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Climatic Change

Raphael J Nawrotzki, Jack DeWaard, Maryia Bakhtsiyarava, Jasmine Trang Ha
Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321)...
January 2017: Climatic Change
Julia A Ekstrom, Louise Bedsworth, Amanda Fencl
Understanding resource managers' perceptions of climate change, analytic capacity, and current adaptation activities can provide insight into what can help support adaptation processes at the local level. In California, where a major drought currently demonstrates some of the hardships that could be regularly encountered under a changing climate, we present results from a survey of drinking water utilities about the perceived threat, analytic capacity, and adaptation actions related to maintaining water quality in the face of climate change...
2017: Climatic Change
Jia Coco Liu, Loretta J Mickley, Melissa P Sulprizio, Francesca Dominici, Xu Yue, Keita Ebisu, Georgiana Brooke Anderson, Rafi F A Khan, Mercedes A Bravo, Michelle L Bell
Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly attributable to wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004-2009) and future (2046-2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model...
October 2016: Climatic Change
Carina J Gronlund, Antonella Zanobetti, Gregory A Wellenius, Joel D Schwartz, Marie S O'Neill
BACKGROUND: Extreme heat (EH) is a growing concern with climate change, and protecting human health requires knowledge of vulnerability factors. We evaluated whether associations between EH (maximum temperature > 97th percentile) and hospitalization for renal, heat and respiratory diseases among people ≥ 65 years differed by individual and area-level characteristics. METHODS: We used Medicare billing records, airport weather data, U.S. Census data and satellite land cover imagery in 109 US cities, May-September, 1992-2006, in a time-stratified case-crossover design...
June 2016: Climatic Change
Clark Gray, Erika Wise
Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification...
April 2016: Climatic Change
Anne M Waple, Sarah M Champion, Kenneth E Kunkel, Curt Tilmes
The third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) included goals for becoming a more timely, inclusive, rigorous, and sustained process, and for serving a wider variety of decision makers. In order to accomplish these goals, it was necessary to deliberately design an information management strategy that could serve multiple stakeholders and manage different types of information - from highly mature government-supported climate science data, to isolated practitioner-generated case study information - and to do so in ways that are consistent and appropriate for a highly influential assessment...
March 2016: Climatic Change
M A Hoque, P F D Scheelbeek, P Vineis, A E Khan, K M Ahmed, A P Butler
Drinking water in much of Asia, particularly in coastal and rural settings, is provided by a variety of sources, which are widely distributed and frequently managed at an individual or local community level. Coastal and near-inland drinking water sources in South and South East (SSE) Asia are vulnerable to contamination by seawater, most dramatically from tropical cyclone induced storm surges. This paper assesses spatial vulnerabilities to salinisation of drinking water sources due to meteorological variability and climate change along the (ca...
2016: Climatic Change
Thomas Mendlik, Andreas Gobiet
In climate change impact research it is crucial to carefully select the meteorological input for impact models. We present a method for model selection that enables the user to shrink the ensemble to a few representative members, conserving the model spread and accounting for model similarity. This is done in three steps: First, using principal component analysis for a multitude of meteorological parameters, to find common patterns of climate change within the multi-model ensemble. Second, detecting model similarities with regard to these multivariate patterns using cluster analysis...
2016: Climatic Change
Richard H Waring, Nicholas C Coops
A lengthening of the fire season, coupled with higher temperatures, increases the probability of fires throughout much of western North America. Although regional variation in the frequency of fires is well established, attempts to predict the occurrence of fire at a spatial resolution <10 km(2) have generally been unsuccessful. We hypothesized that predictions of fires might be improved if depletion of soil water reserves were coupled more directly to maximum leaf area index (LAImax) and stomatal behavior...
2016: Climatic Change
Kenneth E Kunkel, Richard Moss, Adam Parris
Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success...
2016: Climatic Change
Álvaro Fernández-Llamazares, María Elena Méndez-López, Isabel Díaz-Reviriego, Marissa F McBride, Aili Pyhälä, Antoni Rosell-Melé, Victoria Reyes-García
Indigenous societies hold a great deal of ethnoclimatological knowledge that could potentially be of key importance for both climate change science and local adaptation; yet, we lack studies examining how such knowledge might be shaped by media communication. This study systematically investigates the interplay between local observations of climate change and the reception of media information amongst the Tsimane', an indigenous society of Bolivian Amazonia where the scientific discourse of anthropogenic climate change has barely reached...
