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Demography

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28585024/job-displacement-and-first-birth-over-the-business-cycle
#1
Barbara Hofmann, Michaela Kreyenfeld, Arne Uhlendorff
In this article, we investigate the impact of job displacement on women's first-birth rates as well as the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We use mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after displacement. Our analysis is based on rich administrative data from Germany, with an observation period spanning more than 20 years. We apply inverse probability weighting (IPW) to flexibly control for the observed differences between women who were and were not displaced...
June 5, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28523453/optimizing-the-lee-carter-approach-in-the-presence-of-structural-changes-in-time-and-age-patterns-of-mortality-improvements
#2
Hong Li, Johnny Siu-Hang Li
Researchers using the Lee-Carter approach have often assumed that the time-varying index evolves linearly and that the parameters describing the age pattern of mortality decline are time-invariant. However, as several empirical studies suggest, the two assumptions do not seem to hold when the calibration window begins too early. This problem gives rise to the question of identifying the longest calibration window for which the two assumptions hold true. To address this question, we contribute a likelihood ratio-based sequential test to jointly test whether the two assumptions are satisfied...
May 18, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28493101/the-german-east-west-mortality-difference-two-crossovers-driven-by-smoking
#3
Tobias Vogt, Alyson van Raalte, Pavel Grigoriev, Mikko Myrskylä
Before the fall of the Berlin Wall, mortality was considerably higher in the former East Germany than in West Germany. The gap narrowed rapidly after German reunification. The convergence was particularly strong for women, to the point that Eastern women aged 50-69 now have lower mortality despite lower incomes and worse overall living conditions. Prior research has shown that lower smoking rates among East German female cohorts born in the 1940s and 1950s were a major contributor to this crossover. However, after 1990, smoking behavior changed dramatically, with higher smoking intensity observed among women in the eastern part of Germany...
May 10, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28484997/women-left-behind-poverty-and-headship-in-africa
#4
Annamaria Milazzo, Dominique van de Walle
Two stylized facts about poverty in Africa motivate this article: female-headed households tend to be poorer, and poverty has been falling in the aggregate since the 1990s. These facts raise two questions. First, how have female-headed households fared? Second, what role have they played in Africa's impressive recent aggregate growth and poverty reduction? Using data covering the entire region, we reexamine the current prevalence and characteristics of female-headed households and ask whether their prevalence has been rising, what factors have been associated with such changes since the mid-1990s, and whether poverty has fallen equiproportionately for male- and female-headed households...
May 8, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28484996/preference-for-boys-family-size-and-educational-attainment-in-india
#5
Adriana D Kugler, Santosh Kumar
Using data from nationally representative household surveys, we test whether Indian parents make trade-offs between the number of children and investments in education. To address the endogeneity due to the joint determination of quantity and quality of children, we instrument family size with the gender of the first child, which is plausibly random. Given a strong son preference in India, parents tend to have more children if the firstborn is a girl. Our instrumental variable results show that children from larger families have lower educational attainment and are less likely to be enrolled in school, with larger effects for rural, poorer, and low-caste families as well as for families with illiterate mothers...
May 8, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28466435/tenancy-marriage-and-the-boll-weevil-infestation-1892-1930
#6
Deirdre Bloome, James Feigenbaum, Christopher Muller
In the early twentieth century, the cotton-growing regions of the U.S. South were dominated by families of tenant farmers. Tenant farming created opportunities and incentives for prospective tenants to marry at young ages. These opportunities and incentives especially affected African Americans, who had few alternatives to working as tenants. Using complete-count Census of Population data from 1900-1930 and Census of Agriculture data from 1889-1929, we find that increases in tenancy over time increased the prevalence of marriage among young African Americans...
May 2, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28466434/non-heterosexuality-relationships-and-young-women-s-contraceptive-behavior
#7
Elizabeth J Ela, Jamie Budnick
Non-heterosexual young women have a higher rate of unintended pregnancy than their heterosexual peers, but their fertility behaviors are understudied. We use longitudinal data from the Relationship Dynamics and Social Life study to investigate mechanisms contributing to non-heterosexual women's higher pregnancy risk. These data include weekly reports of relationships, sex, and contraceptive use over 30 months. We compare the relationships and fertility behaviors of three groups: exclusively heterosexual (consistent heterosexual behavior, identity, and attraction); mostly heterosexual (heterosexual identity with same-sex behavior and/or same-sex attraction); and LGBTQ (any non-heterosexual identity)...
