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Ruth H Keogh, Shaun R Seaman, Jessica K Barrett, David Taylor-Robinson, Rhonda Szczesniak
BACKGROUND: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is an inherited, chronic, progressive condition affecting around 10,000 individuals in the UK and over 70,000 worldwide. Survival in CF has improved considerably over recent decades and it is important to provide up-to-date information on patient prognosis. METHODS: The UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry is a secure centralized database, which collects annual data on almost all CF patients in the UK. Data from 43,592 annual records from 2005-2015 on 6181 individuals were used to develop a dynamic survival prediction model that provides personalized estimates of survival probabilities given a patient's current health status using 16 predictors...
September 17, 2018: Epidemiology
Alexandre Dias Porto Chiavegatto Filho, Hellen Geremias Dos Santos, Carla Ferreira do Nascimento, Kaio Massa, Ichiro Kawachi
BACKGROUND: Identifying successful public health ideas and practices is a difficult challenge due to the presence of complex baseline characteristics that can affect health outcomes. We propose the use of machine learning algorithms to predict life expectancy at birth, and then compare health-related characteristics of the under- and overachievers (i.e. municipalities that have a worse and better outcome than predicted, respectively). METHODS: Our outcome was life expectancy at birth for Brazilian municipalities and we used as predictors 60 local characteristics that are not directly controlled by public health officials (e...
September 12, 2018: Epidemiology
Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou, Raanan Raz, Ander Wilson, Ronen Fluss, Ronit Nirel, David M Broday, Yuval, Michele R Hacker, Thomas F McElrath, Itamar Grotto, Petros Koutrakis, Marc G Weisskopf
BACKGROUND: Traffic-related air pollution has been linked to multiple adverse pregnancy outcomes. However, few studies have examined pregnancy loss, targeting losses identified by hospital records, a large limitation as it does not capture events not reported to the medical system. METHODS: We used a novel variation of the time-series design to determine the association, and identify the critical window of vulnerability, between week-to-week traffic-related air pollution and conceptions resulting in live births, using nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as a traffic emissions tracer...
September 7, 2018: Epidemiology
Alexandra J White, Katie M O'Brien, Nicole M Niehoff, Rachel Carroll, Dale P Sandler
BACKGROUND: Toxic metals show evidence of carcinogenic and estrogenic properties. However, little is known about the relationship between airborne metals and breast cancer. We evaluated the risk of breast cancer in relation to exposure to toxic metallic substances in air, individually and combined, in a U.S. wide cohort. METHODS: We recruited Sister Study participants (n=50,884), breast cancer-free women who had a sister with breast cancer, from 2003-2009. The 2005 Environmental Protection Agency National Air Toxic Assessment's census-tract estimates of metal concentrations in air (antimony, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, cobalt, lead, manganese, mercury, nickel, and selenium) were matched to participants' enrollment residence...
September 6, 2018: Epidemiology
Marinus J C Eijkemans, Henri Leridon, Niels Keiding, Rémy Slama
BACKGROUND: Several epidemiologic designs allow studying fecundability, the monthly probability of pregnancy occurrence in non-contracepting couples in the general population. These designs may, to varying extents, suffer from attenuation bias and other biases. We aimed to compare the main designs: incident and prevalent cohorts, pregnancy-based, and current duration approaches. METHODS: A realistic simulation model produced individual reproductive lives of a fictitious population...
September 6, 2018: Epidemiology
Todd A MacKenzie, A James O'Malley, Kimon Bekelis
A property and criticism of instrumental variable (IV) estimators are that they estimate the exposure effect in the compliers; individuals whose exposure is influenced by the instrument. It is conceivable that the exposure effect is different in individuals whose exposure is not influenced by the instrument. For that reason, it is useful to know who the compliers are. We present methods for reporting averages and other statistics, and comparing them between the compliers and non-compliers, which are applicable to scenarios in which the instrument and exposure are fixed in time and dichotomous...
September 4, 2018: Epidemiology
(no author information available yet)
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
September 4, 2018: Epidemiology
Jessie K Edwards, Sarah Hileman, Yeycy Donastorg, Sabrina Zadrozny, Stefan Baral, James R Hargreaves, Elizabeth Fearon, Jinkou Zhao, Abhirup Datta, Sharon S Weir
BACKGROUND: National estimates of the sizes of key populations, including female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and transgender women are critical to inform national and international responses to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pandemic. However, epidemiologic studies typically provide size estimates for only limited high priority geographic areas. This paper illustrates a two-stage approach to obtain a national key population size estimate in the Dominican Republic using available estimates and publicly available contextual information...
August 16, 2018: Epidemiology
Carina J Gronlund, Lianne Sheppard, Sara D Adar, Marie S O'Neill, Amy Auchincloss, Jaime Madrigano, Joel Kaufman, Ana V Diez Roux
BACKGROUND: With climate change, temperatures are increasing. Heat-associated health events disproportionately affect certain subpopulations. However, prior research has often lacked information on individual-level health and air conditioning and neighborhood stressors/protections. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether 1) heat (2-day mean temperature above local 75 percentiles) is associated with increased heart rate and decreased blood pressure, controlling for age, time, season, daily ozone, and daily particulate matter (PM2...
