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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28799660/when-does-poor-governance-presage-biosecurity-risk
#1
Stephen E Lane, Anthony D Arthur, Christina Aston, Sam Zhao, Andrew P Robinson
Border inspection, and the challenge of deciding which of the tens of millions of consignments that arrive should be inspected, is a perennial problem for regulatory authorities. The objective of these inspections is to minimize the risk of contraband entering the country. As an example, for regulatory authorities in charge of biosecurity material, consignments of goods are classified before arrival according to their economic tariff number. This classification, perhaps along with other information, is used as a screening step to determine whether further biosecurity intervention, such as inspection, is necessary...
August 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28799659/perspectives-on-cybersecurity-information-sharing-among-multiple-stakeholders-using-a-decision-theoretic-approach
#2
Meilin He, Laura Devine, Jun Zhuang
The government, private sectors, and others users of the Internet are increasingly faced with the risk of cyber incidents. Damage to computer systems and theft of sensitive data caused by cyber attacks have the potential to result in lasting harm to entities under attack, or to society as a whole. The effects of cyber attacks are not always obvious, and detecting them is not a simple proposition. As the U.S. federal government believes that information sharing on cybersecurity issues among organizations is essential to safety, security, and resilience, the importance of trusted information exchange has been emphasized to support public and private decision making by encouraging the creation of the Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAC)...
August 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28799658/dynamic-blowout-risk-analysis-using-loss-functions
#3
Majeed Abimbola, Faisal Khan
Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions...
August 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28799655/communicating-earthquake-preparedness-the-influence-of-induced-mood-perceived-risk-and-gain-or-loss-frames-on-homeowners-attitudes-toward-general-precautionary-measures-for-earthquakes
#4
Michèle Marti, Michael Stauffacher, Jörg Matthes, Stefan Wiemer
Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, actual preparedness levels remain universally low. Although earthquake-resistant building design is the most efficient way to decrease potential losses, its application is not a legal requirement across all earthquake-prone countries and even if, often not strictly enforced. Risk communication encouraging homeowners to take precautionary measures is therefore an important means to enhance a country's earthquake resilience. Our study illustrates that specific interactions of mood, perceived risk, and frame type significantly affect homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes...
August 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28799652/environmental-exposure-of-the-adult-french-population-to-permethrin
#5
Marie Hermant, Olivier Blanchard, Guillaume Perouel, Guillaume Boulanger, Mathilde Merlo, Virginie Desvignes
This work aims to assess the exposure to permethrin of the adult French population from available contamination measurements of outdoor air, indoor air, and settled dust. Priority is given to the assessment of chronic exposure, given the potential of permethrin to induce cancers and/or endocrine disorders. A statistical method was devised to calculate exposure to permethrin by different pathways (inhalation, indirect dust ingestion, and dermal contact). This method considers anthropometric parameters, the population's space-time budget, and recent methods for calculating dermal exposure...
August 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28799646/-birds-of-a-feather-fail-together-exploring-the-nature-of-dependency-in-sme-defaults
#6
Raffaella Calabrese, Galina Andreeva, Jake Ansell
This article studies the effects of incorporating the interdependence among London small business defaults into a risk analysis framework using the data just before the financial crisis. We propose an extension from standard scoring models to take into account the spatial dimensions and the demographic characteristics of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), such as legal form, industry sector, and number of employees. We estimate spatial probit models using different distance matrices based only on the spatial location or on an interaction between spatial locations and demographic characteristics...
August 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28796311/predicting-the-risk-of-biological-invasions-using-environmental-similarity-and-transport-network-connectedness
#7
Robert C Cope, Joshua V Ross, Talia A Wittmann, Michael J Watts, Phillip Cassey
Understanding the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions is critical for implementing effective biosecurity management. This may require both a model for physical connectedness between regions, and a measure of environmental similarity, so as to quantify the potential for a species to be transported from a given region and to survive at a destination region. We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the "range bagging" method to determine environmental matching between regions...
