Mathematical Medicine and Biology : a Journal of the IMA

As the SARS-CoV-2 virus spreads around the world new variants are appearing regularly. Although some countries have achieved very swift and successful vaccination campaigns, on a global scale the vast majority of the population is unvaccinated and new variants are proving more resistant to the current set of vaccines. We present a simple model of disease spread, which includes the evolution of new variants of a novel virus and varying vaccine effectiveness to these new strains. We show that rapid vaccine updates to target new strains are more effective than slow updates and containing spread through non-pharmaceutical interventions is vital while these vaccines are delivered...

Our aim in this paper is to study a mathematical model for high grade gliomas, taking into account lactates kinetics, as well as chemotherapy and antiangiogenic treatment. In particular, we prove the existence and uniqueness of biologically relevant solutions. We also perform numerical simulations based on different therapeutical situations that can be found in the literature. These simulations are consistent with what is expected in these situations.

We focus on modelling of cancer hyperthermia driven by the application of the magnetic field to iron oxide nanoparticles. We assume that the particles are interacting with the tumour environment by extravasating from the vessels into the interstitial space. We start from Darcy's and Stokes' problems in the interstitial and fluid vessels compartments. Advection-diffusion of nanoparticles takes place in both compartments (as well as uptake in the tumour interstitium), and a heat source proportional to the concentration of nanoparticles drives heat diffusion and convection in the system...

Estimating the longevity of an individual's immune response to the SARS-Cov-2 virus is vital for future planning, particularly of vaccine requirements. Neutralizing antibodies (Nabs) are increasingly being recognized as a correlate of protection and while there are many studies that follow the response of a cohort of people, each study alone is not enough to predict the long-term response. Studies use different assays to measure Nabs, making them hard to combine. We present a modelling method that can combine multiple datasets and can be updated as more detailed data becomes available...

Chronic wounds, such as venous leg ulcers, are difficult to treat and can reduce the quality of life for patients. Clinical trials have been conducted to identify the most effective venous leg ulcer treatments and the clinical factors that may indicate whether a wound will successfully heal. More recently, mathematical modelling has been used to gain insight into biological factors that may affect treatment success but are difficult to measure clinically, such as the rate of oxygen flow into wounded tissue...

In skeletal joints two layers of adjacent cartilage are often in relative motion. The individual cartilage layers are often modelled as a poroviscoelastic material. To model the relative motion, noting the separation of scales between the pore level and the macroscale, a homogenization based on multiple scale asymptotic analysis has been used in this study to derive a macroscale model for the relative translation of two poroviscoelastic layers separated by a very thin layer of fluid. In particular the fluid layer thickness is essentially zero at the macroscale so that the two poroviscoelastic layers are effectively in contact and their interaction is captured in the derived model via a set of interfacial conditions, including a generalization of the Beavers-Joseph condition at the interface between a viscous fluid and a porous medium...

The Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov (KPP) model, and generalizations thereof, involves simple reaction-diffusion equations for biological invasion that assume individuals in the population undergo linear diffusion with diffusivity $D$, and logistic proliferation with rate $\lambda $. For the Fisher-KPP model, biologically relevant initial conditions lead to long-time travelling wave solutions that move with speed $c=2\sqrt {\lambda D}$. Despite these attractive features, there are several biological limitations of travelling wave solutions of the Fisher-KPP model...

This paper reports a minimal model simulating the growth of a Lewy body (LB). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model simulating LB growth. The LB is assumed to consist of a central spherical core, which is composed of membrane fragments and various dysfunctional intracellular organelles, and a halo, which is composed of alpha-synuclein (α-syn) fibrils. Membrane fragments and α-syn monomers are assumed to be produced in the soma at constant rates. The growth of the core and the halo are simulated by the Finke-Watzky model...

The aim of the paper is to apply the stochastic optimal control problem in order to optimize the number of individual which will have the pre-exposure prophylaxis (PReP) treatment in the stochastic model for HIV/AIDS with PReP. By using the stochastic maximum principle, we derive the stochastic optimal control of PReP for the unconstrained control problem. Furthermore, by combining the stochastic maximum principle with a version of the Lagrange multiplier method, we solve the PReP problem for two different types of budget constrains with a given constrain for the costs (possible of different kind, transportation, price of the treatment, etc...

We propose a mathematical model to study the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) phenomenon. Here, we explore the interaction between macrophages, dengue virus and plasma cells, especially the effect of a limitation on plasma cell proliferation, which occurs due to immunological memory. The model has up to three equilibrium points: one virus-free equilibrium and two virus-presence equilibrium, depending on the value of two thresholds. We determine the existence regions for the model equilibrium points and their stability, a sensitivity analysis was performed in the model thresholds...

