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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27773972/the-stability-of-ethnic-identity-in-england-and-wales-2001-2011
#1
Ludi Simpson, Stephen Jivraj, James Warren
The instability of ethnicity measured in the national census is found to have doubled from the period 1991-2001 to the period 2001-2011, using the Longitudinal Study that links a sample of individuals' census records across time. From internal evidence and comparison with results from the Census Quality Survey and the Labour Force Survey, estimates are made of instability due to changing question wording, imputation of missing answers, proxy reporting, recording errors and changes in the allocation of write-in answers...
October 2016: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27773971/integrated-modelling-of-age-and-sex-patterns-of-european-migration
#2
Arkadiusz Wiƛniowski, Jonathan J Forster, Peter W F Smith, Jakub Bijak, James Raymer
Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin-destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters...
October 2016: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27773970/a-quasi-monte-carlo-comparison-of-parametric-and-semiparametric-regression-methods-for-heavy-tailed-and-non-normal-data-an-application-to-healthcare-costs
#3
Andrew M Jones, James Lomas, Peter T Moore, Nigel Rice
We conduct a quasi-Monte-Carlo comparison of the recent developments in parametric and semiparametric regression methods for healthcare costs, both against each other and against standard practice. The population of English National Health Service hospital in-patient episodes for the financial year 2007-2008 (summed for each patient) is randomly divided into two equally sized subpopulations to form an estimation set and a validation set. Evaluating out-of-sample using the validation set, a conditional density approximation estimator shows considerable promise in forecasting conditional means, performing best for accuracy of forecasting and among the best four for bias and goodness of fit...
October 2016: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27546997/longitudinal-analysis-of-the-strengths-and-difficulties-questionnaire-scores-of-the-millennium-cohort-study-children-in-england-using-m-quantile-random-effects-regression
#4
Nikos Tzavidis, Nicola Salvati, Timo Schmid, Eirini Flouri, Emily Midouhas
Multilevel modelling is a popular approach for longitudinal data analysis. Statistical models conventionally target a parameter at the centre of a distribution. However, when the distribution of the data is asymmetric, modelling other location parameters, e.g. percentiles, may be more informative. We present a new approach, M-quantile random-effects regression, for modelling multilevel data. The proposed method is used for modelling location parameters of the distribution of the strengths and difficulties questionnaire scores of children in England who participate in the Millennium Cohort Study...
February 2016: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26924898/statistical-modelling-of-citation-exchange-between-statistics-journals
#5
Cristiano Varin, Manuela Cattelan, David Firth
Rankings of scholarly journals based on citation data are often met with scepticism by the scientific community. Part of the scepticism is due to disparity between the common perception of journals' prestige and their ranking based on citation counts. A more serious concern is the inappropriate use of journal rankings to evaluate the scientific influence of researchers. The paper focuses on analysis of the table of cross-citations among a selection of statistics journals. Data are collected from the Web of Science database published by Thomson Reuters...
January 2016: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26877598/spatially-modelling-the-association-between-access-to-recreational-facilities-and-exercise-the-multi-ethnic-study-of-atherosclerosis
#6
Samuel I Berchuck, Joshua L Warren, Amy H Herring, Kelly R Evenson, Kari A B Moore, Yamini K Ranchod, Ana V Diez-Roux
Numerous studies have investigated the relationship between the built environment and physical activity. However these studies assume that these relationships are invariant over space. In this study, we introduce a novel method to analyze the association between access to recreational facilities and exercise allowing for spatial heterogeneity. In addition, this association is studied before and after controlling for crime, a variable that could explain spatial heterogeneity of associations. We use data from the Chicago site of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis of 781 adults aged 46 years and over...
January 2016: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27840562/realtime-nowcasting-with-a-bayesian-mixed-frequency-model-with-stochastic-volatility
#7
Andrea Carriero, Todd E Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino
The paper develops a method for producing current quarter forecasts of gross domestic product growth with a (possibly large) range of available within-the-quarter monthly observations of economic indicators, such as employment and industrial production, and financial indicators, such as stock prices and interest rates. In light of existing evidence of time variation in the variances of shocks to gross domestic product, we consider versions of the model with both constant variances and stochastic volatility...
