Journal of Hepatology

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Prediction models are everywhere in clinical medicine. We use them to assign a diagnosis or a prognosis, and there is a continuous effort to develop better prediction models. It is important to understand the fundamentals of prediction modeling, and here we describe nine steps to develop and validate a clinical prediction model with the intention of implementing it in clinical practice: Determine if there is a need for a new prediction model; define the purpose and intended use for the model; assess the quality and quantity of the data you wish to develop the model on; develop the model using sound statistical methods; generate risk predictions on the probability scale (0-100%); evaluate the performance of the model in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility; validate the model using bootstrapping to correct for the apparent optimism in performance; validate the model on external datasets to assess the generalizability and transportability of the model; and finally publish the model so that it can be implemented or validated by others...

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BACKGROUND: Factors predicting HBsAg seroclearance after treatment cessation, irrespective of nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) resumption, have important clinical implications. We evaluated predictors of long-term HBsAg seroclearance after entecavir cessation. METHODS: This study followed up Chinese chronic hepatitis B patients from two previous studies of entecavir cessation. All patients were non-cirrhotic, HBeAg-negative, with undetectable HBV DNA (<20 IU/ml) at end-of-treatment (EOT)...

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BACKGROUND & AIMS: We sought to identify predictors of outcome for people living with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). METHODS: We evaluated the clinical course of people with AIH across 11 Canadian centres. Biochemical changes were analysed using linear mixed-effect and logistic regression. Clinical outcome was dynamically modelled using time-varying Cox proportional hazard modelling and landmark analysis. RESULTS: In 691 patients (median age 49 years, 75...

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Patients with cirrhosis are prone to develop acute kidney injury (AKI), a complication associated with a markedly increased in-hospital morbidity and mortality, along with a risk of progression to chronic kidney disease. Whereas patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk of developing any phenotype of AKI, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), a specific form of AKI (HRS-AKI) in patients with advanced cirrhosis and ascites, carries an especially high mortality risk. Early recognition of HRS-AKI is crucial since administration of splanchnic vasoconstrictors may reverse the AKI and serve as a bridge to liver transplantation, the only curative option...

INTRODUCTION: To maximize utility and prevent premature liver transplantation (LT), a delayed LT strategy (DS) was adopted in France in 2015 in patients listed for any single HCC treated with resection or thermal-ablation during waiting phase, postponing LT until recurrence. The purpose of this study was to evaluate DS to make sure that it did not hamper pre and post-LT outcomes in DS patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients listed for HCC in France between 2015 and 2018 were studied...

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Baveno VII has defined a clinically significant (i.e., prognostically meaningful) liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-decrease in cACLD by ≥20% associated with a final LSM<20 kPa, or any decrease to <10 kPa. However, these rules have not yet been validated against direct clinical endpoints. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed cACLD patients (LSM≥10 kPa) with paired liver stiffness measurement (LSM) before (BL) and after (FU) HCV-cure by interferon-free therapies from 15 European centers...

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The National Liver Offering Scheme (NLOS) was introduced in the UK in 2018 to offer livers from deceased donors to patients on the national waiting list based, for most patients, on calculated transplant benefit. Before NLOS, livers were offered to transplant centres by geographic donor zones and, within centres, by estimated recipient need for a transplant. METHODS: UK Transplant Registry data on patient registrations and transplants were analysed to build survival on the list (M1) and survival post-transplantation (M2) statistical models...

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BACKGROUND: Hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) are the key drivers of fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), the fastest growing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma worldwide. HSCs are heterogenous, and a senescent subset of HSCs is implicated in hepatic fibrosis and HCC. Administration of anti-uPAR (urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor) CAR T cells depletes senescent HSCs and attenuates fibrosis in murine liver injury models, including MASLD. However, the comprehensive features of senescent HSCs in MASLD, as well as their cellular ontogeny have not been characterized...

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is the second most common primary liver cancer with high lethality. Clonorchis sinensis (C. sinensis) infection is an important risk factor for ICC. Here we investigated the clinical impact and underlying molecular characteristics of C. sinensis-infected ICC. METHODS: We performed single-cell RNA sequencing, whole exome sequencing, RNA-sequencing, metabolomics and spatial transcriptomics in 251 ICC patients from three medical centers...

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