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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29989192/reflections-on-the-use-of-conceptual-research-in-risk-analysis
#1
Terje Aven
A risk analysis science is developing, characterized by knowledge generation on concepts, principles, theories, frameworks, methods, and models, for understanding, assessing, characterizing, communicating, and managing risk (for short referred to as conceptual knowledge generation in risk analysis), as well as supporting risk knowledge generation of specific activities based on these concepts, principles, theories, frameworks, methods, and models. The scientific knowledge generation is based on different types of research methods...
July 10, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29989188/interdisciplinary-approaches-to-examining-postdisaster-school-recovery
#2
Ann-Margaret Esnard, Betty Lai
This perspectives article uses a postdisaster school recovery research domain to examine two tenets of interdisciplinary research (IDR): integrative problem formulation and synthesis. Advancing interdisciplinary knowledge requires a "roadmap" of commonalities between disciplinary domains and outcomes of interest. Four school recovery domains-child trauma, educational learning outcomes, school safety, and household and community recovery-are presented to highlight common frameworks for IDR. A case study is also used to illustrate the value of interdisciplinary research and mixed-methods approaches, including statistics, geospatial analysis, and spatial statistics, for answering questions regarding how school contexts and location influence school recovery patterns...
July 10, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29975988/a-risk-assessment-approach-for-evaluating-the-impact-of-toxic-contaminants-released-indoors-by-considering-various-emergency-ventilation-and-evacuation-strategies
#3
Lingjie Zeng, Jun Gao, Qiong Wang, Le Chang
The release of toxic airborne contaminants resulting from terrorist attacks on buildings can lead to disastrous consequences. To evaluate and reduce the effects of these emergencies, various methods and models have been developed in the past few years. Such work has provided effective tools for the building management system to do risk assessment of the contaminated areas. Although risk analysis methods to describe the contaminant dispersion scenarios made significant progress, these approaches did not generally consider the releasing scenario occurring in the ventilation system and the effect of human behavior during the developing process of an emergency event...
July 5, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29975987/tornado-damage-mitigation-homeowner-support-for-enhanced-building-codes-in-oklahoma
#4
Joseph T Ripberger, Hank C Jenkins-Smith, Carol L Silva, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Howard Kunreuther, Kevin M Simmons
Tornadoes impose enormous costs on society. Relatively simple and inexpensive enhancements to building codes may reduce these costs by 30% or more, but only one city in the United States has adopted these codes. Why is this the case? This analysis addresses this question by examining homeowner support for more stringent building codes in Oklahoma, a conservative state that routinely experiences damaging tornadoes. Survey data show that support for mandatory mitigation policies like building codes is subject to countervailing forces...
July 5, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29975984/multivariate-global-sensitivity-analysis-based-on-distance-components-decomposition
#5
Sinan Xiao, Zhenzhou Lu, Pan Wang
In this article, a new set of multivariate global sensitivity indices based on distance components decomposition is proposed. The proposed sensitivity indices can be considered as an extension of the traditional variance-based sensitivity indices and the covariance decomposition-based sensitivity indices, and they have similar forms. The advantage of the proposed sensitivity indices is that they can measure the effects of an input variable on the whole probability distribution of multivariate model output when the power of distance 0<α<2...
July 5, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29958320/advancing-risk-informed-decision-making-in-managing-defense-nuclear-waste-in-the-united-states-opportunities-and-challenges-for-risk-analysis
#6
Michael R Greenberg, George Apostolakis, Timothy Fields, Bernard D Goldstein, David Kosson, Steven Krahn, R Bruce Matthews, James Rispoli, Jane Stewart, Richard Stewart
An omnibus spending bill in 2014 directed the Department of Energy to analyze how effectively Department of Energy (DOE) identifies, programs, and executes its plans to address public health and safety risks that remain as part of DOE's remaining environmental cleanup liabilities. A committee identified two dozen issues and associated recommendations for the DOE, other federal agencies, and the U.S. Congress to consider, as well as other stakeholders such as states and tribal nations. In regard to risk assessment, the committee described a risk review process that uses available data, expert experience, identifies major data gaps, permits input from key stakeholders, and creates an ordered set of risks based on what is known...
