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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29139137/potential-exposure-and-cancer-risk-from-formaldehyde-emissions-from-installed-chinese-manufactured-laminate-flooring
#1
Patrick Sheehan, Ankur Singhal, Kenneth T Bogen, David MacIntosh, Renee M Kalmes, John McCarthy
Lumber Liquidators (LL) Chinese-manufactured laminate flooring (CLF) has been installed in >400,000 U.S. homes over the last decade. To characterize potential associated formaldehyde exposures and cancer risks, chamber emissions data were collected from 399 new LL CLF, and from LL CLF installed in 899 homes in which measured aggregate indoor formaldehyde concentrations exceeded 100 μg/m(3) from a total of 17,867 homes screened. Data from both sources were combined to characterize LL CLF flooring-associated formaldehyde emissions from new boards and installed boards...
November 15, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29119587/perceptions-and-expected-immediate-reactions-to-severe-storm-displays
#2
Ihnji Jon, Shih-Kai Huang, Michael K Lindell
The National Weather Service has adopted warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area than its previous county-wide warnings. However, these polygons are not defined in terms of numerical strike probabilities (ps ). To better understand people's interpretations of warning polygons, 167 participants were shown 23 hypothetical scenarios in one of three information conditions-polygon-only (Condition A), polygon + tornadic storm cell (Condition B), and polygon + tornadic storm cell + flanking nontornadic storm cells (Condition C)...
November 9, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29105804/comparative-probabilistic-assessment-of-occupational-pesticide-exposures-based-on-regulatory-assessments
#3
Jane G Pouzou, Alison C Cullen, Michael G Yost, John C Kissel, Richard A Fenske
Implementation of probabilistic analyses in exposure assessment can provide valuable insight into the risks of those at the extremes of population distributions, including more vulnerable or sensitive subgroups. Incorporation of these analyses into current regulatory methods for occupational pesticide exposure is enabled by the exposure data sets and associated data currently used in the risk assessment approach of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Monte Carlo simulations were performed on exposure measurements from the Agricultural Handler Exposure Database and the Pesticide Handler Exposure Database along with data from the Exposure Factors Handbook and other sources to calculate exposure rates for three different neurotoxic compounds (azinphos methyl, acetamiprid, emamectin benzoate) across four pesticide-handling scenarios...
November 6, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29105803/a-comparison-of-the-bow-tie-and-stamp-approaches-to-reduce-the-risk-of-surgical-instrument-retention
#4
Maria Mikela Chatzimichailidou, James Ward, Tim Horberry, P John Clarkson
Although relatively rare, surgical instrument retention inside a patient following central venous catheterization still presents a significant risk. The research presented here compared two approaches to help reduce retention risk: Bow-Tie Analysis and Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes. Each method was undertaken separately and then the results of the two approaches were compared and combined. Both approaches produced beneficial results that added to existing domain knowledge, and a combination of the two methods was found to be beneficial...
November 6, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29098707/the-cancer-risk-associated-with-residential-exposure-to-soil-containing-radioactive-coal-combustion-residuals
#5
Kevin M Towle, Neva F B Jacobs, James J Keenan, Andrew D Monnot
Coal combustion residuals (CCRs) are composed of various constituents, including radioactive materials. The objective of this study was to utilize methodology on radionuclide risk assessment from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to estimate the potential cancer risks associated with residential exposure to CCR-containing soil. We evaluated potential radionuclide exposure via soil ingestion, inhalation of soil particulates, and external exposure to ionizing radiation using published CCR radioactivity values for (232) Th, (228) Ra, (238) U, and (226) Ra from the Appalachia, Illinois, and Powder River coal basins...
November 3, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29098702/risk-assessment-of-human-toxoplasmosis-associated-with-the-consumption-of-pork-meat-in-italy
#6
Roberto Condoleo, Laura Rinaldi, Stefania Sette, Ziad Mezher
Toxoplasmosis is a cosmopolitan disease and has a broad range of hosts, including humans and several wild and domestic animals. The human infection is mostly acquired through the consumption of contaminated food and pork meat has been recognized as one of the major sources of transmission. There are, however, certain fundamental differences between countries; therefore, the present study specifically aims to evaluate the exposure of the Italian population to Toxoplasma gondii through the ingestion of several types of pork meat products habitually consumed in Italy and to estimate the annual number of human infections within two subgroups of the population...