May 2, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28455620/trends-in-economic-homogamy-changes-in-assortative-mating-or-the-division-of-labor-in-marriage
#8
Pilar Gonalons-Pons, Christine R Schwartz
The growing economic resemblance of spouses has contributed to rising inequality by increasing the number of couples in which there are two high- or two low-earning partners. The dominant explanation for this trend is increased assortative mating. Previous research has primarily relied on cross-sectional data and thus has been unable to disentangle changes in assortative mating from changes in the division of spouses' paid labor-a potentially key mechanism given the dramatic rise in wives' labor supply. We use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to decompose the increase in the correlation between spouses' earnings and its contribution to inequality between 1970 and 2013 into parts due to (a) changes in assortative mating, and (b) changes in the division of paid labor...
April 28, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28455619/reply-to-trends-in-education-specific-life-expectancy-data-quality-and-shifting-education-distributions-a-note-on-recent-research
#9
Isaac Sasson
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
April 28, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28432559/the-marriage-wealth-premium-revisited-gender-disparities-and-within-individual-changes-in-personal-wealth-in-germany
#10
Philipp M Lersch
This study examines the association between marriage and economic wealth of women and men. Going beyond previous research that focused on household wealth, I examine personal wealth, which allows identifying gender disparities in the association between marriage and wealth. Using unique data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (2002, 2007, and 2012), I apply random-effects and fixed-effects regression models to test my expectations. I find that both women and men experience substantial marriage wealth premiums not only in household wealth but also in personal wealth...
April 21, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28432558/resolved-parental-infertility-and-children-s-educational-achievement
#11
Amelia R Branigan, Jonas Helgertz
Although difficulty conceiving a child has long been a major medical and social preoccupation, it has not been considered as a predictor of long-term outcomes in children ultimately conceived. This is consistent with a broader gap in knowledge regarding the consequences of parental health for educational performance in offspring. Here we address that omission, asking how resolved parental infertility relates to children's academic achievement. In a sample of all Swedish births between 1988 and 1995, we find that involuntary childlessness prior to either a first or a second birth is associated with lower academic achievement (both test scores and GPA) in children at age 16, even if the period of infertility was prior to a sibling's birth rather than the child's own...
April 21, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28425032/parenting-in-on-off-relationships-the-link-between-relationship-churning-and-father-involvement
#12
Kristin Turney, Sarah Halpern-Meekin
Family systems theory points to the interconnected nature of dyadic relationships within the family unit, arguing for attention to how the parental relationship shapes their ties to and interactions with their children. Grounded in family systems theory, we consider how relationship churning-defined as being in an on-again/off-again relationship with the same partner-is associated with father involvement. We use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to examine how father involvement among relationship churners compares with father involvement among those in three other relationship types (measured during the first five years of the focal child's life): stably together relationships, stably broken-up relationships, and repartnered relationships...
April 19, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28401501/the-sibsize-revolution-and-social-disparities-in-children-s-family-contexts-in-the-united-states-1940-2012
#13
Tony Fahey
This article points to a sharp decline in children's sibling numbers (sibsize) that occurred in the United States since the 1970s and was large enough among children with lower socioeconomic status (SES) (particularly black children) to amount to a revolution in their family circumstances. It interprets sibsize decline as a source of social convergence in children's family contexts that ran counter to trends toward social divergence caused by the rise of lone parenthood. The article is based on new estimates of differences in children's sibsize and lone parenthood by race and maternal education generated from public-use samples from the Census of Population and Current Population Survey (CPS), focusing especially on the period 1940-2012...
April 11, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28401500/back-to-school-racial-and-gender-differences-in-adults-participation-in-formal-schooling-1978-2013
#14
Patrick Denice
Trends and gaps in educational attainment by race and gender have received much attention in recent years, but reports of these trends have generally focused on traditional-age college students. Little is known about whether and how enrollment in formal schooling among older adults (between 29 and 61 years old) has changed over time. In this article, I draw on Current Population Survey data from 1978 to 2013 to provide the most comprehensive analysis of trends in adults' formal school enrollment by demographic group to date...
