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Population Studies

David J Sharrow, Jessica Godwin, Yanjun He, Samuel J Clark, Adrian E Raftery
In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic...
December 19, 2017: Population Studies
Júlia Mikolai, Hill Kulu
This paper investigates the effects of marital and non-marital separation on individuals' housing tenure in England and Wales. We apply competing risks event history models to data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study to analyse the risk of a residential move to different tenure types, for single, married, cohabiting, and separated men and women. Separated individuals are more likely to move and experience a tenure change than those who are single or in a relationship...
November 28, 2017: Population Studies
Julia A Jennings, Luciana Quaranta, Tommy Bengtsson
We examine economic inequality and social differences in infant and child mortality, and fertility responses to food price changes in North Orkney, 1855-1910, using linked vital records. This small population featured a diverse occupational structure, limited land resources, and geographic isolation from mainland Scotland. Segments of Orkney's non-agricultural working population were living so close to the margin of subsistence in normal years that an increase in food prices in bad years cost the lives of their children...
November 2017: Population Studies
Susan B Schaffnit, Rebecca Sear
Low fertility across Europe highlights the need to understand reproductive decisions in high-income countries better. Availability of support may be one factor influencing reproductive decisions, though within high-income countries availability varies between environments, including socio-economic environments. We test whether receiving higher levels of support, from different sources (informal and formal) and of different types (practical and emotional), is positively correlated with second births in the United Kingdom (UK) Millennium Cohort Study, and whether these relationships differ by socio-economic position (SEP)...
November 2017: Population Studies
Sarah R Hayford, Victor Agadjanian
Classic demographic theories conceptualize desired family size as a fixed goal that guides fertility intentions over the childbearing years. However, a growing body of research shows that fertility plans, even nominally long-term plans for completed childbearing, change in response to short-term conditions. Because of data limitations, much of this research has focused on low-fertility contexts, but short-term conditions are likely to be even more important in high-fertility contexts. This paper uses three waves of survey data collected in rural Mozambique to study predictors of the desire to stop childbearing in a context of relatively high fertility and high individual and social instability...
November 2017: Population Studies
Christophe Z Guilmoto
I present a method for estimating indicators of gender bias in reproductive behaviour, using microdata based on the own-children method. The method is first tested on a large sample from India with both birth history and household records. I then apply the method to Georgia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. My estimates demonstrate that the proportion of Georgian couples expressing a preference for sons in their fertility behaviour closely corresponds to the proportion resorting to sex selection at high parities. I show how individual Indonesian provinces provide examples of both son and daughter preference...
November 2017: Population Studies
Dan A Black, Yu-Chieh Hsu, Seth G Sanders, Lowell J Taylor
Demographers often form estimates by combining information from two data sources-a challenging problem when one or both data sources are incomplete. A classic example entails the construction of death probabilities, which requires death counts for the subpopulations under study and corresponding base population estimates. Approaches typically entail 'back projection', as in Wrigley and Schofield's seminal analysis of historical English data, or 'inverse' or 'forward projection' as used by Lee in his important reanalysis of that work, both published in the 1980s...
November 2017: Population Studies
Jennifer A Holland, Helga A G de Valk
Second-generation Turkish immigrants make up an increasingly important segment of European labour markets. These young adults are entering the prime working ages and forming families. However, we have only a limited understanding of the relationship between labour force participation and parenthood among second-generation Turkish women. Using unique data from the Integration of the European Second Generation survey (2007/08), we compared the labour force participation of second-generation Turkish women with their majority-group counterparts by motherhood status in four countries...
November 2017: Population Studies
Aude Bernard
Europe displays important variations in the level of internal migration, with a clear spatial gradient of high mobility in northern and western Europe but lower mobility in the south and east. However, cross-national variation in levels of internal migration remains poorly understood, because it is analysed almost exclusively using cross-sectional data and period measures. This paper seeks to advance understanding of cross-national variation in migration levels in 14 European countries by drawing on a recently proposed suite of migration cohort measures, coupled with internationally comparable retrospective residential histories...
