Jamie M Caldwell, Gang Liu, Erick Geiger, Scott F Heron, C Mark Eakin, Jacqueline De La Cour, Austin Greene, Laurie Raymundo, Jen Dryden, Audrey Schlaff, Jessica S Stella, Tye L Kindinger, Courtney S Couch, Douglas Fenner, Whitney Hoot, Derek Manzello, Megan J Donahue
Ecological forecasts are becoming increasingly valuable tools for conservation and management. However, there are few examples of near-real-time forecasting systems that account for the wide range of ecological complexities. We developed a new coral disease ecological forecasting system that explores a suite of ecological relationships and their uncertainty and investigates how forecast skill changes with shorter lead times. The Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk product introduced here uses a combination of ecological and marine environmental conditions to predict the risk of white syndromes and growth anomalies across reefs in the central and western Pacific and along the east coast of Australia and is available through the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch program...
March 24, 2024: Ecological Applications