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Population Studies

Christian Dudel, Sebastian Klüsener
Comparative perspectives on men's fertility are still rare, in part because vital registration data are often missing paternal age information for a substantial number of births. We compare two imputation approaches that attempt to estimate men's age-specific fertility rates and related measures for data in which paternal age information is missing for a non-negligible number of cases. Taking births with paternal age information as a reference, the first approach uses the unconditional paternal age distribution, while the second approach considers the paternal age distribution conditional on the maternal age...
July 13, 2018: Population Studies
James Raymer, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the largest component of population growth and most influential in debates about societal and economic change. In this paper, we address the need for better forecasting models of international migration by testing a hierarchical (bilinear) model within the Bayesian inferential framework, recently developed to forecast age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration in the United Kingdom, on other types of migration flow data: age- and sex-specific time series from Sweden, South Korea, and Australia...
June 6, 2018: Population Studies
Ridhi Kashyap
I examine whether prenatal sex selection has substituted postnatal excess female mortality by analysing the dynamics of child sex ratios between 1980 and 2015 using country-level life table data. I decompose changes in child sex ratios into a 'fertility' component attributable to prenatal sex selection and a 'mortality' component attributable to sex differentials in postnatal survival. Although reductions in numbers of excess female deaths have accompanied increases in missing female births in all countries experiencing the emergence of prenatal sex selection, relative excess female mortality has persisted in some countries but not others...
May 25, 2018: Population Studies
Yan Yu
This paper introduces the metric 'mean duration of obesity' to measure the average number of years lived with obesity in a population. A procedure was developed to estimate duration from periodic cross-sectional surveys. For annual cohorts born in the United States between 1925 and 1989, I estimated a logit model to derive age-cohort-specific probabilities of overweight and obesity (body mass index 25 to <30 and [Formula: see text]30, respectively), and applied life table techniques to convert these into person-years...
May 25, 2018: Population Studies
Guido Alfani, Marco Bonetti
This paper develops the first survival analysis of a large-scale mortality crisis caused by plague. For the time-to-event analyses we used the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Our case study is the town of Nonantola during the 1630 plague, which was probably the worst to affect Italy since the Black Death. Individual risk of death did not depend on sex, grew with age (peaking at ages 40-60 and then declining), was not affected by socio-economic status, and was positively associated with household size...
May 17, 2018: Population Studies
Ingrid K van Dijk
Research on early-life mortality in contemporary and historical populations has shown that infant and child mortality tend to cluster in a limited number of high-mortality families, a phenomenon known as 'mortality clustering'. This paper is the first to review the literature on the role of the family in early-life mortality. Contemporary results, methodological and theoretical shortfalls, recent developments, and opportunities for future research are all discussed in this review. Four methodological approaches are distinguished: those based on sibling deaths, mother heterogeneity, thresholds, and excess deaths in populations...
May 4, 2018: Population Studies
Ronald Skeldon
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
July 2018: Population Studies
Elena Shadrina
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
July 2018: Population Studies
Cecilia Potente, Christiaan Monden
The role of socio-economic status (SES) in the last years of life is an under-researched aspect of health inequalities. This study examines disability patterns preceding death using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. We use repeated measures latent class analysis to identify the most common pathways preceding death in terms of walking ability and limitations in activities of daily living. Three pathways emerge: one characterized by consistently low disability; a second by a constant high level of functional limitations; and a third by medium impairment...
July 2018: Population Studies
Christina J Cross
This study uses nationally representative longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, to examine the prevalence and predictors of extended family households among children in the United States and to explore variation by race/ethnicity and socio-economic status (SES). Findings suggest that extended family households are a common living arrangement for children, with 35 per cent of youth experiencing this family structure before age 18. Racial/ethnic and SES differences are substantial: 57 per cent of Black and 35 per cent of Hispanic children ever live in an extended family, compared with 20 per cent of White children...
July 2018: Population Studies
Stefano Mazzuco, Bruno Scarpa, Lucia Zanotto
A new mortality model based on a mixture distribution function is proposed. We mix a half-normal distribution with a generalization of the skew-normal distribution. As a result, we get a six-parameter distribution function that has a good fit with a wide variety of mortality patterns. This mixture model is fitted to several mortality data schedules and compared with the Siler (five-parameter) and Heligman-Pollard (eight-parameter) models. Our proposal serves as a convenient compromise between the Heligman-Pollard model (which ensures a good fit with data but is often overparameterized) and the Siler model (which is more compact but fails to capture 'accident humps')...
