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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28084634/building-a-values-informed-mental-model-for-new-orleans-climate-risk-management
#1
Douglas L Bessette, Lauren A Mayer, Bryan Cwik, Martin Vezér, Klaus Keller, Robert J Lempert, Nancy Tuana
Individuals use values to frame their beliefs and simplify their understanding when confronted with complex and uncertain situations. The high complexity and deep uncertainty involved in climate risk management (CRM) lead to individuals' values likely being coupled to and contributing to their understanding of specific climate risk factors and management strategies. Most mental model approaches, however, which are commonly used to inform our understanding of people's beliefs, ignore values. In response, we developed a "Values-informed Mental Model" research approach, or ViMM, to elicit individuals' values alongside their beliefs and determine which values people use to understand and assess specific climate risk factors and CRM strategies...
January 13, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28076659/an-empirical-agent-based-model-to-simulate-the-adoption-of-water-reuse-using-the-social-amplification-of-risk-framework
#2
Venu Kandiah, Andrew R Binder, Emily Z Berglund
Water reuse can serve as a sustainable alternative water source for urban areas. However, the successful implementation of large-scale water reuse projects depends on community acceptance. Because of the negative perceptions that are traditionally associated with reclaimed water, water reuse is often not considered in the development of urban water management plans. This study develops a simulation model for understanding community opinion dynamics surrounding the issue of water reuse, and how individual perceptions evolve within that context, which can help in the planning and decision-making process...
January 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28076652/estimation-of-benchmark-dose-of-lifetime-cadmium-intake-for-adverse-renal-effects-using-hybrid-approach-in-inhabitants-of-an-environmentally-exposed-river-basin-in-japan
#3
Keiko Kubo, Kazuhiro Nogawa, Teruhiko Kido, Muneko Nishijo, Hideaki Nakagawa, Yasushi Suwazono
The aim of this study is to estimate the reference level of lifetime cadmium intake (LCd) as the benchmark doses (BMDs) and their 95% lower confidence limits (BMDLs) for various renal effects by applying a hybrid approach. The participants comprised 3,013 (1,362 men and 1,651 women) and 278 (129 men and 149 women) inhabitants of the Cd-polluted and nonpolluted areas, respectively, in the environmentally exposed Kakehashi River basin. Glucose, protein, aminonitrogen, metallothionein, and β2 -microglobulin in urine were measured as indicators of renal dysfunction...
January 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28068456/an-evidential-reasoning-based-cream-to-human-reliability-analysis-in-maritime-accident-process
#4
Bing Wu, Xinping Yan, Yang Wang, C Guedes Soares
This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process...
January 9, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28032899/bayesian-hierarchical-structure-for-quantifying-population-variability-to-inform-probabilistic-health-risk-assessments
#5
Kan Shao, Bruce C Allen, Matthew W Wheeler
Human variability is a very important factor considered in human health risk assessment for protecting sensitive populations from chemical exposure. Traditionally, to account for this variability, an interhuman uncertainty factor is applied to lower the exposure limit. However, using a fixed uncertainty factor rather than probabilistically accounting for human variability can hardly support probabilistic risk assessment advocated by a number of researchers; new methods are needed to probabilistically quantify human population variability...
December 29, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28032665/a-blueprint-for-full-collective-flood-risk-estimation-demonstration-for-european-river-flooding
#6
Francesco Serinaldi, Chris G Kilsby
Floods are a natural hazard evolving in space and time according to meteorological and river basin dynamics, so that a single flood event can affect different regions over the event duration. This physical mechanism introduces spatio-temporal relationships between flood records and losses at different locations over a given time window that should be taken into account for an effective assessment of the collective flood risk. However, since extreme floods are rare events, the limited number of historical records usually prevents a reliable frequency analysis...
December 29, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28032659/dependency-of-crop-production-between-global-breadbaskets-a-copula-approach-for-the-assessment-of-global-and-regional-risk-pools
#7
Franziska Gaupp, Georg Pflug, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Jim Hall, Simon Dadson
As recent events have shown, simultaneous crop losses in different parts of the world can cause serious risks to global food security. However, to date, little is known about the spatial dependency of lower than expected crop yields from global breadbaskets. This especially applies in the case of extreme events, i.e., where one or more breadbaskets are experiencing far below average yields. Without such information, risk management approaches cannot be applied and vulnerability to extremes may remain high or even increase in the future around the world...
December 29, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28032648/the-use-of-simulation-to-reduce-the-domain-of-black-swans-with-application-to-hurricane-impacts-to-power-systems
#8
Christine L Berner, Andrea Staid, Roger Flage, Seth D Guikema
Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans...
December 29, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28009053/the-role-of-behavioral-responses-in-the-total-economic-consequences-of-terrorist-attacks-on-u-s-air-travel-targets
#9
Adam Rose, Misak Avetisyan, Heather Rosoff, William J Burns, Paul Slovic, Oswin Chan
U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high-value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk-perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U...
December 23, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28000928/evacuation-from-natural-disasters-a-systematic-review-of-the-literature
#10
Rebecca R Thompson, Dana Rose Garfin, Roxane Cohen Silver
Research on evacuation from natural disasters has been published across the peer-reviewed literature among several disparate disciplinary outlets and has suggested a wide variety of predictors of evacuation behavior. We conducted a systematic review to summarize and evaluate the current literature on demographic, storm-related, and psychosocial correlates of natural disaster evacuation behavior. Eighty-three eligible papers utilizing 83 independent samples were identified. Risk perception was a consistent positive predictor of evacuation, as were several demographic indicators, prior evacuation behavior, and having an evacuation plan...
