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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28616889/risk-communication-emergency-response-preparedness-contextual-assessment-of-the-protective-action-decision-model
#1
Robert L Heath, Jaesub Lee, Michael J Palenchar, Laura L Lemon
Studies are continuously performed to improve risk communication campaign designs to better prepare residents to act in the safest manner during an emergency. To that end, this article investigates the predictive ability of the protective action decision model (PADM), which links environmental and social cues, predecision processes (attention, exposure, and comprehension), and risk decision perceptions (threat, alternative protective actions, and stakeholder norms) with protective action decision making. This current quasi-longitudinal study of residents (N = 400 for each year) in a high-risk (chemical release) petrochemical manufacturing community investigated whether PADM core risk perceptions predict protective action decision making...
June 14, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28616870/hazard-experience-geophysical-vulnerability-and-flood-risk-perceptions-in-a-postdisaster-city-the-case-of-new-orleans
#2
Kevin Fox Gotham, Richard Campanella, Katie Lauve-Moon, Bradford Powers
This article investigates the determinants of flood risk perceptions in New Orleans, Louisiana (United States), a deltaic coastal city highly vulnerable to seasonal nuisance flooding and hurricane-induced deluges and storm surges. Few studies have investigated the influence of hazard experience, geophysical vulnerability (hazard proximity), and risk perceptions in cities undergoing postdisaster recovery and rebuilding. We use ordinal logistic regression techniques to analyze experiential, geophysical, and sociodemographic variables derived from a survey of 384 residents in seven neighborhoods...
June 14, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28605055/geographic-hotspots-of-critical-national-infrastructure
#3
Scott Thacker, Stuart Barr, Raghav Pant, Jim W Hall, David Alderson
Failure of critical national infrastructures can result in major disruptions to society and the economy. Understanding the criticality of individual assets and the geographic areas in which they are located is essential for targeting investments to reduce risks and enhance system resilience. Within this study we provide new insights into the criticality of real-life critical infrastructure networks by integrating high-resolution data on infrastructure location, connectivity, interdependence, and usage. We propose a metric of infrastructure criticality in terms of the number of users who may be directly or indirectly disrupted by the failure of physically interdependent infrastructures...
June 12, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28605045/a-reliability-based-capability-approach
#4
Armin Tabandeh, Paolo Gardoni, Colleen Murphy
This article proposes a rigorous mathematical approach, named a reliability-based capability approach (RCA), to quantify the societal impact of a hazard. The starting point of the RCA is a capability approach in which capabilities refer to the genuine opportunities open to individuals to achieve valuable doings and beings (such as being mobile and being sheltered) called functionings. Capabilities depend on what individuals have and what they can do with what they have. The article develops probabilistic predictive models that relate the value of each functioning to a set of easily predictable or measurable quantities (regressors) in the aftermath of a hazard...
June 12, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28597480/public-understanding-of-ebola-risks-mastering-an-unfamiliar-threat
#5
Baruch Fischhoff, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi, Dana Rose Garfin, E Alison Holman, Roxane Cohen Silver
Ebola was the most widely followed news story in the United States in October 2014. Here, we ask what members of the U.S. public learned about the disease, given the often chaotic media environment. Early in 2015, we surveyed a representative sample of 3,447 U.S. residents about their Ebola-related beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. Where possible, we elicited judgments in terms sufficiently precise to allow comparing them to scientific estimates (e.g., the death toll to date and the probability of dying once ill)...
June 8, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28586099/benchmarking-discount-rate-in-natural-resource-damage-assessment-with-risk-aversion
#6
Desheng Wu, Shuzhen Chen
Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework...
June 6, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28581037/risk-perception-and-risk-talk-the-case-of-the-fukushima-daiichi-nuclear-radiation-risk
#7
Takashi Kusumi, Rumi Hirayama, Yoshihisa Kashima
Individuals' perceptions and their interpersonal communication about a risk event, or risk talk, can play a significant role in the formation of societal responses to the risk event. As they formulate their risk opinions and speak to others, risk information can circulate through their social networks and contribute to the construction of their risk information environment. In the present study, Japanese citizens' risk perception and risk talk were examined in the context of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear radiation risk...
