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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30650213/let-s-call-it-quits-break-even-effects-in-the-decision-to-stop-taking-risks
#1
Peter A F Fraser-Mackenzie, Tiejun Ma, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie E V Johnson
"Chasing" behavior, whereby individuals, driven by a desire to break even, continue a risky activity (RA) despite incurring large losses, is a commonly observed phenomenon. We examine whether the desire to break even plays a wider role in decisions to stop engaging in financially motivated RA in a naturalistic setting. We test hypotheses, motivated by this research question, using a large data set: 707,152 transactions of 5,379 individual financial market spread traders between September 2004 and April 2013...
January 16, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30650211/the-influence-of-feelings-while-driving-regular-cars-on-the-perception-and-acceptance-of-self-driving-cars
#2
Martina Raue, Lisa A D'Ambrosio, Carley Ward, Chaiwoo Lee, Claire Jacquillat, Joseph F Coughlin
Self-driving vehicles will affect the future of transportation, but factors that underlie perception and acceptance of self-driving cars are yet unclear. Research on feelings as information and the affect heuristic has suggested that feelings are an important source of information, especially in situations of complexity and uncertainty. In this study (N = 1,484), we investigated how feelings related to traditional driving affect risk perception, benefit perception, and trust related to self-driving cars as well as people's acceptance of the technology...
January 16, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30650199/modeling-the-cost-effectiveness-of-fire-protection-resource-allocation-in-the-united-states-models-and-a-1980-2014-case-study
#3
Adam Behrendt, Vineet M Payyappalli, Jun Zhuang
The estimated cost of fire in the United States is about $329 billion a year, yet there are gaps in the literature to measure the effectiveness of investment and to allocate resources optimally in fire protection. This article fills these gaps by creating data-driven empirical and theoretical models to study the effectiveness of nationwide fire protection investment in reducing economic and human losses. The regression between investment and loss vulnerability shows high R2 values (≈0.93). This article also contributes to the literature by modeling strategic (national-level or state-level) resource allocation (RA) for fire protection with equity-efficiency trade-off considerations, while existing literature focuses on operational-level RA...
January 16, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30644577/integrated-risk-assessment-and-management-methods-are-necessary-for-effective-implementation-of-natural-hazards-policy
#4
David R Johnson
A transdisciplinary, integrated risk assessment and risk management process is particularly beneficial to the development of policies addressing risk from natural hazards. Strategies based on isolated risk assessment and management processes, guided by traditional "predict, then act" methods for decision making, may induce major regret if future conditions diverge from predictions. Analytic methods designed to identify robust solutions-those that perform satisfactorily over a broader range of future conditions-are more suitable for management of natural hazards risks, for at least three major reasons discussed within...
January 14, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30625248/exploring-the-conceptual-foundation-of-continuity-management-in-the-context-of-societal-safety
#5
Henrik Hassel, Alexander Cedergren
Public and private actors with critical roles for ensuring societal safety need to work proactively to reduce risks and vulnerabilities. Traditionally, risk management activities have often been performed in order to ensure continuous functioning of key societal services. Recently, however, business continuity management (BCM), and its analytical subcomponent business impact assessment (BIA), has been introduced and used more extensively by both the private and public sector in order to increase the robustness and resilience of critical infrastructures and societal functions and services...
January 9, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30609086/potential-of-citizen-science-for-enhancing-infrastructure-monitoring-data-and-decision-support-models-for-local-communities
#6
Nasir Gharaibeh, Isaac Oti, Michelle Meyer, Marccus Hendricks, Shannon Van Zandt
Citizen science is a process by which volunteer members of the public, who commonly lack advanced training in science, engage in scientific activities (e.g., data collection) that might otherwise be beyond the reach of professional researchers or practitioners. The purpose of this article is to discuss how citizen-science projects coordinated by interdisciplinary teams of engineers and social scientists can potentially enhance infrastructure monitoring data and decision-support models for local communities...