August 14, 2018: Epidemiology
Carlos Cinelli, Judea Pearl
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
August 9, 2018: Epidemiology
Elizabeth Mostofsky, Brent A Coull, Murray A Mittleman
Several self-matched approaches have been proposed, including case-crossover, case-time control, fixed-effects case-time control and self-controlled case series. Rather than comparing treatment effects between different individuals, these approaches are used to evaluate the acute effects of transient exposures, often called "triggers", by comparing outcome risk among the same individual at different times. This eliminates confounding by between-person characteristics that remain stable over time, allowing for valid analyses even in situations where information on some health behaviors is not available, such as long-term smoking history...
August 3, 2018: Epidemiology
Maria C Magnus, German Tapia, Sjurdur F Olsen, Charlotta Granstrom, Karl Mårild, Per M Ueland, Øivind Midttun, Jannet Svensson, Jesper Johannesen, Torild Skrivarhaug, Geir Joner, Pål R Njølstad, Ketil Størdal, Lars C Stene
BACKGROUND: A few prospective studies suggest an association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and lower risk of type 1 diabetes. However, the role of unmeasured confounding and misclassification remains unclear. METHODS: We comprehensively evaluated whether maternal smoking in pregnancy predicts lower risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in two Scandinavian pregnancy cohorts (185,076 children; 689 cases) and a Norwegian register-based cohort (434,627 children; 692 cases)...
August 1, 2018: Epidemiology
Kazuhiko Ito, Kathryn Lane, Carolyn Olson
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
August 1, 2018: Epidemiology
Joann F Gruber, Sylvia Becker-Dreps, Michael G Hudgens, M Alan Brookhart, James C Thomas, Michele Jonsson Funk
BACKGROUND: Altering rotavirus vaccine schedules may improve vaccine performance in low- and middle-income countries. We analyzed data from clinical trials of the monovalent (RV1) and pentavalent (RV5) rotavirus vaccines in low- and middle-income countries to understand the association between vaccine dose timing and severe rotavirus gastroenteritis incidence. METHODS: We assessed the association between variations in rotavirus vaccine administration schedules and severe rotavirus gastroenteritis risk...
August 1, 2018: Epidemiology
Allen J Wilcox, Marianna Cortese, Carl M Baravelli, Rolv Skjaerven
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
August 1, 2018: Epidemiology
Shirley V Wang, Judith C Maro, Elande Baro, Rima Izem, Inna Dashevsky, James R Rogers, Michael Nguyen, Joshua J Gagne, Elisabetta Patorno, Krista F Huybrechts, Jacqueline M Major, Esther Zhou, Megan Reidy, Austin Cosgrove, Sebastian Schneeweiss, Martin Kulldorff
The tree-based scan statistic is a statistical data mining tool that has been used for signal detection with a self-controlled design in vaccine safety studies. This disproportionality statistic adjusts for multiple testing in evaluation of thousands of potential adverse events. However, many drug safety questions are not well suited for self-controlled analysis. We propose a method that combines tree-based scan statistics with propensity score matched analysis of new initiator cohorts, a robust design for investigations of drug safety...
August 1, 2018: Epidemiology
Lauren Pinault, Michael Brauer, Daniel L Crouse, Scott Weichenthal, Anders Erickson, Aaron van Donkelaar, Randall V Martin, Shannon Charbonneau, Perry Hystad, Jeffrey R Brook, Michael Tjepkema, Tanya Christidis, Richard Ménard, Alain Robichaud, Richard T Burnett
BACKGROUND: Diabetes is infrequently coded as the primary cause of death but may contribute to cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in response to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure. We analyzed all contributing causes of death to examine susceptibility of diabetics to CVD mortality from long-term exposure. METHODS: We linked a subset of the 2001 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC) with 10 years of follow-up to all causes of death listed on death certificates...
August 1, 2018: Epidemiology
Melissa K Sharp, Darko Hren, Douglas G Altman
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
August 1, 2018: Epidemiology
Kyle Steenland, Vaughn Barry, David Savitz
BACKGROUND: A recent meta-analysis of 15 studies found a change in birthweight of -12.8 grams (95% CI -23.1, -2.38) per ng/ml PFOA in maternal or cord blood, and -27.1 grams (-50.6, -3.6) per log ng/ml PFOA (Negri E et al. Crit Rev Toxicol 2017;47:482-508). Almost all studies were done in low-exposed populations. There are nine new studies, adding 6019 births to the previous 6937 births. METHODS: We conducted a meta-analysis of 24 studies. To combine all results, we approximated results for untransformed PFOA from nine studies using log-transformed PFOA...
July 30, 2018: Epidemiology
Christian Gehringer, Heinz Rode, Michael Schomaker
BACKGROUND: South Africa faced repeated episodes of temporary power shutdowns, or load shedding, in 2014/2015. The effect of load shedding on children's health is unknown. METHODS: We determined periods of load shedding using Twitter, Facebook, and data from the City of Cape Town. We obtained the number of unscheduled hospital admissions between June 2014 and May 2015 from Red Cross Children's Hospital, Cape Town, and weather data from the South African Weather Service...
July 30, 2018: Epidemiology
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