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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29783277/how-safe-is-safe-enough-for-self-driving-vehicles
#1
Peng Liu, Run Yang, Zhigang Xu
Self-driving vehicles (SDVs) promise to considerably reduce traffic crashes. One pressing concern facing the public, automakers, and governments is "How safe is safe enough for SDVs?" To answer this question, a new expressed-preference approach was proposed for the first time to determine the socially acceptable risk of SDVs. In our between-subject survey (N = 499), we determined the respondents' risk-acceptance rate of scenarios with varying traffic-risk frequencies to examine the logarithmic relationships between the traffic-risk frequency and risk-acceptance rate...
May 21, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29772062/a-three-part-bayesian-network-for-modeling-dwelling-fires-and-their-impact-upon-people-and-property
#2
D B Matellini, A D Wall, I D Jenkinson, J Wang, R Pritchard
In the United Kingdom, dwelling fires are responsible for the majority of all fire-related fatalities. The development of these incidents involves the interaction of a multitude of variables that combine in many different ways. Consequently, assessment of dwelling fire risk can be complex, which often results in ambiguity during fire safety planning and decision making. In this article, a three-part Bayesian network model is proposed to study dwelling fires from ignition through to extinguishment in order to improve confidence in dwelling fire safety assessment...
May 17, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29768668/assessing-the-effects-of-information-about-global-population-growth-on-risk-perceptions-and-support-for-mitigation-and-prevention-strategies
#3
Ian G J Dawson
The human population is forecast to increase by 3-4 billion people during this century and many scientists have expressed concerns that this could increase the likelihood of certain adverse events (e.g., climate change and resource shortages). Recent research shows that these concerns are mirrored in public risk perceptions and that these perceptions correlate with a willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support actions to limit growth)...
May 16, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29768666/predicting-cancer-prevention-behavior-disentangling-the-effects-of-risk-aversion-and-risk-perceptions
#4
Mary Riddel, David Hales
Experimental and survey research spanning the last two decades concludes that people who are more risk tolerant are more likely to engage in risky health activities such as smoking and heavy alcohol consumption, and are more likely to be obese. Subjective perceptions of the risk associated with different activities have also been found to be associated with health behaviors. While there are numerous studies that link risk perceptions with risky behavior, it is notable that none of these controls for risk aversion...
May 16, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29750842/mercury-polychlorinated-biphenyls-selenium-and-fatty-acids-in-tribal-fish-harvests-of-the-upper-great-lakes
#5
Matthew J Dellinger, Jared T Olson, Bruce J Holub, Michael P Ripley
The Chippewa Ottawa Resource Authority monitors fish contaminants in Anishinaabe (Great Lake Native American) tribal fisheries. This article updates previously reported trends in two persistent bioaccumulative toxic (PBT) substances that are the primary contributors to consumption advisory limits for these fish: methylmercury (MeHg) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Also, we report, for the first time, an analysis of nutritional benefit bioindicators and metrics in these same Upper Great Lakes fish harvests: selenium (Se) and omega-3 fatty acids (PUFA-3s)...
May 11, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29750840/advances-on-a-decision-analytic-approach-to-exposure-based-chemical-prioritization
#6
Matthew D Wood, Kenton Plourde, Sabrina Larkin, Peter P Egeghy, Antony J Williams, Valerie Zemba, Igor Linkov, Daniel A Vallero
The volume and variety of manufactured chemicals is increasing, although little is known about the risks associated with the frequency and extent of human exposure to most chemicals. The EPA and the recent signing of the Lautenberg Act have both signaled the need for high-throughput methods to characterize and screen chemicals based on exposure potential, such that more comprehensive toxicity research can be informed. Prior work of Mitchell et al. using multicriteria decision analysis tools to prioritize chemicals for further research is enhanced here, resulting in a high-level chemical prioritization tool for risk-based screening...
May 11, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29750824/comparing-the-economic-impact-of-natural-disasters-generated-by-different-input-output-models-an-application-to-the-2007-chehalis-river-flood-wa
#7
Andre F T Avelino, Sandy Dall'erba
Due to the concentration of assets in disaster-prone zones, changes in risk landscape and in the intensity of natural events, property losses have increased considerably in recent decades. While measuring these stock damages is common practice in the literature, the assessment of economic ripple effects due to business interruption is still limited and available estimates tend to vary significantly across models. This article focuses on the most popular single-region input-output models for disaster impact evaluation...
