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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27893165/enabling-stakeholder-involvement-in-coastal-disaster-resilience-planning
#1
Thomas P Bostick, Thomas H Holzer, Shahryar Sarkani
Coastal hazards including storm surge, sea-level rise, and cyclone winds continue to have devastating effects on infrastructure systems and communities despite costly investments in risk management. Risk management has generally not been sufficiently focused on coastal resilience, with community stakeholders involved in the process of making their coastline, as a system, more resilient to coastal storms. Thus, without stakeholder earlier involvement in coastal resilience planning for their community, they are frustrated after disasters occur...
November 28, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27893160/integrating-household-risk-mitigation-behavior-in-flood-risk-analysis-an-agent-based-model-approach
#2
Toon Haer, W J Wouter Botzen, Hans de Moel, Jeroen C J H Aerts
Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating...
November 28, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27866376/reduction-in-dietary-acrylamide-exposure-impact-of-potatoes-with-low-acrylamide-potential
#3
Nga L Tran, Leila M Barraj, Susan Collinge
Acrylamide forms primarily from a reaction between reducing sugars (e.g., glucose and fructose) and an amino acid (asparagine, Asn) formed naturally in foods, including potatoes. This reaction occurs when carbohydrate-rich foods are heated at temperatures above 120 °C. Multiple potato varieties were transformed with potato genomic DNA that results in down-regulation of the expression of the asparagine synthetase-1 gene (Asn1), significantly reducing synthesis of free Asn, and consequently lowering the potential to form acrylamide during cooking...
November 20, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27862134/application-of-graph-theory-to-cost-effective-fire-protection-of-chemical-plants-during-domino-effects
#4
Nima Khakzad, Gabriele Landucci, Genserik Reniers
In the present study, we have introduced a methodology based on graph theory and multicriteria decision analysis for cost-effective fire protection of chemical plants subject to fire-induced domino effects. By modeling domino effects in chemical plants as a directed graph, the graph centrality measures such as out-closeness and betweenness scores can be used to identify the installations playing a key role in initiating and propagating potential domino effects. It is demonstrated that active fire protection of installations with the highest out-closeness score and passive fire protection of installations with the highest betweenness score are the most effective strategies for reducing the vulnerability of chemical plants to fire-induced domino effects...
November 10, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27862133/u-k-foot-and-mouth-disease-a-systemic-risk-assessment-of-existing-controls
#5
João Delgado, Simon Pollard, Kerry Pearn, Emma L Snary, Edgar Black, George Prpich, Phil Longhurst
This article details a systemic analysis of the controls in place and possible interventions available to further reduce the risk of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom. Using a research-based network analysis tool, we identify vulnerabilities within the multibarrier control system and their corresponding critical control points (CCPs). CCPs represent opportunities for active intervention that produce the greatest improvement to United Kingdom's resilience to future FMD outbreaks. Using an adapted 'features, events, and processes' (FEPs) methodology and network analysis, our results suggest that movements of animals and goods associated with legal activities significantly influence the system's behavior due to their higher frequency and ability to combine and create scenarios of exposure similar in origin to the U...
November 10, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27862121/designing-graphs-to-communicate-risks-understanding-how-the-choice-of-graphical-format-influences-decision-making
#6
Eric R Stone, Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Abigail M Wilkins, Emily M Boker, Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson
Previous research suggests that the choice of graphical format for communicating risk information affects both understanding of the risk magnitude and the likelihood of acting to decrease risk. However, the mechanisms through which these effects work are poorly understood. To explore these mechanisms using a real-world scenario, we examined the relative impact of two graphical displays for depicting the risk of exposure to unexploded ammunition during potential land redevelopment. One display depicted only the foreground information graphically (a bar graph of the number of people harmed), and a second depicted the foreground and background graphically (a stacked bar graph representing both the number harmed and at risk)...
November 10, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27862114/a-bayesian-model-and-stochastic-exposure-dose-estimation-for-relative-exposure-risk-comparison-involving-asbestos-containing-dropped-ceiling-panel-installation-and-maintenance-tasks
#7
Fred W Boelter, Yulin Xia, Jacob D Persky
Assessing exposures to hazards in order to characterize risk is at the core of occupational hygiene. Our study examined dropped ceiling systems commonly used in schools and commercial buildings and lay-in ceiling panels that may have contained asbestos prior to the mid to late 1970s. However, most ceiling panels and tiles do not contain asbestos. Since asbestos risk relates to dose, we estimated the distribution of eight-hour TWA concentrations and one-year exposures (a one-year dose equivalent) to asbestos fibers (asbestos f/cc-years) for five groups of workers who may encounter dropped ceilings: specialists, generalists, maintenance workers, nonprofessional do-it-yourself (DIY) persons, and other tradespersons who are bystanders to ceiling work...
