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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28884836/a-probabilistic-approach-to-assess-external-doses-to-the-public-considering-spatial-variability-of-radioactive-contamination-and-interpopulation-differences-in-behavior-pattern
#1
Shogo Takahara, Masashi Iijima, Minoru Yoneda, Yoko Shimada
Dose assessment is an important issue from the viewpoints of protecting people from radiation exposure and managing postaccident situations adequately. However, the radiation doses received by people cannot be determined with complete accuracy because of the uncertainties and the variability associated with any process of defining individual characteristics and in the dose assessment process itself. In this study, a dose assessment model was developed based on measurements and surveys of individual doses and relevant contributors (i...
September 8, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28881489/behavioral-modeling-of-adversaries-with-multiple-objectives-in-counterterrorism
#2
Dogucan Mazicioglu, Jason R W Merrick
Attacker/defender models have primarily assumed that each decisionmaker optimizes the cost of the damage inflicted and its economic repercussions from their own perspective. Two streams of recent research have sought to extend such models. One stream suggests that it is more realistic to consider attackers with multiple objectives, but this research has not included the adaption of the terrorist with multiple objectives to defender actions. The other stream builds off experimental studies that show that decisionmakers deviate from optimal rational behavior...
September 7, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28881474/assessment-of-instructions-on-protection-against-food-contaminated-with-radiocesium-in-japan-in-2011
#3
Mayumi Seto, Koichiro Uriu, Isao Kawaguchi, Hiroyuki Yokomizo
The Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) has published instructions for radiological protection against food after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011. Following the instructions, the export and consumption of food items identified as being contaminated were restricted for a certain period. We assessed the validity of the imposed restriction periods for two representative vegetables (spinach and cabbage) grown in Fukushima Prefecture from two perspectives: effectiveness for reducing dietary dose and economic efficiency...
September 7, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28881443/preference-functions-for-spatial-risk-analysis
#4
L Robin Keller, Jay Simon
When outcomes are defined over a geographic region, measures of spatial risk regarding these outcomes can be more complex than traditional measures of risk. One of the main challenges is the need for a cardinal preference function that incorporates the spatial nature of the outcomes. We explore preference conditions that will yield the existence of spatial measurable value and utility functions, and discuss their application to spatial risk analysis. We also present a simple example on household freshwater usage across regions to demonstrate how such functions can be assessed and applied...
September 7, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28881409/an-emerging-new-risk-analysis-science-foundations-and-implications
#5
Terje Aven
To solve real-life problems-such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change-and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community...
September 7, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28873257/deep-uncertainties-in-sea-level-rise-and-storm-surge-projections-implications-for-coastal-flood-risk-management
#6
Perry C Oddo, Ben S Lee, Gregory G Garner, Vivek Srikrishnan, Patrick M Reed, Chris E Forest, Klaus Keller
Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives...
September 5, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28873246/multicriteria-decision-framework-for-cybersecurity-risk-assessment-and-management
#7
Alexander A Ganin, Phuoc Quach, Mahesh Panwar, Zachary A Collier, Jeffrey M Keisler, Dayton Marchese, Igor Linkov
Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity...
September 5, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28873245/scenario-analysis-for-the-safety-assessment-of-nuclear-waste-repositories-a-critical-review
#8
Edoardo Tosoni, Ahti Salo, Enrico Zio
A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties...
September 5, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28863229/ambient-asbestos-fiber-concentrations-and-long-term-trends-in-pleural-mesothelioma-incidence-between-urban-and-rural-areas-in-the-united-states-1973-2012
#9
Meghan E Glynn, Kara A Keeton, Shannon H Gaffney, Jennifer Sahmel
Over the past 40 years, measured ambient asbestos concentrations in the United States have been higher in urban versus rural areas. The purpose of this study was to determine whether variations in ambient asbestos concentrations have influenced pleural mesothelioma risk in females (who generally lacked historic occupational asbestos exposure relative to males). Male pleural mesothelioma incidence trends were analyzed to provide perspective for female trends. Annual age-adjusted incidence rates from 1973 to 2012 were obtained from the SEER 9, 13, and 18 databases for urban and rural locations, and standardized rate ratios were calculated...
September 1, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28853176/optimal-mission-abort-policy-for-systems-operating-in-a-random-environment
#10
Gregory Levitin, Maxim Finkelstein
Many real-world critical systems, e.g., aircrafts, manned space flight systems, and submarines, utilize mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a rescue or recovery procedure is then initiated. For systems exposed to external impacts, the malfunctions are often caused by the consequences of these impacts. Traditional system reliability models typically cannot address a possibility of mission aborts. Therefore, in this article, we first develop the corresponding methodology for modeling and evaluation of the mission success probability and survivability of systems experiencing both internal failures and external shocks...
August 29, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28853163/effects-of-acknowledging-uncertainty-about-earthquake-risk-estimates-on-san-francisco-bay-area-residents-beliefs-attitudes-and-intentions
#11
Kazuya Nakayachi, Branden B Johnson, Kazuki Koketsu
We test here the risk communication proposition that explicit expert acknowledgment of uncertainty in risk estimates can enhance trust and other reactions. We manipulated such a scientific uncertainty message, accompanied by probabilities (20%, 70%, implicit ["will occur"] 100%) and time periods (10 or 30 years) in major (≥magnitude 8) earthquake risk estimates to test potential effects on residents potentially affected by seismic activity on the San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (n = 750). The uncertainty acknowledgment increased belief that these specific experts were more honest and open, and led to statistically (but not substantively) significant increases in trust in seismic experts generally only for the 20% probability (vs...