July 2018: Population Studies
Jakub Bijak
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
July 2018: Population Studies
Joanna Marczak, Wendy Sigle, Ernestina Coast
In research and policy discourse, conceptualizations of fertility decision-making often assume that people only consider circumstances within national borders. In an integrated Europe, citizens may know about and compare conditions across countries. Such comparisons may influence the way people think about and respond to childrearing costs. To explore this possibility and its implications, we present evidence from 44 in-depth interviews with Polish parents in the United Kingdom and Poland. Explanations of childbearing decisions involved comparisons of policy packages and living standards across countries...
July 2018: Population Studies
Øystein Kravdal
There is still considerable uncertainty about how reproductive factors affect child mortality. This study, based on Demographic and Health Survey data from 28 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, shows that mortality is highest for firstborn children with very young mothers. Other children with young mothers, or of high birth order, also experience high mortality. Net of maternal age and birth order, a short preceding birth interval is associated with above average mortality. These patterns change, however, if time-invariant unobserved mother-level characteristics of importance for both mortality and fertility are controlled for in a multilevel-multiprocess model...
July 2018: Population Studies
Jorge Rodríguez-Vignoli, Francisco Rowe
Internal migration is a key driver of patterns of human settlement and socio-economic development, but little is known about its compositional impacts. Exploiting the wide availability of census data, we propose a method to quantify the internal migration impacts on local population structures, and estimate these impacts for eight large Latin American cities. We show that internal migration generally had small feminizing, downgrading educational, and demographic window effects: reducing the local sex ratio, lowering the average years of schooling, and raising the share of working-age population due to an increased young adult population...
July 2018: Population Studies
Kieron Barclay, Mikko Myrskylä
As parental ages at birth continue to rise, concerns about the effects of fertility postponement on offspring are increasing. Due to reproductive ageing, advanced parental ages have been associated with negative health outcomes for offspring, including decreased longevity. The literature, however, has neglected to examine the potential benefits of being born at a later date. Secular declines in mortality mean that later birth cohorts are living longer. We analyse mortality over ages 30-74 among 1.9 million Swedish men and women born 1938-60, and use a sibling comparison design that accounts for all time-invariant factors shared by the siblings...
July 2018: Population Studies
Mathias Lerch
Fertility decline in central and eastern Europe (CEE) since the fall of the communist regimes has been driven by both stopping and postponement of childbearing: two processes that have been related to crisis and economic development, respectively. In the Western Balkans these economic and political contexts followed each other in the form of a biphasic transition. I examine whether this sequence triggered fertility responses like those observed elsewhere. Relying on three independent data sources, I cross-validate the levels of, and describe the trends in, union formation and fertility (by birth order) between 1980 and 2010...
July 2018: Population Studies
Hill Kulu, Emma Lundholm, Gunnar Malmberg
The aim of this study is to investigate spatial mobility over time. Research on 'new mobilities' suggests increasing movement of individuals, technology, and information. By contrast, studies of internal migration report declining spatial mobility in recent decades. Using longitudinal register data from Sweden, we calculate annual order-specific migration rates to investigate the spatial mobility of young adults over the last three decades. We standardize mobility rates for educational enrolment, educational level, family status, and place of residence to determine how much changes in individuals' life domains explain changes in mobility...
April 17, 2018: Population Studies
Alice Goisis, Daniel C Schneider, Mikko Myrskylä
Existing studies provide contradictory evidence concerning the association between child health and advanced maternal age. A potential explanation for the lack of consensus on this issue is changes over time in the costs and benefits of giving birth at an advanced age. This is the first study to investigate secular changes in the characteristics of older mothers and in the association between advanced maternal age and child health. We use data from four UK cohort studies, covering births from 1958 to 2001, and use low birth weight (LBW) as a marker for child health...
March 27, 2018: Population Studies
Marcus Ebeling, Roland Rau, Annette Baudisch
Rectangularization of the survival curve-a key analytical framework in mortality research-relies on assumptions that have become partially obsolete in high-income countries due to mortality reductions among the oldest old. We propose refining the concept to adjust for recent and potential future mortality changes. Our framework, the 'maximum inner rectangle approach' (MIRA) considers two types of rectangularization. Outer rectangularization captures progress in mean lifespan relative to progress in maximum lifespan...
March 8, 2018: Population Studies
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