August 10, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28795767/communicating-low-probability-high-consequence-risk-uncertainty-and-expert-confidence-induced-seismicity-of-deep-geothermal-energy-and-shale-gas
#8
Theresa A K Knoblauch, Michael Stauffacher, Evelina Trutnevyte
Subsurface energy activities entail the risk of induced seismicity including low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) events. For designing respective risk communication, the scientific literature lacks empirical evidence of how the public reacts to different written risk communication formats about such LPHC events and to related uncertainty or expert confidence. This study presents findings from an online experiment (N = 590) that empirically tested the public's responses to risk communication about induced seismicity and to different technology frames, namely deep geothermal energy (DGE) and shale gas (between-subject design)...
August 10, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28768049/hazard-analysis-and-safety-requirements-for-small-drone-operations-to-what-extent-do-popular-drones-embed-safety
#9
Anastasios Plioutsias, Nektarios Karanikas, Maria Mikela Chatzimihailidou
Currently, published risk analyses for drones refer mainly to commercial systems, use data from civil aviation, and are based on probabilistic approaches without suggesting an inclusive list of hazards and respective requirements. Within this context, this article presents: (1) a set of safety requirements generated from the application of the systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) technique on a generic small drone system; (2) a gap analysis between the set of safety requirements and the ones met by 19 popular drone models; (3) the extent of the differences between those models, their manufacturers, and the countries of origin; and (4) the association of drone prices with the extent they meet the requirements derived by STPA...
August 2, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28768045/examining-factors-that-influence-the-existence-of-heinrich-s-safety-triangle-using-site-specific-h-s-data-from-more-than-25-000-establishments
#10
Patrick L Yorio, Susan M Moore
In the 1930s, Heinrich established one of the most prominent and enduring accident prevention theories when he concluded that high severity occupational safety and health (OSH) incidents are preceded by numerous lower severity incidents and near misses. Seventy-five years of theory expansion/interpretation includes two fundamental tenets: (1) the ratio of lower to higher severity incidents exists in the form of a "safety-triangle" and (2) similar causes underlie both high and low severity events. Although used extensively to inform public policy and establishment-level health and safety priorities, recent research challenges the validity of the two tenets...
August 2, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28767136/is-there-any-hope-how-climate-change-news-imagery-and-text-influence-audience-emotions-and-support-for-climate-mitigation-policies
#11
Lauren Feldman, P Sol Hart
Using a national sample, this study experimentally tests the effects of news visuals and texts that emphasize either the causes and impacts of climate change or actions that can be taken to address climate change. We test the effects of variations in text and imagery on discrete emotions (i.e., hope, fear, and anger) and, indirectly, on support for climate mitigation policies. Political ideology is examined as a moderator. The findings indicate that news images and texts that focus on climate-oriented actions can increase hope and, in the case of texts, decrease fear and anger, and these effects generally hold across the ideological spectrum...
August 2, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28749563/a-probabilistic-framework-for-risk-analysis-of-widespread-flood-events-a-proof-of-concept-study
#12
Klaus Schneeberger, Matthias Huttenlau, Benjamin Winter, Thomas Steinberger, Stefan Achleitner, Johann Stötter
This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top-kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain...
July 27, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28697286/annual-burden-of-occupationally-acquired-influenza-infections-in-hospitals-and-emergency-departments-in-the-united-states
#13
Rachael M Jones, Yulin Xia
Infections among health-care personnel (HCP) occur as a result of providing care to patients with infectious diseases, but surveillance is limited to a few diseases. The objective of this study is to determine the annual number of influenza infections acquired by HCP as a result of occupational exposures to influenza patients in hospitals and emergency departments (EDs) in the United States. A risk analysis approach was taken. A compartmental model was used to estimate the influenza dose received in a single exposure, and a dose-response function applied to calculate the probability of infection...