January 4, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30602071/a-study-on-a-sequential-one-defender-n-attacker-game
#7
Zhiheng Xu, Jun Zhuang
Government usually faces threat from multiple attackers. However, in the literature, researchers often model attackers as one monolithic player who chooses whether to attack, how much investment to spend, and on which target, instead of treating multiple attackers as independent agents. This modeling strategy may potentially cause suboptimal defense investment if the attackers have vastly different interests and preferences and may not be combined as one in theory. In this article, we develop a sequential game with complete information...
January 2, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30586167/risk-and-quantification-a-linguistic-study
#8
Max Boholm
In risk analysis and research, the concept of risk is often understood quantitatively. For example, risk is commonly defined as the probability of an unwanted event or as its probability multiplied by its consequences. This article addresses (1) to what extent and (2) how the noun risk is actually used quantitatively. Uses of the noun risk are analyzed in four linguistic corpora, both Swedish and English (mostly American English). In total, over 16,000 uses of the noun risk are studied in 14 random (n = 500) or complete samples (where n ranges from 173 to 5,144) of, for example, news and magazine articles, fiction, and websites of government agencies...
December 26, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30582890/risk-and-planning-in-agriculture-how-planning-on-dairy-farms-in-ireland-is-affected-by-farmers-regulatory-focus
#9
John Garvey, Gordon Sirr, Deirdre O'Shea, Fergal O'Brien
This article examines how planning on dairy farms is affected by farmers' motivation. It argues that farmers' choice of expansion strategies can be specified in terms of risk decision making and understood as either prevention-focused or promotion-focused motivation. This relationship was empirically examined using mediated regression analyses where promotion/prevention focus was the independent variable and its effect on total milk production via planned expansion strategies was examined. The results indicate that promotion focus among farmers has an indirect effect on farm expansion via planning strategies that incur greater risk to the farm enterprise...
December 24, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30582887/recalibration-of-the-grunow-finke-assessment-tool-to-improve-performance-in-detecting-unnatural-epidemics
#10
Xin Chen, Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, Chandini Raina MacIntyre
Successful identification of unnatural epidemics relies on a sensitive risk assessment tool designed for the differentiation between unnatural and natural epidemics. The Grunow-Finke tool (GFT), which has been the most widely used, however, has low sensitivity in such differentiation. We aimed to recalibrate the GFT and improve the performance in detection of unnatural epidemics. The comparator was the original GFT and its application in 11 historical outbreaks, including eight confirmed unnatural outbreaks and three natural outbreaks...
December 24, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30570768/predictive-modeling-and-categorizing-likelihoods-of-quarantine-pest-introduction-of-imported-propagative-commodities-from-different-countries
#11
ByeongJoon Kim, Seung Cheon Hong, Daniel Egger, Catherine S Katsar, Robert L Griffin
The present study investigates U.S. Department of Agriculture inspection records in the Agricultural Quarantine Activity System database to estimate the probability of quarantine pests on propagative plant materials imported from various countries of origin and to develop a methodology ranking the risk of country-commodity combinations based on quarantine pest interceptions. Data collected from October 2014 to January 2016 were used for developing predictive models and validation study. A generalized linear model with Bayesian inference and a generalized linear mixed effects model were used to compare the interception rates of quarantine pests on different country-commodity combinations...
December 20, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30566751/the-use-of-telematics-devices-to-improve-automobile-insurance-rates
#12
Montserrat Guillen, Jens Perch Nielsen, Mercedes Ayuso, Ana M Pérez-Marín
Most automobile insurance databases contain a large number of policyholders with zero claims. This high frequency of zeros may reflect the fact that some insureds make little use of their vehicle, or that they do not wish to make a claim for small accidents in order to avoid an increase in their premium, but it might also be because of good driving. We analyze information on exposure to risk and driving habits using telematics data from a pay-as-you-drive sample of insureds. We include distance traveled per year as part of an offset in a zero-inflated Poisson model to predict the excess of zeros...
December 19, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30557463/an-approach-for-guiding-the-development-and-assessing-the-interdisciplinarity-of-new-methodologies-for-community-disaster-resilience
#13
Elaina J Sutley
There are critical and preventable inequalities in disaster impacts and postdisaster recovery. To formulate solutions for minimizing or preventing these unequal impacts, there is a great need for interdisciplinary methodologies that use social factors to set project scopes and drive engineering analyses and designs. At present time, however, limited guidance exists on how to develop and execute interdisciplinary methodologies, especially related to the study of community disaster resilience. This article offers an approach for developing and assessing interdisciplinary research methodologies...