August 29, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28846812/optimal-inspection-of-imports-to-prevent-invasive-pest-introduction
#12
Cuicui Chen, Rebecca S Epanchin-Niell, Robert G Haight
The United States imports more than 1 billion live plants annually-an important and growing pathway for introduction of damaging nonnative invertebrates and pathogens. Inspection of imports is one safeguard for reducing pest introductions, but capacity constraints limit inspection effort. We develop an optimal sampling strategy to minimize the costs of pest introductions from trade by posing inspection as an acceptance sampling problem that incorporates key features of the decision context, including (i) simultaneous inspection of many heterogeneous lots, (ii) a lot-specific sampling effort, (iii) a budget constraint that limits total inspection effort, (iv) inspection error, and (v) an objective of minimizing cost from accepted defective units...
August 28, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28846810/impact-of-cooking-procedures-and-storage-practices-at-home-on-consumer-exposure-to-listeria-monocytogenes-and-salmonella-due-to-the-consumption-of-pork-meat
#13
Alessandra De Cesare, Eva Doménech, Damiano Comin, Adele Meluzzi, Gerardo Manfreda
The objective of this research was to analyze the impact of different cooking procedures (i.e., gas hob and traditional static oven) and levels of cooking (i.e., rare, medium, and well-done) on inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella in pork loin chops. Moreover, the consumer's exposure to both microorganisms after simulation of meat leftover storage at home was assessed. The results showed that well-done cooking in a static oven was the only treatment able to inactivate the tested pathogens. The other cooking combinations allowed to reach in the product temperatures always ≥73...
August 28, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28833319/informing-ex-ante-event-studies-with-macro-econometric-evidence-on-the-structural-and-policy-impacts-of-terrorism
#14
Jason Nassios, James A Giesecke
Economic consequence analysis is one of many inputs to terrorism contingency planning. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are being used more frequently in these analyses, in part because of their capacity to accommodate high levels of event-specific detail. In modeling the potential economic effects of a hypothetical terrorist event, two broad sets of shocks are required: (1) physical impacts on observable variables (e.g., asset damage); (2) behavioral impacts on unobservable variables (e.g., investor uncertainty)...
August 17, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28833288/insurance-public-assistance-and-household-flood-risk-reduction-a-comparative-study-of-austria-england-and-romania
#15
Susanne Hanger, Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer, Swenja Surminski, Cristina Nenciu-Posner, Anna Lorant, Radu Ionescu, Anthony Patt
In light of increasing losses from floods, many researchers and policymakers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study, we investigate risk-reduction behavior at the household level in three European Union Member States with fundamentally different insurance and compensation schemes. We try to understand if and how insurance and public assistance influence private risk-reduction behavior. Data were collected using a telephone survey (n = 1,849) of household decisionmakers in flood-prone areas...
August 17, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28810081/a-risk-analysis-approach-to-prioritizing-epidemics-ebola-virus-disease-in-west-africa-as-a-case-study
#16
Whenayon Simeon Ajisegiri, Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, C Raina MacIntyre
The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria was developed...
August 15, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28799660/when-does-poor-governance-presage-biosecurity-risk
#17
Stephen E Lane, Anthony D Arthur, Christina Aston, Sam Zhao, Andrew P Robinson
Border inspection, and the challenge of deciding which of the tens of millions of consignments that arrive should be inspected, is a perennial problem for regulatory authorities. The objective of these inspections is to minimize the risk of contraband entering the country. As an example, for regulatory authorities in charge of biosecurity material, consignments of goods are classified before arrival according to their economic tariff number. This classification, perhaps along with other information, is used as a screening step to determine whether further biosecurity intervention, such as inspection, is necessary...
August 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28799659/perspectives-on-cybersecurity-information-sharing-among-multiple-stakeholders-using-a-decision-theoretic-approach
#18
Meilin He, Laura Devine, Jun Zhuang
The government, private sectors, and others users of the Internet are increasingly faced with the risk of cyber incidents. Damage to computer systems and theft of sensitive data caused by cyber attacks have the potential to result in lasting harm to entities under attack, or to society as a whole. The effects of cyber attacks are not always obvious, and detecting them is not a simple proposition. As the U.S. federal government believes that information sharing on cybersecurity issues among organizations is essential to safety, security, and resilience, the importance of trusted information exchange has been emphasized to support public and private decision making by encouraging the creation of the Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAC)...
August 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28799658/dynamic-blowout-risk-analysis-using-loss-functions
#19
Majeed Abimbola, Faisal Khan
Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions...
August 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28799655/communicating-earthquake-preparedness-the-influence-of-induced-mood-perceived-risk-and-gain-or-loss-frames-on-homeowners-attitudes-toward-general-precautionary-measures-for-earthquakes
#20
Michèle Marti, Michael Stauffacher, Jörg Matthes, Stefan Wiemer
Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, actual preparedness levels remain universally low. Although earthquake-resistant building design is the most efficient way to decrease potential losses, its application is not a legal requirement across all earthquake-prone countries and even if, often not strictly enforced. Risk communication encouraging homeowners to take precautionary measures is therefore an important means to enhance a country's earthquake resilience. Our study illustrates that specific interactions of mood, perceived risk, and frame type significantly affect homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes...
August 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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