November 10, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27862106/bridging-the-gap-between-social-acceptance-and-ethical-acceptability
#8
Behnam Taebi
New technology brings great benefits, but it can also create new and significant risks. When evaluating those risks in policymaking, there is a tendency to focus on social acceptance. By solely focusing on social acceptance, we could, however, overlook important ethical aspects of technological risk, particularly when we evaluate technologies with transnational and intergenerational risks. I argue that good governance of risky technology requires analyzing both social acceptance and ethical acceptability. Conceptually, these two notions are mostly complementary...
November 10, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27779791/improving-hurricane-power-outage-prediction-models-through-the-inclusion-of-local-environmental-factors
#9
D Brent McRoberts, Steven M Quiring, Seth D Guikema
Tropical cyclones can significantly damage the electrical power system, so an accurate spatiotemporal forecast of outages prior to landfall can help utilities to optimize the power restoration process. The purpose of this article is to enhance the predictive accuracy of the Spatially Generalized Hurricane Outage Prediction Model (SGHOPM) developed by Guikema et al. (2014). In this version of the SGHOPM, we introduce a new two-step prediction procedure and increase the number of predictor variables. The first model step predicts whether or not outages will occur in each location and the second step predicts the number of outages...
October 25, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27760278/hazard-characteristics-and-patterns-of-environmental-injustice-household-level-determinants-of-environmental-risk-in-miami-florida
#10
Sara E Grineski, Timothy W Collins, Jayajit Chakraborty, Marilyn Montgomery
Limited systematic comparative knowledge exists about patterns of environmental injustices in exposure to varied natural and technological hazards. To address this gap, we examine how hazard characteristics (i.e., punctuated event/suddenness of onset, frequency/magnitude, and divisibility) influence relationships between race/ethnicity, nativity, socioeconomic status (SES), older age, housing tenure, and residential hazard exposure. Sociodemographic data come from a random sample survey of 602 residents of the tricounty Miami Metropolitan Statistical Area (Florida)...
October 19, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27704592/guidelines-for-use-of-the-approximate-beta-poisson-dose-response-model
#11
Gang Xie, Anne Roiko, Helen Stratton, Charles Lemckert, Peter K Dunn, Kerrie Mengersen
For dose-response analysis in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), the exact beta-Poisson model is a two-parameter mechanistic dose-response model with parameters α>0 and β>0, which involves the Kummer confluent hypergeometric function. Evaluation of a hypergeometric function is a computational challenge. Denoting PI(d) as the probability of infection at a given mean dose d, the widely used dose-response model PI(d)=1-(1+dβ)-α is an approximate formula for the exact beta-Poisson model. Notwithstanding the required conditions α<β and β>1, issues related to the validity and approximation accuracy of this approximate formula have remained largely ignored in practice, partly because these conditions are too general to provide clear guidance...
October 5, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27689853/communicating-conservation-status-how-different-statistical-assessment-criteria-affect-perceptions-of-extinction-risk
#12
Hwanseok Song, Jonathon P Schuldt
Although alternative forms of statistical and verbal information are routinely used to convey species' extinction risk to policymakers and the public, little is known about their effects on audience information processing and risk perceptions. To address this gap in literature, we report on an experiment that was designed to explore how perceptions of extinction risk differ as a function of five different assessment benchmarks (Criteria A-E) used by scientists to classify species within IUCN Red List risk levels (e...
September 30, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27689783/resilience-analytics-with-application-to-power-grid-of-a-developing-region
#13
Heimir Thorisson, James H Lambert, John J Cardenas, Igor Linkov
Infrastructure development of volatile regions is a significant investment by international government and nongovernment organizations, with attendant requirements for risk management. Global development banks may be tasked to manage these investments and provide a channel between donors and borrowers. Moreover, various stakeholders from the private sector, local and international agencies, and the military can be engaged in conception, planning, and implementation of constituent projects. Emergent and future conditions of military conflict, politics, economics, technology, environment, behaviors, institutions, and society that stress infrastructure development are prevalent, and funding mechanisms are vulnerable to fraud, waste, and abuse...
