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Pharmaceutical Statistics

Tobias Mütze, Heinz Schmidli, Tim Friede
Prior information is often incorporated informally when planning a clinical trial. Here, we present an approach on how to incorporate prior information, such as data from historical clinical trials, into the nuisance parameter-based sample size re-estimation in a design with an internal pilot study. We focus on trials with continuous endpoints in which the outcome variance is the nuisance parameter. For planning and analyzing the trial, frequentist methods are considered. Moreover, the external information on the variance is summarized by the Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive approach...
November 27, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Abidemi K Adeniji, Jesse Y Hsu, Abdus S Wahed
The product limit or Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimator is commonly used to estimate the survival function in the presence of incomplete time to event. Application of this method assumes inherently that the occurrence of an event is known with certainty. However, the clinical diagnosis of an event is often subject to misclassification due to assay error or adjudication error, by which the event is assessed with some uncertainty. In the presence of such errors, the true distribution of the time to first event would not be estimated accurately using the KM method...
November 26, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Steven Sun, Grace Liu, Tianmeng Lyu, Fubo Xue, Tzu-Min Yeh, Sudhakar Rao
For clinical trials with time-to-event as the primary endpoint, the clinical cutoff is often event-driven and the log-rank test is the most commonly used statistical method for evaluating treatment effect. However, this method relies on the proportional hazards assumption in that it has the maximal power in this circumstance. In certain disease areas or populations, some patients can be curable and never experience the events despite a long follow-up. The event accumulation may dry out after a certain period of follow-up and the treatment effect could be reflected as the combination of improvement of cure rate and the delay of events for those uncurable patients...
November 20, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Peter Zhang, Kevin Carroll, Mary Hobart, Carole Augustine, Gary Koch
Despite advances in clinical trial design, failure rates near 80% in phase 2 and 50% in phase 3 have recently been reported. The challenges to successful drug development are particularly acute in central nervous system trials such as for pain, schizophrenia, mania, and depression because high-placebo response rates lessen assay sensitivity, diminish estimated treatment effect sizes, and thereby decrease statistical power. This paper addresses the importance of rigorous patient selection in major depressive disorder trials through an enhanced enrichment paradigm...
November 19, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
G Frank Liu
Traditionally, noninferiority hypotheses have been tested using a frequentist method with a fixed margin. Given that information for the control group is often available from previous studies, it is interesting to consider a Bayesian approach in which information is "borrowed" for the control group to improve efficiency. However, construction of an appropriate informative prior can be challenging. In this paper, we consider a hybrid Bayesian approach for testing noninferiority hypotheses in studies with a binary endpoint...
November 10, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Corine Baljé-Volkers, Thembile Mzolo, Erik Talens, Pieta IJzerman-Boon, Edwin Van den Heuvel
Similarity in bioassays means that the test preparation behaves as a dilution of the standard preparation with respect to their biological effect. Thus, similarity must be investigated to confirm this biological property. Historically, this was typically conducted with traditional hypothesis testing, but this has received substantial criticism. Failing to reject similarity does not imply that the 2 preparations are similar. Also, rejecting similarity when bioassay variability is small might simply demonstrate a nonrelevant deviation in similarity...
November 6, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Bo Huang
Immuno-oncology has emerged as an exciting new approach to cancer treatment. Common immunotherapy approaches include cancer vaccine, effector cell therapy, and T-cell-stimulating antibody. Checkpoint inhibitors such as cytotoxic T lymphocyte-associated antigen 4 and programmed death-1/L1 antagonists have shown promising results in multiple indications in solid tumors and hematology. However, the mechanisms of action of these novel drugs pose unique statistical challenges in the accurate evaluation of clinical safety and efficacy, including late-onset toxicity, dose optimization, evaluation of combination agents, pseudoprogression, and delayed and lasting clinical activity...
November 2, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Xiangmin Zhang, Yeh-Fong Chen, Roy Tamura
To deal with high placebo response in clinical trials for psychiatric and other diseases, different enrichment designs, such as the sequential parallel design, two-way enriched design, and sequential enriched design, have been proposed and implemented recently. Depending on the historical trial information and the trial sponsors' resources, detailed design elements are needed for determining which design to adopt. To assist in making more suitable decisions, we perform evaluations for selecting required design elements in terms of power optimization and sample size planning...
November 1, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Jixian Wang
Survival functions are often estimated by nonparametric estimators such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator. For valid estimation, proper adjustment for confounding factors is needed when treatment assignment may depend on confounding factors. Inverse probability weighting is a commonly used approach, especially when there is a large number of potential confounders to adjust for. Direct adjustment may also be used if the relationship between the time-to-event and all confounders can be modeled. However, either approach requires a correctly specified model for the relationship between confounders and treatment allocation or between confounders and the time-to-event...
November 1, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Qingzhao Yu, Lin Zhu, Han Zhu
Bayesian sequential and adaptive randomization designs are gaining popularity in clinical trials thanks to their potentials to reduce the number of required participants and save resources. We propose a Bayesian sequential design with adaptive randomization rates so as to more efficiently attribute newly recruited patients to different treatment arms. In this paper, we consider 2-arm clinical trials. Patients are allocated to the 2 arms with a randomization rate to achieve minimum variance for the test statistic...
October 4, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Pål Haugen, Gunnar Skov Simonsen, Raul Primicerio, Anne-Sofie Furberg, Lars Småbrekke
High antibiotic consumption rates are associated to high prevalence of antimicrobial resistance. Geographical differences in dispensing rates of antibiotics are frequently analysed using statistical methods addressing the central tendency of the data. Yet, examining extreme quantiles may be of equal or greater interest if the problem relates to the extremes of consumption rates, as is the case for antimicrobial resistance. The objective of this study was to investigate how geographic location (latitude) and municipality population size affect antibiotic consumption in Norway...