June 5, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28561947/modeling-the-transmission-of-measles-and-rubella-to-support-global-management-policy-analyses-and-eradication-investment-cases
#8
Kimberly M Thompson, Nima D Badizadegan
Policy makers responsible for managing measles and rubella immunization programs currently use a wide range of different vaccines formulations and immunization schedules. With endemic measles and rubella transmission interrupted in the region of the Americas, all five other regions of the World Health Organization (WHO) targeting the elimination of measles transmission by 2020, and increasing adoption of rubella vaccine globally, integrated dynamic disease, risk, decision, and economic models can help national, regional, and global health leaders manage measles and rubella population immunity...
May 31, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28561899/a-big-data-analysis-approach-for-rail-failure-risk-assessment
#9
Ali Jamshidi, Shahrzad Faghih-Roohi, Siamak Hajizadeh, Alfredo Núñez, Robert Babuska, Rolf Dollevoet, Zili Li, Bart De Schutter
Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks...
May 31, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28561885/the-mediated-amplification-of-a-crisis-communicating-the-a-h1n1-pandemic-in-press-releases-and-press-coverage-in-europe
#10
Constanze Rossmann, Lisa Meyer, Peter J Schulz
In the aftermath of the A/H1N1 pandemic, health authorities were criticized for failures in crisis communication efforts, and the media were accused of amplifying the pandemic. Considering these criticisms, A/H1N1 provides a suitable case for examining risk amplification processes that may occur in the transfer of information from press releases to print news media during a health crisis. We integrated the social amplification of risk framework with theories of news decisions (news values, framing) in an attempt to contribute to existing research both theoretically and empirically...
May 31, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28556354/modeling-precheck-parallel-screening-process-in-the-face-of-strategic-applicants-with-incomplete-information-and-screening-errors
#11
Cen Song, Jun Zhuang
In security check systems, tighter screening processes increase the security level, but also cause more congestion, which could cause longer wait times. Having to deal with more congestion in lines could also cause issues for the screeners. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) Precheck Program was introduced to create fast lanes in airports with the goal of expediting passengers who the TSA does not deem to be threats. In this lane, the TSA allows passengers to enjoy fewer restrictions in order to speed up the screening time...
May 29, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28556273/tracking-and-analyzing-individual-distress-following-terrorist-attacks-using-social-media-streams
#12
Yu-Ru Lin, Drew Margolin, Xidao Wen
Risk research has theorized a number of mechanisms that might trigger, prolong, or potentially alleviate individuals' distress following terrorist attacks. These mechanisms are difficult to examine in a single study, however, because the social conditions of terrorist attacks are difficult to simulate in laboratory experiments and appropriate preattack baselines are difficult to establish with surveys. To address this challenge, we propose the use of computational focus groups and a novel analysis framework to analyze a social media stream that archives user history and location...
May 29, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28556091/incremental-sampling-methodology-applications-for-background-screening-assessments
#13
Penelope S Pooler, Philip E Goodrum, Deana Crumbling, Leah D Stuchal, Stephen M Roberts
This article presents the findings from a numerical simulation study that was conducted to evaluate the performance of alternative statistical analysis methods for background screening assessments when data sets are generated with incremental sampling methods (ISMs). A wide range of background and site conditions are represented in order to test different ISM sampling designs. Both hypothesis tests and upper tolerance limit (UTL) screening methods were implemented following U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidance for specifying error rates...
May 29, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28555958/industrial-safety-and-utopia-insights-from-the-fukushima-daiichi-accident
#14
Sébastien Travadel, Franck Guarnieri, Aurélien Portelli
Feedback from industrial accidents is provided by various state or even international, institutions, and lessons learned can be controversial. However, there has been little research into organizational learning at the international level. This article helps to fill the gap through an in-depth review of official reports of the Fukushima Daiichi accident published shortly after the event. We present a new method to analyze the arguments contained in these voluminous documents. Taking an intertextual perspective, the method focuses on the accident narratives, their rationale, and links between "facts," "causes," and "recommendations...
