling-h5n1-in-bangladesh-across-spatial-scales-model-complexity-and-zoonotic-transmission-risk
#19
Edward M Hill, Thomas House, Madhur S Dhingra, Wantanee Kalpravidh, Subhash Morzaria, Muzaffar G Osmani, Mat Yamage, Xiangming Xiao, Marius Gilbert, Michael J Tildesley
Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human-animal interface...
September 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28283373/dynamics-affecting-the-risk-of-silent-circulation-when-oral-polio-vaccination-is-stopped
#20
J S Koopman, C J Henry, J H Park, M C Eisenberg, E L Ionides, J N Eisenberg
Waning immunity could allow transmission of polioviruses without causing poliomyelitis by promoting silent circulation (SC). Undetected SC when oral polio vaccine (OPV) use is stopped could cause difficult to control epidemics. Little is known about waning. To develop theory about what generates SC, we modeled a range of waning patterns. We varied both OPV and wild polio virus (WPV) transmissibility, the time from beginning vaccination to reaching low polio levels, and the infection to paralysis ratio (IPR)...
September 2017: Epidemics
journal
journal
42159
1
2
Fetch more papers »
Fetching more papers... Fetching...
Read by QxMD. Sign in or create an account to discover new knowledge that matter to you.
Remove bar
Read by QxMD icon Read
×

Search Tips

Use Boolean operators: AND/OR

diabetic AND foot
diabetes OR diabetic

Exclude a word using the 'minus' sign

Virchow -triad

Use Parentheses

water AND (cup OR glass)

Add an asterisk (*) at end of a word to include word stems

Neuro* will search for Neurology, Neuroscientist, Neurological, and so on

Use quotes to search for an exact phrase

"primary prevention of cancer"
(heart or cardiac or cardio*) AND arrest -"American Heart Association"