November 3, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29084378/a-probabilistic-analysis-of-surface-water-flood-risk-in-london
#7
Katie Jenkins, Jim Hall, Vassilis Glenis, Chris Kilsby
Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high-intensity events, is known as "surface water flooding." Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events...
October 30, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29084370/people-s-risk-recognition-preceding-evacuation-and-its-role-in-demand-modeling-and-planning
#8
Junji Urata, Adam J Pel
Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time...
October 30, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29084366/a-value-measure-for-public-sector-enterprise-risk-management-a-tsa-case-study
#9
Kenneth C Fletcher, Ali E Abbas
This article presents a public value measure that can be used to aid executives in the public sector to better assess policy decisions and maximize value to the American people. Using Transportation Security Administration (TSA) programs as an example, we first identify the basic components of public value. We then propose a public value account to quantify the outcomes of various risk scenarios, and we determine the certain equivalent of several important TSA programs. We illustrate how this proposed measure can quantify the effects of two main challenges that government organizations face when conducting enterprise risk management: (1) short-term versus long-term incentives and (2) avoiding potential negative consequences even if they occur with low probability...
October 30, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29084356/interdependent-network-recovery-games
#10
Andrew M Smith, Andrés D González, Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio, Raissa M D'Souza
Recovery of interdependent infrastructure networks in the presence of catastrophic failure is crucial to the economy and welfare of society. Recently, centralized methods have been developed to address optimal resource allocation in postdisaster recovery scenarios of interdependent infrastructure systems that minimize total cost. In real-world systems, however, multiple independent, possibly noncooperative, utility network controllers are responsible for making recovery decisions, resulting in suboptimal decentralized processes...
October 30, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29084354/influence-of-distribution-of-animals-between-dose-groups-on-estimated-benchmark-dose-and-animal-welfare-for-continuous-effects
#11
Joakim Ringblom, Fereshteh Kalantari, Gunnar Johanson, Mattias Öberg
The benchmark dose (BMD) approach is increasingly used as a preferred approach for dose-effect analysis, but standard experimental designs are generally not optimized for BMD analysis. The aim of this study was to evaluate how the use of unequally sized dose groups affects the quality of BMD estimates in toxicity testing, with special consideration of the total burden of animal distress. We generated continuous dose-effect data by Monte Carlo simulation using two dose-effect curves based on endpoints with different shape parameters...
October 30, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29084353/risk-mapping-of-groundwater-drawdown-induced-land-subsidence-in-heterogeneous-soils-on-large-areas
#12
Jonas Sundell, Ezra Haaf, Tommy Norberg, Claes Alén, Mats Karlsson, Lars Rosén
Groundwater leakage into subsurface constructions can cause reduction of pore pressure and subsidence in clay deposits, even at large distances from the location of the construction. The potential cost of damage is substantial, particularly in urban areas. The large-scale process also implies heterogeneous soil conditions that cannot be described in complete detail, which causes a need for estimating uncertainty of subsidence with probabilistic methods. In this study, the risk for subsidence is estimated by coupling two probabilistic models, a geostatistics-based soil stratification model with a subsidence model...
October 30, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29059714/using-a-web-based-diary-method-to-estimate-risks-and-benefits-from-fish-consumption
#13
Nancy A Connelly, T Bruce Lauber, Jeff Niederdeppe, Barbara A Knuth
Accurate estimates of the amount and type of fish people eat are necessary to determine the health benefits and risks of consuming fish, and to assess compliance with fish consumption guidelines issued for fish affected by chemical contaminants. We developed a web-based and mobile-phone-enabled diary methodology to collect detailed fish consumption information for two 16-week periods in the summers of 2014 and 2015. We recruited study participants from two populations living in the Great Lakes region-women of childbearing age (WCBA) and urban residents who had purchased fishing licenses...