BACKGROUND: Digital tools are being developed to support contact tracing as part of the global effort to control the spread of COVID-19. These include smartphone apps, Bluetooth-based proximity detection, location tracking and automatic exposure notification features. Evidence on the effectiveness of alternative approaches to digital contact tracing is so far limited. METHODS: We use an age-structured branching process model of the transmission of COVID-19 in different settings to estimate the potential of manual contact tracing and digital tracing systems to help control the epidemic...

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) infection can involve all immune system components and can result in different disease outcomes. The antibiotic TB drugs require strict adherence to prevent both disease relapse and mutation of drug- and multidrug-resistant strains. To overcome the constraints of pathogen-directed therapy, host-directed therapy has attracted more attention in recent years as an adjunct therapy to enhance host immunity to fight against this intractable pathogen. The goal of this paper is to investigate in-host TB models to provide insights into therapy development...

The retinal tissue is highly metabolically active and is responsible for translating the visual stimuli into electrical signals to be delivered to the brain. A complex vascular structure ensures an adequate supply of blood and oxygen, which is essential for the function and survival of the retinal tissue. To date, a complete understanding of the configuration of the retinal vascular structures is still lacking. Optical coherence tomography angiography has made available a huge amount of imaging data regarding the main retinal capillary plexuses, namely the superficial capillary plexuses (SCP), intermediate capillary plexuses (ICP) and deep capillary plexuses (DCP)...

In this paper, we propose and analyse a compartmental model of COVID-19 to predict and control the outbreak. We first formulate a comprehensive mathematical model for the dynamical transmission of COVID-19 in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. We provide the basic properties of the model and compute the basic reproduction number $\mathcal {R}_0$ when the parameter values are constant. After, assuming continuous measurement of the weekly number of newly COVID-19 detected cases, newly deceased individuals and newly recovered individuals, the Ensemble of Kalman filter (EnKf) approach is used to estimate the unmeasured variables and unknown parameters, which are assumed to be time-dependent using real data of COVID-19...

In this paper, three stochastic mathematical models are developed for the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). These models take into account the known special characteristics of this disease such as the existence of infectious undetected cases and the different social and infectiousness conditions of infected people. In particular, they include a novel approach that considers the social structure, the fraction of detected cases over the real total infected cases, the influx of undetected infected people from outside the borders, as well as contact-tracing and quarantine period for travellers...

We propose a realistic model for the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic subject to the lockdown and quarantine measures, which takes into account the timedelay for recovery or death processes. The dynamic equations for the entire process are derived by adopting a kinetic-type reactions approach. More specifically, the lockdown and the quarantine measures are modelled by some kind of inhibitor reactions where susceptible and infected individuals can be trapped into inactive states. The dynamics for the recovered people is obtained by accounting people who are only traced back to hospitalized infected people...

Mathematical modelling of ionic electrodiffusion and water movement is emerging as a powerful avenue of investigation to provide a new physiological insight into brain homeostasis. However, in order to provide solid answers and resolve controversies, the accuracy of the predictions is essential. Ionic electrodiffusion models typically comprise non-trivial systems of non-linear and highly coupled partial and ordinary differential equations that govern phenomena on disparate time scales. Here, we study numerical challenges related to approximating these systems...

Totally asymmetric simple exclusion process (TASEP) modelling was shown to offer a parsimonious explanation for the experimentally confirmed ability of a single upstream open reading frames (uORFs) to upregulate downstream translation during the integrated stress response. As revealed by numerical simulations, the model predicts that reducing the density of scanning ribosomes upstream of certain uORFs increases the flow of ribosomes downstream. To gain a better insight into the mechanism which ensures the non-monotone relation between the upstream and downstream flows, in this work, we propose a phenomenological deterministic model approximating the TASEP model of the translation process...

Sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS), a commonly used laundry surfactant, has been known to cause some damage to epithelial cells in skin. Further, independent experiments have shown that a single laundry wash with rinsing leaves a residue of around 10% of the chemicals used in a wash cycle. A realistic nonlinear system of partial differential equations is developed for coupled water and solute transport through a drying porous medium when the solute has a mobile state (monomers) as well as an immobile state (micelles)...

Containment, aiming to prevent the epidemic stage of community-spreading altogether, and mitigation, aiming to merely 'flatten the curve' of a wide-ranged outbreak, constitute two qualitatively different approaches to combating an epidemic through non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here, we study a simple model of epidemic dynamics separating the population into two groups, namely a low-risk group and a high-risk group, for which different strategies are pursued. Due to synchronization effects, we find that maintaining a slower epidemic growth behaviour for the high-risk group is unstable against any finite coupling between the two groups...