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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28230272/sizing-up-a-superstorm-exploring-the-role-of-recalled-experience-and-attribution-of-responsibility-in-judgments-of-future-hurricane-risk
#1
Laura N Rickard, Z Janet Yang, Jonathon P Schuldt, Gina M Eosco, Clifford W Scherer, Ricardo A Daziano
Research suggests that hurricane-related risk perception is a critical predictor of behavioral response, such as evacuation. Less is known, however, about the precursors of these subjective risk judgments, especially when time has elapsed from a focal event. Drawing broadly from the risk communication, social psychology, and natural hazards literature, and specifically from concepts adapted from the risk information seeking and processing model and the protective action decision model, we examine how individuals' distant recollections, including attribution of responsibility for the effects of a storm, attitude toward relevant information, and past hurricane experience, relate to risk judgment for a future, similar event...
February 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28230268/potential-climate-change-health-risks-from-increases-in-heat-waves-abnormal-birth-outcomes-and-adverse-maternal-health-conditions
#2
Gulcan Cil, Trudy Ann Cameron
We investigate the risks presented by heat waves for adverse health conditions for babies and expectant mothers when these mothers have been exposed to heat waves during gestation or during the period just prior to conception. Rather than just birth weight and gestational age, we focus on less common metrics such as abnormal conditions in the newborn (fetal distress, reliance on a ventilator, and meconium aspiration) and adverse health conditions in the mother (pregnancy-related hypertension, uterine bleeding during pregnancy, eclampsia, and incompetent cervix)...
February 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28230267/the-economic-impact-of-space-weather-where-do-we-stand
#3
J P Eastwood, E Biffis, M A Hapgood, L Green, M M Bisi, R D Bentley, R Wicks, L-A McKinnell, M Gibbs, C Burnett
Space weather describes the way in which the Sun, and conditions in space more generally, impact human activity and technology both in space and on the ground. It is now well understood that space weather represents a significant threat to infrastructure resilience, and is a source of risk that is wide-ranging in its impact and the pathways by which this impact may occur. Although space weather is growing rapidly as a field, work rigorously assessing the overall economic cost of space weather appears to be in its infancy...
February 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28230266/who-is-a-distracted-driver-associations-between-mobile-phone-use-while-driving-domain-specific-risk-taking-and-personality
#4
Madison Sween, Andrea Ceschi, Francesco Tommasi, Riccardo Sartori, Joshua Weller
Mobile phone use while driving (MPUWD) is an increasingly common form of distracted driving. Given its widespread prevalence, it is important for researchers to identify factors that may predict who is more likely to engage in this risky behavior. The current study investigates associations between MPUWD risk behaviors, domain-specific risk perceptions, and broad personality dimensions. An Italian community sample (n = 804) completed a survey regarding MPUWD risk perceptions and engagement in MPUWD, in addition to the HEXACO-PI-R, a broad six-factor personality inventory (honesty-humility, emotionality, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, openness to experience), and the DOSPERT, a six-factor domain-specific self-report risk-taking measure (health/safety, recreational, social, ethical, gambling, and investment)...
February 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28230265/spatial-optimization-of-future-urban-development-with-regards-to-climate-risk-and-sustainability-objectives
#5
Daniel Caparros-Midwood, Stuart Barr, Richard Dawson
Future development in cities needs to manage increasing populations, climate-related risks, and sustainable development objectives such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Planners therefore face a challenge of multidimensional, spatial optimization in order to balance potential tradeoffs and maximize synergies between risks and other objectives. To address this, a spatial optimization framework has been developed. This uses a spatially implemented genetic algorithm to generate a set of Pareto-optimal results that provide planners with the best set of trade-off spatial plans for six risk and sustainability objectives: (i) minimize heat risks, (ii) minimize flooding risks, (iii) minimize transport travel costs to minimize associated emissions, (iv) maximize brownfield development, (v) minimize urban sprawl, and (vi) prevent development of greenspace...
February 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28230257/a-general-framework-for-the-assessment-of-power-system-vulnerability-to-malicious-attacks
#6
R Piccinelli, G Sansavini, R Lucchetti, E Zio
The protection and safe operations of power systems heavily rely on the identification of the causes of damage and service disruption. This article presents a general framework for the assessment of power system vulnerability to malicious attacks. The concept of susceptibility to an attack is employed to quantitatively evaluate the degree of exposure of the system and its components to intentional offensive actions. A scenario with two agents having opposing objectives is proposed, i.e., a defender having multiple alternatives of protection strategies for system elements, and an attacker having multiple alternatives of attack strategies against different combinations of system elements...