May 29, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28555941/bias-corrected-estimation-in-continuous-sampling-plans
#15
Geoffrey Decrouez, Andrew Robinson
Continuous sampling plans (CSPs) are algorithms used for monitoring and maintaining the quality of a production line. Although considerable work has been done on the development of CSPs, to our knowledge, there has been no corresponding effort in developing estimators with good statistical properties for data arising from a CSP inspection process. For example, information about the failure rate of the process will affect the management of the process, both in terms of selecting appropriate CSP parameters to keep the failure rate after inspection at a suitable level, and in terms of policy, for example, whether the process should be completely inspected, or shut down...
May 29, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28555874/bayesian-quantile-impairment-threshold-benchmark-dose-estimation-for-continuous-endpoints
#16
Matthew W Wheeler, A John Bailer, Tarah Cole, Robert M Park, Kan Shao
Quantitative risk assessment often begins with an estimate of the exposure or dose associated with a particular risk level from which exposure levels posing low risk to populations can be extrapolated. For continuous exposures, this value, the benchmark dose, is often defined by a specified increase (or decrease) from the median or mean response at no exposure. This method of calculating the benchmark dose does not take into account the response distribution and, consequently, cannot be interpreted based upon probability statements of the target population...
May 29, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28520197/integrated-uncertainty-analysis-for-ambient-pollutant-health-risk-assessment-a-case-study-of-ozone-mortality-risk
#17
Anne E Smith, Garrett Glasgow
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses health risk assessment to help inform its decisions in setting national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS). EPA's standard approach is to make epidemiologically-based risk estimates based on a single statistical model selected from the scientific literature, called the "core" model. The uncertainty presented for "core" risk estimates reflects only the statistical uncertainty associated with that one model's concentration-response function parameter estimate(s)...
May 18, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28471528/modeling-and-managing-the-risks-of-measles-and-rubella-a-global-perspective-part-ii
#18
Kimberly M Thompson
Measles and rubella continue to circulate globally. Complementing Part I of the special issue, this introduction provides a contrast between other global eradication initiatives and the experience with measles and rubella eradication to date. This introduction builds on the syntheses of the literature provided in Part I and it describes the creation and application of a national risk assessment tool and the development of a dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage measles and rubella globally using vaccines...
May 4, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28471504/multi-exposure-pathway-model-to-compare-escherichia-coli-o157-risks-and-interventions
#19
B Chapman, K Pintar, B A Smith
The relative contributions of exposure pathways associated with cattle-manure-borne Escherichia coli O157:H7 on public health have yet to be fully characterized. A stochastic, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was developed to describe a hypothetical cattle farm in order to compare the relative importance of five routes of exposure, including aquatic recreation downstream of the farm, consumption of contaminated ground beef processed with limited interventions, consumption of leafy greens, direct animal contact, and the recreational use of a cattle pasture...
May 4, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28437870/assessing-the-likelihood-and-magnitude-of-a-population-health-benefit-following-the-market-introduction-of-a-modified-risk-tobacco-product-enhancements-to-the-dynamic-population-modeler-dpm-1
#20
Annette M Bachand, Sandra I Sulsky, Geoffrey M Curtin
Researchers and those responsible for evaluating and implementing policies intended to reduce population harm must assess the potential for both intended and unintended consequences associated with those policies. Such assessments should be based on the combined dimensions of magnitude, and thus likelihood, of shifts in exposure patterns needed to produce a population benefit or harm, and magnitude of the expected population benefit or harm. In response to this assessment need, we provide a conceptual description of the dynamic population modeler, DPM(+1), as well as illustrative analyses that estimate the effects on all-cause mortality, life expectancy, and quality of life-adjusted life expectancy if exposure patterns in the population shift from a higher risk product (e...
April 24, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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