December 17, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30549463/a-new-methodology-for-before-after-safety-assessment-using-survival-analysis-and-longitudinal-data
#14
Kun Xie, Kaan Ozbay, Hong Yang, Di Yang
The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before-after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before-after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application...
December 14, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30549458/four-decades-of-public-participation-in-risk-decision-making
#15
Thomas Webler, Seth Tuler
Over the past four decades, the promise of public participation to improve decisions, obtain legitimacy, and build capacity for risk decision making and management has had a mixed record. In this article, we offer a narrative of how public participation has evolved in the United States and we examine prospects for its future. We trace three forces that have had significant impact on practice: an emergent emphasis on democratic deliberation, a transition from dichotomous thinking about science versus politics to an integrated perspective, and the recognition that different parties to the decision-making process bring valid epistemological contributions...
December 14, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30548538/the-inter-within-interdisciplinary-research-strategies-for-building-integration-across-fields
#16
Rebecca E Morss, Heather Lazrus, Julie L Demuth
As emphasis on interdisciplinary and convergent research grows, researchers and institutions can benefit from additional insights into how to build interdisciplinary integration within the research process. This article presents signs of successful interdisciplinary research and proposes strategies that researchers can implement to help create and sustain integration across fields. Drawing on the authors' experiences, other examples from hazards research, and the literature on interdisciplinarity, the article asserts that successful interdisciplinary research incorporates full intellectual participation by each contributing field, forming a multiway partnership...
December 12, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30536453/evaluating-collaborative-readiness-for-interdisciplinary-flood-research
#17
Eric Tate, Valerie Decker, Craig Just
Increasing trends in global flood risk are driven by a complex web of interactions among natural, built environment, and social systems. As a result, flood resilience research is an ideal topic for an interdisciplinary approach. Core characteristics of interdisciplinary research are team collaboration and the systematic integration of disciplinary knowledge, in both problem formulation and analytical methods. Indicators of interdisciplinarity tend to focus on scholarly outcomes, but collaborative processes may be even more important for knowledge integration...
December 11, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30536900/science-for-policy-a-case-study-of-scientific-polarization-values-and-the-framing-of-risk-and-uncertainty
#18
Sarah Mason-Renton, Marco Vazquez, Connor Robinson, Gunilla Oberg
It is well documented that more research can lead to hardened positions, particularly when dealing with complex, controversial, and value-laden issues. This study is an attempt to unveil underlying values in a contemporary debate, where both sides use scientific evidence to support their argument. We analyze the problem framing, vocabulary, interpretation of evidence, and policy recommendations, with particular attention to the framing of nature and technology. We find clear differences between the two arguments...
December 10, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30536708/the-call-for-a-shift-from-risk-to-resilience-what-does-it-mean
#19
Terje Aven
In recent years calls have been made for a shift from risk to resilience. The basic idea is that we need to be prepared when threatening events occur, whether they are anticipated or unforeseen. This article questions the extent to which this call will have and should have implications for the risk field and science. Is the call based on a belief that this field and science should be replaced by resilience analysis and management, or is it more about priorities: Should more weight be placed on improving resilience? The article argues that the only meaningful interpretation of the call is the latter...
December 10, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/30500979/are-we-adapting-to-floods-evidence-from-global-flooding-fatalities
#20
Qing Miao
There has been a growing interest in understanding whether and how people adapt to extreme weather events in a changing climate. This article presents one of the first empirical analyses of adaptation to flooding on a global scale. Using a sample of 97 countries between 1985 and 2010, we investigate the extent and pattern of flood adaptation by estimating the effects of a country's climatological risk, recent flood experiences, and socioeconomic characteristics on its flood-related fatalities. Our results provide mixed evidence on adaptation: countries facing greater long-term climatological flooding risks do not necessarily adapt better and suffer fewer fatalities; however, after controlling for the cross-country heterogeneity, we find that more recent flooding shocks have a significant and negative effect on fatalities from subsequent floods...
November 30, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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