October 2015: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27524869/do-household-surveys-give-a-coherent-view-of-disability-benefit-targeting-a-multisurvey-latent-variable-analysis-for-the-older-population-in-great-britain
#8
Ruth Hancock, Marcello Morciano, Stephen Pudney, Francesca Zantomio
We compare three major UK surveys, the British Household Panel Survey, Family Resources Survey and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, in terms of the picture that they give of the relationship between disability and receipt of the attendance allowance benefit. Using the different disability indicators that are available in each survey, we use a structural equation approach involving a latent concept of disability in which probabilities of receiving attendance allowance depend on disability. Despite major differences in design, once sample composition has been standardized through statistical matching, the surveys deliver similar results for the model of disability and receipt of attendance allowance...
October 2015: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26705382/bayesian-hierarchical-models-for-smoothing-in-two-phase-studies-with-application-to-small-area-estimation
#9
Michelle Ross, Jon Wakefield
Two-phase study designs are appealing since they allow for the oversampling of rare sub-populations which improves efficiency. In this paper we describe a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of two-phase data. Such a model is particularly appealing in a spatial setting in which random effects are introduced to model between-area variability. In such a situation, one may be interested in estimating regression coefficients or, in the context of small area estimation, in reconstructing the population totals by strata...
October 2015: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26612972/bayesian-reconstruction-of-two-sex-populations-by-age-estimating-sex-ratios-at-birth-and-sex-ratios-of-mortality
#10
Mark C Wheldon, Adrian E Raftery, Samuel J Clark, Patrick Gerland
The original version of Bayesian reconstruction, a method for estimating age-specific fertility, mortality, migration and population counts of the recent past with uncertainty, produced estimates for female-only populations. Here we show how two-sex populations can be similarly reconstructed and probabilistic estimates of various sex ratio quantities obtained. We demonstrate the method by reconstructing the populations of India from 1971 to 2001, Thailand from 1960 to 2000, and Laos from 1985 to 2005. We found evidence that in India, sex ratio at birth exceeded its conventional upper limit of 1...
October 2015: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26556961/a-joint-model-of-persistent-human-papillomavirus-infection-and-cervical-cancer-risk-implications-for-cervical-cancer-screening
#11
Hormuzd A Katki, Li C Cheung, Barbara Fetterman, Philip E Castle, Rajeshwari Sundaram
New cervical cancer screening guidelines in the US and many European countries recommend that women get tested for human papillomavirus (HPV). To inform decisions about screening intervals, we calculate the increase in precancer/cancer risk per year of continued HPV infection. However, both time to onset of precancer/cancer and time to HPV clearance are interval-censored, and onset of precancer/cancer strongly informatively censors HPV clearance. We analyze this bivariate informatively interval-censored data by developing a novel joint model for time to clearance of HPV and time to precancer/cancer using shared random-effects, where the estimated mean duration of each woman's HPV infection is a covariate in the submodel for time to precancer/cancer...
October 1, 2015: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26640328/network-model-assisted-inference-from-respondent-driven-sampling-data
#12
Krista J Gile, Mark S Handcock
Respondent-Driven Sampling is a widely-used method for sampling hard-to-reach human populations by link-tracing over their social networks. Inference from such data requires specialized techniques because the sampling process is both partially beyond the control of the researcher, and partially implicitly defined. Therefore, it is not generally possible to directly compute the sampling weights for traditional design-based inference, and likelihood inference requires modeling the complex sampling process. As an alternative, we introduce a model-assisted approach, resulting in a design-based estimator leveraging a working network model...
June 2015: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27695203/estimating-the-health-benefit-of-reducing-indoor-air-pollution-in-a-randomized-environmental-intervention
#13
Roger D Peng, Arlene M Butz, Amber J Hackstadt, D'Ann L Williams, Gregory B Diette, Patrick N Breysse, Elizabeth C Matsui
Recent intervention studies targeted at reducing indoor air pollution have demonstrated both the ability to improve respiratory health outcomes and to reduce particulate matter (PM) levels in the home. However, these studies generally do not address whether it is the reduction of PM levels specifically that improves respiratory health. In this paper we apply the method of principal stratification to data from a randomized air cleaner intervention designed to reduce indoor PM in homes of children with asthma...