May 11, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29738625/differences-between-florida-and-the-rest-of-the-united-states-in-response-to-local-transmission-of-the-zika-virus-implications-for-future-communication-campaigns
#8
Kenneth M Winneg, Jo Ellen Stryker, Daniel Romer, Kathleen Hall Jamieson
For those at risk for Zika virus infection, prevention requires an approach that includes individual, interpersonal, and community-level support for behavior change. In August 2016, the announcement of local Zika transmission in Florida provided an opportunity to determine whether Zika-related knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors might be affected differentially in Florida compared to the rest of the nation. From August 8-October 3, 2016, we conducted nationally representative weekly surveys (N = 12,236), oversampling Florida residents, measuring Zika virus news exposure, knowledge about transmission and prevention of the infection, and attitudes and behaviors toward prevention...
May 8, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29723427/a-robust-approach-to-risk-assessment-based-on-species-sensitivity-distributions
#9
Gianna S Monti, Peter Filzmoser, Roland C Deutsch
The guidelines for setting environmental quality standards are increasingly based on probabilistic risk assessment due to a growing general awareness of the need for probabilistic procedures. One of the commonly used tools in probabilistic risk assessment is the species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which represents the proportion of species affected belonging to a biological assemblage as a function of exposure to a specific toxicant. Our focus is on the inverse use of the SSD curve with the aim of estimating the concentration, HCp, of a toxic compound that is hazardous to p% of the biological community under study...
May 3, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29698553/anticipating-or-accommodating-to-public-concern-risk-amplification-and-the-politics-of-precaution-reexamined
#10
Jamie K Wardman, Ragnar Löfstedt
Regulatory use of the precautionary principle (PP) tends to be broadly characterized either as a responsible approach for safeguarding against health and environmental risks in the face of scientific uncertainties, or as "state mismanagement" driven by undue political bias and public anxiety. However, the "anticipatory" basis upon which governments variably draw a political warrant for adopting precautionary measures often remains ambiguous. Particularly, questions arise concerning whether the PP is employed preemptively by political elites from the "top down," or follows from more conventional democratic pressures exerted by citizens and other stakeholders from the "bottom up...
April 26, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29694686/assessing-transboundary-wildfire-exposure-in-the-southwestern-united-states
#11
Alan A Ager, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Cody R Evers, Michelle A Day, Ana M G Barros
We assessed transboundary wildfire exposure among federal, state, and private lands and 447 communities in the state of Arizona, southwestern United States. The study quantified the relative magnitude of transboundary (incoming, outgoing) versus nontransboundary (i.e., self-burning) wildfire exposure based on land tenure or community of the simulated ignition and the resulting fire perimeter. We developed and described several new metrics to quantify and map transboundary exposure. We found that incoming transboundary fire accounted for 37% of the total area burned on large parcels of federal and state lands, whereas 63% of the area burned was burned by ignitions within the parcel...
April 25, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29694683/an-integrated-scenario-ensemble-based-framework-for-hurricane-evacuation-modeling-part-2-hazard-modeling
#12
Brian Blanton, Kendra Dresback, Brian Colle, Randy Kolar, Humberto Vergara, Yang Hong, Nicholas Leonardo, Rachel Davidson, Linda Nozick, Tricia Wachtendorf
Hurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision-making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics-based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method...
April 25, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29694682/human-dose-response-data-for-francisella-tularensis-and-a-dose-and-time-dependent-mathematical-model-of-early-phase-fever-associated-with-tularemia-after-inhalation-exposure
#13
Gene McClellan, Margaret Coleman, David Crary, Alec Thurman, Brandolyn Thran
Military health risk assessors, medical planners, operational planners, and defense system developers require knowledge of human responses to doses of biothreat agents to support force health protection and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear (CBRN) defense missions. This article reviews extensive data from 118 human volunteers administered aerosols of the bacterial agent Francisella tularensis, strain Schu S4, which causes tularemia. The data set includes incidence of early-phase febrile illness following administration of well-characterized inhaled doses of F...
