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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28697286/annual-burden-of-occupationally-acquired-influenza-infections-in-hospitals-and-emergency-departments-in-the-united-states
#1
Rachael M Jones, Yulin Xia
Infections among health-care personnel (HCP) occur as a result of providing care to patients with infectious diseases, but surveillance is limited to a few diseases. The objective of this study is to determine the annual number of influenza infections acquired by HCP as a result of occupational exposures to influenza patients in hospitals and emergency departments (EDs) in the United States. A risk analysis approach was taken. A compartmental model was used to estimate the influenza dose received in a single exposure, and a dose-response function applied to calculate the probability of infection...
July 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28697285/an-expert-elicitation-of-the-proliferation-resistance-of-using-small-modular-reactors-smr-for-the-expansion-of-civilian-nuclear-systems
#2
Jonas Siegel, Elisabeth A Gilmore, Nancy Gallagher, Steve Fetter
To facilitate the use of nuclear energy globally, small modular reactors (SMRs) may represent a viable alternative or complement to large reactor designs. One potential benefit is that SMRs could allow for more proliferation resistant designs, manufacturing arrangements, and fuel-cycle practices at widespread deployment. However, there is limited work evaluating the proliferation resistance of SMRs, and existing proliferation assessment approaches are not well suited for these novel arrangements. Here, we conduct an expert elicitation of the relative proliferation resistance of scenarios for future nuclear energy deployment driven by Generation III+ light-water reactors, fast reactors, or SMRs...
July 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28697284/community-driven-hypothesis-testing-a-solution-for-the-tragedy-of-the-anticommons
#3
José Manuel Palma-Oliveira, Benjamin D Trump, Matthew D Wood, Igor Linkov
Shared ownership of property and resources is a longstanding challenge throughout history that has been amplifying with the increasing development of industrial and postindustrial societies. Where governments, project planners, and commercial developers seek to develop new infrastructure, industrial projects, and various other land-and resource-intensive tasks, veto power shared by various local stakeholders can complicate or halt progress. Risk communication has been used as an attempt to address stakeholder concerns in these contexts, but has demonstrated shortcomings...
July 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28697277/who-would-be-willing-to-accept-disaster-debris-in-their-backyard-investigating-the-determinants-of-public-attitudes-in-post-fukushima-japan
#4
Naomi Aoki
In the wake of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, the Ministry of Environment in Japan asked municipalities nationwide to accept and treat disaster waste. This call for cross-jurisdictional waste treatment provoked considerable public controversy. To explore how the national and municipal governments can seek more public acceptance in the wake of future disasters, this study implemented a nationwide survey and addressed the question of what factors influence the public's willingness to support their municipalities' plans to host disaster waste...
July 11, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28679022/cyber-risk-management-for-critical-infrastructure-a-risk-analysis-model-and-three-case-studies
#5
M-Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Marshall Kuypers, Matthew Smith, Philip Keller
Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks...
July 5, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28675517/wildfire-policy-in-mediterranean-france-how-far-is-it-efficient-and-sustainable
#6
Thomas Curt, Thibaut Frejaville
A new fire policy reinforcing aggressive fire suppression was established in Mediterranean France in response to the devastating wildfires of the 1990s, but to what extent this has changed fire activity yet remains poorly understood. For this purpose, we compared the number and location of ignitions and of burned areas between two 20-year periods (1975-1994 vs. 1995-2014), in parallel to the changes in fuel covering, human activity promoting ignitions, and fire weather. The number of fires decreased almost continuously since 1975, but sharply after 1994, suggesting an effect of better fire prevention due to the new policy...
July 4, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28675477/risk-prioritization-in-the-food-domain-using-deliberative-and-survey-methods-differences-between-experts-and-laypeople
#7
Michael Siegrist, Philipp Hübner, Christina Hartmann
This study examined how experts and laypeople using both a deliberative and a survey method prioritized 28 hazards related to food and everyday items. To enable them to make deliberative decisions, participants received detailed descriptions of the hazards. The participants prioritized the hazards before and after a group discussion, in which the group's average prioritization was discussed. The rankings of the hazards before and after the group discussion were highly correlated. However, laypeople and experts differed significantly in their rankings for 18 of the 28 hazards...