February 2015: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26560312/a-log-linear-modelling-approach-to-assessing-the-consistency-of-ego-reports-of-dyadic-outcomes-with-applications-to-fertility-and-sexual-partnerships
#14
Ryan Admiraal, Mark S Handcock
We propose a log-linear model to assess the consistency of ego reports of dyadic outcomes. We do so specifically in the context where males and females report on shared events, and we demonstrate how inconsistencies can be assessed by using a log-linear model that estimates separate mixing totals for each set of reports. This modelling approach immediately allows us to determine where inconsistencies in reports occur. To demonstrate how our method can be easily implemented for survey data, we apply it to both the 1992 National Health and Social Life Survey and the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth...
February 1, 2015: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/25673922/is-the-carli-index-flawed-assessing-the-case-for-the-new-retail-price-index-rpij
#15
Peter Levell
The paper discusses the recent decision of the UK's Office for National Statistics to replace the controversial Carli index with the Jevons index in a new version of the retail price index-RPIJ. In doing so we make three contributions to the way that price indices should be selected for measures of consumer price inflation when quantity information is not available (i.e. at the 'elementary' level). Firstly, we introduce a new price bouncing test under the test approach for choosing index numbers. Secondly, we provide empirical evidence on the performance of the Carli and Jevons indices in different contexts under the statistical approach...
February 2015: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27226702/diagnostics-for-respondent-driven-sampling
#16
Krista J Gile, Lisa G Johnston, Matthew J Salganik
Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a widely used method for sampling from hard-to-reach human populations, especially populations at higher risk for HIV. Data are collected through peer-referral over social networks. RDS has proven practical for data collection in many difficult settings and is widely used. Inference from RDS data requires many strong assumptions because the sampling design is partially beyond the control of the researcher and partially unobserved. We introduce diagnostic tools for most of these assumptions and apply them in 12 high risk populations...
January 2015: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/25598588/broader-health-coverage-is-good-for-the-nation-s-health-evidence-from-country-level-panel-data
#17
Rodrigo Moreno-Serra, Peter C Smith
Progress towards universal health coverage involves providing people with access to needed health services without entailing financial hardship and is often advocated on the grounds that it improves population health. The paper offers econometric evidence on the effects of health coverage on mortality outcomes at the national level. We use a large panel data set of countries, examined by using instrumental variable specifications that explicitly allow for potential reverse causality and unobserved country-specific characteristics...
January 2015: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/25598587/interviewer-effects-on-non-response-propensity-in-longitudinal-surveys-a-multilevel-modelling-approach
#18
Rebecca Vassallo, Gabriele B Durrant, Peter W F Smith, Harvey Goldstein
The paper investigates two different multilevel approaches, the multilevel cross-classified and the multiple-membership models, for the analysis of interviewer effects on wave non-response in longitudinal surveys. The models proposed incorporate both interviewer and area effects to account for the non-hierarchical structure, the influence of potentially more than one interviewer across waves and possible confounding of area and interviewer effects arising from the non-random allocation of interviewers across areas...
January 2015: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/25598586/the-drivers-of-month-of-birth-differences-in-children-s-cognitive-and-non-cognitive-skills
#19
Claire Crawford, Lorraine Dearden, Ellen Greaves
Previous research has found that children who are born later in the academic year have lower educational attainment, on average, than children who are born earlier in the year, especially at younger ages; much less is known about the mechanisms that drive this inequality. The paper uses two complementary identification strategies to estimate an upper bound of the effect of age at test by using rich data from two UK birth cohorts. We find that differences in the age at which cognitive skills are tested accounts for the vast majority of the difference in these outcomes between children who are born at different times of the year, whereas the combined effect of the other factors (age of starting school, length of schooling and relative age) is close to zero...
October 2014: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/25598585/multiple-membership-multiple-classification-models-for-social-network-and-group-dependences
#20
Mark Tranmer, David Steel, William J Browne
The social network literature on network dependences has largely ignored other sources of dependence, such as the school that a student attends, or the area in which an individual lives. The multilevel modelling literature on school and area dependences has, in turn, largely ignored social networks. To bridge this divide, a multiple-membership multiple-classification modelling approach for jointly investigating social network and group dependences is presented. This allows social network and group dependences on individual responses to be investigated and compared...
February 2014: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
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