December 21, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27996166/a-stochastic-model-to-assess-the-effect-of-meat-inspection-practices-on-the-contamination-of-the-pig-carcasses
#11
Eduardo de Freitas Costa, Luis Gustavo Corbellini, Ana Paula Serafini Poeta da Silva, Maarten Nauta
The objective of meat inspection is to promote animal and public health by preventing, detecting, and controlling hazards originating from animals. With the improvements of sanitary level in pig herds, the hazards profile has shifted and the inspection procedures no longer target major foodborne pathogens (i.e., not risk based). Additionally, carcass manipulations performed when searching for macroscopic lesions can lead to cross-contamination. We therefore developed a stochastic model to quantitatively describe cross-contamination when consecutive carcasses are submitted to classic inspection procedures...
December 20, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27996160/response-to-comment-on-cryptosporidium-infection-risk-results-of-new-dose-response-modeling-discussion-of-underlying-assumption-and-their-implications
#12
Michael J Messner, Philip Berger
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
December 20, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27996155/the-origin-and-role-of-trust-in-local-policy-elites-perceptions-of-high-voltage-power-line-installations-in-the-state-of-arkansas
#13
Creed Tumlison, Rachael M Moyer, Geoboo Song
The debate over an installation of high-voltage power lines (HVPLs) has been intense, particularly in northwest Arkansas. Detractors claim that the installation will negatively affect both the natural environment and the local economy, which contains a large tourism component. By contrast, those in favor of installing HVPLs claim that the installation is necessary in order to reliably support the increasing demand for electric power. Using original data collected from a recent statewide Internet survey of 420 local policy elites in Arkansas, this article focuses on two key aspects...
December 20, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27996154/assessing-climate-change-impacts-on-wildfire-exposure-in-mediterranean-areas
#14
Olga M Lozano, Michele Salis, Alan A Ager, Bachisio Arca, Fermin J Alcasena, Antonio T Monteiro, Mark A Finney, Liliana Del Giudice, Enrico Scoccimarro, Donatella Spano
We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area...
December 20, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27959476/bogen-s-critique-of-linear-no-threshold-default-assumptions
#15
Kenny S Crump
In an article recently published in this journal, Bogen((1)) concluded that an NRC committee's recommendations that default linear, nonthreshold (LNT) assumptions be applied to dose- response assessment for noncarcinogens and nonlinear mode of action carcinogens are not justified. Bogen criticized two arguments used by the committee for LNT: when any new dose adds to a background dose that explains background levels of risk (additivity to background or AB), or when there is substantial interindividual heterogeneity in susceptibility (SIH) in the exposed human population...
December 13, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27935146/resilience-of-cyber-systems-with-over-and-underregulation
#16
Viktoria Gisladottir, Alexander A Ganin, Jeffrey M Keisler, Jeremy Kepner, Igor Linkov
Recent cyber attacks provide evidence of increased threats to our critical systems and infrastructure. A common reaction to a new threat is to harden the system by adding new rules and regulations. As federal and state governments request new procedures to follow, each of their organizations implements their own cyber defense strategies. This unintentionally increases time and effort that employees spend on training and policy implementation and decreases the time and latitude to perform critical job functions, thus raising overall levels of stress...
December 9, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27935094/cascading-delay-risk-of-airline-workforce-deployments-with-crew-pairing-and-schedule-optimization
#17
Sai Ho Chung, Hoi Lam Ma, Hing Kai Chan
This article concerns the assignment of buffer time between two connected flights and the number of reserve crews in crew pairing to mitigate flight disruption due to flight arrival delay. Insufficient crew members for a flight will lead to flight disruptions such as delays or cancellations. In reality, most of these disruption cases are due to arrival delays of the previous flights. To tackle this problem, many research studies have examined the assignment method based on the historical flight arrival delay data of the concerned flights...
December 9, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27893165/enabling-stakeholder-involvement-in-coastal-disaster-resilience-planning
#18
Thomas P Bostick, Thomas H Holzer, Shahryar Sarkani
Coastal hazards including storm surge, sea-level rise, and cyclone winds continue to have devastating effects on infrastructure systems and communities despite costly investments in risk management. Risk management has generally not been sufficiently focused on coastal resilience, with community stakeholders involved in the process of making their coastline, as a system, more resilient to coastal storms. Thus, without stakeholder earlier involvement in coastal resilience planning for their community, they are frustrated after disasters occur...
November 28, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27893160/integrating-household-risk-mitigation-behavior-in-flood-risk-analysis-an-agent-based-model-approach
#19
Toon Haer, W J Wouter Botzen, Hans de Moel, Jeroen C J H Aerts
Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating...
November 28, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27866376/reduction-in-dietary-acrylamide-exposure-impact-of-potatoes-with-low-acrylamide-potential
#20
Nga L Tran, Leila M Barraj, Susan Collinge
Acrylamide forms primarily from a reaction between reducing sugars (e.g., glucose and fructose) and an amino acid (asparagine, Asn) formed naturally in foods, including potatoes. This reaction occurs when carbohydrate-rich foods are heated at temperatures above 120 °C. Multiple potato varieties were transformed with potato genomic DNA that results in down-regulation of the expression of the asparagine synthetase-1 gene (Asn1), significantly reducing synthesis of free Asn, and consequently lowering the potential to form acrylamide during cooking...
November 20, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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