July 4, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28666078/public-perceptions-of-how-long-air-pollution-and-carbon-dioxide-remain-in-the-atmosphere
#8
Rachel Dryden, M Granger Morgan, Ann Bostrom, Wändi Bruine de Bruin
The atmospheric residence time of carbon dioxide is hundreds of years, many orders of magnitude longer than that of common air pollution, which is typically hours to a few days. However, randomly selected respondents in a mail survey in Allegheny County, PA (N = 119) and in a national survey conducted with MTurk (N = 1,013) judged the two to be identical (in decades), considerably overestimating the residence time of air pollution and drastically underestimating that of carbon dioxide. Moreover, while many respondents believed that action is needed today to avoid climate change (regardless of cause), roughly a quarter held the view that if climate change is real and serious, we will be able to stop it in the future when it happens, just as we did with common air pollution...
June 30, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28666067/tornado-warning-perception-and-response-integrating-the-roles-of-visual-design-demographics-and-hazard-experience
#9
Ronald L Schumann, Kevin D Ash, Gregg C Bowser
Recent advancements in severe weather detection and warning dissemination technologies have reduced, but not eliminated, large-casualty tornado hazards in the United States. Research on warning cognition and behavioral response by the public has the potential to further reduce tornado-related deaths and injuries; however, less research has been conducted in this area compared to tornado research in the physical sciences. Extant research in this vein tends to bifurcate. One branch of studies derives from classic risk perception, which investigates cognitive, affective, and sociocultural factors in relation to concern and preparation for uncertain risks...
June 30, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28666064/evaluating-the-benefits-of-adaptation-of-critical-infrastructures-to-hydrometeorological-risks
#10
Scott Thacker, Scott Kelly, Raghav Pant, Jim W Hall
Infrastructure adaptation measures provide a practical way to reduce the risk from extreme hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods and windstorms. The benefit of adapting infrastructure assets is evaluated as the reduction in risk relative to the "do nothing" case. However, evaluating the full benefits of risk reduction is challenging because of the complexity of the systems, the scarcity of data, and the uncertainty of future climatic changes. We address this challenge by integrating methods from the study of climate adaptation, infrastructure systems, and complex networks...
June 30, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28661084/assessing-the-cost-of-large-scale-power-outages-to-residential-customers
#11
Sunhee Baik, Alexander L Davis, M Granger Morgan
Residents in developed economies depend heavily on electric services. While distributed resources and a variety of new smart technologies can increase the reliability of that service, adopting them involves costs, necessitating tradeoffs between cost and reliability. An important input to making such tradeoffs is an estimate of the value customers place on reliable electric services. We develop an elicitation framework that helps individuals think systematically about the value they attach to reliable electric service...
June 29, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28661058/providing-limited-local-electric-service-during-a-major-grid-outage-a-first-assessment-based-on-customer-willingness-to-pay
#12
Sunhee Baik, M Granger Morgan, Alexander L Davis
While they are rare, widespread blackouts of the bulk power system can result in large costs to individuals and society. If local distribution circuits remain intact, it is possible to use new technologies including smart meters, intelligent switches that can change the topology of distribution circuits, and distributed generation owned by customers and the power company, to provide limited local electric power service. Many utilities are already making investments that would make this possible. We use customers' measured willingness to pay to explore when the incremental investments needed to implement these capabilities would be justified...
June 29, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28656653/flood-risk-management-exploring-the-impacts-of-the-community-rating-system-program-on-poverty-and-income-inequality
#13
Douglas S Noonan, Abdul-Akeem A Sadiq
Flooding remains a major problem for the United States, causing numerous deaths and damaging countless properties. To reduce the impact of flooding on communities, the U.S. government established the Community Rating System (CRS) in 1990 to reduce flood damages by incentivizing communities to engage in flood risk management initiatives that surpass those required by the National Flood Insurance Program. In return, communities enjoy discounted flood insurance premiums. Despite the fact that the CRS raises concerns about the potential for unevenly distributed impacts across different income groups, no study has examined the equity implications of the CRS...
