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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29351364/the-ethical-foundations-of-risk-analysis
#1
Daniel J Rozell
In the field of risk analysis, the normative value systems underlying accepted methodology are rarely explicitly discussed. This perspective provides a critique of the various ethical frameworks that can be used in risk assessments and risk management decisions. The goal is to acknowledge philosophical weaknesses that should be considered and communicated in order to improve the public acceptance of the work of risk analysts.
January 19, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29341236/induced-earthquakes-from-long-term-gas-extraction-in-groningen-the-netherlands-statistical-analysis-and-prognosis-for-acceptable-risk-regulation
#2
Charles Vlek
Recently, growing earthquake activity in the northeastern Netherlands has aroused considerable concern among the 600,000 provincial inhabitants. There, at 3 km deep, the rich Groningen gas field extends over 900 km2 and still contains about 600 of the original 2,800 billion cubic meters (bcm). Particularly after 2001, earthquakes have increased in number, magnitude (M, on the logarithmic Richter scale), and damage to numerous buildings. The man-made nature of extraction-induced earthquakes challenges static notions of risk, complicates formal risk assessment, and questions familiar conceptions of acceptable risk...
January 16, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29341200/human-agency-in-disaster-planning-a-systems-approach
#3
John Hamer Powell, Michael Hammond, Albert Chen, Navonil Mustafee
Current approaches to risk management place insufficient emphasis on the system knowledge available to the assessor, particularly in respect of the dynamic behavior of the system under threat, the role of human agents (HAs), and the knowledge available to those agents. In this article, we address the second of these issues. We are concerned with a class of systems containing HAs playing a variety of roles as significant system elements-as decisionmakers, cognitive agents, or implementers-that is, human activity systems...
January 16, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29341196/dynamic-economic-resilience-and-economic-recovery-from-disasters-a-quantitative-assessment
#4
Wei Xie, Adam Rose, Shantong Li, Jianwu He, Ning Li, Tariq Ali
This article analyzes the role of dynamic economic resilience in relation to recovery from disasters in general and illustrates its potential to reduce disaster losses in a case study of the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. We first offer operational definitions of the concept linked to policies to promote increased levels and speed of investment in repair and reconstruction to implement this resilience. We then develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates major features of investment and traces the time-path of the economy as it recovers with and without dynamic economic resilience...
January 16, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29341180/risk-assessment-of-salmonellosis-from-consumption-of-alfalfa-sprouts-and-evaluation-of-the-public-health-impact-of-sprout-seed-treatment-and-spent-irrigation-water-testing
#5
Yuhuan Chen, Régis Pouillot, Sofia M Santillana Farakos, Steven Duret, Judith Spungen, Tong-Jen Fu, Fazila Shakir, Patricia A Homola, Sherri Dennis, Jane M Van Doren
We developed a risk assessment of human salmonellosis associated with consumption of alfalfa sprouts in the United States to evaluate the public health impact of applying treatments to seeds (0-5-log10 reduction in Salmonella) and testing spent irrigation water (SIW) during production. The risk model considered variability and uncertainty in Salmonella contamination in seeds, Salmonella growth and spread during sprout production, sprout consumption, and Salmonella dose response. Based on an estimated prevalence of 2...
January 16, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29341178/security-investment-in-contagious-networks
#6
Seyed Alireza Hasheminasab, Behrouz Tork Ladani
Security of the systems is normally interdependent in such a way that security risks of one part affect other parts and threats spread through the vulnerable links in the network. So, the risks of the systems can be mitigated through investments in the security of interconnecting links. This article takes an innovative look at the problem of security investment of nodes on their vulnerable links in a given contagious network as a game-theoretic model that can be applied to a variety of applications including information systems...
January 16, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29315715/a-mathematical-model-for-pathogen-cross-contamination-dynamics-during-the-postharvest-processing-of-leafy-greens
#7
Amir Mokhtari, David Oryang, Yuhuan Chen, Regis Pouillot, Jane Van Doren
We developed a probabilistic mathematical model for the postharvest processing of leafy greens focusing on Escherichia coli O157:H7 contamination of fresh-cut romaine lettuce as the case study. Our model can (i) support the investigation of cross-contamination scenarios, and (ii) evaluate and compare different risk mitigation options. We used an agent-based modeling framework to predict the pathogen prevalence and levels in bags of fresh-cut lettuce and quantify spread of E. coli O157:H7 from contaminated lettuce to surface areas of processing equipment...
January 8, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29314162/a-systems-based-risk-assessment-framework-for-intentional-electromagnetic-interference-iemi-on-critical-infrastructures
#8
Benjamin Donald Oakes, Lars-Göran Mattsson, Per Näsman, Andrés Alayón Glazunov
Modern infrastructures are becoming increasingly dependent on electronic systems, leaving them more vulnerable to electrical surges or electromagnetic interference. Electromagnetic disturbances appear in nature, e.g., lightning and solar wind; however, they may also be generated by man-made technology to maliciously damage or disturb electronic equipment. This article presents a systematic risk assessment framework for identifying possible, consequential, and plausible intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) attacks on an arbitrary distribution network infrastructure...
