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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28520197/integrated-uncertainty-analysis-for-ambient-pollutant-health-risk-assessment-a-case-study-of-ozone-mortality-risk
#1
Anne E Smith, Garrett Glasgow
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses health risk assessment to help inform its decisions in setting national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS). EPA's standard approach is to make epidemiologically-based risk estimates based on a single statistical model selected from the scientific literature, called the "core" model. The uncertainty presented for "core" risk estimates reflects only the statistical uncertainty associated with that one model's concentration-response function parameter estimate(s)...
May 18, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28471528/modeling-and-managing-the-risks-of-measles-and-rubella-a-global-perspective-part-ii
#2
Kimberly M Thompson
Measles and rubella continue to circulate globally. Complementing Part I of the special issue, this introduction provides a contrast between other global eradication initiatives and the experience with measles and rubella eradication to date. This introduction builds on the syntheses of the literature provided in Part I and it describes the creation and application of a national risk assessment tool and the development of a dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage measles and rubella globally using vaccines...
May 4, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28471504/multi-exposure-pathway-model-to-compare-escherichia-coli-o157-risks-and-interventions
#3
B Chapman, K Pintar, B A Smith
The relative contributions of exposure pathways associated with cattle-manure-borne Escherichia coli O157:H7 on public health have yet to be fully characterized. A stochastic, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was developed to describe a hypothetical cattle farm in order to compare the relative importance of five routes of exposure, including aquatic recreation downstream of the farm, consumption of contaminated ground beef processed with limited interventions, consumption of leafy greens, direct animal contact, and the recreational use of a cattle pasture...
May 4, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28437870/assessing-the-likelihood-and-magnitude-of-a-population-health-benefit-following-the-market-introduction-of-a-modified-risk-tobacco-product-enhancements-to-the-dynamic-population-modeler-dpm-1
#4
Annette M Bachand, Sandra I Sulsky, Geoffrey M Curtin
Researchers and those responsible for evaluating and implementing policies intended to reduce population harm must assess the potential for both intended and unintended consequences associated with those policies. Such assessments should be based on the combined dimensions of magnitude, and thus likelihood, of shifts in exposure patterns needed to produce a population benefit or harm, and magnitude of the expected population benefit or harm. In response to this assessment need, we provide a conceptual description of the dynamic population modeler, DPM(+1), as well as illustrative analyses that estimate the effects on all-cause mortality, life expectancy, and quality of life-adjusted life expectancy if exposure patterns in the population shift from a higher risk product (e...
April 24, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28437869/risk-modeling-of-interdependent-complex-systems-of-systems-theory-and-practice
#5
Yacov Y Haimes
The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex...
April 24, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28437867/robustness-assessment-of-urban-road-network-with-consideration-of-multiple-hazard-events
#6
Yaoming Zhou, Jiuh-Biing Sheu, Junwei Wang
Robustness measures a system's ability of being insensitive to disturbances. Previous studies assessed the robustness of transportation networks to a single disturbance without considering simultaneously happening multiple events. The purpose of this article is to address this problem and propose a new framework to assess the robustness of an urban transportation network. The framework consists of two layers. The upper layer is to define the robustness index based on the impact evaluation in different scenarios obtained from the lower layer, whereas the lower layer is to evaluate the performance of each hypothetical disrupted road network given by the upper layer...
April 24, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28437864/linear-no-threshold-default-assumptions-are-unwarranted-for-cytotoxic-endpoints-independently-triggered-by-ultrasensitive-molecular-switches
#7
Kenneth T Bogen
Crump's response in this issue to my critique of linear-no-threshold (LNT) default assumptions for noncancer and nongenotoxic cancer risks (Risk Analysis 2016; 36(3):589-604) is rebutted herein. Crump maintains that distinguishing between a low-dose linear dose response and a threshold dose response on the basis of dose-response data is impossible even for endpoints involving increased cytotoxicity. My rebuttal relies on descriptions and specific illustrations of two well-characterized ultrasensitive molecular switches that govern two key cytoprotective responses to cellular stress-heat shock response and antioxidant response element activation, respectively-each of which serve to suppress stress-induced apoptotic cell death unless overwhelmed...