June 29, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29944738/agent-based-models-as-an-integrating-boundary-object-for-interdisciplinary-research
#7
Allison C Reilly, Robin L Dillon, Seth D Guikema
Many of the most complicated and pressing problems in hazards research require the integration of numerous disciplines. The lack of a common knowledge base, however, often prohibits clear communication and interaction among interdisciplinary researchers, sometimes leading to unsuccessful outcomes. Drawing on experience with several projects and collective expertise that spans multiple disciplines, the authors argue that a promising way to enhance participation and enable communication is to have a common model, or boundary object, that can integrate knowledge from different disciplines...
June 26, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29944732/pricing-storm-surge-risks-in-florida-implications-for-determining-flood-insurance-premiums-and-evaluating-mitigation-measures
#8
Marilyn Montgomery, Howard Kunreuther
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has been criticized for inaccurate flood hazard maps and premiums that are not risk based. We employ granular storm surge data comprised of five different event probabilities with associated flood elevations to calculate surge risk-based premiums for homes in Pensacola, Florida, which we compare with NFIP premiums that are based on flood risk data with only one event probability (1% annual chance floods). We demonstrate how more granular flood risk data used for calculating risk-based insurance premiums should be part of the NFIP mapping and rate-setting processes...
June 26, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29924892/bayesian-analysis-of-air-emission-violations-from-waste-incineration-and-coincineration-plants
#9
Evan K Paleologos, Mohamed Elhakeem, Mohamed El Amrousi
Waste incineration and coincineration plants in most European countries have frequently updated their flue gas cleaning systems, surpassing in most cases E.U. air emission standards. At the same time, in most developing countries, cement and other coincineration facilities follow less stringent emission regulations and have a mixed record of protecting air quality. The European Union, the United States, and Canada have established penalties for air emission violations that account for the harm done to the environment and to human health and aiming to remove the economic benefit reaped as a result of noncompliance...
June 20, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29924887/exploring-the-potential-for-multivariate-fragility-representations-to-alter-flood-risk-estimates
#10
Robert A Jane, David J Simmonds, Ben P Gouldby, Jonathan D Simm, Luciana Dalla Valle, Alison C Raby
In flood risk analysis, limitations in the multivariate statistical models adopted to model the hydraulic load have restricted the probability of a defense suffering structural failure to be expressed conditionally on a single hydraulic loading variable. This is an issue at the coastal level where multiple loadings act on defenses with the exact combination of loadings dictating their failure probabilities. Recently, a methodology containing a multivariate statistical model with the flexibility to robustly capture the dependence structure between the individual loadings was used to derive extreme nearshore loading conditions...
June 20, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29924886/integrative-interdisciplinary-approaches-to-critical-infrastructure-interdependency-analysis
#11
Diana Mitsova
There is a growing understanding that cross-sector risks faced by critical infrastructure assets in natural disasters require a collaborative foresight from multiple disciplines. However, current contributions to infrastructure interdependency analysis remain centered in discipline-specific methodologies often constrained by underlying theories and assumptions. This perspective article contributes to ongoing discussions about the uses, challenges, and opportunities provided by interdisciplinary research in critical infrastructure interdependency analysis...
June 20, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29924879/which-parameters-are-important-differential-importance-under-uncertainty
#12
Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos, Emanuele Borgonovo, Sumeda Siriwardena
In probabilistic risk assessment, attention is often focused on the expected value of a risk metric. The sensitivity of this expectation to changes in the parameters of the distribution characterizing uncertainty in the inputs becomes of interest. Approaches based on differentiation encounter limitations when (i) distributional parameters are expressed in different units or (ii) the analyst wishes to transfer sensitivity insights from individual parameters to parameter groups, when alternating between different levels of a probabilistic safety assessment model...
June 20, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29906307/understanding-compound-interconnected-interacting-and-cascading-risks-a-holistic-framework
#13
Gianluca Pescaroli, David Alexander
In recent years, there has been a gradual increase in research literature on the challenges of interconnected, compound, interacting, and cascading risks. These concepts are becoming ever more central to the resilience debate. They aggregate elements of climate change adaptation, critical infrastructure protection, and societal resilience in the face of complex, high-impact events. However, despite the potential of these concepts to link together diverse disciplines, scholars and practitioners need to avoid treating them in a superficial or ambiguous manner...