April 25, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29694678/expanding-the-political-philosophy-dimension-of-the-risp-model-examining-the-conditional-indirect-effects-of-cultural-cognition
#14
Jay D Hmielowski, Meredith Y Wang, Rebecca R Donaway
This article attempts to connect literatures from the Risk Information Seeking and Processing (RISP) model and cultural cognition theory. We do this by assessing the relationship between the two prominent cultural cognition variables (i.e., group and grid) and risk perceptions. We then examine whether these risk perceptions are associated with three outcomes important to the RISP model: information seeking, systematic processing, and heuristic processing, through a serial mediation model. We used 2015 data collected from 10 communities across the United States to test our hypotheses...
April 25, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29694670/tiered-approach-to-resilience-assessment
#15
Igor Linkov, Cate Fox-Lent, Laura Read, Craig R Allen, James C Arnott, Emanuele Bellini, Jon Coaffee, Marie-Valentine Florin, Kirk Hatfield, Iain Hyde, William Hynes, Aleksandar Jovanovic, Roger Kasperson, John Katzenberger, Patrick W Keys, James H Lambert, Richard Moss, Peter S Murdoch, Jose Palma-Oliveira, Roger S Pulwarty, Dale Sands, Edward A Thomas, Mari R Tye, David Woods
Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience...
April 25, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29665625/the-value-of-performance-weights-and-discussion-in-aggregated-expert-judgments
#16
Anca M Hanea, Marissa F McBride, Mark A Burgman, Bonnie C Wintle
In risky situations characterized by imminent decisions, scarce resources, and insufficient data, policymakers rely on experts to estimate model parameters and their associated uncertainties. Different elicitation and aggregation methods can vary substantially in their efficacy and robustness. While it is generally agreed that biases in expert judgments can be mitigated using structured elicitations involving groups rather than individuals, there is still some disagreement about how to best elicit and aggregate judgments...
April 17, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29665622/existing-regulatory-approaches-to-reducing-exposures-to-chemical-and-product-based-risk-and-their-applicability-to-diet-related-chronic-disease
#17
Deborah A Cohen, Debra S Knopman
We aimed to identify and categorize the types of policies that have been adopted to protect Americans from harmful exposures that could also be relevant for addressing diet-related chronic diseases. This article examines and categorizes the rationales behind government regulation. Our interest in the historical analysis is to inform judgments about how best to address newly emergent risks involving diet-related chronic disease within existing regulatory and information-based frameworks. We assessed exemplars of regulation with respect to harmful exposures from air, water, and food, as well as regulations that are intended to modify voluntary behaviors...
April 17, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29660157/two-types-of-vigilance-are-essential-to-effective-hazard-management-maintaining-both-together-is-difficult
#18
Robert Goble, Vicki Bier, Ortwin Renn
Flexibility and adaptability are key capabilities for coping with persistent and pervasive uncertainties. The systematic organization of these capabilities is often called "adaptive management"; it is key to effective hazard management and important in risk governance. Vigilance is a requirement for effective adaptation. However, two distinct types of vigilance are necessary. Type 1 vigilance directly supports adaptive management. It is vigilance when you know what you are looking for: warning signals, filling gaps in knowledge, making sure that systems are working, etc...
April 16, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29649352/interstitial-lung-diseases-in-the-u-s-mining-industry-using-msha-data-to-examine-trends-and-the-prevention-effects-of-compliance-with-health-regulations-1996-2015
#19
Patrick L Yorio, A Scott Laney, Cara N Halldin, David J Blackley, Susan M Moore, Kerri Wizner, Lewis J Radonovich, Lee A Greenawald
Given the recent increase in dust-induced lung disease among U.S. coal miners and the respiratory hazards encountered across the U.S. mining industry, it is important to enhance an understanding of lung disease trends and the organizational contexts that precede these events. In addition to exploring overall trends reported to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), the current study uses MSHA's enforcement database to examine whether or not compliance with health regulations resulted in fewer mine-level counts of these diseases over time...
April 12, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29637591/threshold-evaluation-of-emergency-risk-communication-for-health-risks-related-to-hazardous-ambient-temperature
#20
Yang Liu, Brenda O Hoppe, Matteo Convertino
Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area...
April 10, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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