April 24, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28437861/three-stage-decision-making-model-under-restricted-conditions-for-emergency-response-to-ships-not-under-control
#8
Bing Wu, Xinping Yan, Yang Wang, Di Zhang, C Guedes Soares
A ship that is not under control (NUC) is a typical incident that poses serious problems when in confined waters close to shore. The emergency response to NUC ships is to select the best risk control options, which is a challenge in restricted conditions (e.g., time limitation, resource constraint, and information asymmetry), particularly in inland waterway transportation. To enable a quick and effective response, this article develops a three-stage decision-making framework for NUC ship handling. The core of this method is (1) to propose feasible options for each involved entity (e...
April 24, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28437850/public-perception-of-uncertainties-within-climate-change-science
#9
Vivianne H M Visschers
Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research...
April 24, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28437843/a-bayesian-belief-network-model-assessing-the-risk-to-wastewater-workers-of-contracting-ebola-virus-disease-during-an-outbreak
#10
Joseph W Zabinski, Kelsey J Pieper, Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson
During an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD), hospitals' connections to municipal wastewater systems may provide a path for patient waste bearing infectious viral particles to pass from the hospital into the wastewater treatment system, potentially posing risks to sewer and wastewater workers. To quantify these risks, we developed a Bayesian belief network model incorporating data on virus behavior and survival along with structural characteristics of hospitals and wastewater treatment systems. We applied the model to assess risks under several different scenarios of workers' exposure to wastewater for a wastewater system typical of a mid-sized U...
April 24, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28436539/valuing-equal-protection-in-aviation-security-screening
#11
Kenneth D Nguyen, Heather Rosoff, Richard S John
The growing number of anti-terrorism policies has elevated public concerns about discrimination. Within the context of airport security screening, the current study examines how American travelers value the principle of equal protection by quantifying the "equity premium" that they are willing to sacrifice to avoid screening procedures that result in differential treatments. In addition, we applied the notion of procedural justice to explore the effect of alternative selective screening procedures on the value of equal protection...
April 24, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28403572/development-and-application-of-a-probabilistic-risk-benefit-assessment-model-for-infant-feeding-integrating-microbiological-nutritional-and-chemical-components
#12
Géraldine Boué, Enda Cummins, Sandrine Guillou, Jean-Philippe Antignac, Bruno Le Bizec, Jeanne-Marie Membré
A probabilistic and interdisciplinary risk-benefit assessment (RBA) model integrating microbiological, nutritional, and chemical components was developed for infant milk, with the objective of predicting the health impact of different scenarios of consumption. Infant feeding is a particular concern of interest in RBA as breast milk and powder infant formula have both been associated with risks and benefits related to chemicals, bacteria, and nutrients, hence the model considers these three facets. Cronobacter sakazakii, dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCB), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) were three risk/benefit factors selected as key issues in microbiology, chemistry, and nutrition, respectively...
April 12, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28403567/how-to-design-rating-schemes-of-risk-matrices-a-sequential-updating-approach
#13
Jianping Li, Chunbing Bao, Dengsheng Wu
Risk matrices have been widely used as a risk evaluation tool in many fields due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. Designing a rating scheme, i.e., determining the number of ratings used in a risk matrix and assigning different ratings to different cells, is an essential part of risk matrix construction. However, most of the related literature has focused on applying a risk matrix to various fields, instead of researching how to design risk matrices. Based on the analysis of several current rules, we propose a new approach, namely, the sequential updating approach (SUA), to design the rating scheme of a risk matrix in a reliable way...