July 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28697285/an-expert-elicitation-of-the-proliferation-resistance-of-using-small-modular-reactors-smr-for-the-expansion-of-civilian-nuclear-systems
#14
Jonas Siegel, Elisabeth A Gilmore, Nancy Gallagher, Steve Fetter
To facilitate the use of nuclear energy globally, small modular reactors (SMRs) may represent a viable alternative or complement to large reactor designs. One potential benefit is that SMRs could allow for more proliferation resistant designs, manufacturing arrangements, and fuel-cycle practices at widespread deployment. However, there is limited work evaluating the proliferation resistance of SMRs, and existing proliferation assessment approaches are not well suited for these novel arrangements. Here, we conduct an expert elicitation of the relative proliferation resistance of scenarios for future nuclear energy deployment driven by Generation III+ light-water reactors, fast reactors, or SMRs...
July 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28697284/community-driven-hypothesis-testing-a-solution-for-the-tragedy-of-the-anticommons
#15
José Manuel Palma-Oliveira, Benjamin D Trump, Matthew D Wood, Igor Linkov
Shared ownership of property and resources is a longstanding challenge throughout history that has been amplifying with the increasing development of industrial and postindustrial societies. Where governments, project planners, and commercial developers seek to develop new infrastructure, industrial projects, and various other land-and resource-intensive tasks, veto power shared by various local stakeholders can complicate or halt progress. Risk communication has been used as an attempt to address stakeholder concerns in these contexts, but has demonstrated shortcomings...
July 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28697277/who-would-be-willing-to-accept-disaster-debris-in-their-backyard-investigating-the-determinants-of-public-attitudes-in-post-fukushima-japan
#16
Naomi Aoki
In the wake of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, the Ministry of Environment in Japan asked municipalities nationwide to accept and treat disaster waste. This call for cross-jurisdictional waste treatment provoked considerable public controversy. To explore how the national and municipal governments can seek more public acceptance in the wake of future disasters, this study implemented a nationwide survey and addressed the question of what factors influence the public's willingness to support their municipalities' plans to host disaster waste...
July 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28679022/cyber-risk-management-for-critical-infrastructure-a-risk-analysis-model-and-three-case-studies
#17
M-Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Marshall Kuypers, Matthew Smith, Philip Keller
Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks...
July 5, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28675517/wildfire-policy-in-mediterranean-france-how-far-is-it-efficient-and-sustainable
#18
Thomas Curt, Thibaut Frejaville
A new fire policy reinforcing aggressive fire suppression was established in Mediterranean France in response to the devastating wildfires of the 1990s, but to what extent this has changed fire activity yet remains poorly understood. For this purpose, we compared the number and location of ignitions and of burned areas between two 20-year periods (1975-1994 vs. 1995-2014), in parallel to the changes in fuel covering, human activity promoting ignitions, and fire weather. The number of fires decreased almost continuously since 1975, but sharply after 1994, suggesting an effect of better fire prevention due to the new policy...
July 4, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28675477/risk-prioritization-in-the-food-domain-using-deliberative-and-survey-methods-differences-between-experts-and-laypeople
#19
Michael Siegrist, Philipp Hübner, Christina Hartmann
This study examined how experts and laypeople using both a deliberative and a survey method prioritized 28 hazards related to food and everyday items. To enable them to make deliberative decisions, participants received detailed descriptions of the hazards. The participants prioritized the hazards before and after a group discussion, in which the group's average prioritization was discussed. The rankings of the hazards before and after the group discussion were highly correlated. However, laypeople and experts differed significantly in their rankings for 18 of the 28 hazards...
July 4, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28666078/public-perceptions-of-how-long-air-pollution-and-carbon-dioxide-remain-in-the-atmosphere
#20
Rachel Dryden, M Granger Morgan, Ann Bostrom, Wändi Bruine de Bruin
The atmospheric residence time of carbon dioxide is hundreds of years, many orders of magnitude longer than that of common air pollution, which is typically hours to a few days. However, randomly selected respondents in a mail survey in Allegheny County, PA (N = 119) and in a national survey conducted with MTurk (N = 1,013) judged the two to be identical (in decades), considerably overestimating the residence time of air pollution and drastically underestimating that of carbon dioxide. Moreover, while many respondents believed that action is needed today to avoid climate change (regardless of cause), roughly a quarter held the view that if climate change is real and serious, we will be able to stop it in the future when it happens, just as we did with common air pollution...
June 30, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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