Public Opinion Quarterly

Income redistribution and changes in redistributive policies are highly contested issues that often have a bearing on societal debate and electoral competition. Using European Social Survey data, we trace trends in public attitudes toward income redistribution in 18 European countries from 2002 to 2019, a time period which included the Great Recession, the 2015 migrant crisis, and an increase in income inequality. Although attitudes toward income redistribution were relatively stable, trends presented by countries grouped by welfare regime display considerable variation both among countries and among welfare regimes...

Do international shaming efforts affect citizens' support for government policies? While it is a frequent claim in the literature that shaming works through domestic politics, we know little about how and when international criticism affects domestic public opinion. We address this question through an originally designed survey experiment in Sweden, which (i) compares the effects of international shaming in two issue areas-human rights and climate change, and (ii) tests whether government responses to criticism moderate the impact of shaming...

Public opinion surveys are a fundamental tool to measure support for women's political rights. This article focuses on perceptions of women's suitability for leadership. To what extent do influential cross-country surveys that include such items suffer from measurement errors stemming from gender of interviewer effects? Building on the literature on social desirability, we expect that respondents are more likely to express preference for men's suitability as political leaders with male interviewers and more likely to state support for women's leadership when interviewed by a woman...

We explore the role of "political discontent" as a second dimension of American public opinion. Others have shown that a second dimension tends to capture social and/or racial attitudes. What happens when indicators of discontent are included in such analyses? Using data from two surveys and the ordered optimal classification (OOC) procedure, we scale seven items from the "discontent" literature alongside a larger set of questions that has been shown to capture the two-dimensional structure of mass opinion...

Deviant interviewer behavior is a potential hazard of interviewer-administered surveys, with interviewers fabricating entire interviews as the most severe form. Various statistical methods (e.g., cluster analysis) have been proposed to detect falsifiers. These methods often rely on falsification indicators aiming to measure differences between real and falsified data. However, due to a lack of real-world data, empirical evaluations and comparisons of different statistical methods and falsification indicators are scarce...

The late James A. Davis characterized American public opinion in the Reagan era as "conservative weather" amidst a liberalizing "climate." By climate, he meant differences between cohorts, while the weather referred to trends within cohorts. Thirty years later, the public opinion climate continues to get more liberal, as each successive cohort continues to be more liberal, on balance, than the ones that came before them. Recent weather complements that by being quite liberal, too. Specifically, 62 percent of variables analyzed were more liberal in recent birth cohorts than they were in the oldest ones, but just 5 percent were more conservative (some did not differ among cohorts, and some were neither liberal nor conservative)...

For decades, researchers have examined people's beliefs across countries and over time using national samples of citizens. Yet, in an era when economies, societies, and policymaking have become increasingly interconnected, nation-states may no longer be the only or most relevant units of analysis for studying public opinion. To examine what people think about politics on a global scale, we develop tools for measuring public opinion that allow us to transcend national and regional boundaries. Starting with the world as the unit of analysis and humans as the relevant population, we measure and then explore patterns and trends in human preferences for democratic government and political leaders with the help of surveys collected around the world since 1994...

We assess the ability of online employee-generated content in predicting consumption expenditures. In so doing, we aggregate millions of employee expectations for the next six-month business outlook of their employer and build an employee sentiment index. We test whether forward-looking employee sentiment can contribute to baseline models when forecasting aggregate consumption in the United States and compare its performance to well-established, survey-based consumer sentiment indexes. We reveal that online employee opinions have incremental information that can be used to augment the accuracy of consumption forecasting models and inform economic policy decisions...

Terrorists aim at influencing audiences beyond their immediate victims, but can only achieve this if an attack receives sufficient public attention. Previous research shows that terrorism can affect public opinion, but these studies are mainly based on emblematic single cases and relate to varying measures of influence, which are difficult to compare. This research focuses on the first-order effect of terrorism: attention. To analyze whether terrorists get attention, we combine a quasi-experimental approach for causal identification with a comparative design...