June 15, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29900566/a-probabilistic-paradigm-for-the-parametric-insurance-of-natural-hazards
#14
Rui Figueiredo, Mario L V Martina, David B Stephenson, Benjamin D Youngman
There is a pressing need for simple and reliable risk transfer mechanisms that can pay out quickly after natural disasters without delays caused by loss estimation, and the need for long historical claims records. One such approach, known as parametric insurance, pays out when a key hazard variable exceeds a predetermined threshold. However, this approach to catastrophe risk, based on making deterministic binary predictions of loss occurrence, is susceptible to basis risk (mismatch between payouts and realized losses)...
June 13, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29900563/microbiota-and-dose-response-evolving-paradigm-of-health-triangle
#15
Margaret Coleman, Christopher Elkins, Bradford Gutting, Emmanuel Mongodin, Gloria Solano-Aguilar, Isabel Walls
SRA Dose-Response and Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Groups jointly sponsored symposia that addressed the intersections between the "microbiome revolution" and dose response. Invited speakers presented on innovations and advances in gut and nasal microbiota (normal microbial communities) in the first decade after the Human Microbiome Project began. The microbiota and their metabolites are now known to influence health and disease directly and indirectly, through modulation of innate and adaptive immune systems and barrier function...
June 13, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29874395/it-s-complicated-the-2014-2015-u-s-measles-outbreak-and-parents-vaccination-beliefs-confidence-and-intentions
#16
Michael A Cacciatore, Glen J Nowak, Nathaniel J Evans
While it seems intuitive that highly visible vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks should impact perceptions of disease risk and facilitate vaccination, few empirical studies exist to confirm or dispel these beliefs. This study investigates the impact of the 2014-2015 Disneyland measles outbreak on parents' vaccination attitudes and future vaccination intentions. The analysis relies on a pair of public opinion surveys of American parents with at least one child under the age of six (N = 1,000 across each survey)...
June 6, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29864198/formalizing-the-precautionary-principle-accounting-for-strategic-interaction-natural-factors-and-technological-factors
#17
Kjell Hausken
Four dimensions of the precautionary principle (PP), involving threat, uncertainty, action, and command, are formalized at the level of set theory and the level of individual players and natural and technological factors. Flow and decision diagrams with a feedback loop are developed to open up a new research agenda. The role of strategic interaction and games in the PP is underdeveloped or nonexistent in today's literature. To rectify this deficiency, six kinds of games are identified in the four PP dimensions...
June 4, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29813185/bad-news-has-wings-dread-risk-mediates-social-amplification-in-risk-communication
#18
Robert D Jagiello, Thomas T Hills
Social diffusion of information amplifies risk through processes of birth, death, and distortion of message content. Dread risk-involving uncontrollable, fatal, involuntary, and catastrophic outcomes (e.g., terrorist attacks and nuclear accidents)-may be particularly susceptible to amplification because of the psychological biases inherent in dread risk avoidance. To test this, initially balanced information about high or low dread topics was given to a set of individuals who then communicated this information through diffusion chains, each person passing a message to the next...
May 29, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29813176/should-i-text-or-call-here-a-situation-based-analysis-of-drivers-perceived-likelihood-of-engaging-in-mobile-phone-multitasking
#19
Oscar Oviedo-Trespalacios, Md Mazharul Haque, Mark King, Simon Washington
This study investigated how situational characteristics typically encountered in the transport system influence drivers' perceived likelihood of engaging in mobile phone multitasking. The impacts of mobile phone tasks, perceived environmental complexity/risk, and drivers' individual differences were evaluated as relevant individual predictors within the behavioral adaptation framework. An innovative questionnaire, which includes randomized textual and visual scenarios, was administered to collect data from a sample of 447 drivers in South East Queensland-Australia (66% females; n = 296)...
May 29, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29783277/how-safe-is-safe-enough-for-self-driving-vehicles
#20
Peng Liu, Run Yang, Zhigang Xu
Self-driving vehicles (SDVs) promise to considerably reduce traffic crashes. One pressing concern facing the public, automakers, and governments is "How safe is safe enough for SDVs?" To answer this question, a new expressed-preference approach was proposed for the first time to determine the socially acceptable risk of SDVs. In our between-subject survey (N = 499), we determined the respondents' risk-acceptance rate of scenarios with varying traffic-risk frequencies to examine the logarithmic relationships between the traffic-risk frequency and risk-acceptance rate...
May 21, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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