February 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28230256/yes-the-precautionary-principle-is-incoherent
#7
Martin Peterson
This article is a reply to Thomas Boyer-Kassem's discussion of my criticism of the precautionary principle published in this journal about a decade ago. Boyer-Kassem does not question the logical validity of the theorem proved in my original article, but he brings up important questions about its scope. He also challenges the plausibility of some of the assumptions on which it is based. In this comment, I argue that each objection can be adequately dealt with. As a decision rule, the precautionary principle is (still) incoherent...
February 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28229506/local-control-strategy-simple-analyses-of-air-pollution-data-can-reveal-heterogeneity-in-longevity-outcomes
#8
Robert L Obenchain, S Stanley Young
Claims from observational studies that use traditional model specification searches often fail to replicate, partially because the available data tend to be biased. There is an urgent need for an alternative statistical analysis strategy, that is not only simple and easily understood but also is more likely to give reliable insights when the available data have not been designed and balanced. The alternative strategy known as local control first generates local, nonparametric effect-size estimates (fair treatment comparisons) and only then asks whether the observed variation in these local estimates can be predicted from potential confounding factors...
February 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28229479/sampling-strategies-for-evaluating-the-rate-of-adventitious-transgene-presence-in-non-genetically-modified-crop-fields
#9
David Makowski, Rémi Bancal, Arnaud Bensadoun, Hervé Monod, Antoine Messéan
According to E.U. regulations, the maximum allowable rate of adventitious transgene presence in non-genetically modified (GM) crops is 0.9%. We compared four sampling methods for the detection of transgenic material in agricultural non-GM maize fields: random sampling, stratified sampling, random sampling + ratio reweighting, random sampling + regression reweighting. Random sampling involves simply sampling maize grains from different locations selected at random from the field concerned. The stratified and reweighting sampling methods make use of an auxiliary variable corresponding to the output of a gene-flow model (a zero-inflated Poisson model) simulating cross-pollination as a function of wind speed, wind direction, and distance to the closest GM maize field...
February 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28229466/insight-into-calculated-risk-an-application-to-the-prioritization-of-emerging-infectious-diseases-for-blood-transfusion-safety
#10
R E J Neslo, W Oei, M P Janssen
Increasing identification of transmissions of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) by blood transfusion raised the question which of these EIDs poses the highest risk to blood safety. For a number of the EIDs that are perceived to be a threat to blood safety, evidence on actual disease or transmission characteristics is lacking, which might render measures against such EIDs disputable. On the other hand, the fact that we call them "emerging" implies almost by definition that we are uncertain about at least some of their characteristics...
February 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28128459/a-hybrid-methodology-for-modeling-risk-of-adverse-events-in-complex-health-care-settings
#11
Reza Kazemi, Ali Mosleh, Meghan Dierks
In spite of increased attention to quality and efforts to provide safe medical care, adverse events (AEs) are still frequent in clinical practice. Reports from various sources indicate that a substantial number of hospitalized patients suffer treatment-caused injuries while in the hospital. While risk cannot be entirely eliminated from health-care activities, an important goal is to develop effective and durable mitigation strategies to render the system "safer." In order to do this, though, we must develop models that comprehensively and realistically characterize the risk...
January 27, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28121045/a-bayesian-approach-to-integrated-ecological-and-human-health-risk-assessment-for-the-south-river-virginia-mercury-contaminated-site
#12
Meagan J Harris, Jonah Stinson, Wayne G Landis
We conducted a regional-scale integrated ecological and human health risk assessment by applying the relative risk model with Bayesian networks (BN-RRM) to a case study of the South River, Virginia mercury-contaminated site. Risk to four ecological services of the South River (human health, water quality, recreation, and the recreational fishery) was evaluated using a multiple stressor-multiple endpoint approach. These four ecological services were selected as endpoints based on stakeholder feedback and prioritized management goals for the river...
January 25, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28121020/modeling-rabbit-responses-to-single-and-multiple-aerosol-exposures-of-bacillus-anthracis-spores
#13
Margaret E Coleman, Harry M Marks, Timothy A Bartrand, Darrell W Donahue, Stephanie A Hines, Jason E Comer, Sarah C Taft
Survival models are developed to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple-dose data set to predict the probability of death through specifying functions of dose response and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) is an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution...