There is much concern today about the spread of fake news and the misinformation it can produce among the public. In this article, we investigate how the American public interprets accurate and inaccurate statements from the news. Moving beyond partisanship, we theorize that ideological and ethnoracial identities also shape individuals' interpretations of the news. We argue that people have incentives to interpret information they encounter in ways that favor their ideological and ethnoracial ingroups and that these incentives are particularly strong when ideological and ethnoracial identities align...

Recent election surprises, regime changes, and political shocks indicate that political agendas have become more fast-moving and volatile. The ability to measure the complex dynamics of agenda change and capture the nature and extent of volatility in political systems is therefore more crucial than ever before. This study proposes a definition and operationalization of volatility that combines insights from political science, communications, information theory, and computational techniques. The proposed measures of fractionalization and agenda change encompass the shifting salience of issues in the agenda as a whole and allow the study of agendas across different domains...

Smartphone sensors allow measurement of phenomena that are difficult or impossible to capture via self-report (e.g., geographical movement, physical activity). Sensors can reduce respondent burden by eliminating survey questions and improve measurement accuracy by replacing/augmenting self-reports. However, if respondents who are not willing to collect sensor data differ on critical attributes from those who are, the results can be biased. Research on the mechanisms of willingness to collect sensor data mostly comes from (nonprobability) online panels and is hypothetical (i...

Most people overestimate how many women have been elected to Congress and state legislatures, but this misinformation reduces with age. Multivariate analysis of our original survey data confirms that young people are prone to overestimating how many seats are held by women, and this pattern is especially sharp among male respondents. In addition, a memory of being represented by a woman in the past tends to inflate overestimates further. Erroneous thinking among the young may produce an "ignorance is bliss" effect by reducing the apparent need to elect more women to office and raising levels of trust in government...

The growing smartphone penetration and the integration of smartphones into people's everyday practices offer researchers opportunities to augment survey measurement with smartphone-sensor measurement or to replace self-reports. Potential benefits include lower measurement error, a widening of research questions, collection of in situ data, and a lowered respondent burden. However, privacy considerations and other concerns may lead to nonparticipation. To date, little is known about the mechanisms of willingness to share sensor data by the general population, and no evidence is available concerning the stability of willingness...

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs), which provide citizens with information on the party that best represents their political preferences, are often cited as evidence of the empowering capabilities of digital tools. Aside from the informational benefits of these voter guides, observational studies have suggested a strong effect on political participation and vote choice. However, existing impact evaluations have been limited by a reliance on convenience samples, lack of random assignment, or both. This raises questions about self-selection and the precise mechanisms underlying how voters learn about politics...

Cognitive complexity is a concept that allows scholars to distinguish unidimensional thinking from multidimensional thinking, which allows citizens to identify and integrate various perspectives of a topic. Especially in times of fake news, fact-free politics, and affective polarization, the news media would ideally foster such complex political understanding. The current paper introduces the method of cognitive mapping to measure cognitive complexity regarding citizens' understanding of the financial crisis, one of the most pressing political issues of the past decades...

No abstract text is available yet for this article.

Prospect theory states that the influential power of avoiding negative outcomes is stronger than that of achieving positive outcomes. In a survey context, this theory has been tested with respect to not only participation in a CATI survey, but also giving consent to data linkage in CATI surveys. No study, however, has tested the theory with respect to participation in a CAPI or web survey. This study does so in a mixed-mode panel context; it also tests the moderating effects of time-in-panel, response history, and mode protocol...

Several studies have shown that high response rates are not associated with low bias in survey data. This paper shows that, for face-to-face surveys, the relationship between response rates and bias is moderated by the type of sampling method used. Using data from Rounds 1 through 7 of the European Social Survey, we develop two measures of selection bias, then build models to explore how sampling method, response rate, and their interaction affect selection bias. When interviewers are involved in selecting the sample of households or respondents for the survey, high reported response rates can in fact be a sign of poor data quality...

Numerous surveys link interview data to administrative records, conditional on respondent consent, in order to explore new and innovative research questions. Optimizing the linkage consent rate is a critical step toward realizing the scientific advantages of record linkage and minimizing the risk of linkage consent bias. Linkage consent rates have been shown to be particularly sensitive to certain design features, such as where the consent question is placed in the questionnaire and how the question is framed...