October 13, 2017: Population Studies
Irma T Elo, Pekka Martikainen, Mikko Aaltonen
Using data from Finland, this paper contributes to a small but growing body of research regarding adult children's education, occupation, and income and their parents' mortality at ages 50+ in 1970-2007. Higher levels of Children's education are associated with 30-36 per cent lower parental mortality at ages 50-75, controlling for parents' education, occupation, and income. This association is fully mediated by Children's occupation and income, except for cancer mortality. Having at least one child educated in healthcare is associated with 11-16 per cent lower all-cause mortality at ages 50-75, an association that is largely driven by mortality from cardiovascular diseases...
October 10, 2017: Population Studies
Catriona A Towriss, Ian M Timæus
We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries...
October 10, 2017: Population Studies
André Grow, Christine Schnor, Jan Van Bavel
Recent evidence from the United States suggests that the reversal of the gender gap in education was associated with changes in relative divorce risks: hypogamous marriages, where the wife was more educated than the husband, used to have a higher divorce risk than hypergamous marriages, where the husband was more educated, but this difference has disappeared. One interpretation holds that this may result from cultural change, involving increasing social acceptance of hypogamy. We propose an alternative mechanism that need not presuppose cultural change: the gender-gap reversal in education has changed the availability of alternatives from which highly educated women and men can choose new partners...
October 2017: Population Studies
Frans Willekens, Jakub Bijak, Anna Klabunde, Alexia Prskawetz
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
October 2017: Population Studies
Jonathan Gray, Jason Hilton, Jakub Bijak
This paper investigates the issues associated with choosing appropriate models of choice for demographic agent-based models. In particular, we discuss the importance of context, time preference, and dealing with uncertainty in decision modelling, as well as the heterogeneity between agents in their decision-making strategies. The paper concludes by advocating empirically driven, modular, and multi-model approaches to designing simulations of human decision-making, given the lack of an agreed strategy for dealing with any of these issues...
October 2017: Population Studies
Tom Warnke, Oliver Reinhardt, Anna Klabunde, Frans Willekens, Adelinde M Uhrmacher
Individuals' decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by networks the individual is part of, such as family ties and other social networks...
October 2017: Population Studies
Anna Klabunde, Sabine Zinn, Frans Willekens, Matthias Leuchter
We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling...
October 2017: Population Studies
Stefanie Kley
Behavioural models of migration emphasize the importance of migration decision-making for the explanation of subsequent behaviour. But empirical migration research regularly finds considerable gaps between those who intend to migrate and those who actually realize their intention. This paper applies the Theory of Planned Behaviour, enriched by the Rubicon model, to test specific hypotheses about distinct effects of facilitators and constraints on specific stages of migration decision-making and behaviour. The data come from a tailor-made panel survey based on random samples of people drawn from two German cities in 2006-07...
October 2017: Population Studies
Fjalar Finnäs, Mikael Rostila, Jan Saarela
Most studies that have examined whether a child's death influences parental relationship stability have used small-scale data sets and their results are inconclusive. A likely reason is that child loss affects not only the risk of parental separation, but also the risk of having another child. Hence parity progression and separation must be treated as two competing events in relation to child loss. The analysis in this paper used Finnish register data from 1971 to 2003, covering over 100,000 married couples whose durations of both first marriage and parenthood could be observed...
August 9, 2017: Population Studies
Elyse A Jennings
The presence, number, sex, and age composition of children within families can have important influences on couples' marital outcomes. Children are valued across settings, but their value in settings where there is an absence of formalized social security is distinctive. This paper explores the influences of childlessness, and different number, age, and sex compositions of children, on the odds of marital dissolution among couples in rural Nepal. Results reveal that childless couples face significantly higher odds of dissolution than couples with at least one child, and each additional child-up to three children-reduces couples' odds of dissolution...
July 2017: Population Studies
Margaret Frye, Lauren Bachan
This paper examines the decline in non-numeric responses to questions about fertility preferences among women in the developing world. These types of response-such as 'don't know' or 'it's up to God'-have often been interpreted through the lens of fertility transition theory as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered women's 'calculus of conscious choice'. However, this has yet to be investigated cross-nationally and over time. Using 19 years of data from 32 countries, we find that non-numeric fertility preferences decline most substantially in the early stages of a country's fertility transition...
July 2017: Population Studies
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