April 11, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28397178/trends-in-education-specific-life-expectancy-data-quality-and-shifting-education-distributions-a-note-on-recent-research
#15
Arun S Hendi
Several recent articles have reported conflicting conclusions about educational differences in life expectancy, and this is partly due to the use of unreliable data subject to a numerator-denominator bias previously reported as ranging from 20 % to 40 %. This article presents estimates of life expectancy and lifespan variation by education in the United States using more reliable data from the National Health Interview Survey. Contrary to prior conclusions in the literature, I find that life expectancy increased or stagnated since 1990 among all education-race-sex groups except for non-Hispanic white women with less than a high school education; there has been a robust increase in life expectancy among white high school graduates and a smaller increase among black female high school graduates; lifespan variation did not increase appreciably among high school graduates; and lifespan variation plays a very limited role in explaining educational gradients in mortality...
April 10, 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28397179/a-quiescent-phase-in-human-mortality-exploring-the-ages-of-least-vulnerability
#16
Michal Engelman, Christopher L Seplaki, Ravi Varadhan
Demographic studies of mortality often emphasize the two ends of the lifespan, focusing on the declining hazard after birth or the increasing risk of death at older ages. We call attention to the intervening phase, when humans are least vulnerable to the force of mortality, and consider its features in both evolutionary and historical perspectives. We define this quiescent phase (Q-phase) formally, estimate its bounds using life tables for Swedish cohorts born between 1800 and 1920, and describe changes in the morphology of the Q-phase...
June 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28332136/new-evidence-against-a-causal-marriage-wage-premium
#17
Alexandra Killewald, Ian Lundberg
Recent research has shown that men's wages rise more rapidly than expected prior to marriage, but interpretations diverge on whether this indicates selection or a causal effect of anticipating marriage. We seek to adjudicate this debate by bringing together literatures on (1) the male marriage wage premium; (2) selection into marriage based on men's economic circumstances; and (3) the transition to adulthood, during which both union formation and unusually rapid improvements in work outcomes often occur. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, we evaluate these perspectives...
June 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28281275/an-assessment-and-extension-of-the-mechanism-based-approach-to-the-identification-of-age-period-cohort-models
#18
Maarten J Bijlsma, Rhian M Daniel, Fanny Janssen, Bianca L De Stavola
Many methods have been proposed to solve the age-period-cohort (APC) linear identification problem, but most are not theoretically informed and may lead to biased estimators of APC effects. One exception is the mechanism-based approach recently proposed and based on Pearl's front-door criterion; this approach ensures consistent APC effect estimators in the presence of a complete set of intermediate variables between one of age, period, cohort, and the outcome of interest, as long as the assumed parametric models for all the relevant causal pathways are correct...
April 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28281273/eliciting-survival-expectations-of-the-elderly-in-low-income-countries-evidence-from-india
#19
Adeline Delavande, Jinkook Lee, Seetha Menon
We examine several methodological considerations when eliciting probabilistic expectations in a developing country context using the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI). We conclude that although, on average, individuals are able to understand the concept of probability, responses are sensitive to framing effects and to own versus hypothetical-person effects. We find that overall, people are pessimistic about their survival probabilities compared with state-specific life tables and that socioeconomic status does influence beliefs about own survival expectations as found in previous literature in other countries...
April 2017: Demography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28233235/children-s-development-and-parental-input-evidence-from-the-uk-millennium-cohort-study
#20
Mónica Hernández-Alava, Gurleen Popli
In this study, we use the UK Millennium Cohort Study to estimate a dynamic factor model of child development. Our model follows the children from birth until 7 years of age and allows for both cognitive and noncognitive abilities in children. We find a significant self-productivity effect in both cognitive and noncognitive development, as well as some evidence of dynamic dependence across different abilities. The activities that parents carry out with children at home (parental investment) have a significant effect on children's development; we find substantial evidence of two distinct latent parental investment variables with differential effects across the two abilities...
April 2017: Demography
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