April 12, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28403530/sociotechnical-resilience-a-preliminary-concept
#14
Sulfikar Amir, Vivek Kant
This article presents the concept of sociotechnical resilience by employing an interdisciplinary perspective derived from the fields of science and technology studies, human factors, safety science, organizational studies, and systems engineering. Highlighting the hybrid nature of sociotechnical systems, we identify three main constituents that characterize sociotechnical resilience: informational relations, sociomaterial structures, and anticipatory practices. Further, we frame sociotechnical resilience as undergirded by the notion of transformability with an emphasis on intentional activities, focusing on the ability of sociotechnical systems to shift from one form to another in the aftermath of shock and disturbance...
April 12, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28403514/the-precautionary-principle-has-not-been-shown-to-be-incoherent-a-reply-to-peterson
#15
Thomas Boyer-Kassem
In this journal, I have objected to Peterson's 2006 claim that the precautionary principle is an incoherent decision rule. I defend my objections to Peterson's recent replies, and I still claim that the precautionary principle has not been shown to be incoherent.
April 12, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28383787/resilience-analysis-of-countries-under-disasters-based-on-multisource-data
#16
Nan Zhang, Hong Huang
Disasters occur almost daily in the world. Because emergencies frequently have no precedent, are highly uncertain, and can be very destructive, improving a country's resilience is an efficient way to reduce risk. In this article, we collected more than 20,000 historical data points from disasters from 207 countries to enable us to calculate the severity of disasters and the danger they pose to countries. In addition, 6 primary indices (disaster, personal attribute, infrastructure, economics, education, and occupation) including 38 secondary influencing factors are considered in analyzing the resilience of countries...
April 6, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28380263/estimating-the-probability-of-human-error-by-incorporating-component-failure-data-from-user-induced-defects-in-the-development-of-complex-electrical-systems
#17
Peter J Majewicz, Paul Blessner, Bill Olson, Timothy Blackburn
This article proposes a methodology for incorporating electrical component failure data into the human error assessment and reduction technique (HEART) for estimating human error probabilities (HEPs). The existing HEART method contains factors known as error-producing conditions (EPCs) that adjust a generic HEP to a more specific situation being assessed. The selection and proportioning of these EPCs are at the discretion of an assessor, and are therefore subject to the assessor's experience and potential bias...
April 5, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28380248/development-of-an-asset-value-map-for-disaster-risk-assessment-in-china-by-spatial-disaggregation-using-ancillary-remote-sensing-data
#18
Jidong Wu, Ying Li, Ning Li, Peijun Shi
The extent of economic losses due to a natural hazard and disaster depends largely on the spatial distribution of asset values in relation to the hazard intensity distribution within the affected area. Given that statistical data on asset value are collected by administrative units in China, generating spatially explicit asset exposure maps remains a key challenge for rapid postdisaster economic loss assessment. The goal of this study is to introduce a top-down (or downscaling) approach to disaggregate administrative-unit level asset value to grid-cell level...
April 5, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28370119/better-demand-signal-better-decisions-evaluation-of-big-data-in-a-licensed-remanufacturing-supply-chain-with-environmental-risk-considerations
#19
Baozhuang Niu, Zongbao Zou
Big data ability helps obtain more accurate demand signal. However, is better demand signal always beneficial for the supply chain parties? To answer this question, we investigate a remanufacturing supply chain (RSC), where demand uncertainty is significant, and the value to reduce environmental risk is large. Specifically, we focus on a licensed RSC comprising an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and a third-party remanufacturer (3PR). The latter pays a unit license fee to the former, and can be risk averse to the demand of remanufactured products...
March 30, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28370082/big-data-challenges-of-high-dimensional-continuous-time-mean-variance-portfolio-selection-and-a-remedy
#20
Mei Choi Chiu, Chi Seng Pun, Hoi Ying Wong
Investors interested in the global financial market must analyze financial securities internationally. Making an optimal global investment decision involves processing a huge amount of data for a high-dimensional portfolio. This article investigates the big data challenges of two mean-variance optimal portfolios: continuous-time precommitment and constant-rebalancing strategies. We show that both optimized portfolios implemented with the traditional sample estimates converge to the worst performing portfolio when the portfolio size becomes large...
March 30, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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