January 25, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28106272/health-claims-and-methodological-controversy-in-nutrition-science
#14
Oliver Todt, José Luis Luján
This article analyzes the debate about data acquisition and assessment in health claims regulation by identifying the underlying controversies on methodological choice. Regulation in the European Union imposes the need for a scientific substantiation of all health claims (claims about a relationship between consumption of certain food ingredients and positive health effects). Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the method that generally is considered to provide the highest quality data for decision making in claims regulation because they allow for establishing cause-effect relationships...
January 20, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28095605/influence-of-distribution-of-animals-between-dose-groups-on-estimated-benchmark-dose-and-animal-distress-for-quantal-responses
#15
Fereshteh Kalantari, Joakim Ringblom, Salomon Sand, Mattias Öberg
Increasingly, dose-response data are being evaluated with the benchmark dose (BMD) approach rather than by the less precise no-observed-adverse-effect-level (NOAEL) approach. However, the basis for designing animal experiments, using equally sized dose groups, is still primed for the NOAEL approach. The major objective here was to assess the impact of using dose groups of unequal size on both the quality of the BMD and overall animal distress. We examined study designs with a total number of 200 animals distributed in four dose groups employing quantal data generated by Monte Carlo simulations...
January 17, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28095603/review-of-regulatory-emphasis-on-transportation-safety-in-the-united-states-2002-2009-public-versus-private-modes
#16
Garrett C Waycaster, Taiki Matsumura, Volodymyr Bilotkach, Raphael T Haftka, Nam H Kim
The U.S. Department of Transportation is responsible for implementing new safety improvements and regulations with the goal of ensuring limited funds are distributed to where they can have the greatest impact on safety. In this work, we conduct a study of new regulations and other reactions (such as recalls) to fatal accidents in several different modes of transportation implemented from 2002 to 2009. We find that in the safest modes of commercial aviation and bus transport, the amount of spending on new regulations is high in relation to the number of fatalities compared to the regulatory attention received by less safe modes of general aviation and private automobiles...
January 17, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28095602/age-and-adaptation-stronger-decision-updating-about-real-world-risks-in-older-age
#17
Jonathan J Rolison, Stacey Wood, Yaniv Hanoch
In later life, people are faced with a multitude of risky decisions that concern their health, finance, and personal security. Older adults often exercise caution in situations that involve risk. In this research, we asked whether older adults are also more responsive to warnings about potential risk. An answer to this question could reveal a factor underlying increased cautiousness in older age. In Study 1, participants decided whether they would engage in risky activities (e.g., using an ATM machine in the street) in four realistic scenarios about which participants could be expected to have relevant knowledge or experience...
January 17, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28095601/-re-defining-emerging-risks
#18
Chabane Mazri
The concept of emergence in risk management can be seen as a revealing symptom of the increasing need for organizations to update their portfolio of risks and opportunities in a rapidly changing and highly competitive environment. Accordingly, the concept of emerging risks has been widely discussed in both scientific and business communities, with, however, a lack of agreement as to whether we should distinguish these risks from others and, if so, what should be the adopted approach for their governance. After reviewing a large set of definitions and conceptions of emerging risks, this article aims at exploring the existence of distinctive features allowing the characterization of a risk as emerging or not...
January 17, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28095598/evaluating-the-cost-safety-and-proliferation-risks-of-small-floating-nuclear-reactors
#19
Michael J Ford, Ahmed Abdulla, M Granger Morgan
It is hard to see how our energy system can be decarbonized if the world abandons nuclear power, but equally hard to introduce the technology in nonnuclear energy states. This is especially true in countries with limited technical, institutional, and regulatory capabilities, where safety and proliferation concerns are acute. Given the need to achieve serious emissions mitigation by mid-century, and the multidecadal effort required to develop robust nuclear governance institutions, we must look to other models that might facilitate nuclear plant deployment while mitigating the technology's risks...
January 17, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28095597/recollection-bias-and-its-underpinnings-lessons-from-terrorism-risk-assessments
#20
W Kip Viscusi, Richard J Zeckhauser
Recollection bias is the phenomenon whereby people who observe a highly unexpected event hold current risk beliefs about a similar event that are no higher than their recollection of their prior beliefs. This article replicates and extends the authors' previous study of recollection bias in relation to individuals' perceptions of the risks of terrorism attacks. Over 60% of respondents in a national U.S. sample of over 900 adults believe that the current risk of a future terrorist attack by either an airplane or in a public setting is no higher than they recall having believed, respectively, before the 9/11 attack and before the Boston Marathon bombing...
January 17, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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