January 3, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29314154/evaluation-of-two-approaches-to-defining-extinction-risk-under-the-u-s-endangered-species-act
#9
Grant G Thompson, Lynn A Maguire, Tracey J Regan
The predominant definition of extinction risk in conservation biology involves evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of extinction time at a particular point (the "time horizon"). Using the principles of decision theory, this article develops an alternative definition of extinction risk as the expected loss (EL) to society resulting from eventual extinction of a species. Distinct roles are identified for time preference and risk aversion. Ranges of tentative values for the parameters of the two approaches are proposed, and the performances of the two approaches are compared and contrasted for a small set of real-world species with published extinction time distributions and a large set of hypothetical extinction time distributions...
January 3, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29314143/modeling-poliovirus-transmission-in-pakistan-and-afghanistan-to-inform-vaccination-strategies-in-undervaccinated-subpopulations
#10
Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens, Mark A Pallansch, Stephen L Cochi, Derek T Ehrhardt, Noha H Farag, Stephen C Hadler, Lee M Hampton, Maureen Martinez, Steve G F Wassilak, Kimberly M Thompson
Due to security, access, and programmatic challenges in areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, both countries continue to sustain indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission and threaten the success of global polio eradication and oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation. We fitted an existing differential-equation-based poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model to Pakistan and Afghanistan using four subpopulations to characterize the well-vaccinated and undervaccinated subpopulations in each country. We explored retrospective and prospective scenarios for using inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization or supplemental immunization activities (SIAs)...
January 3, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29314118/frequency-of-risk-related-news-media-messages-in-2016-coverage-of-zika-virus
#11
Tara Kirk Sell, Crystal Watson, Diane Meyer, Marissa Kronk, Sanjana Ravi, Laura E Pechta, Keri M Lubell, Dale A Rose
News media plays a large role in the information the public receives during an infectious disease outbreak, and may influence public knowledge and perceptions of risk. This study analyzed and described the content of U.S. news media coverage of Zika virus and Zika response during 2016. A random selection of 800 Zika-related news stories from 25 print and television news sources was analyzed. The study examined 24 different messages that appeared in news media articles and characterized them using theories of risk perception as messages with characteristics that could increase perception of risk (risk-elevating messages; n = 14), messages that could decrease perception of risk (risk-minimizing messages; n = 8), or messages about travel or testing guidance (n = 2)...
January 3, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29278668/evaluation-of-the-influenza-risk-reduction-from-antimicrobial-spray-application-on-porous-surfaces
#12
Alexandre Chabrelie, Jade Mitchell, Joan Rose, Duane Charbonneau, Yoshiki Ishida
Antimicrobial spray products are used by millions of people around the world for cleaning and disinfection of commonly touched surfaces. Influenza A is a pathogen of major concern, leading to up to 49,000 deaths and 114,000 hospitalizations per year in the United States alone. One of the recognized routes of transmission for influenza A is by transfer of viruses from surfaces to hands and subsequently to mucous membranes. Therefore, routine cleaning and disinfection of surfaces is an important part of the environmental management of influenza A...
December 26, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29278658/construction-of-a-dose-illness-relationship-via-modeling-morbidity-and-application-to-risk-assessment-of-wastewater-reuse
#13
Tingting Gao, Rong Chen, Yanzheng Liu, Xiaochang C Wang, Yuyou Li
A disease burden (DB) evaluation for environmental pathogens is generally performed using disability-adjusted life years with the aim of providing a quantitative assessment of the health hazard caused by pathogens. A critical step in the preparation for this evaluation is the estimation of morbidity between exposure and disease occurrence. In this study, the method of a traditional dose-response analysis was first reviewed, and then a combination of the theoretical basis of a "single-hit" and an "infection-illness" model was performed by incorporating two critical factors: the "infective coefficient" and "infection duration...
December 26, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29266430/dams-a-model-to-assess-domino-effects-by-using-agent-based-modeling-and-simulation
#14
Laobing Zhang, Gabriele Landucci, Genserik Reniers, Nima Khakzad, Jianfeng Zhou
Historical data analysis shows that escalation accidents, so-called domino effects, have an important role in disastrous accidents in the chemical and process industries. In this study, an agent-based modeling and simulation approach is proposed to study the propagation of domino effects in the chemical and process industries. Different from the analytical or Monte Carlo simulation approaches, which normally study the domino effect at probabilistic network levels, the agent-based modeling technique explains the domino effects from a bottom-up perspective...