September 30, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27689685/bioaccessibility-of-fukushima-accident-derived-cs-in-soils-and-the-contribution-of-soil-ingestion-to-radiation-doses-in-children
#14
Shogo Takahara, Maiko Ikegami, Minoru Yoneda, Hitoshi Kondo, Azusa Ishizaki, Masashi Iijima, Yoko Shimada, Yasuto Matsui
Ingestion of contaminated soil is one potential internal exposure pathway in areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Doses from this pathway can be overestimated if the availability of radioactive nuclides in soils for the gastrointestinal tract is not considered. The concept of bioaccessibility has been adopted to evaluate this availability based on in vitro tests. This study evaluated the bioaccessibility of radioactive cesium from soils via the physiologically-based extraction test (PBET) and the extractability of those via an extraction test with 1 mol/L of hydrochloric acid (HCl)...
September 30, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27667776/seeing-what-you-want-to-see-how-imprecise-uncertainty-ranges-enhance-motivated-reasoning
#15
Nathan F Dieckmann, Robin Gregory, Ellen Peters, Robert Hartman
In this article, we consider a novel criterion for evaluating representations of uncertainty ranges, namely, the extent to which a representation enhances motivated reasoning. In two studies, we show that perceptions of the distribution underlying ambiguous numerical ranges are affected by the motivations and worldviews of end users. This motivated reasoning effect remained after controlling for objective numeracy and fluid intelligence but was attenuated when the correct interpretation was made clear. We suggest that analysts and communicators explicitly consider the potential for motivated evaluation when evaluating uncertainty displays...
September 26, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27664078/a-framework-for-assessing-uncertainty-associated-with-human-health-risks-from-msw-landfill-leachate-contamination
#16
Harshit Mishra, Subhankar Karmakar, Rakesh Kumar, Jitendra Singh
Landfilling is a cost-effective method, which makes it a widely used practice around the world, especially in developing countries. However, because of the improper management of landfills, high leachate leakage can have adverse impacts on soils, plants, groundwater, aquatic organisms, and, subsequently, human health. A comprehensive survey of the literature finds that the probabilistic quantification of uncertainty based on estimations of the human health risks due to landfill leachate contamination has rarely been reported...
September 24, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27664001/comparative-human-health-impact-assessment-of-engineered-nanomaterials-in-the-framework-of-life-cycle-assessment
#17
Wouter Fransman, Harrie Buist, Eelco Kuijpers, Tobias Walser, David Meyer, Esther Zondervan-van den Beuken, Joost Westerhout, Rinke H Klein Entink, Derk H Brouwer
For safe innovation, knowledge on potential human health impacts is essential. Ideally, these impacts are considered within a larger life-cycle-based context to support sustainable development of new applications and products. A methodological framework that accounts for human health impacts caused by inhalation of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) in an indoor air environment has been previously developed. The objectives of this study are as follows: (i) evaluate the feasibility of applying the CF framework for NP exposure in the workplace based on currently available data; and (ii) supplement any resulting knowledge gaps with methods and data from the life cycle approach and human risk assessment (LICARA) project to develop a modified case-specific version of the framework that will enable near-term inclusion of NP human health impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA) using a case study involving nanoscale titanium dioxide (nanoTiO2 )...
September 24, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27663864/part-i-comparing-noncancer-chronic-human-health-reference-values-an-analysis-of-science-policy-choices
#18
Elizabeth Holman, Royce Francis, George Gray
The goal of this study was to systematically evaluate the choices made in deriving a chronic oral noncancer human health reference value (HHRV) for a given chemical by different organizations, specifically those from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Health Canada, RIVM (the Netherlands), and the U.S. Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. This analysis presents a methodological approach for comparing both the HHRVs and the specific choices made in the process of deriving an HHRV across these organizations...
September 24, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27663699/integrating-entropy-based-na%C3%A3-ve-bayes-and-gis-for-spatial-evaluation-of-flood-hazard
#19
Rui Liu, Yun Chen, Jianping Wu, Lei Gao, Damian Barrett, Tingbao Xu, Xiaojuan Li, Linyi Li, Chang Huang, Jia Yu
Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net-water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography...
September 24, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27661782/does-medical-risk-perception-and-risk-taking-change-with-age
#20
Yaniv Hanoch, Jonathan J Rolison, Alexandra M Freund
Across adulthood, people face increasingly more risky medical problems and decisions. However, little is known about changes in medical risk taking across adulthood. Therefore, the current cross-sectional study investigated age-related differences in medical risk taking with N = 317 adults aged 20-77 years using newly developed scenarios to assess medical risk taking, and additional measures designed to evaluate risk-taking behavior in the medical domain. Greater expected benefits on the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale-Medical (DOSPERT-M) predicted more active risk taking, whereas higher perceived risk predicted less active risk taking...
September 23, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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