October 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29059710/correlation-of-noncancer-benchmark-doses-in-short-and-long-term-rodent-bioassays
#14
Jessica Kratchman, Bing Wang, John Fox, George Gray
This study investigated whether, in the absence of chronic noncancer toxicity data, short-term noncancer toxicity data can be used to predict chronic toxicity effect levels by focusing on the dose-response relationship instead of a critical effect. Data from National Toxicology Program (NTP) technical reports have been extracted and modeled using the Environmental Protection Agency's Benchmark Dose Software. Best-fit, minimum benchmark dose (BMD), and benchmark dose lower limits (BMDLs) have been modeled for all NTP pathologist identified significant nonneoplastic lesions, final mean body weight, and mean organ weight of 41 chemicals tested by NTP between 2000 and 2012...
October 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29059704/toward-probabilistic-prediction-of-flash-flood-human-impacts
#15
Galateia Terti, Isabelle Ruin, Jonathan J Gourley, Pierre Kirstetter, Zachary Flamig, Juliette Blanchet, Ami Arthur, Sandrine Anquetin
This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance-specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle-related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category...
October 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29059702/perceptions-of-risk-and-vulnerability-following-exposure-to-a-major-natural-disaster-the-calgary-flood-of-2013
#16
Alexa Tanner, Joseph Árvai
Many studies have examined the general public's flood risk perceptions in the aftermath of local and regional flooding. However, relatively few studies have focused on large-scale events that affect tens of thousands of people within an urban center. Similarly, in spite of previous research on flood risks, unresolved questions persist regarding the variables that might influence perceptions of risk and vulnerability, along with management preferences. In light of the opportunities presented by these knowledge gaps, the research reported here examined public perceptions of flood risk and vulnerability, and management preferences, within the city of Calgary in the aftermath of extensive flooding in 2013...
October 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29059698/communicating-geographical-risks-in-crisis-management-the-need-for-research
#17
Simon French, Nikolaos Argyris, Stephanie M Haywood, Matthew C Hort, Jim Q Smith
In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps...
October 23, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29023965/a-framework-for-understanding-uncertainty-in-seismic-risk-assessment
#18
Roxane Foulser-Piggott, Gary Bowman, Martin Hughes
A better understanding of the uncertainty that exists in models used for seismic risk assessment is critical to improving risk-based decisions pertaining to earthquake safety. Current models estimating the probability of collapse of a building do not consider comprehensively the nature and impact of uncertainty. This article presents a model framework to enhance seismic risk assessment and thus gives decisionmakers a fuller understanding of the nature and limitations of the estimates. This can help ensure that risks are not over- or underestimated and the value of acquiring accurate data is appreciated fully...
October 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29023909/risks-of-allergic-contact-dermatitis-elicited-by-nickel-chromium-and-organic-sensitizers-quantitative-models-based-on-clinical-patch-test-data
#19
Kenneth T Bogen, Michael R Garry
Risks of allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) from consumer products intended for extended (nonpiercing) dermal contact are regulated by E.U. Directive EN 1811 that limits released Ni to a weekly equivalent dermal load of ≤0.5 μg/cm(2) . Similar approaches for thousands of known organic sensitizers are hampered by inability to quantify respective ACD-elicitation risk levels. To help address this gap, normalized values of cumulative risk for eliciting a positive ("≥+") clinical patch test response reported in 12 studies for a total of n = 625 Ni-sensitized patients were modeled in relation to observed ACD-eliciting Ni loads, yielding an approximate lognormal (LN) distribution with a geometric mean and standard deviation of GMNi = 15 μg/cm(2) and GSDNi = 8...
October 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29023908/setting-priorities-in-behavioral-interventions-an-application-to-reducing-phishing-risk
#20
Casey Inez Canfield, Baruch Fischhoff
Phishing risk is a growing area of concern for corporations, governments, and individuals. Given the evidence that users vary widely in their vulnerability to phishing attacks, we demonstrate an approach for assessing the benefits and costs of interventions that target the most vulnerable users. Our approach uses Monte Carlo simulation to (1) identify which users were most vulnerable, in signal detection theory terms; (2) assess the proportion of system-level risk attributable to the most vulnerable users; (3) estimate the monetary benefit and cost of behavioral interventions targeting different vulnerability levels; and (4) evaluate the sensitivity of these results to whether the attacks involve random or spear phishing...
October 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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