June 27, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28656634/satellite-data-and-machine-learning-for-weather-risk-management-and-food-security
#14
Enrico Biffis, Erik Chavez
The increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events poses challenges for the agricultural sector in developing economies and for food security globally. In this article, we demonstrate how machine learning can be used to mine satellite data and identify pixel-level optimal weather indices that can be used to inform the design of risk transfers and the quantification of the benefits of resilient production technology adoption. We implement the model to study maize production in Mozambique, and show how the approach can be used to produce countrywide risk profiles resulting from the aggregation of local, heterogeneous exposures to rainfall precipitation and excess temperature...
June 27, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28616889/risk-communication-emergency-response-preparedness-contextual-assessment-of-the-protective-action-decision-model
#15
Robert L Heath, Jaesub Lee, Michael J Palenchar, Laura L Lemon
Studies are continuously performed to improve risk communication campaign designs to better prepare residents to act in the safest manner during an emergency. To that end, this article investigates the predictive ability of the protective action decision model (PADM), which links environmental and social cues, predecision processes (attention, exposure, and comprehension), and risk decision perceptions (threat, alternative protective actions, and stakeholder norms) with protective action decision making. This current quasi-longitudinal study of residents (N = 400 for each year) in a high-risk (chemical release) petrochemical manufacturing community investigated whether PADM core risk perceptions predict protective action decision making...
June 14, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28616870/hazard-experience-geophysical-vulnerability-and-flood-risk-perceptions-in-a-postdisaster-city-the-case-of-new-orleans
#16
Kevin Fox Gotham, Richard Campanella, Katie Lauve-Moon, Bradford Powers
This article investigates the determinants of flood risk perceptions in New Orleans, Louisiana (United States), a deltaic coastal city highly vulnerable to seasonal nuisance flooding and hurricane-induced deluges and storm surges. Few studies have investigated the influence of hazard experience, geophysical vulnerability (hazard proximity), and risk perceptions in cities undergoing postdisaster recovery and rebuilding. We use ordinal logistic regression techniques to analyze experiential, geophysical, and sociodemographic variables derived from a survey of 384 residents in seven neighborhoods...
June 14, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28605055/geographic-hotspots-of-critical-national-infrastructure
#17
Scott Thacker, Stuart Barr, Raghav Pant, Jim W Hall, David Alderson
Failure of critical national infrastructures can result in major disruptions to society and the economy. Understanding the criticality of individual assets and the geographic areas in which they are located is essential for targeting investments to reduce risks and enhance system resilience. Within this study we provide new insights into the criticality of real-life critical infrastructure networks by integrating high-resolution data on infrastructure location, connectivity, interdependence, and usage. We propose a metric of infrastructure criticality in terms of the number of users who may be directly or indirectly disrupted by the failure of physically interdependent infrastructures...
June 12, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28605045/a-reliability-based-capability-approach
#18
Armin Tabandeh, Paolo Gardoni, Colleen Murphy
This article proposes a rigorous mathematical approach, named a reliability-based capability approach (RCA), to quantify the societal impact of a hazard. The starting point of the RCA is a capability approach in which capabilities refer to the genuine opportunities open to individuals to achieve valuable doings and beings (such as being mobile and being sheltered) called functionings. Capabilities depend on what individuals have and what they can do with what they have. The article develops probabilistic predictive models that relate the value of each functioning to a set of easily predictable or measurable quantities (regressors) in the aftermath of a hazard...
June 12, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28597480/public-understanding-of-ebola-risks-mastering-an-unfamiliar-threat
#19
Baruch Fischhoff, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi, Dana Rose Garfin, E Alison Holman, Roxane Cohen Silver
Ebola was the most widely followed news story in the United States in October 2014. Here, we ask what members of the U.S. public learned about the disease, given the often chaotic media environment. Early in 2015, we surveyed a representative sample of 3,447 U.S. residents about their Ebola-related beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. Where possible, we elicited judgments in terms sufficiently precise to allow comparing them to scientific estimates (e.g., the death toll to date and the probability of dying once ill)...
June 8, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28586099/benchmarking-discount-rate-in-natural-resource-damage-assessment-with-risk-aversion
#20
Desheng Wu, Shuzhen Chen
Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework...
June 6, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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