September 29, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Peter F Thall, Peter Mueller, Yanxun Xu, Michele Guindani
Many commonly used statistical methods for data analysis or clinical trial design rely on incorrect assumptions or assume an over-simplified framework that ignores important information. Such statistical practices may lead to incorrect conclusions about treatment effects or clinical trial designs that are impractical or that do not accurately reflect the investigator's goals. Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models and methods are a very flexible new class of statistical tools that can overcome such limitations...
November 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Gu Mi
Because of the complexity of cancer biology, often the target pathway is not well understood at the time that phase III trials are initiated. A 2-stage trial design was previously proposed for identifying a subgroup of interest in a learn stage, on the basis of 1 or more baseline biomarkers, and then subsequently confirming it in a confirmation stage. In this article, we discuss some practical aspects of this type of design and describe an enhancement to this approach that can be built into the study randomization to increase the robustness of the evaluation...
September 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Shinjo Yada, Chikuma Hamada
Many new anticancer agents can be combined with existing drugs, as combining a number of drugs may be expected to have a better therapeutic effect than monotherapy owing to synergistic effects. Furthermore, to drive drug development and to reduce the associated cost, there has been a growing tendency to combine these as phase I/II trials. With respect to phase I/II oncology trials for the assessment of dose combinations, in the existing methodologies in which efficacy based on tumor response and safety based on toxicity are modeled as binary outcomes, it is not possible to enroll and treat the next cohort of patients unless the best overall response has been determined in the current cohort...
August 25, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Douglas F Arbetter, Purva Jain, Megan K Yee, Nathan Michalak, Adrian F Hernandez, Russell D Hull, Samuel Z Goldhaber, Robert A Harrington, Alex Gold, Alexander T Cohen, C Michael Gibson
Competing risk methods are time-to-event analyses that account for fatal and/or nonfatal events that may potentially alter or prevent a subject from experiencing the primary endpoint. Competing risk methods may provide a more accurate and less biased estimate of the incidence of an outcome but are rarely applied in cardiology trials. APEX investigated the efficacy of extended-duration betrixaban versus standard-duration enoxaparin to prevent a composite of symptomatic deep-vein thrombosis (proximal or distal), nonfatal pulmonary embolism, or venous thromboembolism (VTE)-related death in acute medically ill patients (n = 7513)...
August 24, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Fei Gao, Guanghan F Liu, Donglin Zeng, Lei Xu, Bridget Lin, Guoqing Diao, Gregory Golm, Joseph F Heyse, Joseph G Ibrahim
In clinical trials, missing data commonly arise through nonadherence to the randomized treatment or to study procedure. For trials in which recurrent event endpoints are of interests, conventional analyses using the proportional intensity model or the count model assume that the data are missing at random, which cannot be tested using the observed data alone. Thus, sensitivity analyses are recommended. We implement the control-based multiple imputation as sensitivity analyses for the recurrent event data. We model the recurrent event using a piecewise exponential proportional intensity model with frailty and sample the parameters from the posterior distribution...
August 22, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Wai Yin Yeung, Bruno Reigner, Ulrich Beyer, Cheikh Diack, Daniel Sabanés Bové, Giuseppe Palermo, Thomas Jaki
The main purpose of dose-escalation trials is to identify the dose(s) that is/are safe and efficacious for further investigations in later studies. In this paper, we introduce dose-escalation designs that incorporate both the dose-limiting events and dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs) and indicative responses of efficacy into the procedure. A flexible nonparametric model is used for modelling the continuous efficacy responses while a logistic model is used for the binary DLTs. Escalation decisions are based on the combination of the probabilities of DLTs and expected efficacy through a gain function...
July 9, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Peter J Laud
Several methods are available for generating confidence intervals for rate difference, rate ratio, or odds ratio, when comparing two independent binomial proportions or Poisson (exposure-adjusted) incidence rates. Most methods have some degree of systematic bias in one-sided coverage, so that a nominal 95% two-sided interval cannot be assumed to have tail probabilities of 2.5% at each end, and any associated hypothesis test is at risk of inflated type I error rate. Skewness-corrected asymptotic score methods have been shown to have superior equal-tailed coverage properties for the binomial case...
June 22, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Devan V Mehrotra, Fang Liu, Thomas Permutt
In some randomized (drug versus placebo) clinical trials, the estimand of interest is the between-treatment difference in population means of a clinical endpoint that is free from the confounding effects of "rescue" medication (e.g., HbA1c change from baseline at 24 weeks that would be observed without rescue medication regardless of whether or when the assigned treatment was discontinued). In such settings, a missing data problem arises if some patients prematurely discontinue from the trial or initiate rescue medication while in the trial, the latter necessitating the discarding of post-rescue data...
June 20, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
Qing Kang, Christopher I Vahl
Traditional bioavailability studies assess average bioequivalence (ABE) between the test (T) and reference (R) products under the crossover design with TR and RT sequences. With highly variable (HV) drugs whose intrasubject coefficient of variation in pharmacokinetic measures is 30% or greater, assertion of ABE becomes difficult due to the large sample sizes needed to achieve adequate power. In 2011, the FDA adopted a more relaxed, yet complex, ABE criterion and supplied a procedure to assess this criterion exclusively under TRR-RTR-RRT and TRTR-RTRT designs...
June 16, 2017: Pharmaceutical Statistics
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