December 19, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29266361/estimation-of-the-leukemia-risk-in-human-populations-exposed-to-benzene-from-tobacco-smoke-using-epidemiological-data
#15
Stacy Fiebelkorn, Clive Meredith
Several epidemiological studies have demonstrated an association between occupational benzene exposure and increased leukemia risk, in particular acute myeloid leukemia (AML). However, there is still uncertainty as to the risk to the general population from exposure to lower environmental levels of benzene. To estimate the excess risk of leukemia from low-dose benzene exposure, various methods for incorporating epidemiological data in quantitative risk assessment were utilized. Tobacco smoke was identified as one of the main potential sources of benzene exposure and was the focus of this exposure assessment, allowing further investigation of the role of benzene in smoking-induced leukemia...
December 19, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29266340/effects-of-an-advisory-brochure-on-fish-consumption-of-urban-anglers-in-the-great-lakes-region
#16
T Bruce Lauber, Nancy A Connelly, Jeff Niederdeppe, Barbara A Knuth
Past research has suggested that urban anglers are a group at high risk of being exposed to contaminants from fish consumption. Fish consumption advisories have been used in many regions to encourage healthy fish-eating behaviors, but few studies have been designed to assess whether these advisories actually influence behavior as intended. We conducted a large-scale, randomized experiment to test the influence of an advisory brochure on urban anglers' fish consumption. We collected detailed information on anglers' fish consumption in three urban counties in the Great Lakes region in the summers of 2014 and 2015...
December 19, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29240986/the-essential-elements-of-a-risk-governance-framework-for-current-and-future-nanotechnologies
#17
Vicki Stone, Martin Führ, Peter H Feindt, Hans Bouwmeester, Igor Linkov, Stefania Sabella, Finbarr Murphy, Kilian Bizer, Lang Tran, Marlene Ågerstrand, Carlos Fito, Torben Andersen, Diana Anderson, Enrico Bergamaschi, John W Cherrie, Sue Cowan, Jean-Francois Dalemcourt, Michael Faure, Silke Gabbert, Agnieszka Gajewicz, Teresa F Fernandes, Danail Hristozov, Helinor J Johnston, Terry C Lansdown, Stefan Linder, Hans J P Marvin, Martin Mullins, Kai Purnhagen, Tomasz Puzyn, Araceli Sanchez Jimenez, Janeck J Scott-Fordsmand, George Streftaris, Martie van Tongeren, Nicolas H Voelcker, George Voyiatzis, Spyros N Yannopoulos, P Marijn Poortvliet
Societies worldwide are investing considerable resources into the safe development and use of nanomaterials. Although each of these protective efforts is crucial for governing the risks of nanomaterials, they are insufficient in isolation. What is missing is a more integrative governance approach that goes beyond legislation. Development of this approach must be evidence based and involve key stakeholders to ensure acceptance by end users. The challenge is to develop a framework that coordinates the variety of actors involved in nanotechnology and civil society to facilitate consideration of the complex issues that occur in this rapidly evolving research and development area...
December 14, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29228515/aging-and-cardiometabolic-risk-in-european-hems-pilots-an-assessment-of-occupational-old-age-limits-as-a-regulatory-risk-management-strategy
#18
Hans Bauer, Dennis Nowak, Britta Herbig
Old-age limits are imposed in some occupations in an effort to ensure public safety. In aviation, the "Age 60 Rule" limits permissible flight operations conducted by pilots aged 60 and over. Using a retrospective cohort design, we assessed this rule's validity by comparing age-related change rates of cardiometabolic incapacitation risk markers in European helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) pilots near age 60 with those in younger pilots. Specifically, individual clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiogram (ECG)-based risk markers and an overall cardiovascular event risk score were determined from aeromedical examination records of 66 German, Austrian, Polish, and Czech HEMS pilots (average follow-up 8...
December 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29228505/a-spatio-temporal-exposure-hazard-model-for-assessing-biological-risk-and-impact
#19
Emily Walker, Melen Leclerc, Jean-François Rey, Rémy Beaudouin, Samuel Soubeyrand, Antoine Messéan
We developed a simulation model for quantifying the spatio-temporal distribution of contaminants (e.g., xenobiotics) and assessing the risk of exposed populations at the landscape level. The model is a spatio-temporal exposure-hazard model based on (i) tools of stochastic geometry (marked polygon and point processes) for structuring the landscape and describing the exposed individuals, (ii) a dispersal kernel describing the dissemination of contaminants from polygon sources, and (iii) an (eco)toxicological equation describing the toxicokinetics and dynamics of contaminants in affected individuals...
December 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29228503/an-integrated-framework-for-environmental-multi-impact-spatial-risk-analysis
#20
Valentina Ferretti, Gilberto Montibeller
Quantitative risk analysis is being extensively employed to support policymakers and provides a strong conceptual framework for evaluating decision alternatives under uncertainty. Many problems involving environmental risks are, however, of a spatial nature, i.e., containing spatial impacts, spatial vulnerabilities, and spatial risk-mitigation alternatives. Recent developments in multicriteria spatial analysis have enabled the assessment and aggregation of multiple impacts, supporting policymakers in spatial evaluation problems...
December 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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