July 1, 2015: Climatic Change
S Lorenz, S Dessai, J Paavola, P M Forster
Many European countries have developed National Adaptation Strategies (NAS) to guide adaptation to the expected impacts of climate change. There is a need for more structured communication of the uncertainties related to future climate and its impacts so that adaptation actions can be planned and implemented effectively and efficiently. We develop a novel uncertainty assessment framework for comparing approaches to the inclusion and communication of physical science uncertainty, and use it to analyse ten European NAS...
2015: Climatic Change
S Saux Picart, J I Allen, M Butenschön, Y Artioli, L de Mora, S Wakelin, J Holt
Eutrophication is a process resulting from an increase in anthropogenic nutrient inputs from rivers and other sources, the consequences of which can include enhanced algal biomass, changes in plankton community composition and oxygen depletion near the seabed. Within the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, indicators (and associated threshold) have been identified to assess the eutrophication status of an ecosystem. Large databases of observations (in situ) are required to properly assess the eutrophication status...
2015: Climatic Change
R Dunford, P A Harrison, J Jäger, M D A Rounsevell, R Tinch
Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach...
2015: Climatic Change
Hanqin Tian, Guangsheng Chen, Chaoqun Lu, Xiaofeng Xu, Daniel J Hayes, Wei Ren, Shufen Pan, Deborah N Huntzinger, Steven C Wofsy
The terrestrial ecosystems of North America have been identified as a sink of atmospheric CO2 though there is no consensus on the magnitude. However, the emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) may offset or even overturn the climate cooling effect induced by the CO2 sink. Using a coupled biogeochemical model, in this study, we have estimated the combined global warming potentials (GWP) of CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes in North American terrestrial ecosystems and quantified the relative contributions of environmental factors to the GWP changes during 1979-2010...
2015: Climatic Change
Young-Min Kim, Ying Zhou, Yang Gao, Joshua S Fu, Brent A Johnson, Cheng Huang, Yang Liu
The spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057-2059) and base years (2001-2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4...
January 1, 2015: Climatic Change
James J Porter, Suraje Dessai, Emma L Tompkins
The UK Government's first National Adaptation Programme seeks to create a 'climate-ready society' capable of making well-informed and far-sighted decisions to address risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate, where individual households are expected to adapt when it is in their interest to do so. How, and to what extent, households are able to do this remains unclear. Like other developed countries, research on UK adaptation has focused predominately on public and private organisations. To fill that gap, a systematic literature review was conducted to understand what actions UK households have taken in response to, or in anticipation of, a changing climate; what drives or impedes these actions; and whether households will act autonomously...
2014: Climatic Change
Peter Scarborough, Paul N Appleby, Anja Mizdrak, Adam D M Briggs, Ruth C Travis, Kathryn E Bradbury, Timothy J Key
The production of animal-based foods is associated with higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than plant-based foods. The objective of this study was to estimate the difference in dietary GHG emissions between self-selected meat-eaters, fish-eaters, vegetarians and vegans in the UK. Subjects were participants in the EPIC-Oxford cohort study. The diets of 2,041 vegans, 15,751 vegetarians, 8,123 fish-eaters and 29,589 meat-eaters aged 20-79 were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Comparable GHG emissions parameters were developed for the underlying food codes using a dataset of GHG emissions for 94 food commodities in the UK, with a weighting for the global warming potential of each component gas...
2014: Climatic Change
John T Doyle, Margaret Hiza Redsteer, Margaret J Eggers
American Indians have unique vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change because of the links among ecosystems, cultural practices, and public health, but also as a result of limited resources available to address infrastructure needs. On the Crow Reservation in south-central Montana, a Northern Plains American Indian Reservation, there are community concerns about the consequences of climate change impacts for community health and local ecosystems. Observations made by Tribal Elders about decreasing annual snowfall and milder winter temperatures over the 20(th) century initiated an investigation of local climate and hydrologic data by the Tribal College...
October 2013: Climatic Change
Tiffany T Smith, Benjamin F Zaitchik, Julia M Gohlke
High temperatures and heat waves are related but not synonymous concepts. Heat waves, generally understood to be acute periods of extreme warmth, are relevant to a wide range of stakeholders because of the impacts that these events have on human health and activities and on natural environments. Perhaps because of the diversity of communities engaged in heat wave monitoring and research, there is no single, standard definition of a heat wave. Experts differ in which threshold values (absolute versus relative), duration and ancillary variables to incorporate into heat wave definitions...
June 2013: Climatic Change
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